Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024

Friedberg intros the eVTOL panel! (0s)

• The next panel will feature a quick introduction to three electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle companies. (0s)
• The introductions will include a video about Joby, followed by Adam from Archer introducing his company, and then Brian from Wisk. (10s)
• After the individual introductions, a conversation will take place. (17s)

Joby Aviation Intro (20s)

Archer Aviation Intro (2m1s)

• Archer was founded in 2018 with the goal of changing the way the world moves, addressing the issue of urban congestion that results in the average American being stuck in traffic for dozens of hours per year (2m6s).
• The company has developed Midnight, an all-electric aircraft designed to fly back-to-back trips over congested cities, taking off vertically like a helicopter and transitioning to fly like an airplane (2m37s).
• Midnight is designed to be piloted and carry four passengers, with the ability to travel at speeds of up to 150 mph (2m46s).
• Since 2018, Archer has made significant progress in bringing the Midnight aircraft to market, with a nearly 10,000-person team designing, building, and testing key enabling technologies for electric aviation (2m58s).
• The company has raised nearly $1.5 billion to support its goals, with the aim of achieving commercial launch and high-volume manufacturing (3m8s).
• Archer's high-volume manufacturing facility in Georgia is set to open later this year, and the company has partnered with Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, Ram, and Maserati, which has invested nearly $300 million to date (3m35s).
• United Airlines has ordered up to $1.5 billion of Midnight aircraft, and Archer is working with Southwest to offer passengers 3-hour multimodal journeys across California (3m43s).
• The company has an industry-leading contract with the Air Force and recently delivered its first aircraft as part of that contract (3m59s).
• Archer has announced plans for flight networks connecting Sofi Stadium, USC, LAX, and beyond in Los Angeles (4m3s).

Wisk Aero Intro (4m43s)

• The aircraft designed by Wisk and other companies take off vertically like helicopters, transition onto the wing, and fly like an aircraft, marking a significant step towards making flying cars a reality (4m50s).
• The technologies that enable these aircraft to fly, such as electrification and autonomy, were just starting to become possible when Larry Page first joined the mission (5m9s).
• Wisk has built the enabling technologies in electrification and autonomy, allowing the company to design and build multiple generations of aircraft, with Generation 6 being the first candidate for FAA certification of a passenger autonomous aircraft (5m17s).
• Generation 6 is designed to operate without a pilot on board, taking advantage of prior technologies developed through previous iterations (5m37s).
• Two key technology trends used to create these aircraft are motors and batteries, similar to those used in cars and cell phones, and autonomy, which involves multiple components such as sensors, software, and computation (5m50s).
• Autonomy requires the ability to operate and supervise an aircraft from the ground, display information safely, and use sensors to create software and computation for autonomous flight (6m7s).
• Wisk uses aircraft to test deployment and networks, having flown the first electric VTOL aircraft in the Los Angeles area last year and demonstrating the possibilities of these aircraft (6m41s).
• The company is also working on the human interface with air traffic control, using existing piloted helicopters to perfect algorithms for tasks like detecting and avoiding other traffic (7m1s).
• Wisk's aircraft must be able to fly without GPS, as it may not be reliable in certain environments, and the company is working to develop this capability (7m43s).
• Once the technology stack is developed, it must be turned into an actual airplane, requiring expertise in aerodynamics, mechanical engineering, and other areas (7m51s).
• By the end of the year, Wisk plans to fly its Generation 6 aircraft, which will be the first attempt at certifying a passenger-carrying autonomous aircraft (8m11s).

The biggest consumer issues facing eVTOLs, liquidity, scalability, pro-eVTOL areas (8m31s)

• The biggest issues people will care about before interacting with eVTOL systems are safety, noise, and the convenience of having takeoff and landing locations close to their origins and destinations (9m5s).
• To address noise concerns, eVTOL companies are working to create an acoustic signature that will be seen as an advantage by communities, increasing the value of living in those areas (9m36s).
• When thousands of eVTOLs are flying, they may not need specific "air highways" to adhere to, as regulatory bodies are still figuring out how to enable commercial flights quickly (10m11s).
• eVTOLs are a simplified version of helicopters, with safety features that should inspire confidence in people to use them (10m29s).
• The initial deployment of eVTOLs will be slow, with a focus on replacing helicopters in cities, particularly for use by hospitals (10m47s).
• Even with bullish estimates, it's unlikely that there will be thousands of eVTOLs in the air over one city in the near future (11m5s).
• To make eVTOLs successful, companies aim to achieve liquidity and have many vehicles on dense routes, making them easily available like an Uber service (11m26s).
• The vision for eVTOLs is a service available to everyone, with the potential to scale up the number of vehicles due to their simplicity compared to helicopters (11m54s).
• The discussion highlights the affordability and speed advantages of eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) vehicles, which can significantly reduce travel time across cities like Los Angeles compared to traditional car services. (12m8s)
• Houston is identified as a key city for eVTOL operations due to its favorable airport network, which provides a suitable starting point for integrating these aircraft into urban environments. (12m44s)
• New Zealand is recognized for its progressive approach to airspace integration, allowing for better coordination between crewed and uncrewed aircraft, which is crucial for the development of eVTOL technology. (13m28s)
• The regulatory environment in the United States poses challenges for launching eVTOL services, prompting companies to explore international markets such as the UAE, where there is strong support for innovation. (13m52s)
• Despite the challenges in the U.S., there is significant bipartisan support for advanced air mobility, with efforts being made at both the federal and state levels to advance the industry. (15m5s)
• The International Civil Aviation Organization recently convened a large conference focused on advanced air mobility, indicating growing global interest and momentum in the sector. (15m18s)
• Aviation is emphasized as a critical export for the U.S. economy, underscoring the importance of maintaining leadership in the aviation industry. (15m41s)
• The certification process for flying cars is important and needs to be moved forward (15m51s)

Autonomous flight, redundancy, pilot necessity, edge cases (15m57s)

• The company Wisk was started by Larry, became Kittyhawk, turned into a joint venture, and was eventually sold to Boeing last year, but still operates independently, similar to the Google relationship. (15m57s)
• Wisk is trying to pioneer the pathway to the introduction of autonomous aircraft, which is a longer journey, and autonomy is key to the future of aviation in the small airplane space. (16m41s)
• The causes of incidents and accident rates in helicopters are unacceptable and can be solved by automation, which is a passion for the company. (17m4s)
• Wisk is on a longer journey and is trying to ensure that the US leads in the development of autonomous aircraft, and is working to pioneer the regulatory pathway to make it happen in the United States. (17m20s)
• The company is also working around the globe, including in New Zealand, where regulators are willing to innovate on aerospace and other aspects of the problem. (17m31s)
• Regulatory capture is a challenge, and pushback to the vision of autonomous aircraft often comes from pilots' unions, but it's a clinical issue rather than a salacious one. (17m48s)
• The vision for the future is to have a prolific amount of uncrewed small aircraft operating, while large aircraft will likely remain piloted for the foreseeable future. (18m7s)
• The practical aspect of aviation is that the current system is working well, with zero accidents in 2023, and regulators are naturally conservative when it comes to changing the system. (18m28s)
• New technology can be challenging for regulators, who may be hesitant to change a system that is working, but companies like Wisk are working to pioneer the regulatory pathway for autonomous aircraft. (19m2s)
• The benefits of autonomous aircraft include reducing travel time and eliminating pilot errors, which could save lives and improve safety. (19m15s)
• The discussion highlights the challenge of bringing the high safety standards of large aircraft to smaller aircraft and helicopter markets, which currently have significantly lower safety levels. (19m29s)
• In China, two groups have already been certified to operate, demonstrating the importance of starting operations to improve safety and efficiency in the eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) industry. (19m58s)
• In eVTOL operations like those of Joby, pilots are present mainly to reassure passengers, as the flights are largely automated. The pilot's role is to monitor operations and ensure safety, with the ability to manually control the aircraft in emergencies. (20m19s)
• The use of autonomy in eVTOLs allows for operational flexibility, such as having pilots on the ground who can oversee multiple flights, thus increasing efficiency and passenger capacity. (20m41s)
• eVTOLs are designed with multiple layers of redundancy, including six propellers each with separate motors, inverters, and battery packs, to enhance safety and reliability, similar to commercial airlines. (21m42s)
• The eVTOL industry is working towards achieving the high safety standards seen in commercial airlines, which have not experienced a passenger death in the United States since 2009. (22m3s)
• Initial certifications for eVTOLs do not include flight in known icing conditions, meaning services may be grounded during such weather, particularly affecting operations in regions like the Northeast. (22m29s)
• The discussion highlights the tolerance of eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft to adverse weather conditions, such as heavy icing and high wind speeds, suggesting they may perform better than traditional winged aircraft in these scenarios. (22m54s)
• NASA conducted an acoustic survey on eVTOL aircraft, measuring their noise levels during hover and transition phases, and found that they have a low acoustic signature, making them suitable for urban environments. (23m26s)
• eVTOL aircraft are considered potential game changers for wildfire prevention, as they can handle turbulent conditions better than helicopters due to their multiple rotors and electric propulsion systems. (23m45s)
• The aircraft's design, featuring six rotors, helps prevent all rotors from entering a Vortex ring state simultaneously, and tilting the rotors forward can quickly resolve this issue, showcasing the advantages of electric propulsion. (23m58s)

Acoustic issues, creating a network through scale, go to market decisions, batteries (24m35s)

• The goal for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft is to be ubiquitously accepted in cities, which requires achieving certain noise levels, specifically below 65 DB during takeoff and landing, and below 45 DB in overflight (24m47s).
• Current background noise levels in cities are around 65 DB, and eVTOL aircraft aim to be below this threshold (24m49s).
• A garbage truck is around 80-90 DB, and every 10 DB increase represents an order of magnitude more noise energy (25m11s).
• Jet engines are around 110 DB, and helicopters are between 80-100 DB, with low-frequency sounds that travel long distances and can be annoying (25m23s).
• The technology needed to bring acoustic breakthroughs includes reducing noise levels, particularly low-frequency sounds that can shake buildings and travel long distances (25m38s).
• One approach to reducing noise is spinning propellers slower using electric engines, which can create lower noise levels and achieve 90% of the benefit (26m26s).
• The convenience of owning a car, popularized in America, is point-to-point travel, which eVTOL aircraft may not be able to replicate due to the need to go to a port or station (26m44s).
• The challenge for eVTOL aircraft is to balance the benefit of convenience with the need to go to a port or station, which can be a pain and may not be preferable to taking a car in many cities (27m12s).
• The current state of eVTOL aircraft is similar to the automotive industry in the 1890s, where cars were used as taxis before mass production made them more accessible (27m23s).
• eVTOL aircraft will likely be used as taxis initially, with select routes where they can save people time and be a game changer due to their multimodal nature (27m42s).
• The dream for eVTOL aircraft is to eventually be able to land them at a person's house, but currently, they need to go to a dedicated vertiport due to noise concerns, and reducing the acoustic signature is key to making this a reality (27m52s).
• The biggest challenge in building eVTOL aircraft is the time and expense involved, which doesn't fit typical venture capital models, making it difficult to secure funding (28m32s).
• In 2021, the capital markets opened up, allowing eVTOL companies to raise a lot of money from public markets, which helped make these projects possible (29m1s).
• The business case for eVTOL aircraft involves identifying "hero routes" with high demand, such as Manhattan to JFK, and designing an aircraft around those routes (29m17s).
• The design process involves trade-offs between speed, range, and payload, with payload being the hardest due to the weight of batteries and physics (30m2s).
• The difference in speed between 120 and 150 mph doesn't matter much on short flights, but being able to fly at least 120 mph on 20 to 50-mile routes is important (30m21s).
• The companies chose to use lithium-ion cells, which are commercially available and used in power tools and supercars (30m39s).
• The range of the aircraft being designed is up to 100 miles, but the focus is on back-to-back 20 to 50-mile routes (30m55s).
• Improvements in battery technology are needed to increase range, and advancements on the horizon could unlock longer ranges (31m3s).
• The company is certifying its aircraft with a specific energy of about 300 watt-hours per kilogram, which is a significant improvement from the 170 watt-hours per kilogram achieved in 2009. (31m14s)
• The goal is to achieve a high number of flights between battery replacements, with a sweet spot in shorter-range flights, to minimize environmental impact and reduce the economics of replacing battery packs. (31m52s)
• The aircraft's energy consumption is high during takeoff, but decreases significantly when the wings tilt forward and the aircraft starts flying like a plane. (32m12s)
• Landing requires careful energy management and higher energy usage. (32m23s)
• There are trade-offs to consider when designing the aircraft, including the number of propulsors, which affects disc loading, power usage in hover, and redundancy. (32m29s)
• Increasing the number of propulsors provides more redundancy but also increases power usage in hover and puts more strain on the batteries. (32m40s)

When eVTOLS will be commercially available, working with the FAA (32m49s)

• The panel discusses the timeline for when Americans will be able to use eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) vehicles, with predictions ranging from the first quarter of 2026 to a couple of years after that. (32m49s)
• There is a plan to launch eVTOL passenger services internationally next year, with commercial service expected to begin in the UAE by the end of next year. (33m43s)
• The panelists mention the construction of four "ver ports" in Dubai, with one planned route from the airport to a new location opening in 2027. (34m54s)
• Regulatory challenges are highlighted, with comparisons made to the lengthy approval process for launching Starship. The panelists discuss working closely with the FAA to obtain necessary certifications, emphasizing the need for collaboration to ensure safety. (35m22s)
• The process of meeting regulatory requirements can be challenging, and it is essential to have people with expertise in the industry to advance deep technical subjects (36m26s).
• The aviation industry faces a challenge due to a generation of experts retiring, and new people entering the industry lack the expertise of having built previous systems (36m50s).
• It is crucial to have people from the industry become part of the regulatory framework to regulate the industry, as they understand the technology and can motivate innovation (37m31s).
• In markets with a regulatory framework that allows for accelerated innovation, such as China, companies are making progress in eVTOL technology, and the government can accelerate outcomes (38m0s).
• Companies like EHang and Autoflight are making great progress in China, and the regulatory pathway is more forward-leaning, allowing for rapid iteration (38m29s).
• The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is releasing a new framework called Mosaic, which will allow for more rapid development and a lighter touch for smaller aircraft (38m51s).
• The FAA has been leaning in and working with companies to advance eVTOL technology, with milestones such as stage 4 G1, G2, and G3 certifications (39m31s).
• The industry is building momentum, and companies are writing new regulations with each stage of certification (39m44s).
• The certification process for eVTOLs is a heavy lifting task, with regulators having to navigate uncharted territory, and the industry is at a point where it's ready to take the first step in the US to get it done (39m49s).
• The US regulatory approach is not about trying something and iterating if it goes wrong, but rather about getting it right due to potential consequences, and the people at the top are genuinely excited about eVTOLs (40m27s).
• Former FAA Administrator Billy Nolan and new Administrator Mike Whitaker are examples of people who are excited about eVTOLs, but the regulatory setup lacks incentives, with more disincentives to take action (40m45s).
• The lack of policy and mandate to drive innovation in eVTOLs is a challenge, and it would be beneficial to have a leader set a clear goal, such as having eVTOLs flying safely within the next 36 months (41m21s).
• Changing the culture and approach to regulation through an executive order is possible, but it requires a shift in mindset to break down barriers and allow for testing and certification (41m47s).
• The current regulatory culture prioritizes avoiding mistakes over taking action, and bureaucrats are more likely to face consequences for mistakes than receive rewards for successes (42m8s).
• The SEC's slow-walking of a mandate to allow more accredited investors is an example of the problem, and the lack of accountability and consequences for inaction or mistakes is a challenge in regulatory bodies (42m29s).
• The aviation industry is different from other industries, such as the SEC, and requires a unique approach to regulation, with a focus on safety and innovation (42m59s).
• The Aerospace industry has made significant progress in safety, with a notable statistic achieved through learning from past accidents and implementing regulations to prevent them from happening again (43m2s).
• The current regulations were written with traditional piloted aircraft in mind, but with the advent of new technology, such as eVTOLs, these regulations need to be rewritten to accommodate the absence of a pilot (43m37s).
• The implementation of eVTOL technology could save lives by providing disaster relief, medical supplies, and clean water to areas in need, such as India or Africa, at a significantly lower cost than traditional methods (43m57s).
• In the US, 40,000 people die on the roads every year, and flying is more than 10,000 times safer per passenger mile than driving, so transitioning daily transportation to the air could save thousands of lives (44m19s).
• The development and deployment of eVTOL technology are crucial to realizing these benefits, and it is hoped that flying cars will become a reality in the next couple of years, contrary to Peter Thiel's predictions (44m48s).