The Next-Generation of Single-Stage-to-Orbit Spaceplanes with Radian's Richard Humphrey | E2022

Radian’s Richard Humphrey joins Alex (0s)

• Richard Humphrey, the co-founder of Radian Aerospace, joins the program to discuss the company's work on developing a spaceplane. (1m41s)
• Radian Aerospace is focused on creating a single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane, which aims to make getting into orbit faster, cheaper, and more efficient. (1m31s)
• Richard Humphrey has a background in aviation and was one of the founders of Kavu, a private airline established approximately 15 years ago. (1m51s)

Discussion on Richard Humphrey's aviation history and spaceplane development (2m5s)

• Richard Humphrey founded Radian in 2016, following his interest in aviation and space, which began in his childhood with activities like using a telescope and starting a rocketry program in Boy Scouts. (2m9s)
• His lifelong ambition to connect with rocket scientists led him to angel investing, where he met Livingston Holder, a trained astronaut and rocket scientist, who became his co-founder. (3m18s)
• The idea of developing a single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane emerged from discussions with Livingston Holder, as they believed the timing was right for such a project, despite previous challenges in the field. (3m50s)

Spaceplanes versus rockets: advantages and disadvantages (4m22s)

• Spaceplanes primarily launch horizontally, unlike rockets which launch vertically. This approach dates back to the 1960s and 70s, with significant efforts by NASA in the 1980s to develop reusable spacecraft. The goal was to create a vehicle that could perform missions, return, and fly again, which was not achieved with the Space Shuttle due to high refurbishment costs. (4m23s)
• A key advantage of spaceplanes is their ability to generate lift, which allows them to use less thrust than their weight during takeoff. This contrasts with rockets, which must have thrust greater than their weight to overcome gravity, consuming a large portion of fuel in the process. (5m51s)
• The payload capacity of spaceplanes is intentionally smaller, targeting a market niche between small satellite launchers and large rockets like the Falcon 9. This middle section, around 5,000 pounds, was chosen for specific market reasons. (6m58s)
• Single-stage-to-orbit spaceplanes carry less payload for every pound of vehicle and fuel compared to multi-stage rockets. This is because multi-stage rockets can restart the rocket equation with each stage, allowing for more efficient use of propulsion. (7m45s)
• Spaceplanes carry additional weight, such as wings and landing gear, all the way to space, which is a disadvantage compared to vertical rockets that do not carry these components. However, the lift generated by spaceplanes helps compensate for this weight. (8m29s)

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Spaceplane projects: historical context and current technology (10m20s)

• Livingston Holder, a co-founder of Radian, was involved in Boeing's X-33 spaceplane project, which was a multi-year effort under a NASA program. He recommended canceling the project due to technological limitations at the time. (10m22s)
• The X-33 project faced significant challenges, including the need to invent new materials and propulsion systems, such as metals beyond titanium and the unproven AeroSpike engine. The technology required was not available, and the project was costly with no clear path to success. (11m18s)
• At the time, computers were large and heavy, adding significant weight penalties to space systems. The project was also hindered by a cost-plus programming model, which was not suitable for such an innovative endeavor. (12m19s)
• The state of technology has since advanced, with smaller, faster, and lighter computers, and Radian believes that the necessary components for a spaceplane are now within reach. They aim to develop a spaceplane capable of reaching orbit and returning safely. (13m24s)
• Radian has raised a total of $32 million in seed capital, with $27.5 million from the last round. The company has been working on the project for about eight years, which poses challenges in aligning with the typical 10-year fund cycle of venture capital firms. (13m44s)

Funding challenges and venture capital interest in space industry (14m28s)

• During the early stages, it was discovered that the typical Venture Capital model did not align well with the needs of the space industry, as venture funds typically expected a minimum viable product (MVP) with revenue generation within a few years, which was not feasible for space ventures. (14m30s)
• Early investors in the space industry were primarily family offices and funds focused on disruptive thinking, such as Batshit Crazy Ventures, which aimed to invest in companies with the potential to change the world. (15m3s)
• The lead investor in the latest funding round was F-Prime Capital, a Fidelity group, whose investment thesis focused on identifying overlooked companies with the potential to make significant global impacts. (15m29s)
• As progress is made towards commercialization and achieving key milestones, there is increased interest from venture capital firms, and the company is now within the investment timelines of both venture capital and government programs. (16m20s)
• The company has received more attention and interest from venture capital firms as it approaches its initial operational capability (IOC), indicating a shift from having to actively seek funding to receiving inbound interest. (16m43s)

Radian 1 spaceplane's rocket sled launch mechanism and specifications (17m14s)

• The Radian 1 spaceplane utilizes a rocket sled launch mechanism, which is described as being larger than a minivan, approximately the size of four minivans, and equipped with three rocket engines. (18m1s)
• The rocket sled serves a dual purpose as it also functions as a fuel tank, transferring fuel to the spaceplane as it accelerates down the runway, allowing the spaceplane to be fully fueled upon takeoff. (18m46s)
• The spaceplane's engines are ignited simultaneously with the rocket sled's engines, ensuring efficient fuel usage during the launch process. (19m23s)
• The Radian 1 spaceplane is approximately the length of a Boeing 787 and as wide as a Boeing 737, measuring about 190 feet long, which is roughly 60 yards. (19m45s)

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• The spaceplane requires a track approximately 2 miles long, similar to a typical airport runway, to launch. This setup allows for safe takeoff and the ability to decelerate in case of an emergency, ensuring the vehicle can be secured without launching. (21m30s)
• The braking system for the spaceplane involves three different types of braking mechanisms, each covering different speed zones to bring the vehicle to a stop. (22m28s)
• The design of the spaceplane involves keeping the first stage on the ground, using horizontal momentum instead of vertical, which is more efficient and allows for easier reuse. This method avoids sending the first stage into the ocean or landing it on a barge, simplifying the process and reducing the need for extensive refurbishment. (22m41s)
• The vehicle is designed to carry only landing gear to space, which is significantly lighter than takeoff gear, making the system more efficient. (23m44s)
• The sled used in the Radian One project requires minimal refurbishment, primarily involving the replacement of brakes, as the rocket propulsion does not significantly harm the track. (24m3s)
• The sled is considered a civil engineering design effort and is not the most challenging aspect of the project, allowing the team to focus on more complex tasks first. (24m45s)
• The engines on the vehicle are reusable, and while some components like brakes may need refurbishment after each use, other parts have varying lifespans similar to aircraft components. (25m6s)

Reusability and refurbishment process of the Radian 1 spaceplane (25m28s)

• The Radian 1 spaceplane is designed to be reusable 100 times in a row, with the goal of being a 100-use vehicle (25m48s).
• The amount of refurbishment needed for the spaceplane will be determined in later stages, but it's expected that engines will have a lesser life than the airframe, similar to aircraft (26m2s).
• Consumables like brakes and tires will also need to be replaced, but the critical component is the thermal protection system (TPS) (26m8s).
• Unlike the fragile TPS used in the shuttle program, the Radian 1 spaceplane uses a more hardened and reusable TPS developed with the support of NASA and other industries (26m47s).
• The new TPS has been tested under plasma torches at NASA and has shown to have almost the same properties after flight as it does before flight, making it reusable for multiple uses (27m8s).
• The 100-use target for the spaceplane is a conservative estimate, with the team aiming to achieve 500 uses, but 100 is the publicly stated goal (28m18s).
• Engines will likely require refurbishment every 25-50 uses, but the economics of the company work with a 100-use target (28m34s).
• The break-even point for reuse is in the low 20s, making the Radian 1 spaceplane a game-changing and exciting development (28m52s).

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Radian 1 project updates: recent tests and future timeline (30m33s)

• Radian recently announced the completion of the first round of ground taxi tests for their prototype vehicle, the PF1, which stands for Prototype Flight Vehicle. (30m34s)
• The PF1 is a composite aircraft that underwent testing in Abu Dhabi, where high temperatures caused the tires to melt during initial tests. (31m27s)
• The testing process involved ensuring that all control surfaces and systems were functioning correctly, and the vehicle has performed some short hops off the ground, though it has not yet been flown to altitude. (31m43s)
• The next steps for Radian include further iterations and design work, with the current design being the ninth iteration, known as Avo 9. (32m4s)
• The design process involves computer modeling and wind tunnel testing, which have shown consistent results, indicating that the modeling is accurate. (32m30s)
• The PF1 is approximately 16 feet long, or about 5.5 meters, and is comparable in size to a small aircraft like a Cessna, though it is more durable. (33m20s)
• The cost of building the PF1 is not specified, but it involves significant investment in both hardware and development time. (34m1s)
• The development of the next-generation single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane by Radian is estimated to be a $4 million endeavor, with hardware costs comprising about 10-15% of the total. (34m11s)
• Radian has a robust test flight program in place, with the second prototype already on the drawing boards and preparations underway for its build. (34m40s)
• The company plans to conduct tests using a sled with jet engines to explore separation flight, emphasizing the need for iterative testing of complex technologies. (34m55s)
• Radian has been working on this project for approximately eight years, with the first two years focused on trade studies and business commitments. The team has since fully committed to the project, working intensively. (35m41s)
• The first flights of the full-sized Radian 1 spaceplane are expected in 2028 or 2029, with orbital flights anticipated by the end of the decade. (35m56s)
• Radian plans to raise over a billion dollars to reach the first flights, with additional funding required for scaling up. The business case is considered strong and conservative. (37m2s)
• The company has a high internal rate of return (IRR) and a large gross profit margin, indicating strong financial performance. (37m33s)
• The cost per human flight is expected to decrease by an order of magnitude while remaining profitable. (37m43s)
• The company has secured bookings for the first couple of years, with over $2 billion in commitments through letters of intent and hundreds of millions in hard orders. (37m52s)
• Funding for the market involves both private and public money, but the company emphasizes the importance of a business model that does not rely on government participation due to its unpredictability. (38m32s)

Commercial model and government interest in horizontal launches (39m0s)

• The commercial model for single-stage-to-orbit spaceplanes is viable without relying on defense or government contracts, although there is significant government interest in the technology. (39m8s)
• Many governments are interested in having domestic launch capabilities, especially since current options often require collaboration with countries like Russia or using limited launch sites. (39m54s)
• Horizontal launch capabilities offer unique advantages, such as the ability to launch from inland locations, which is beneficial for landlocked countries or those with geopolitical concerns. (40m51s)
• The space economy is experiencing a resurgence in launch frequency, with the United States leading in orbital launches, and there is ongoing discussion about the future demand for launches to support both defense and commercial needs. (41m41s)

Orbital launches: future demand and space economy implications (42m38s)

• The demand for orbital launches is expected to continue growing, driven by various factors including programs aimed at returning to the Moon, although this is not the focus of Radian. (42m39s)
• Satellite systems and constellations are anticipated to maintain their growth, contributing to the increasing demand for launches. (42m58s)
• The concept of "Space 3.0" is emerging, characterized by the development of human infrastructure in space, with nine space stations currently under development. (43m7s)
• Companies like Axiom are expected to excel in space station development, relying on heavy-lift vehicles like Starship for initial deployment, but requiring other vehicles for regular transport of people and supplies. Radian aims to fulfill this need. (43m33s)
• The low Earth orbit market for launches is projected to reach approximately $250 billion by the time Radian enters the market, indicating significant growth potential. (44m7s)
• There is a concern about an adversary achieving parity in space capabilities by 2027, which is a point of consideration for the industry. (44m32s)

Space launches: US and Chinese dominance, and potential for rapid cargo transport (44m49s)

• The current landscape of space launches is dominated by the United States and China, with Russian launches having significantly decreased and the European Union playing a minor role. (44m49s)
• There is a growing demand for space launches, particularly for defense applications that require frequent, large payload deliveries. (45m14s)
• Rapid point-to-point cargo transport is a potential future application of spaceplane technology, allowing for fast delivery of goods globally, although it is not the immediate focus. (45m29s)
• The feasibility of rapid cargo transport depends on economic viability and reliability, with current challenges including launch delays and the need for remote launch sites. (46m11s)
• This technology could be particularly useful for governments during conflicts or emergencies, enabling quick delivery of critical supplies or parts to remote or inaccessible locations. (47m2s)
• While rapid cargo transport is not the initial priority, it is a significant goal for the future development of spaceplane technology. (47m45s)

Private orbital flights: cost, feasibility, and space tourism (47m56s)

• Private jet travel is inherently expensive due to the costs associated with crew, maintenance, and fuel, and space travel is expected to be even more costly, potentially becoming a status symbol among the wealthy. (47m57s)
• The cost of launching a Radian spaceplane is likely to remain in the millions of dollars, although efficiencies and technological advancements over time could reduce costs. (48m38s)
• The Radian spaceplane has a large payload bay and includes weight from abort systems and life support, which could be reduced as technology becomes more reliable, potentially allowing for more passengers and lower costs. (49m2s)
• Future iterations of the Radian spaceplane could accommodate 10 to 20 passengers, which might bring the cost below a million dollars per launch, making space travel more accessible. (49m31s)
• The potential for space tourism exists as an additional business model, although the primary focus remains on other applications. The team at Radian consists of highly skilled professionals, including rocket scientists and engineers. (50m37s)
• The potential revenue from billionaires willing to pay $55 to $58 million for space travel is limited, as many of those individuals have already participated, and there are fewer left who are interested. (51m11s)
• The long-term goal is to target a larger market of individuals who can afford sub-$5 million space travel, which is expected to be a much bigger pool of potential customers. (51m37s)
• There is a strong personal and professional passion among the co-founders and team members of the company to make space travel accessible, driven by the desire to experience the "overview effect" and the belief that the world should progress towards making space travel possible for more people. (52m3s)
• The company is mission-driven, with a focus on developing single-stage-to-orbit spaceplanes that operate like aircraft, allowing for repeated flights and making space travel more routine and accessible. (53m6s)

Reducing orbital launch costs and the transformative potential of space access (53m19s)

• The future of space exploration is promising, with companies like Albo Space working on low orbit high-risk imaging and Axiom building private space stations. (53m25s)
• There is a company developing a water-based propulsion system that plans to source water from the Moon for orbital maneuvers. (53m33s)
• Reducing the cost of reaching orbit is crucial for accelerating advancements and making space exploration more accessible. (53m44s)
• Expanding human presence beyond Earth is important for survival, with aspirations to establish a presence on the Moon and potentially Mars. (54m1s)
• Low-cost access to space is expected to transform the availability of resources, as space holds abundant resources compared to Earth. (54m44s)
• The motivation for space exploration is to improve life on Earth, providing hope and optimism amidst current political and geopolitical challenges. (54m57s)