Polling Expert: How The 2024 Election Will Play Out - Nate Silver

How Nate Mastered Sports Betting (0s)

• The period of the election cycle can be intense, likened to running a busy lobster stand in Maine during August, but it's essential to stay grounded and maintain a sense of sanity by engaging in other activities like watching sports (13s).
• The compression of events during the summer, including Biden dropping out and the assassination attempt, was unprecedented and may never be replicated in American political history, making it challenging to predict the outcome of the election (48s).
• Nate Silver has been limited or banned from playing on around 15 different sports betting websites, with only two or three allowing him to place bets without restrictions, due to his perceived winning strategies (1m15s).
• American sports betting organizations ensure the house doesn't lose by banning or limiting players who are perceived as winning bettors, allowing recreational gamblers to place larger bets while restricting sharp bettors to smaller amounts (1m37s).
• The reason for this is that sports betting sites believe sharp bettors have the hallmarks of a winning better, whether they're actually winning or not, and don't want to take the risk of losing money (2m5s).
• Different sites have different levels of tolerance for sharp bettors, and some have moved away from the old model of allowing sharp bettors to provide information to update their lines, instead opting to restrict their action (2m36s).
• The current system is rigged against sharp bettors, with the odds stacked against them, and even in games where education or insight can provide an edge, the scale is pressed in one form or another to favor the house (3m24s).
• While the games are not rigged in the sense that they're unfair according to the rules, they do have a negative expected value for the player, with the house keeping a percentage of the bets placed, such as 10 cents for every dollar put into a slot machine (3m41s).

Models Used to Predict Elections (4m1s)

• The models used to predict elections are somewhat complex, mainly due to the unusual way the US votes, with an electoral college system where 50 states vote and figuring out how they tie in together is challenging (4m3s).
• The models consider correlations between states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin likely voting together, and Arizona and Nevada possibly voting together (4m30s).
• There is an art and science in adjusting polling averages for shifts in the polls, and the models are not just simple Excel spreadsheets, but rather 5,000 words of code in a programming language called Stata (5m2s).
• The 2024 election is not significantly different from past elections, with Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for the third time, and the model changes mainly due to changing conditions rather than the model itself (5m28s).
• One persistent problem for Democrats is the potential to win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, as seen in 2016, due to the GOP's more efficient populist coalition (5m58s).
• The models can account for the fact that Democrats tend to have "wasted votes" in states like California and New York, where they have a strong presence (6m3s).
• Despite the challenges, polling data is still useful, as a sample of 8,800 people can provide a good indication of the whole country's voting intentions, but there are issues with response rates and demographics (7m0s).
• The people who respond to polls are not representative of the general population, with older white women being more likely to answer phone calls from strangers, and pollsters have had to adapt to online methods to reach a more diverse sample (7m15s).
• Pollsters have to make adjustments to account for the biases in their samples, essentially making "sausage out of mincemeat" (7m56s).

The Way People Vote Today (8m3s)

• People are increasingly protest voting, driven by a desire to reject the opposing party rather than support their own, with many voters motivated by negative polarization and grievance (8m6s).
• Politics in the United States often operates on grievance, with campaigns focusing on the moral imperative to prevent the opposing party from fulfilling voters' nightmares rather than promising to fulfill their dreams (8m17s).
• The implication of this trend for messaging is that parties tailor their messages to their respective voter bases, with Democrats appealing to anxieties and the GOP using anti-immigration and anti-change rhetoric (8m37s).
• Democrats tend to score higher on neuroticism and negative emotionality, leading them to focus on themes that touch on people's anxieties in their commercials (8m52s).
• The GOP, on the other hand, is more likely to use anti-immigration and anti-change messaging, as they score lower on openness to experience (9m9s).
• The most important battleground topics for Democrats are likely to be abortion, particularly among moderate voters and younger women who disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (9m31s).
• For the GOP, immigration is likely to be a key issue, with many voters concerned about the influx of immigrants into the United States (9m44s).
• The parties individually have sophisticated data analysis capabilities, with many using their own modeling and data-driven approaches, although they may also subscribe to external sources like the Silver Bulletin (10m31s).

Why Kamala Harris Isn’t Appearing on Podcasts (11m2s)

• Kamala Harris is not appearing on podcasts or long-form interviews, unlike Donald Trump, despite being popular among Gen Z, and this is likely due to her receiving bad advice from her inherited team from the Biden campaign (11m21s).
• The Biden campaign became paranoid about the press due to Joe Biden's inconsistent public speaking performance, and this paranoia is being carried forward to Harris's campaign, which is a mistake (11m36s).
• Harris needs to win a majority of the popular vote, and every marginal vote matters, so she should be more open to media appearances (11m44s).
• Some Democrats believe the mainstream media is biased against them, but this is not objectively accurate, and the media has different conflicting incentives and makes different types of mistakes (12m21s).
• The 2024 election is currently a coin toss, with a 50/50 chance of either side winning, and the influence of mainstream media is complicated (12m47s).
• Mainstream media, such as The New York Times and major news networks, tends to have a center-left bias and frames certain issues in a more progressive way, but there are also powerful right-wing outlets like Fox News and social media platforms that can counterbalance this (13m36s).
• The impact of mainstream media on the election is uncertain, as people are skeptical and reluctant to change their minds based on what they read or hear, and it's not clear if having a more equally represented mainstream media would make a significant difference (14m33s).

Do Debates Change People’s Minds? (14m54s)

• Debates may not immediately impact polls as much as people think, but they can generate a lot of headlines, and it's unclear if they eventually change people's minds (14m57s).
• In a close election, moving the polls by a single point can matter significantly, as seen in the last two elections, which came down to a single point (15m15s).
• The goal is to find the 3% of undecided voters or the 3% considering both candidates, as it's an efficient way to win the vote on the margin (15m31s).
• In the US, elections last for two years, giving people ample time to think about the question, which may be why debates aren't more persuasive (16m25s).
• People have already made up their minds, and only about 3 or 4% of people say they are undecided, which is historically low (16m50s).
• In the context of the 2024 election, not picking Josh Shapiro as a running mate might be a mistake, as Pennsylvania is often the most important state in the model, and Kamala Harris has gotten better polling there lately (17m8s).

The Impact of Running Mates (17m22s)

• To win elections, candidates often try to appeal to the center, as this is where most voters lie, and this approach is still considered effective in the long term, with the more moderate candidate usually winning (17m25s).
• Kamala Harris is attempting to moderate her stance on certain issues, such as fracking and policing, to appeal to a broader audience, while also taking a harder line on the border (17m41s).
• Some people accuse Harris of flip-flopping or not holding to her principles, citing past statements that contradict her current views (18m12s).
• Similar criticisms are not being leveled at Trump, who has also shifted his stance on certain issues, such as abortion, in an attempt to appeal to a wider audience (18m31s).
• JD Vance, who was formerly an anti-Trump intellectual, has also moved towards the middle on abortion, raising concerns about his principles (18m38s).
• The fact that Trump is willing to say different things depending on his audience is a legitimate concern, and it is unclear what the country would get with Harris as president (18m48s).
• The current president's age and limited working hours raise questions about the country's leadership and decision-making process (19m7s).
• There are legitimate questions about whether Harris is a pragmatic or progressive candidate, and whether her shifting stances will discourage or degrade faith in her leadership (19m27s).
• The issue of hypocrisy and saying what needs to be said to win votes is a complex one, and it is unclear when it becomes a problem for a candidate's credibility (19m40s).
• The decision to choose a running mate is not just about improving chances of winning, but also about their capacity to run the country and help the president (20m4s).
• The public seems to have a strong tolerance for politicians who flip-flop, and it is not necessarily a problem if a politician is instrumental in trying to affect public opinion (20m32s).
• The concept of direct democracy is preferred over having a group of idealists, but not knowing what one is getting can be a challenge, and people can hold two opposing views in their reality, such as believing it doesn't matter who gets into power while also thinking the world will end if their person doesn't get into power (21m12s).
• Most people do not calculate who they think will be the best party for their country or lives using a spreadsheet, but rather feel included or excluded by certain parties, and the left had a problem during the summer of being seen as exclusive to those who didn't follow certain policies (21m41s).
• Trump, despite having many problems, is trying to expand his circle by going on different podcasts and visiting communities that Republicans typically don't go to, which can be appealing to some people (22m31s).
• The pick of JD Vance was likely a mistake, as it was influenced by Trump's sons and made at a time when Trump seemed likely to win, and Vance has negative favorability ratings and a lack of experience in the Senate (22m45s).
• A better pick for Trump might have been someone with more experience in the Senate, such as Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley, or someone who is more explicitly moderate and establishment Republican (23m40s).

Have the Assassination Attempts Impacted the Election? (23m53s)

• The attempted assassination of Trump had some impact on the polls, but its effect was limited due to other events happening at the same time, such as Joe Biden's campaign imploding and the Republican National Convention, with Trump eventually leading by four points in the popular vote (24m29s).
• The attempted assassination has received relatively little media coverage, which may contribute to its limited impact on the polls (24m48s).
• Joe Biden's performance and fitness for office have also received little coverage, despite being an important governance story (25m0s).
• The polls did move in response to the attempted assassination, but the movement was limited, possibly due to a recency bias and the fact that 90-95% of people are already locked in their voting decisions (25m11s).
• The internet and social media have created a culture of short attention spans, where events are quickly forgotten and replaced by new memes and stories (25m29s).
• It is difficult to sustain momentum in politics due to the short attention span of the public and the media, with events typically having a duration of a week or two (25m50s).
• Polls can be biased by the excitement of voters during an upcycle, leading to a desirability effect where voters are more likely to respond to surveys and talk about their side's winning (26m2s).
• Kamala Harris's selection as vice president was seen as a masterful move, as she was previously unknown and had been the subject of memes, but has since proven to be a capable politician (26m30s).
• Harris's experience as vice president, including traveling the world and giving speeches, has likely helped her develop her political skills (27m17s).
• Kamala Harris is better at retail politics, but her 2019 primary run was during a time when Democrats were moving to the left, which may have hurt her as she was not known for being progressive as a DA in San Francisco (27m23s).
• The discussion around wokeness has changed the landscape, with unappealing messaging that makes people feel guilty for their race or identity characteristics, which tends to exclude people from a coalition (27m56s).
• There were always people on the center and left who were not on board with wokeness but felt they couldn't speak up until a couple of years ago, leading to a shift away from the movement (28m32s).
• The current movement has similarities with the political correctness of the late 80s and early 90s, which had a short shelf life due to being easily mockable (29m2s).
• Trump's coalition of voters is different from past Republicans, with racial depolarization in the electorate, where white voters are becoming more Democratic, and voters of color, especially younger ones, are becoming more Republican (29m22s).
• This racial depolarization leads to counterintuitive results on the map, such as a candidate doing better with white voters potentially keeping whiter states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, even if their polling is not as strong in other states (29m53s).

The States That Decide the Election (30m16s)

• The seven and a half states that are likely to determine the 2024 election are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina (31m22s).
• These states are crucial, and residents in these areas will likely see numerous campaign commercials from September to November (30m35s).
• It is essential for interested individuals to vote and consider donating to down-ballot candidates, such as those running in state supreme court races or city council elections, as these positions receive less attention but have significant importance (30m49s).
• The scoreboard watching element of elections, where people track the numbers, may not provide new insights between now and November, as the polls are likely to remain close (31m6s).
• The northern Midwestern group of states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, are expected to be crucial in the election (31m24s).
• Nevada's status as a swing state is surprising, given its diverse working-class workforce, which has shifted more toward Trump, and its casino industry, which employs a diverse group of people, including minorities (31m52s).
• Democrats tend to perform well among college-educated knowledge sector workers, but this demographic is not typical of the workforce in Nevada's casino industry, which includes jobs such as blackjack dealers, food service workers, and room service staff (32m28s).

Likelihood of a Third-Party Candidate Being Elected (32m50s)

• The possibility of a third-party candidate being elected is not impossible, but the major parties are skilled at adapting to changing political tides and often co-opt third-party votes (33m1s).
• Donald Trump can be seen as a third-party candidate in some ways, as he disagreed with the Republican establishment and brought a new perspective to the party (33m11s).
• Bernie Sanders, an independent, also brought change to the Democratic Party by running for the nomination and influencing policies such as the minimum wage (33m32s).
• The risk of third-party votes being co-opted by the two major parties is a significant concern, as it can lead to the absorption of third-party ideas and supporters (33m45s).
• The Republican Party's autopsy after the 2012 election recommended moving to the center on immigration, but Trump took a different approach, which ultimately worked in his favor (34m9s).
• Polls may have underestimated Trump's support in the past due to various factors, including the tendency of more politically engaged and college-educated individuals to respond to polls, who are more likely to be Democrats (35m1s).
• There is a risk of polls being inaccurate in both directions, as seen in 2022 when polls underestimated Democrats in some big races, and in 2012 when they underestimated Obama's support (34m37s).
• Pollsters face challenges in achieving unbiased results, including the issue of people who are more likely to respond to polls being more politically engaged and college-educated, and thus more likely to be Democrats (34m57s).
• The COVID-19 pandemic may have also caused issues in 2020, as Democrats were more likely to socially distance and respond to surveys during that time (35m22s).
• Despite these challenges, the current polls suggest a close election, with a 50-50 split, which is a reasonable prediction given the historical context (35m49s).
• There may still be a social desirability bias against Trump, but it may be less significant than assumed, as Americans tend to be forthcoming in surveys, and the social acceptability of supporting Trump has expanded in some communities (36m5s).
• The issue is more that Trump supporters are less likely to trust news outlets and respond to polls, rather than being hesitant to express their support for Trump (36m55s).
• The degree of social acceptability for Trump support has widened, particularly in communities such as younger black men and younger Hispanic men (37m22s).

The Power of ‘the Village & the River’ (37m39s)

• The Village and the River are terms used to describe two influential cultures in America, with the Village referring to the East Coast establishment, including Harvard, the New York Times, and Academia, which tends to be politically Progressive and collective in its orientation (37m46s).
• The River, on the other hand, refers to a community of like-minded Risk Takers, including people in Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the casino business, who are competitive, analytics-driven, and want to win (38m21s).
• The strengths of the Village include its emphasis on group cohesion and social status, while its weaknesses include the risk of being canceled or ostracized for not conforming to the group's norms (38m11s).
• The strengths of the River include its emphasis on competition, analytics, and winning, while its weaknesses include the potential for prioritizing winning over other values (38m41s).
• As the world becomes more algorithmized and math and probability become more important skills, the River's approach is becoming more emergent and important, particularly in the tech and finance sectors (38m50s).
• The Village is made up of highly decorated individuals in terms of Academia, but they are still driven by capitalist fundamentals and are concerned with their social status (40m12s).
• The River is more willing to be contrarian and prioritize being right over offending society, whereas the Village is more concerned with social status and appearances (41m6s).
• The advantages of the Village include its emphasis on social status and group cohesion, while its disadvantages include the risk of being canceled or ostracized and prioritizing appearances over other values (41m23s).
• The US is a wealthy country that can afford to have some redistribution and address issues like climate change, and there is a need to expand rights to LGBTQ people (41m34s).
• The perception of Trump as being quite dangerous to democracy is a credible argument, especially after January 6th (41m57s).
• Historically, the US has had competent institutions, but partisanship is becoming a concern, and expertise is sometimes conditional on politics (42m7s).
• The media is a dynamic business, but there are sometimes "thumbs on the scales" in different directions, which can be a problem (42m40s).
• The disadvantages of the US system include the potential for destructive individuals, such as Sam Bankman-Fried or Elizabeth Holmes, who can break the mold in a negative way (43m0s).
• There is a selection bias in who is chosen to be founders, with the VC industry being predominantly male and lacking diversity in terms of Black or Hispanic representation (43m20s).
• Being left-leaning is seductive due to the prioritization of compassion on social media, which can make left-leaning talking points more compelling and inclusive (43m40s).
• Left-leaning arguments are often more sympathetic and humane, which can make them more broadly appealing, as evidenced by Democrats winning their fair share of elections and controlling the Senate (44m18s).

Nate’s Experiences With Sam Bankman-Fried (44m48s)

• Nate Silver spent a lot of time with Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), first talking to him in January 2022 during a Bitcoin peak, and found SBF to be extremely tolerant of risk, believing that not risking ruining one's life meant not accepting enough risk (45m8s).
• SBF's approach to risk was unusual, as someone worth a lot of money should be hedging their risk, but he was not doing that, and was instead enabled by people who should have asked more questions (45m43s).
• Nate Silver thinks SBF is smart, but overconfident, and overestimated his ability to navigate the ups and downs of crypto prices and NFTs (47m2s).
• SBF seemed to think he could charm his way into a sympathetic jury verdict, and when asked if he would take a deal of two years in jail and some light time after that, he said he would have to think about it, but ultimately got 20 years instead (47m40s).
• SBF's girlfriend, Caroline Ellison, managed to finesse her way into a 107-year discount on her jail sentence, going from a 110-year potential maximum to three years, and is jokingly referred to as a potential presidential candidate (48m41s).
• Nate Silver notes that Caroline Ellison's ability to finesse her way out of a long jail sentence is impressive, and jokingly suggests that she could be a good presidential candidate, able to sort out complex issues like the Ukraine and the Middle East (49m5s).

Why Crypto Investors Are More Likely to Be Scammed (49m24s)

• The boredom Market hypothesis, coined by Matt Levine from Bloomberg, suggests that people's social lives being radically curtailed during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with the government pumping a lot of money into the economy, led to a surge in speculative assets, including cryptocurrency and NFTs (49m42s).
• The pandemic-induced boredom and anxiety created an environment where people were more prone to investing in high-risk, high-reward assets, such as cryptocurrency, rather than being genuinely interested in the underlying technology (50m25s).
• A question posed to crypto investors revealed that 95% of them would not invest in cryptocurrency if there was no potential for profit, indicating that their interest is primarily driven by the possibility of making money (51m7s).
• Morgan Housel's blog post discusses the concept of compounded knowledge versus cyclical knowledge, using the example of germ disease to illustrate how knowledge can be locked in and compounded over time, whereas cyclical knowledge is often forgotten and repeated (51m43s).
• Housel's post highlights that throughout history, people have repeated the same mistakes, such as investing in speculative assets, due to a lack of understanding of compounded knowledge, with examples ranging from ancient times to the Great Depression and the Florida housing market in the 1900s (52m49s).
• Research suggests that the richer people are, the more illogical they become with their money, as they are driven by a desire for more and a built-in dissatisfaction with their current situation (53m2s).
• This desire for more is a fundamental driving force that will always be present, even if significant advancements are made in fields like medicine, such as solving all cancers and conquering human health (53m30s).
• There is a concern about the potential risks of giving data to big powerful companies and AI systems, which could lead to exploitation if people are not smart about it, and the economy becoming more "casino-like" (53m55s).
• The casino industry's transformation into a respectable business is an underdog story, as it was previously plagued by cheating and mob involvement, but regulation and visionaries like Steve Wynn helped turn it around (54m33s).
• The casino industry's success in Las Vegas is partly due to its transformation into a luxury destination, which was a big bet made by casino magnates, but it was not always seen as a high-end or luxury activity (55m26s).
• Historically, the casino industry was seen as cheap or lower-middle-brow fun, with some exceptions like The Rat Pack era, but it has since evolved to include high-end luxury options (55m46s).

Psychology of High Risk-Takers (56m29s)

• It's essential to be cool under pressure and understand that when facing high-stress situations, the body has a natural reaction, which can be managed by recognizing it as a normal response rather than a bad thing (56m51s).
• In situations involving physical risk or financial risk, the body's reaction can be intense, but it's crucial to slow down and simplify things to maintain control (56m56s).
• To regulate oneself in high-stress situations, such as public speaking, job interviews, or high-stakes poker games, it's essential to recognize that a physical stress response isn't necessarily bad and can be managed by acknowledging it (58m40s).
• A professional golfer's resting heart rate can increase significantly during a major tournament, demonstrating that the body's stress response can be a natural and necessary reaction to increase performance (59m5s).
• When feeling nervous, it's essential to avoid freezing up, like Joe Biden did in the first debate, and instead, focus on speaking naturally, as the words will work perfectly fine, even if one can't be as cerebral as usual (59m27s).
• Being "in the zone," like Michael Jordan described, can be achieved by recognizing that the body's stress response can actually increase information intake, allowing for a heightened sense of awareness and reaction time (59m46s).
• To manage high-stress situations, it's crucial to understand that the body operates on a different system under pressure and that slowing down and simplifying things can be a powerful advantage (57m44s).
• Anticipating an opponent's moves before they make them can be a real experience, especially when under stress, and getting used to it can be helpful (59m58s).
• Fasting before a podcast led to a hypo episode, causing the brain to go completely blank, but the body's autopilot system allowed for somewhat cogent responses (1h0m12s).
• The brain's ability to go on autopilot and direct attention is an example of its plasticity, as seen in the ability to focus on a conversation in a crowded and noisy environment (1h1m3s).
• Fasting and poker do not go well together, as the body will find ways to make a person lose in order to get food, and it is recommended to avoid being too sedated or famished while playing (1h1m24s).
• Being extremely hungry can cause a person to make mistakes and find ways to lose, such as busting out of a game to get food (1h1m40s).

The Price You Pay to Be Nate Silver (1h1m54s)

• Living with a worldview and perspective focused on who's going to win and the optimal strategy in politics can sometimes rub certain people the wrong way (1h1m55s).
• This perspective can make one feel like an outsider in politics, as most people are involved in politics because they support a particular team and want that team to win (1h2m12s).
• Being known as the "political forecast guy" can be a concern, and it's possible that this reputation is irreparable at this point (1h2m59s).
• There was consideration about not running an election forecast publicly this cycle and instead doing some consulting or taking the forecast totally private (1h3m5s).
• However, the decision was made to continue with the public forecast, partly because of the success of the newsletter "Silver Bulletin" on Substack (1h3m25s).
• Working for a giant corporation like The Walt Disney Corporation, which owned 538 before, was a source of burnout, but this is no longer the case (1h3m37s).
• The period after Labor Day is particularly challenging for pollsters and forecasters, as people tend to get very mad at those who don't provide good news for their candidate (1h3m56s).
• With only 44 more days to go until the election, the pressure is on, but there are things to look forward to, such as a trip to Korea and poker events planned for December (1h4m11s).

Nate’s Core Values (1h4m30s)

• Agency, plurality, and reciprocity are core values that are crucial in a data-driven world, with agency referring to having good choices, plurality meaning no dominant group or faction should dominate, and reciprocity being a form of fairness derived from Game Theory, emphasizing treating others how one wants to be treated (1h4m44s).
• In personal life, it's essential to deal with risk effectively, and having a high barometer for decision-making can be beneficial, as seen in the contrast with S bankman freed's risk-taking approach (1h6m29s).
• Valuing traits such as intense focused work, being willing to pay for convenience, and not feeling guilty about it can contribute to increased productivity, especially for individuals who work independently and have variable income, such as during election years (1h7m40s).
• Recognizing the importance of self-care, such as getting enough sleep, can also have a significant impact on productivity, with one hour of extra sleep being worth a substantial amount in terms of work output (1h7m32s).
• Embracing abundance and being willing to invest in oneself can lead to a more convenient and easier life, which is essential for individuals who work hard and have a lot to manage (1h6m52s).
• Having a strong work ethic and being able to balance work and personal life effectively is crucial for achieving success and maintaining a healthy lifestyle (1h7m12s).
• A typical day involves six to eight hours of real intellectual work, requiring pacing oneself to maintain productivity (1h8m4s).
• As a writer, work is constantly being done in the background, such as writing blog posts, even during daily activities like getting coffee (1h8m16s).
• A "maker schedule" is preferred over a "manager schedule," as coined by Paul Graham, to optimize for focused work rather than multiple scheduled commitments (1h8m24s).
• Having more than three scheduled commitments in a day can be overwhelming and may ruin the day's productivity (1h8m33s).
• Paul Graham's concept of "founder mode" versus "manager mode" suggests that if the beginning of the day is disrupted, it's best to commit to a "manager mode" for the rest of the day and focus on less meaningful tasks (1h8m40s).
• When the day starts poorly, it's smart to adapt and focus on learning rather than trying to accomplish meaningful work, similar to adjusting strategy in a game of poker (1h9m20s).
• Batching work, such as dedicating a large block of time to a task and then not doing it again for a while, can be an efficient way to work (1h9m29s).
• Having a dedicated "meeting day" and leaving the rest of the week free can be a more efficient way to schedule tasks, allowing for large blocks of uninterrupted time (1h9m49s).
• Writing a book requires long periods of focused time, ideally three hours or more, to become fully immersed in the work (1h10m4s).

Where to Find Nate (1h10m13s)

• Nate Silver has a newsletter called the Silver Bulletin where people can keep up to date with his work (1h10m25s).
• Nate Silver co-hosts a podcast called Risky Business with Maria Konnikova, another poker player (1h10m28s).
• A selection of the best clips from the podcast is available to watch, featuring episodes from the last couple of months (1h10m41s).