Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

Bestie intros! (0s)

• Jason is asked to wake up Jamath, but it's revealed that Jamath is at the office, and Jason is currently in Jamath's house, wearing what appears to be Jamath's cashmere sweater with Rhino horn buttons (10s).
• Jamath is upset that Jason is wearing his sweater and asks him to take it off, but Jason compliments the sweater, saying it's soft (17s).
• The group discusses having lunch in the garden, and Jason is told to wear something simple, but he's already wearing the cashmere sweater (52s).
• Jamath mentions that he did some shopping and bought some soap, specifically mentioning that he prefers these soaps over the Ivory soap he has at his house (1m12s).
• The group is presented with a 1986 Chateau wine, which they decide to open, despite it being in a rack labeled "don't open" (1m55s).
• Jamath asks for only half of the wine to be poured, as he prefers the texture of the bottom half, and requests that the top half be poured into the garden (2m13s).
• The conversation shifts to Jamath's sleeping arrangements, and he mentions that he slept well at Chim's house the previous night, but may be staying at Sax's house that night (2m41s).
• Jamath jokes that when he's a guest, he likes to take something that's not bolted down as a "gift," and mentions that he previously took a love seat from Sax's designer (3m26s).

Announcement: Besties are hosting The All-In Holiday Spectacular in San Francisco on December 7th! Get tickets (3m49s)

• The All-In Holiday Spectacular will be held on December 7th in San Francisco at the Palace of Fine Arts, starting at 5:00 pm, with tickets available at allin.com/events (4m19s).
• The event will feature a stage show with the hosts and guests, followed by an open bar, food trucks, a DJ, and a casino party, creating a Winter Wonderland after-party (4m58s).
• The hosts are excited to have attendees join them at the Palace of Fine Arts for what promises to be an incredible time (5m12s).
• One of the hosts, SX, is hesitant about attending the event, but the others are trying to persuade him, even joking about loading him into a van to bring him to the event (5m41s).
• SX's favorite holiday is the pandemic, which he celebrates for six months every year by not seeing anyone (6m30s).
• The hosts discuss their favorite foods, with one of them ordering morel mushrooms, but being told they are not in season, so they settle for black truffles instead (6m52s).
• They also discuss the quality of a picana cut of meat, with one host claiming it is better than a ribeye or New York strip when cooked properly (7m9s).
• The hosts praise the chef, Sean, for his cooking skills, particularly with the picana and a burnt sugar apple tart (8m11s).
• They also give a shout-out to Raul's and Balazar, two of the best steakhouses in Manhattan (8m50s).

Macro and markets: making sense of unique asset diversions (9m8s)

• The current market situation is being described as an interesting and challenging enigma, with a diversion in assets that hasn't been seen in some time, causing market commentators, analysts, and economists to try to figure out what's going on and why (9m14s).
• US Treasury yields have spiked up due to bonds declining in price, with the 10-year yield nearly hitting 3.5 in September and now over 4 and a quarter as of the morning of the recording (9m44s).
• Gold prices have spiked, moving from around $2,000 an ounce at the start of the year to $2,750 an ounce, making it one of the best-performing assets of the year (10m12s).
• Despite the market situation, the S&P 500 is up considerably and has been on an endless run-up, reaching all-time highs (10m24s).
• Bitcoin's price is also being observed, but it's noted that more assets have moved into gold than Bitcoin (10m38s).
• The US dollar complex is thriving, with the US dollar being strong, and backend yields are rising (11m1s).
• The put-call skew in the bond market shows that people own more puts than calls, indicating a repositioning of the financial infrastructure from a toss-up election to a Trump win (11m22s).
• The Trump economic plan is expected to drive better growth than the Harris plan, leading to a potential increase in inflation and a higher risk premium in a high-growth environment (11m55s).
• The economic distribution of outcomes is now tilted overwhelmingly to a Trump win, based on the repositioning of tens of trillions of dollars of self-interested financial actors (12m40s).
• If Trump wins, it's expected that gold and Bitcoin prices will go up, the short-term economic upside for the economy will be reflected in higher equity prices, and long-term rates will be pushed out, making the inflation picture murkier (13m7s).
• A Trump win in the short term could lead to more economic growth, but in the medium term, inflation may increase, making assets like gold and Bitcoin attractive as hedges against inflation (13m36s).
• Paul Tudor Jones is long on gold, Bitcoin, and commodities, as he believes all roads lead to inflation, and suggests a combination of these assets and the NASDAQ could be a good investment strategy (13m59s).
• Jones also mentions that most young people find their inflation hedges via the NASDAQ, and he would own zero fixed income if he had the choice, instead opting for very short-term instruments (14m22s).
• The market is currently afraid that inflation is not under control and may resurface, causing the Fed to pivot from its pivot and raise interest rates, which is why Tudor Jones doesn't want to own any treasuries (14m43s).
• Stan Druckenmiller has a 20% short position on US treasuries, betting that there are long-term inflation pressures and rates will have to rise, and the 10-year T-bill yield has risen by 60 basis points since the Fed cut rates on September 18th (15m5s).
• The recent rate cut by the Fed is seen as too big, and the market is not liking it, as it was contradictory to the Fed's rhetoric that the economy is doing well, and the cut may have been overly precipitous (15m38s).
• The interest on the national debt has gone parabolic in the last couple of years, reaching a run rate of $1.35 trillion per year, which is around 20-25% of federal revenue, and this continues to increase (17m1s).
• The US fiscal picture is concerning, with rapidly increasing debt service costs and a murky inflation picture, leading the bond markets to price in higher interest rates for longer, which may not be resolved by rate cuts (17m30s).
• The market fundamentals, including the national debt service, are not favorable, and the current interest rates may not decrease to 2% as previously expected (17m38s).
• Paul Tudor Jones and Dr. Miller are warning about inflation and shorting US treasuries due to the current economic situation (18m14s).
• Neither party in the presidential election is expected to drive a different outcome in terms of federal spending, with reports suggesting an additional $10 trillion in spending in the next administration (18m39s).
• The increased spending is likely to find its way into equities, contributing to their high value, rather than trickling down to the general population (19m5s).
• The expected outcome of the election, regardless of the winner, is likely to be the same, with one party cutting taxes and spending $8-10 trillion, and the other party spending $10 trillion and possibly raising taxes (19m27s).
• A potential consequence of the increased spending and debt is a cataclysmic contraction in white-collar employment in the United States over the next 4-10 years, exacerbating social tension (19m39s).
• The record-low unemployment and rising salaries of the past 5-10 years may come to an end, leading to austerity measures and belt-tightening in future administrations (20m10s).
• The interest on the national debt alone is expected to cost every American $3,500 per year, which is a significant burden (20m37s).
• The increased spending and debt may create a massive bubble in equities, and the growth of big companies like Uber, Airbnb, Google, and Facebook may not be sustainable (20m52s).
• Companies are growing with static team sizes, leading to increased efficiency and profitability, which may result in a "renters" story where people with equities and property will do well, while those without will struggle, especially if they are highly leveraged (21m15s).
• Total US household, corporate, and government debt is approximately $68 trillion, with household debt at $18 trillion, corporate debt at $11 trillion, state and local government debt at $3 trillion, and federal debt at $36 trillion (21m57s).
• Assuming a 6% average interest rate, the US spends around $4 trillion per year to service the debt, which is 15% of the $29 trillion economy, indicating a highly leveraged system (22m17s).
• Global leverage is becoming a crisis, with countries like the UK, France, and Brazil facing budget deficits and struggling to reduce debt, leading to higher taxes and interest rates (22m47s).
• The UK is waiting on a budget proposal with higher taxes to address a 4.4% budget deficit, while France is struggling to reduce its deficit from 6% to 5% of GDP and is raising taxes on large companies (22m54s).
• Brazil is facing a major budget crisis, with states owing $130 billion to the federal government, accelerating inflation, and rising interest rates (23m44s).
• The global leverage problem may explain the flight to safety in assets like gold and Bitcoin, and will present real struggles for global economies (23m59s).
• The US dollar's reserve status may be at risk, and the Federal Reserve may need to buy and monetize debt by printing money, as there are no other buyers, with China's holdings of US treasuries decreasing in recent years (24m11s).
• Central banks are selling US Treasuries and buying gold, with the Federal Reserve being the buyer of last resort, which could lead to inflation and a surge in the value of assets that benefit from inflation, such as gold, Bitcoin, and equities (24m48s).
• Investing in assets that benefit from inflation is a strategy, but attempting to time the market is likely to result in losses due to slippage and false decisions (25m48s).
• Bitcoin is considered a breakout asset and a resounding inflation hedge for the next 50 or 100 years, with gold being used less as a rational economic insurance policy (26m6s).
• The outcome of the US presidential election, specifically a potential Kamala Harris win, could reverse current market trends and lead to a repositioning and rebalancing of assets (26m39s).
• A strategy of keeping a low profile and continuing to build and invest, rather than trying to time the market or make specific bets, is recommended (27m1s).
• The key question is where the money from increased government spending will flow, and whether this will change the types of assets owned (27m17s).

Gen Z's economic cultural movements (27m23s)

• The current economic situation is leading to interesting cultural movements, with people divided between those who believe in capitalism and free markets, and those who don't, as well as those who see themselves as victims versus creators (27m35s).
• Young people are looking at financial markets as a way to control their destiny and retire early, with some joining the anti-war movement or the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement, and using platforms like Robin Hood or Coinbase to make trades (27m56s).
• Another group of people are anti-work, with some opting out of the traditional capitalist system and choosing to live with parents or others, tighten their belts, and enjoy life (28m28s).
• Many young people no longer view their job as their only path to economic independence, and are instead actively trading on the side, using platforms like Robin Hood or Coinbase, to try to make money and achieve financial independence (29m29s).
• This represents a shift in how people approach work, with some separating their job from their pursuit of financial independence, and instead speculating to make money (29m54s).
• This change is particularly evident in younger generations, with some "quiet quitting" and rejecting capitalism, while others are trying to take control of their financial lives through trading and investing (30m26s).
• There is a notable difference in the psychological approach to work and finance between people aged 25 and older, and those under 25, with younger people more likely to be open to new approaches to achieving financial independence (30m50s).
• The current generation of 18-21-year-olds in the workforce are highly motivated and hungry for success, approaching their jobs differently than those in their late 20s and early 30s, who may lack a similar level of motivation (31m3s).
• The younger generation is also the first to not have significant college debt, which may contribute to their differing approach to work and career choices (31m19s).
• A significant number of young people, 57% of Gen Z, aspire to be influencers as their primary career, with this number continuing to grow (32m1s).
• This desire for influencer status is driven by a desire for independence and a perception that the system is rigged against them, particularly for those with significant student debt (32m47s).
• It is advised that young people should be cautious of designing their careers around becoming influencers, as it is a highly unlikely and competitive field, and instead focus on finding careers they are passionate about where they can add value (33m3s).
• The idea of becoming an influencer is compared to becoming a rock star or movie actor, with similar low odds of success, and it is suggested that the world does not need a large proportion of the population to become influencers (33m15s).
• The temptation to pursue a career in content creation and influencing is acknowledged, but it is emphasized that this path is not a reliable or sustainable career choice for most people (34m1s).
• It is recommended that young people recognize the difference between building a personal brand and creating content as a byproduct of a successful career, rather than pursuing influencing as a primary career goal (34m21s).
• Influencers often gain popularity without having done anything interesting or productive, and people should focus on doing something productive before expecting others to listen to them (34m41s).
• Many people are making money as content creators, with some earning low thousands of dollars per month, and combining this with gig economy work can provide a path to independence from a system that has no loyalty to individuals (35m12s).
• The gig economy and content creation can provide an alternative to traditional employment, where individuals feel they have no loyalty from corporations and can be laid off or dragged back into the office at any time (35m20s).
• Having a side hustle can make individuals antifragile, with other sources of income and the ability to tell their boss to leave, which is a smart move for young people (36m18s).
• Building a personal brand, being independent, and creating things in the world can be beneficial, but it's also important to consider the potential downsides of having an escape hatch or side hustle (36m34s).
• Having a side hustle may not necessarily lead to greatness, as it can allow individuals to quit before they reach their full potential, and it's often necessary to push through challenges and difficult environments to achieve success (37m28s).
• The idea of "burning the boats" and committing fully to a startup or endeavor can be beneficial, as it forces individuals to push through challenges and realize their capabilities (37m57s).
• To truly discover one's capabilities, it's essential to take risks and put oneself in challenging situations, rather than constantly relying on a safety net (38m3s).

Reallocating assets for a new period of constraints (38m28s)

• Markets are facing a looming budget crisis and the election cycle, leading to repositioning in portfolios, with some trying to sell SAS startups in secondary markets but finding few bids, and others receiving offers with significantly reduced discounts, such as from 80% to 25% (38m29s).
• The current market situation has led to a reevaluation of asset classes, with treasuries being an easy one to avoid due to their 4.2% yield for 10 years, which may not be attractive with looming inflation and potential debt crisis (39m48s).
• Equities are at an all-time high, partly due to the FED's telegraphed rate cuts, but expectations have been coming down, and some experts, like Dr. Miller and Paul Tudor Jones, predict an extended period of higher interest rates, which could be bad for equities (40m7s).
• However, if central banks monetize the debt by buying outstanding treasuries, it could support inflation and introduce capital into the system, potentially leading to a scenario where equities and gold go up while fixed income goes down (41m8s).
• Commodities, including gold, are seen as a safe haven asset, but other commodities used in production cycles, such as those for food, energy, and goods, may be more fungible and attractive, with commodity-linked businesses being a potential investment opportunity (41m45s).
• Businesses whose revenue or profit grows with the underlying commodity price will outperform other businesses that struggle to raise prices, pay higher labor costs, or deal with higher costs of goods sold, especially commodity-linked businesses that make a fixed margin on the underlying commodity price, such as mining or agricultural commodity trading businesses (42m5s).
• Owning a commodity is not the same as owning a productive asset that generates yield, and owning a business that makes a profit and creates value is a more attractive option, especially if the profit grows with underlying inflationary pressure (42m37s).
• The Buffett indicator, which is the total value of the Wilshire 5000 divided by GDP, is a reliable measure of where equities are and where they're about to go, and it has historically indicated a meaningful retrade after reaching a short-term high (43m5s).
• The current Buffett indicator reading is at an absolute new high, suggesting that equities are likely to be cheaper before they become more expensive (43m39s).
• The price-earnings ratio is at the high end of normal, around 25, which is concerning given the risks looming over the next 10 years (44m1s).
• Investing in an equity and investing in a bond are opposite, with bonds providing fixed income payments that can be debased by high inflation, while stocks provide earnings that can be hedged against inflation through price increases (44m37s).
• The market clearing price for government-issued debt over the next decade is unlikely to be 4%, and could easily be 6%, 7%, or 8%, which is a scary prospect (45m15s).
• The difference between a bond and a stock is that a bond provides fixed income payments, while a stock provides earnings that can be adjusted for inflation, but both are similar in that they are affected by inflation (45m26s).
• Rising interest rates are expected to negatively impact equities and real estate, as higher discount rates make borrowing more expensive, and the value of people's homes may decrease (45m50s).
• The period since 2008 has been characterized as a "consequence-free environment" where the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low, and the federal government spent freely, but this may be coming to an end (46m10s).
• The normalization of emergency conditions, trillion-dollar deficits, and quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve has propped up US bonds and the bond market, but this may no longer be sustainable (46m40s).
• The US government may be entering an era of consequences, where it can no longer push one aspect of its balance sheet without giving up on something else, and this could lead to higher interest rates and reduced spending (47m10s).
• Higher interest rates would make it more expensive for the government to borrow, and could lead to austerity measures, similar to those seen in Europe, where governments had to cut spending and reduce handouts (47m54s).
• On the equity side, companies have been able to cut spending and increase earnings, and this trend is expected to continue, but individuals may also need to adopt austerity measures, such as delaying purchases and reducing spending (48m34s).
• The upcoming election is focused on who can give more "free stuff," but the market is indicating that regardless of who gets elected, the deficit will likely increase, and someone will need to take a more rational approach to economic policy (49m6s).
• The economic policies of the US presidential candidates are being compared to those of Argentina's president, Javier Milei, who implemented austerity measures that reduced monthly inflation from 25% to 3.5% but led to a 1.7% contraction in the economy and rising unemployment (49m37s).
• The US faces a challenge in balancing low unemployment and low inflation, as high federal spending and debt may lead to inflation, while cutting spending too quickly could cause unemployment to spike (50m15s).
• The spending packages proposed by the Republican and Democratic candidates are viewed differently by the markets, with the Trump package seen as more stimulative to long-term economic growth and thus increasing inflation risk (51m14s).
• The front end of the yield curve has undergone a significant repositioning in terms of risk and bets over the last 30 days, reflecting the market's changing views on the candidates' policies (51m25s).
• Elon Musk's potential ability to streamline the government could be beneficial in reducing wasteful spending and demonstrating the effectiveness of spending less and cutting regulation (51m59s).
• Cutting government spending could potentially unlock resources for the private sector, leading to increased efficiency and stimulation of the private sector, particularly in an economy with full employment (53m5s).
• Cutting government workers would be painful, but with a strong economy and job creation, it's a good time to make these cuts as the private sector can reabsorb the workers, and it's better to make these cuts now rather than waiting until it becomes more difficult (53m26s)

Election update: Data leans Trump as we enter the home stretch (53m52s)

• The current data, including polls, prediction markets, and early voting numbers, suggest that Donald Trump is likely to win the election, with polls showing him up by 2-3% nationally (53m52s).
• Trump's lead in the popular vote could translate to a landslide victory, as the Republicans have a slight Electoral College advantage, and Vice President Harris would need to win the popular vote by more than 2% to have a chance at winning the Electoral College (54m36s).
• State-by-state polling shows Trump advancing in every battleground state, with momentum in his favor, and he is now ahead slightly in every battleground state according to RCP (55m5s).
• Early voting numbers in states that have released data show Republicans tracking well ahead of where they were in 2020, although it's unclear if this means Republicans are just shifting their votes to earlier voting (55m14s).
• Nate Silver wrote an essay published by the New York Times, stating that the election is a 50/50 tossup, but his gut tells him it's going to be Trump (55m42s).
• Prediction markets, including Poly Market and Ki, have moved sharply in favor of Trump, with a nearly 2:1 ratio in his favor, although some experts are skeptical of these markets due to potential manipulation (56m2s).
• A French trader has bet $45 million on Trump on Poly Market, making him a significant player in the market, although it's unclear what percentage of the market this represents (57m1s).
• The US presidential election is in its final stretch, with 12 days left, and the rhetoric and tone of the comments being made by both sides are becoming increasingly nasty and inflammatory (58m39s).
• There have been attempts at October surprises, with some Republicans making claims about the Democratic side, but these claims are not considered credible and may be part of a larger trend of fake news and deepfakes (57m56s).
• The tone of the election is concerning, with both sides making personal attacks and accusations, and the outcome is likely to be divisive, with half the country hating the president and half the country feeling like democracy is over (1h0m28s).
• The mainstream media is seen as responsible for contributing to the divisive tone of the election (1h0m50s).
• The election outcome is uncertain, and it is possible that there will be a period of reconciliation and reconstruction needed in the US after the election (59m1s).
• The tone of the election is different from what is needed for the country to move forward, with a focus on personal attacks and accusations rather than constructive dialogue (59m42s).
• The comments made by both sides are becoming increasingly extreme, with some Democrats saying that Trump's win would be the end of democracy, and some Republicans making personal attacks on Kamala Harris (59m54s).
• The use of social media is seen as a potential source of misinformation and fake news, and people are advised to be careful with the information they consume (58m32s).
• The election is seen as a toss-up, with both sides having their strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome is uncertain (57m47s).
• The media's portrayal of Donald Trump has led to a significant portion of the country being terrified of him, with some comparing him to Hitler, which is seen as ridiculous hyperbole (1h0m51s).
• The Trump-Hitler rhetoric is considered extreme and not par for the course in politics, unlike accusing opponents of lying, which is more common (1h1m35s).
• The current state of the country is considered nasty, but there is optimism that it will improve after the election, with some predicting a solid victory for Trump based on polls, prediction markets, and early voting (1h2m12s).
• The Trump campaign is seen as steady, while the Kamala Harris campaign is throwing out different messages, including going back to the "dark Brandon" type messaging, which is not working (1h2m43s).
• The Kamala Harris campaign initially tried to reposition her as a change agent and transformational candidate, but this messaging has worn off as she has been unable to explain what she would change, leading to a perception that she is a continuation of Joe Biden (1h3m5s).
• The public does not want a continuation of Biden, and the Harris campaign is now frantically trying to reposition itself, but its anti-Trump messaging is not working (1h4m0s).
• The country's long-term interest rates have spiked, which is a significant development [no timestamp mentioned in the text, but this point is mentioned in the title].
• The election is in its final stretch, and the campaigns are acting accordingly, with the Trump campaign being steady and the Harris campaign being more erratic (1h2m42s).
• Influencer mania is mentioned in the title, but not discussed in the provided text [no timestamp mentioned in the text].
• Saving Starbucks is also mentioned in the title, but not discussed in the provided text [no timestamp mentioned in the text].
• If looking back at the behavior of the campaigns, it's easy to see which one feels confident and which one is in a panic (1h4m13s).
• If advising Kamala Harris when she became the nominee, the advice would have been to have a speedrun primary and let democracy play out, which was a big mistake when the Democrats lost (1h4m30s).
• The reason people believe that Trump is an existential threat to democracy is due to his actions on January 6th, which was discussed in episode 16 of the All-in podcast (1h4m56s).
• The episode discussed how Trump was trying to overthrow the election results in a non-democratic fashion, and it's essential to have compassion and intellect to separate oneself from the moment and potentially change one's mind (1h5m28s).
• The speaker has changed their mind about Trump's actions on January 6th, and now believes that he didn't incite much of anything, but acknowledges that others may still agree with the original assessment (1h5m54s).
• As the election enters its home stretch, the side that's losing tends to panic, and it's essential to consider the potential presidency under Trump, including the influence of a real vice president, RFK, and Elon Musk (1h6m52s).
• In contrast, if Harris wins, the trend will likely continue as seen under four years of Biden (1h7m32s).
• The losing side tends to turn on itself as the election nears its end (1h7m45s).
• The media is starting to turn on Kamala Harris, with even traditionally reliable sources pushing back, as seen in the CNN town hall where David Axelrod seemed to throw her under the bus (1h8m15s).
• The goal of the mainstream media has been to keep the public in the heat of the moment for four years, constantly referencing January 6th, but voters have learned a lot since then (1h9m3s).
• New information has come to light, such as Twitter censoring President Trump's tweets telling people to go home and protest peacefully, which has changed the narrative (1h9m21s).
• The media's portrayal of events can greatly influence public perception, as seen in the George Floyd riots where the media could have portrayed Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz as the party of riots if they had chosen to (1h10m11s).
• The events of four years ago are now priced into the stock, and voters want to know what candidates would do on current issues such as immigration, inflation, and the economy (1h10m54s).
• According to polling, Trump has a decisive advantage on the issues that matter to voters, and Kamala Harris cannot explain how she would differ from Joe Biden (1h11m10s).
• The importance of supporting whoever wins the election to do the best they can for all Americans is emphasized, as the country may not survive multiple cycles of division and spending (1h8m42s).

Is Starbucks fixable? Or has it hit market saturation? (1h19m1s)

• Starbucks has suspended its guidance for 2025 after reporting a 7% decline in same-store sales and a 25% drop in earnings per share year-over-year, with CEO Brian Nickell attributing the decline to a need to refocus on the customer experience (1h19m3s).
• The company plans to improve the throughput experience and quality, make Starbucks a desirable career choice for baristas, and enhance the overall customer experience (1h20m1s).
• The decline in sales and customer satisfaction is attributed to the shift in focus from the customer experience to efficiency and cost-cutting measures after the departure of founder Howard Schultz (1h20m46s).
• Schultz's biography, "Pour Your Heart Into It," highlights his obsession with user experience and innovation, such as writing customers' names on cups and empowering baristas (1h20m58s).
• The current state of Starbucks stores, with long lines and a focus on app ordering, has led to an impersonal experience and a decline in the quality of the "third space" that Schultz aimed to create (1h21m48s).
• The company's expansion of its menu to include more sugary drinks has also contributed to its decline, with some arguing that Starbucks has become a seller of sugar rather than a coffee company (1h22m37s).
• Starbucks' business model has shifted from its core product of fine Italian roast and espresso to a variety of high-sugar beverages and food items, making it challenging to return to its core without losing customers who prefer the newer offerings (1h22m39s).
• The company's current state is likened to an ice cream shop for kids, with a similar sugar profile, and while it's a great place for breakfast, the experience has strayed from its original intent (1h23m15s).
• Howard Schultz's successor, Howard Nichols, has outlined a plan to address staffing issues, simplify the menu, refine mobile ordering, and reestablish Starbucks as a community coffee house (1h23m39s).
• Nichols' approach involves simplifying the menu and operations, which may lead to faster turnaround and a better experience, but could also result in less variety and potentially drive away loyal customers (1h24m24s).
• The company's struggles may be a sign of its maturity as an iconic consumer brand, and its current product mix may not be enough to adapt to changing consumer habits, particularly with the rise of glucose-lowering medications (GLPs) (1h24m56s).
• A comparison of Eli Lilly's stock performance (a manufacturer of GLPs) to Starbucks' stock performance over various time periods suggests that the trend is shifting towards anti-sugar and GLPs, which could be a significant challenge for Starbucks (1h25m6s).
• The existential issue for Starbucks may be the need to reset to a smaller footprint and a different product portfolio that aligns with the changing consumption habits of its loyal customers (1h25m40s).
• Starbucks is experiencing a decline in same-store sales, which may be attributed to the adoption of healthier eating habits, such as those promoted by GP1s, a dietary approach that emphasizes whole foods and limits sugary drinks (1h26m20s).
• The core value proposition of Starbucks is to provide a "third space" where customers can socialize and enjoy a cup of coffee, but the sugary drinks that are a significant part of their menu may be falling out of fashion (1h27m12s).
• The primary objective of any corporation, including Starbucks, is to maximize shareholder value by growing profits over time, which can be achieved by increasing revenue through three levers: maximizing brand, coverage, and price (1h27m21s).
• Starbucks has likely reached a maximum revenue point, having maximized its brand, coverage, and price, making it challenging to continue growing same-store sales (1h28m14s).
• Apple is cited as an example of a company that has faced a similar dilemma, having maximized its brand, coverage, and price, and is now struggling to find new ways to grow revenue (1h28m16s).
• To drive more profits, Starbucks may need to focus on reducing costs and improving operational efficiency, rather than relying on increasing revenue (1h29m11s).
• However, the economic pressure from shareholders may push Starbucks to continue focusing on sugary drinks, which have higher average revenue per user (ARPU) than traditional coffee (1h29m24s).
• Starbucks is a mature company with a structural problem, as it should be a $20 billion asset, but its multiples are compressed due to competitive pressure from companies like Dunkin' Donuts and Pete's Coffee, as well as competition from orthogonal planes like GP1s (1h29m49s).
• Apple, on the other hand, can continue to maximize free cash flow generation and allocate it to shareholders via buybacks for another decade or so, despite being a mature company, due to its lack of competitive pressure (1h30m24s).
• The iOS 18 software is considered janky and has terrible design, with examples including the Do Not Disturb feature having two images, one above the other, which shows a level of sloppiness and lack of care (1h30m51s).
• Upgrading to a new iPhone can be a complicated and time-consuming process, taking up to four hours, which can lead to monopolistic behavior where users stay with the same platform or device due to the difficulty of switching (1h31m37s).
• Both Apple and Starbucks are victims of their own success, having reached market saturation and natural audience, and are struggling to find adjacencies and figure out what to do next (1h32m7s).
• The photos app on the iPhone has been changed, but the new interface is considered terrible, and users are looking for ways to go back to the old version, which is a sign of failure as a product manager (1h32m56s).
• Amazon and other services like eBay and Craigslist have gotten it right by making subtle changes to their interfaces, which is a lesson that Apple could learn from (1h32m33s).
• The discussion touches on various topics, including Apple and its control center, which is considered confusing and in need of improvement (1h33m2s).
• The conversation shifts to a discussion about Starbucks, with a guest, Saaks, participating in the conversation and sharing his thoughts on the company's maturity and growth (1h33m25s).
• Saaks mentions that he is not an expert on Starbucks but enjoys their products, specifically ordering an Americano with a splash of oat milk (1h33m46s).
• The conversation takes a humorous turn, with jokes about ordering oat milk at Mar-a-Lago and the incompatibility of being a "Maga" supporter while consuming oat milk (1h34m8s).
• The discussion also mentions a personal anecdote about a sweater and a visit to Mar-a-Lago, with a lighthearted and playful tone (1h34m20s).
• The conversation wraps up with a mention of lunch plans and a joke about someone's behavior, leading to a lighthearted and humorous exchange (1h34m41s).
• The episode concludes with a message of appreciation for the audience and a farewell from the host, who is filling in for Jcal (1h35m0s).
• The host thanks the audience and signs off, mentioning that they will be meeting up with someone in a couple of hours (1h35m39s).
• The conversation ends with a humorous comment about letting winners ride and a mention of the "Rainman" (1h35m43s).
• The host also mentions opening source material to fans, who have responded enthusiastically, and signs off with a lighthearted message (1h35m50s).
• The conversation concludes with a humorous comment about getting a room and releasing tension, and a final message of "I'm going all in" (1h36m16s).