Tesla's Strong Earnings, Nvidia's Partnership in India

Tesla's Stock Surge and Lofty Goals

• Tesla's shares surged due to strong earnings and lofty goals, with the company on track for its biggest day jump since 2021, driven by profit ahead of expectations, sales of software, and regulatory credits, as well as lower production costs (1m6s).
• Elon Musk expressed growth expectations, with some estimates suggesting 30% vehicle growth next year, despite negative events, which some consider lofty and uncertain (1m30s).
• Musk's optimism is partly driven by the potential increase in deliveries, although the company has been talking about affordable vehicles coming next year without providing specifics (2m7s).
• Tesla's slight growth call for 2024 requires delivering 514,000 vehicles in the last few months of this year, which would be a record (2m48s).

Autonomous Driving and Ride-Hailing Plans

• Musk was clear about autonomous driving, with plans to deploy ride-hailing services in California and Texas next year, although it's unclear what Tesla needs from California to offer the service (3m27s).
• The company's robotaxi event was conceptual, but provided better indications of a plan to put together hailing, with the potential for deployment in California and Texas (3m11s).
• Uber and Lyft continue to face pressure in the context of competition in hailing to come (4m30s).

FSD Revenue and Functionality

• Tesla recognized $300 million worth of FSD revenues in the quarter, with the release of the Cyber Truck and the ability to recognize revenue from tech delivered in cars they have been selling (4m56s).
• However, FSD still has known failure modes and does not work in the sense that you can run it without a driver, despite improvements in the feel of the car (5m32s).
• The latest version of FSD, 12.5, still doesn't work, with documented cases of rolling through stop signs and other minor driving infractions (6m8s).

Regulation of Autonomous Tech

• Elon Musk needs to improve the tech and obtain regulatory approvals, with the potential for a political role and FSD regulation coming (6m49s).
• Musk expressed interest in working on nationwide or federal level rules for the deployment of autonomous tech on U.S. roads, which could simplify regulation (7m16s).
• This comment is seen as a logical suggestion for regulating the tech, rather than a partisan statement (7m37s).

Tesla's Hailing Service and Investment in Nvidia

• Tesla is expected to offer a hailing service in Texas and California next year, which is a separate issue from full autonomy, and the company could turn on this service without having FSD, with the two being complementary and potentially resulting in earnings growth for the company (8m19s).
• The upgrade to $11 billion spend is what needs to be invested now, with the prior quarter guiding $10 million, and the biggest winner is Nvidia, as Musk emphasized how much they are spending on H 100, Hopper generation GPUs from Nvidia (9m31s).

IBM and T-Mobile Earnings

• IBM's earnings were off 6%, its worst day since April, due to a slowdown in consulting revenue, while software rose 9%, and the CEO stated that clients are facing headwinds that should ease in the next 12 months (10m39s).
• T-Mobile's shares are moving higher, with service now at record highs, as the company beat expectations and is raising full-year subs, and this is also a story of AI, with strong results after the bell (11m55s).

Elon Musk and Election Misinformation

• Elon Musk has been spreading debunked theories about undocumented voters swaying the US election, making him the biggest promoter of anti-immigrant conspiracies on X, the platform he owns (12m40s).
• Musk's online presence has shown that immigration and election fraud is his top policy topic on X, with more engagements on that topic than anything else, and experts believe that this narrative will help Trump dispute the results of the election should he not win (13m48s).
• Machine learning models identified that Musk was most often talking about the issue of noncitizen voting, with 1300 posts in 2024 revolving around the issue, but noncitizen voting is incredibly rare, and noncitizens cannot vote for president (14m41s).
• Elon Musk's idea is not based in reality or history, and it has been affecting the lives of immigrants in the US, who feel their lives are in danger due to misinformation spread by Musk and Trump (15m10s).
• The Trump campaign has doubled down on the misinformation, stating that Elon Musk is not wrong, and has repeated the misinformation endorsed by Musk on X (16m23s).

Bill Gates on Innovation and Tariffs

• Bill Gates has spoken about the role of innovation in addressing the world's challenges and has weighed in on Trump's proposed tariffs, stating that they will lead to higher prices for consumers and slower economic dynamism (17m15s).
• Gates believes that tariffs will have a negative impact on entrepreneurship and innovation, and that politicians should make the case for the benefits of free trade and global markets (18m18s).

Nvidia's Expansion in India

• Nvidia is expanding its AI infrastructure in India, partnering with Asia's richest man to build a new datacenter using the Blackwell chips (20m10s).
• The partnership aims to build AI infrastructure in India, which is seen as a long-term source of good engineering and math talent, but is not yet a significant market for Nvidia (20m58s).
• Nvidia's CEO is trying to spread the use of his tech away from the concentration of big cloud providers, and is currently on a world tour, visiting India and Japan to promote his technology (21m25s).

Atos Restructuring and SK Hynix Demand

• Atos has had its restructuring plan approved by a French court, and will receive $1.8 billion of new money beginning in 2025 (19m40s).
• SK Hynix has reflected strong demand for its memory chips used in Nvidia processors (19m59s).

TSMC and Huawei Chip Supply

• TSMC has identified a client that was secretly supplying chips to Huawei, and as a result, TSMC has cut off ties with the client, with the US government set to investigate the matter (21m59s).

Bloomberg's Stockpicking Competition

• Bloomberg LP is working with the Robin Hood Foundation for a stockpicking competition, where participants can pick a long and short investment for a chance to win $10,000 for charity (22m57s).
• David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital is participating in the competition and has chosen Peloton as his long pick, citing the company's large customer base, low attrition rate, and potential for cost-cutting and margin improvement (24m13s).
• Einhorn believes Peloton is undervalued and has the potential for a turnaround, with the possibility of a new CEO and interest from larger companies if the turnaround is unsuccessful (25m41s).

Einhorn's Investment Views

• Tesla's recent earnings report has led to a 19% increase in the stock price, but Einhorn declined to comment on whether he would go short on the stock again, citing a policy of not commenting on short positions (26m5s).
• Einhorn expressed caution on the valuation of AI-related stocks, stating that the market is expensive and that he prefers to focus on companies with more reasonable valuations, such as HP, which he owns and believes has potential for a strong replacement cycle (26m50s).

Tesla's Growth and Short Investing

• Tesla's strong earnings and potential for mid-teens growth over the next couple of years during the introduction of recycling are discussed, with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times earnings (27m55s).
• The concept of short investing is explained, with a shift in strategy to focus on smaller, more exciting shorts and larger, more boring shorts to manage volatility, as the right tail for the best short ideas has changed (28m39s).

Election and Market Outlook

• The upcoming election is discussed, with uncertainty around the outcome and potential for a close result, leading to a conservative investment posture (29m45s).
• A clear winner in the election could lead to investors chasing perceived beneficial investments, with a potential risk-off tone in the market beforehand (30m32s).

Macro View on Inflation and Investments

• The macro view on inflation is discussed, with a shift from secular deflation to secular reflation, and potential for inflation to re-accelerate, with commodity prices, labor prices, and the Boeing strike as indicators (31m8s).
• The bond market is expected to be affected by the election, with potential for treasury bonds to be mispriced at 4% or better, given nominal GDP growth of 5.5% or more (31m56s).
• Gold is discussed as a potential investment, with a long-term bullish view, given the Fed's dependence on reducing rates even as inflation may be bottoming, and a strong year for gold prices (32m34s).
• Value investing is discussed, with advice to look for exciting values in companies that are less talked about or exciting, given a bifurcated market with less competition from professionals (33m28s).

LinkedIn and the Impact of AI

• LinkedIn's CEO says that if you don't change your job, your job will change due to AI, and there is a need for people to upscale their skills, with AI and human skills being in high demand (34m37s).
• For the first time on LinkedIn, there is growth outside the core knowledge worker, happening in India and Indonesia, with small business owners and freelancers gravitating towards the platform (35m10s).
• LinkedIn is countering AI-generated misinformation by having users attached to their real identity and resume online, and not allowing political advertising on the platform since 2018 (35m56s).
• Ireland's State Protection Commission has fined LinkedIn for illegally processing personal data of users in the EU to deliver targeted advertising, but LinkedIn believes it is now in compliance with regulation (36m36s).

Tesla's Growth Projections and Autonomous Driving

• Tesla's stock is surging after a successful quarter, with the company projecting 30% growth in the automotive business next year, which is a high expectation compared to other car companies (37m9s).
• Analysts are questioning whether Tesla can meet its growth expectations, particularly with the lower-cost EV models, and whether the demand is there to support 30% growth (38m5s).
• Elon Musk's description of the car market, where he says that if Tesla hits the right price, demand is infinite, is not supported by industry trends and consumer behavior (38m58s).
• Autonomous driving technology, specifically Tesla's FSD, is a key factor in the company's stock surge, but it may not resonate with all consumers, and it's unclear if people are ready for it in the next few years (40m8s).
• Implementing autonomous vehicles on public roads will face opposition from people who feel subjected to these vehicles without their consent, and addressing public concerns is a significant hurdle that needs to be overcome (40m29s).
• Elon Musk has discussed the potential for pushing forward regulations if he gets a role in the next administration, but there are many uncertainties surrounding this possibility (40m52s).
• Tesla's targets for the current quarter and next year, including a 30% increase, seem achievable due to factors such as the Fed's rate cuts, easier rates, and Tesla's aggressive incentives (41m16s).
• Tesla's goal is to change the relationship between individuals and cars, potentially leading to a future where people submit their cars to a fleet when not in use, and instead use autonomous vehicles (41m54s).
• The shift towards autonomous vehicles and fleet ownership may lead to an income differentiator, where some people will own vehicles and others will use fleet services to avoid monthly payments and insurance (42m25s).
• The rollout of autonomous vehicles and fleet services is expected to be slower than promised, with a more conservative reality than the hopes and dreams presented (42m50s).