Are We In An AI Hype Cycle?
26 Aug 2024 (23 days ago)
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Intro
- Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world.
- There are concerns about AI being an overinvestment.
- The speakers have collectively funded companies worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
What the media is saying about AI
- There is significant financial investment in AI, particularly in companies like Nvidia and their data centers.
- Some people are skeptical about the long-term profitability of AI, drawing parallels to the cryptocurrency boom and bust cycle.
- Market hysteria surrounding AI is likened to a cartoon depicting a frenzied sell-off of a stock due to perceived overvaluation. [117]
Where are we in the AI hype cycle?
- People new to their careers are questioning whether they should work in AI due to concerns about a potential hype cycle and the fear of repeating past mistakes.
- There is a disconnect between the perception of AI in Silicon Valley, where it is a dominant topic, and in other areas like Cambridge, where students are pursuing more traditional startup ideas.
- The current AI hype cycle is unique because it is reflected in both the startup world and the public stock market, with AI driving gains in major tech companies.
Where does the value come from?
- It is unclear which sectors of the AI industry will ultimately capture the most value, similar to the uncertainty surrounding the early days of the internet.
- The value of AI is evident, but concerns about a hype cycle stem from the rapid price increases observed in AI-related assets, such as Nvidia stock and valuations of AI startups.
- The current AI landscape evokes comparisons to the crypto boom, where companies achieved high valuations based on perceived potential rather than tangible results.
Valuing a tech company vs speculative assets
- Investors with substantial capital may invest heavily in promising individuals and teams, viewing them as focal points for attracting other talented individuals, as exemplified by the case of Stripe.
- The influx of investment in companies like Cognition Labs, Devon, and Harvey reflects the market's attempt to identify and support hubs of exceptional talent, potentially shielding these companies from competition.
- During a period of significant investment in cryptocurrency, two main approaches existed: asset speculation focused on rapid token launches and price increases, and the development of new protocols and decentralized versions of existing services by technically skilled teams.
Comparing the crypto hype cycle to AI now
- Many students from Harvard and MIT felt negatively impacted by the cryptocurrency hype cycle, either personally or through their friends' experiences.
- Coinbase's success stemmed from its function as an enabling technology for cryptocurrency, acting as a trusted marketplace for buying and selling.
- Unlike some Web3 products, AI products demonstrate clear utility, such as summarizing lengthy reports or automating tasks like accounts receivable, leading to tangible benefits.
Increased ARR
- The total revenue of companies when they apply to YC is 6 million dollars, and after 3-4 months, the revenue grows to 20 million dollars.
- Customers are recognizing the value of these companies and are willing to pay for their products or services.
- Companies are seeing a faster ramp-up to a million dollars in ARR than in the past, with some companies reaching 10 million in ARR within 12 months of launching their idea.
Why a hype cycle might be good for founders
- Overvalued assets, such as Nvidia, may indicate an ongoing hype cycle.
- Overvalued companies can raise capital cheaply, accelerating industry growth and benefiting the ecosystem. [1515]
- Companies with significant capital but no revenue face challenges in achieving profitability.
Early signs things are working
- Generative AI is being used by companies like PhotoRoom to generate images for e-commerce, demonstrating its profitability in specific verticals.
- AI agents are being used to automate workflows, such as in construction permit processing, potentially replacing entire teams and significantly reducing costs.
- There are significant opportunities for applying LLMs in industries that haven't been explored yet, highlighting the potential for future innovation and growth.
The fog of war
- The current state of the technology industry is compared to a "fog of war" where it is difficult to discern genuine advancements from hype.
- In the short term, businesses operate within this "fog of war," influenced by social proof and the persuasive narratives of individuals who may not possess genuine expertise.
- Over the long term, the true value of a company is determined by its ability to generate revenue by solving real customer problems and building lasting customer relationships.