The AI Supercycle, California's AI Safety Bill Vetoed, and the Future of AR/VR | E2017

Jason and Alex kick off the show (0s)

• The speaker believes that now is the time to create apps for augmented reality (AR) because the hardware has become sufficiently advanced. (30s)
• The speaker believes that AR and virtual reality (VR) are about to reach a point of sufficient consumer adoption to make building on them worthwhile. (40s)
• The speaker and Alex Wilhelm will discuss startup news relevant to startup founders, venture capitalists, and technology enthusiasts. (1m36s)

AI regulation bill SB 1047 (1m46s)

• SB 1047, a California AI regulation bill, was vetoed. (1m52s)
• The veto of the bill is considered important and will be discussed further. (1m54s)
• A request was made by viewers to elaborate on a previous statement about an impending super cycle in business. (2m29s)

Defining the AI supercycle (2m34s)

• A technological supercycle occurs when a new, powerful, and transformative technology emerges, leading to a surge in innovation and the creation of new products and services. (2m35s)
• The AI supercycle is poised to be the most significant supercycle yet, as it will impact every aspect of our lives, including job displacement, team sizes, and the augmentation of human capabilities. (4m34s)
• For investors, the AI supercycle presents an unprecedented opportunity to invest in and support startups that have the potential to become the next generation of tech giants. (5m27s)

Concurrent supercycles: Self-driving cars and fusion (6m18s)

• Self-driving cars reaching a greater level of market penetration could revolutionize how goods and people are moved, where people live, and how people live. (6m29s)
• Fusion energy, if it works out, could create a super cycle with unlimited clean energy, water, and food. (7m10s)
• The combination of AI, robotics, fusion energy, and self-driving cars could lead to free transportation and fuel. (7m29s)

Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 (8m3s)

• To secure large clients and reduce customer churn, businesses need to meet compliance standards like SOC 2. (8m10s)
• Vanta helps companies achieve and maintain SOC 2 compliance, along with other standards like GDPR and HIPAA, enabling them to target larger customers. (8m38s)
• Using Vanta can save businesses hundreds of hours of work and up to 85% on compliance costs. (8m53s)

Detailed discussion on SB 1047's impact and reactions (9m8s)

• SB 1047, a California bill focused on regulating large AI models and mitigating catastrophic risks associated with AI, was vetoed by Governor Gavin Newsom. (9m34s)
• The bill aimed to regulate AI models with significant computing power or development costs, requiring companies to implement safety measures, disclose code and data sources, and face potential penalties for non-compliance. (12m46s)
• While some supported the bill's intention to address potential risks of AI, others criticized it for potentially hindering innovation and disproportionately impacting startups due to the high regulatory burden. (12m17s)

AI regulation in California: A broader perspective (17m14s)

• There have been attempts to regulate AI in California, but these attempts focus on preventing the misuse of the technology rather than regulating the AI models themselves. (17m24s)
• Regulating AI models is a mistake, and consumers can choose not to use products from companies whose AI practices they disagree with. (17m56s)
• While regulating the use of AI in specific harmful applications is reasonable, regulating AI based on philosophical viewpoints can hinder technological progress and stifle discussion. (19m36s)

CloudDevs - Visit for an unbeatable offer on hiring elite LATAM talent today. (19m54s)

• CloudDevs, a platform with a large pool of Latin American talent, offers access to over 10,000 rigorously vetted senior engineers. (20m13s)
• CloudDevs' talent pool extends beyond engineering to encompass non-technical roles such as accounting and graphic design. (20m25s)
• As part of a limited-time offer, listeners can utilize CloudDevs' services for a "pay what's fair" fee instead of the usual rate. (20m45s)

Industry leaders' reactions to SB 1047 veto and open source in AI (21m1s)

• Martin Casado, from the venture capital firm Andre Horowitz, expressed gratitude for the veto of California's SB 1047, believing it to be a positive step for AI policy and California's leadership in the field. (21m18s)
• There is a concern that relying solely on for-profit AI companies like OpenAI could lead to startups being exploited, similar to how Facebook's actions negatively impacted Zynga. (22m54s)
• Open source AI is encouraged as it fosters competition, leading to better products and innovation, with Meta's release of Llama cited as a positive example. (24m30s)

Rule-breaking in startup success and evaluating OpenAI's valuation (25m20s)

• Y Combinator selects founders based on their ability to break rules and be rebellious. (26m8s)
• OpenAI is expected to have $3.4 billion in earned revenue in 2023 and projects $1.6 billion in revenue in 2025. (30m47s)
• OpenAI's API calls are expected to generate 70-80% of its revenue, while consumer fees are projected to account for 20-30%. (34m15s)

Sprig - Visit to book a demo and get a $75 gift card. (36m47s)

• Sprig is a product experience platform that uses AI to help businesses improve their products and increase user satisfaction. (37m4s)
• Sprig collects real-time product experience data through heatmaps, replays, surveys, and feedback studies. (37m13s)
• Sprig's AI analyzes this data to provide actionable product recommendations, enabling businesses to increase revenue, improve user retention, and enhance user satisfaction. (37m29s)

Infrastructure ownership for tech giants and the future of startups in AI (38m0s)

• It is unlikely that a trillion-dollar tech company can be built in the near future without owning significant data center infrastructure. (38m15s)
• OpenAI's high burn rate, estimated to be around $500 million per month, is largely due to the costs of running massive data centers. (40m32s)
• Startups are unlikely to compete directly with tech giants in the area of large language models because of the immense capital expenditures required for data centers; instead, they will likely focus on niche applications built on top of open-source models. (44m55s)

AR and VR technology evolution and market potential (48m51s)

• Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies have a history of startups that emerged too early. (49m27s)
• A startup called Toni.dot showcased an AR camera demo at TechCrunch 50 in 2009, 15 years prior to the video's creation. (51m30s)
• The Toni.dot demo generated excitement but the technology did not gain traction, highlighting the importance of timing for startups in platform revolutions. (54m4s)

AR glasses' impact on daily life and mental health (55m38s)

• Google Glass was an early attempt at AR glasses that projected notifications into the user's eye. (56m8s)
• AR/VR technology has the potential to be beneficial in specific situations, such as translation, gaming, and navigation. (1h0m39s)
• Concerns exist regarding the potential negative impact of AR glasses on social interaction and privacy, similar to the issues associated with smartphone overuse. (1h2m39s)

AR vs. VR applications (1h5m59s)

• Immersive experiences are favored over augmented experiences. (1h6m11s)
• VR is compared to hardcore gaming with a niche audience, while AR is compared to casual gaming with a broader appeal. (1h6m32s)
• Casual games, potentially aligning with AR, have the potential to generate significant revenue, possibly exceeding that of hardcore games, which are likened to VR. (1h7m15s)

Audience Q&A (1h7m27s)

• Startups should focus on building a sustainable moat by prioritizing data, user experience, and brand development. (1h8m9s)
• Building trust in a brand is crucial for startups, as exemplified by Squarespace's approach of consistently adding new features and fostering a sense of reliability. (1h10m8s)
• Determining the key characteristics for startups to succeed in the current AI landscape is a complex question that venture capitalists are actively trying to answer. (1h10m55s)