Stanford ECON295/CS323 I 2024 I AI and Democracy, Lawrence Lessig

Analog AI and Democracy

• Roy Ferman Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, Lawrence Lessig, posits that artificial intelligence (AI) has long been integrated into human existence, citing David Runciman's book "The Handover" and the concept of analog AI. (6m40s)
• Lessig defines analog AI as any entity or institution with a purpose, acting instrumentally based on that purpose, using democracy as an example. (7m4s)
• Democracies and corporations can be viewed as analog artificial intelligences (AIs) with their own objectives and purposes, sometimes complementing and sometimes conflicting. (7m16s)
• Corporations, as analog AIs, are currently more effective at achieving their objectives than governments, even when those objectives clash. (8m43s)

Digital AI and its Impact on Democracy

• Digital AI, exemplified by social media algorithms, presents a new layer of control, with corporations aspiring to control it but often finding themselves less effective than they desire. (10m54s)
• This digital AI, using techniques like "brain hacking," exploits human vulnerabilities to maximize engagement and sell more ads, highlighting the potential dangers of its unchecked influence. (13m23s)
• AI can negatively impact democracy by manipulating users with polarized and hateful content, leading to a decline in rational discourse and informed decision-making. (14m29s)

Citizen Assemblies as a Potential Solution

• Citizen assemblies, composed of randomly selected and representative individuals, offer a potential solution by providing a protected space for informed deliberation and decision-making on critical issues, potentially mitigating the manipulative influence of AI. (17m10s)
• Citizen assemblies have been implemented in various countries, including Iceland, Ireland, and France, with varying degrees of success in influencing policy decisions and shaping public opinion on complex issues like constitutional reform, same-sex marriage, and climate change. (18m30s)
• The U.S. Constitution incorporates a commitment to citizen assemblies, such as grand juries and petit juries, which are randomly selected groups of people with the power to decide on prosecutions and convictions. (20m40s)

Vetocracy and its Impact on American Democracy

• Francis Fukuyama described the United States as a vetocracy, a system where a small number of actors can block decisions or actions. (26m3s)
• The U.S. government was designed with veto points, such as the House, Senate, President, and Supreme Court, which can prevent bills from becoming law. (26m27s)
• Since 2010, there has been a decline in the number of Republicans willing to discuss climate change due to the financial influence of the Koch brothers. (27m54s)
• The Chinese government criticizes the American democracy, referring to it as a "vetocracy" due to its inability to effectively address significant issues. (29m43s)
• The speaker believes that while some level of "vetocracy" might be beneficial, the current state of American democracy hinders progress on critical issues such as climate change, inequality, and healthcare. (32m16s)

The Evolution of Media and its Impact on Democracy

• There was a period of "broadcast democracy" from the 1960s to the mid-1980s when most Americans received news from one of three television stations. (34m46s)
• The development of modern polling techniques coincided with the rise of broadcast democracy. (36m37s)
• During the era of broadcast democracy, researchers observed that the American public responded rationally to the information they received about policy issues. (38m53s)
• The multiplication of news outlets, beginning with cable television and continuing with the internet, has led to a situation where only news junkies, who tend to be the most partisan, watch the news. This has resulted in news catering to these partisan viewers, further driving polarization. (39m12s)
• This polarization is exacerbated by the visibility of the most extreme individuals online, leading to a decline in faith in Americans' political judgment and, consequently, in democracy itself. (39m51s)
• The current media landscape, driven by engagement as a business model, incentivizes the production of addictive and polarizing content, much like the processed food industry prioritizes addictive ingredients. (42m46s)

The Influence of Money and Technology on Democracy

• Super political action committee (PAC) money is the most polarizing money in American politics and has a disciplining effect on politicians. (45m12s)
• Small-dollar donations are often raised by politicians through what is described as "clown show behavior" to gain visibility on social media and cable news. (46m20s)
• There is a concern that large language models (LLMs) are changing how people consume information, shifting from a pull to a push dynamic, as seen with platforms like Facebook. (47m36s)
• The incentives of advertising within search engines and LLMs can influence the information presented to users, potentially prioritizing advertiser interests over unbiased results. (49m39s)

AI and the Future of Work and Equality

• If AI eliminates the need for labor, capital will centralize, giving enormous power to those who possess it. (51m52s)
• From 1955 to 1975 in America, productivity and equality rose concurrently due to government intervention through antitrust enforcement, income redistribution, and labor unions. (52m14s)
• Without government intervention, an explosion in productivity due to AI will likely lead to wealth concentration rather than widespread equality. (53m26s)
• While AI presents an opportunity for reduced work hours and a higher quality of life, the current political climate lacks the ability to properly manage these advancements. (54m29s)

The Challenges of Information Bubbles and Political Polarization

• The constant separation of information sources leads individuals to exist in "bubbles" where they struggle to understand differing viewpoints. (57m16s)
• A recent poll revealed that a majority of Americans believe the Republican party is more protective of democracy, influenced by the narrative surrounding the events involving former President Donald Trump. (57m35s)
• China enforces strict regulations on social media platforms, particularly regarding content accessibility and usage time for young people, contrasting with the limited social media regulation in the United States. (1h0m3s)

Addressing the Business Model of Social Media

• The current business model of social media platforms is to keep users engaged for as long as possible, similar to encouraging overconsumption of food. (1h3m31s)
• An engagement tax that increases quadratically with the level of engagement could discourage the profitability of this model. (1h4m23s)
• While AI powers social media algorithms, AI tools like ChatGPT operate on a subscription-based model, which may align incentives better with user interests compared to advertising-driven models. (1h6m9s)

The Future of Democracy and AI

• AI can still have significant consequences, even if it is not the most advanced form. (1h7m43s)
• The ability of the United States government to address societal problems has diminished over time, despite past successes like the New Deal and the Voting Rights Act. (1h8m46s)
• There is a concern that the influence of corporations, particularly in the tech industry, is undermining democratic processes and limiting the government's ability to regulate them. (1h11m13s)
• Sam Altman sees himself as a historically significant figure like Winston Churchill. (1h13m5s)
• Deliberation is important for democracy and AI could be used to lower the cost of deliberation. (1h14m3s)
• Al Gore conceded the 2000 election after the Supreme Court ruling, while Donald Trump has not conceded the election. (1h18m33s)
• Donald Trump's candidacy was made possible by technology platforms that reward outrageous behavior. (1h19m25s)
• Some experts believe that current AI technology poses a significant risk, and that safety measures are insufficient. (1h20m37s)
• There is concern about the lack of governance surrounding AI and its potential impact. (1h21m17s)