TWiST News: Pardons, Enron, Crypto's Moment, and the Future of Chinese Venture | E2053

Jason and Alex kick off the show (0s)

• The current crypto era brings new opportunities, but startup founders should be cautious and not rush into anything, as this could lead to a new wave of people losing their money (30s).
• In the past, startup founders were advised to play by the existing rules and only allow accredited investors to participate, which limited participation to the top 5-10% of the country (19s).
• The show "This Week in Startups" is brought to you by Squarespace, LinkedIn Jobs, and Notion, with special offers and discounts available for listeners (42s).
• The hosts, Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm, welcome listeners back to the show after a break, with Alex feeling refreshed and Jason having just returned from a trip to New York (1m21s).
• Jason spent time with his family in New York, including his parents, brothers, and their kids, and also visited Manhattan with his daughters (1m44s).
• Jason is now in Austin for a couple of days before heading to San Francisco for the Allin Holiday Spectacular, where he will perform and try to make people laugh (2m5s).

Hunter Biden's pardon and implications for presidential power (2m30s)

• Hunter Biden received a pardon from his father, which was met with mixed reactions, with some viewing it as an example of grifting in politics and others seeing it as a natural act of a parent protecting their child (2m41s).
• The pardon is seen as a continuation of the ongoing rivalry between politicians, with some cases being driven by personal and political motivations rather than a genuine pursuit of justice (4m21s).
• The concept of presidential pardons is being questioned, with some arguing that they serve a purpose in preventing massively unfair prosecutions, but others believing that the Supreme Court should be the backstop instead (5m11s).
• The idea of giving the president the power to commute death sentences is being considered, as it would provide a way to reverse irreversible punishments in cases where mistakes have been made (5m59s).
• The discussion highlights the complexities and challenges of the US justice system, with some cases being driven by politics and personal agendas rather than a genuine pursuit of justice (5m2s).
• The pardon of Hunter Biden is seen as a distraction from more pressing issues, with some calling for a move away from the ongoing bickering and fighting in politics (5m8s).
• The comparison is made between the cases against Hunter Biden and Donald Trump, with some arguing that certain cases would not have been pursued if the individuals were not public figures (4m49s).
• The concept of grifting in politics is criticized, with some viewing it as a dark aspect of politics that undermines trust and confidence in the system (3m45s).
• The issue for Democrats is that President Biden initially stated he wouldn't pardon certain individuals, but ultimately did, which may be perceived as a human weakness or strength depending on one's perspective (6m16s).
• Cash Patel, a Trump loyalist, was put forward as the next head of the FBI, and his intentions to go after Trump's enemies may be a factor in Biden's decision to pardon certain individuals (6m41s).
• The pardon decision may be seen as a personal and political move, and it is expected that leaders at the top of the food chain should be more than just human (7m10s).
• The death penalty is a topic of discussion, with some arguing it should be abolished if it still kills even one innocent person, and computations at the presidential level may be a consideration (7m17s).
• The death penalty is a complex issue, with some understanding its use for terrorists and mass shooters, but also having a hard time with its irreversible nature (7m32s).

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• The design intelligence feature provides users with a high-end designer at their fingertips, allowing them to create a unique website (8m30s).
• Squarespace Payments makes managing payments seamless, with fast onboarding and support for popular methods like Apple Pay and Clara (8m32s).
• The platform offers built-in analytics that provide users with insights to scale their business, including understanding sources of traffic and sales trends (8m51s).
• The built-in analytics are fully integrated and available at the same price as the rest of the Squarespace features (9m6s).
• Users can sign up for a free trial at squarespace.com/twist, and when they're ready to launch, they can get 10% off their first website or domain purchase by going to squarespace.com/twist (9m8s).

Enron's return and potential crypto play (9m31s)

• Enron, a company infamous for its massive financial fraud in the early 2000s, appears to be making a comeback with a new Twitter handle and website, sparking confusion and surprise among observers (9m43s).
• The company's website features a video with stock footage and a message about embracing change and transformation, which seems out of place given Enron's history of corporate malfeasance (10m1s).
• Enron's new vision includes pillars such as adaptation, leadership by example, forgiveness, and progress, which may be an attempt to rebrand the company (12m11s).
• The company also mentions "permissionless innovation" and decentralizing technology, suggesting a potential play in the cryptocurrency space (12m22s).
• The move is seen as a possible "crypto grift" aimed at getting attention, but it may also be a genuine attempt to participate in the future of cryptocurrency (12m32s).
• The development comes as cryptocurrency is gaining attention again, with new coins and projects emerging, including one launched by TikTok personality Joshua Block (12m41s).
• The resurgence of cryptocurrency also raises questions about regulation, particularly in light of the new Trump Administration's potential stance on crypto, which may be more favorable than the previous administration's approach (13m40s).
• The lack of clear regulation and framework for cryptocurrency has been a point of contention, with some arguing that it has hindered the development of the industry (13m50s).
• Experts, including Andreessen Horowitz's crypto team, are cautiously optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency, but also acknowledge the need for clear regulation and policymaking (14m26s).

Crypto regulation changes under the new administration (14m47s)

• The current crypto era is not entirely clear of regulatory risks, and startup founders should not rush into actions that may lead to prosecution, as it will take years to create a national framework for crypto regulation in the United States (14m47s).
• Local attorney generals can still bring cases against companies, regardless of any actions taken by the federal government, and it will take consensus from multiple parts of the government to establish clear regulations (15m28s).
• The process of creating a national framework for crypto regulation is expected to take at least a year or two, and it is uncertain whether the upside from a more accommodative regulatory environment has already been priced into the values of major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum (16m3s).
• The price of XRP has gone parabolic despite having an active case against it, and its centralized nature makes it a key token to watch in terms of regulatory developments (16m40s).
• The outcome of the lawsuit against XRP will be an important indicator of how the regulatory environment for crypto is evolving, and it is unclear whether a presidential pardon or executive order could impact the case (17m0s).
• XRP's situation is seen as a potential canary in the coalmine for the crypto industry, and its outcome could have significant implications for the markets and the SEC's ability to regulate token sales (17m26s).
• The SEC's lawsuit against XRP alleges that the company broke securities laws, and the outcome of the case could have significant implications for the crypto industry and its ability to operate within existing regulatory frameworks (17m6s).
• There is a divide within the crypto world, with some people favoring Bitcoin and viewing other cryptocurrencies as scams, which could lead to nuanced reactions if Trump were to support a cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin (18m35s).
• Jason had previously expressed skepticism about Bitcoin's potential, stating in 2018 that he believed there was a 60-70% chance Bitcoin's value could drop to zero, and in 2019, he thought Bitcoin might be replaced by a better cryptocurrency (19m22s).
• However, Jason has since changed his stance, revealing that he and his wife have invested in Bitcoin and plan to hold onto it, advising others to invest a small percentage of their net worth in Bitcoin or other assets with potential for asymmetrical returns (20m11s).
• Jason's change of heart is due in part to Bitcoin's resilience, having never been hacked in terms of its protocol or servers, and the fact that governments have begun to accept the ownership of Bitcoin (21m5s).
• Jason advises people to invest only what they can afford to lose, suggesting 1-5% of their net worth, and notes that investing in assets like Bitcoin can potentially lead to significant returns (20m40s).
• The concept of Bitcoin has shifted from its original intention of being used for everyday transactions to being a store of value and speculation, often referred to as "digital gold" or comparable to Manhattan real estate. (22m9s)
• Three factors that could have potentially stopped the growth of Bitcoin were its illegality in certain countries, its limitations as a technology for transacting, and the possibility of a better solution emerging. (22m0s)
• Despite these concerns, Bitcoin has not been hacked, and governments have allowed it to exist, making it unlikely that it will be banned or collapse. (22m59s)
• The possibility of a better technology emerging and replacing Bitcoin still exists, with alternatives like Ethereum and Solana already available. (22m45s)
• The use of artificial intelligence or quantum computing could potentially lead to Bitcoin being hacked, but this seems unlikely at present. (23m0s)
• Governments could still potentially ban or restrict Bitcoin by imposing taxes or regulations, but this would be difficult to enforce in the long term. (23m41s)
• The likelihood of Bitcoin being replaced, hacked, or banned is estimated to be around 10-20%, with the majority of the probability (80-90%) suggesting that the technology is here to stay for the next 10 years. (23m23s)

Investment strategies in Bitcoin and the impact of hiring decisions (24m43s)

• A new cryptocoin has been created, inspired by a small animal, which is being promoted, but this is seen as hurting the serious people in the world of crypto who believe in decentralized permissionless money systems like Bitcoin (24m56s).
• The Fidelity Bitcoin ETF has been purchased by Jason's family in a small amount every month as part of their taxable buys, and this is an addition to their existing auto-invested retirement, taxable, and 529 accounts (25m26s).
• Jason's family has a financially conservative approach to investing, with a preference for low-cost index funds, and they do not have a target percentage for Bitcoin in their portfolio, but 1-2% is a comfortable range (26m20s).
• Jason does not plan to invest a large percentage of his portfolio in Bitcoin, as it does not generate yield, and he prefers assets that do generate yield (26m40s).
• The investment strategy for Bitcoin is to keep buying a little bit every month, with the understanding that if it goes to zero, it will not significantly impact their net worth, and if it goes up, it will be a bonus (25m35s).

LinkedIn Jobs - Post your first job for free (26m51s)

• Hiring the wrong person can negatively impact a company's productivity, momentum, and culture, ultimately derailing the business and killing the vibes, but a great hire can accelerate everything and raise the bar for the entire organization (26m52s).
• A "bar raiser" is someone who comes into an organization and raises the bar for everyone else, and LinkedIn is a great place to find such individuals, with over a billion members worldwide in more than 200 countries (27m13s).
• The majority of LinkedIn users, 70%, do not visit other leading job sites, making LinkedIn the best place to post a job and find amazing talent (27m30s).
• LinkedIn uses AI to help craft job descriptions that attract the right people, and 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours of posting a job on the platform (27m48s).
• LinkedIn is offering a promotion where users can post their first job for free by visiting linkedin.com/twist, with terms and conditions applying (28m7s).

Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy's strategy on Bitcoin (28m25s)

• Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy is discussed, where the company sold 3.7 million shares for $1.5 billion and purchased 15,400 Bitcoins between November 25th and December 1st, bringing their total Bitcoin holdings to around 400,000 with a cost of $23.4 billion and an average price of $58,000 per Bitcoin (29m0s).
• MicroStrategy's current market value of their Bitcoin holdings is around $40 billion, with a market cap of around $90 billion and $7 billion in debt, making their net assets value around $83 billion (30m40s).
• The company's decision to issue shares to buy more Bitcoin is questioned, with concerns about their trading value being two to three times their net assets value (29m52s).
• A new app called Genie, developed by Sergey and the team at Google, is mentioned as a useful tool for searching and accessing information, including live data (30m6s).
• The difference in market cap values between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance is noted, with Yahoo Finance listing MicroStrategy's market cap at $89 billion and Google Finance listing it at $71 billion (31m24s).
• MicroStrategy's market cap is around $40 billion, with $39.3 billion in value from their holdings and $44 billion in additional value, minus debt, which is approximately correct (32m16s).
• The company has $400 million in revenue from their legacy business, which, when given a 5x multiple, equals around $2 billion, and they have $35 to $40 billion in unknown value of their market cap, essentially double the value of their coins (32m40s).
• If someone wants exposure to Bitcoin, they could pay $200,000 per coin through MicroStrategy or buy two coins and get it for half price, around $95,000, which raises concerns (33m0s).
• If Bitcoin's price drops to $25,000, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings would decrease from $40 billion to $10 billion, and they would have to liquidate 30% of their Bitcoins to service their $3 billion debt (33m25s).
• This situation could become concerning for MicroStrategy between a Bitcoin price of $25,000 and $50,000, leading to the possibility of having to liquidate Bitcoin under their average price (33m40s).
• This information leads to the conclusion that MicroStrategy's stock could be a potential short, but it's a dangerous move due to the risks of momentum and manipulated meme stocks (33m53s).
• The CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, was invited to come on the show to discuss these concerns, but he hasn't responded yet (34m37s).
• A warning factor in MicroStrategy's latest SEC filing mentions that the company may be required to sell shares or Bitcoin to cover their convertible senior notes, which summarizes the concerns about the possibility of needing to sell assets (35m5s).
• The idea of buying MicroStrategy stock to gain exposure to Bitcoin goes against the ethos of owning one's own coins and decentralization, making it a ridiculous option for those who truly believe in Bitcoin (35m42s).
• Michael Saylor is actively promoting Bitcoin by sharing memes and telling others what to do, as seen in his tweets and replies, where he suggests people move their treasuries into Bitcoin (36m14s).
• Rumble's CEO announced plans to buy $20 billion worth of Bitcoin, and another company involved in Bitcoin mining is also selling loans or trying to do convertible debt (36m41s).
• There is an attempt to create a squeeze in the market, as there is only a limited amount of Bitcoin available, and some people are trying to take advantage of this situation (37m5s).
• Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has resumed his podcast and is appreciated for being a realistic Bitcoin maximalist who believes in Bitcoin without being a pumper (37m11s).

Notion - Try it for free today (37m31s)

• Notion is a highly valued tool that is used extensively throughout the day, and has been instrumental in building a company around it (37m32s).
• The tool has been integrated into various aspects of the company, including databases, calendars, and even ad reads, which are read from a Notion page (37m48s).
• The introduction of Notion into a company can lead to reduced stress levels among employees, as everything is documented, making it easier for new team members to learn new tasks and access information (37m58s).
• The addition of AI to Notion has enhanced its capabilities, allowing users to search across all of Notion and other apps, generate documents in their style, and analyze uploaded PDFs and images (38m8s).
• Notion's AI-powered features enable users to ask questions about the collected knowledge, making it a brilliant tool for organizations to retain information and prevent knowledge loss (38m30s).
• Notion is a favorite tool that keeps everything in one place, preventing knowledge loss, and is especially useful when team members retire or move on to other adventures (38m42s).
• A free trial of Notion can be accessed by visiting notion.com/twist, which offers a powerful and easy-to-use product for recording all data in one place (38m58s).
• Notion is being used extensively, including for personal and family office purposes, and is a valuable tool for preventing data loss (39m14s).

Diversification in investments and Michael Saylor's promotional tactics (39m22s)

• The discussion revolves around the concept of diversification in investments and the promotional tactics employed by Michael Saylor, who has created a leaderboard of the top 60 publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheet (40m2s).
• Michael Saylor's actions are seen as implicitly encouraging people to invest in these companies, which raises concerns about the potential risks involved and the lack of diversification in their investment portfolios (40m32s).
• The importance of diversification is emphasized, as having 95% of one's value in a single asset, such as Bitcoin or a crypto monkey, can be risky and may not provide a balanced investment strategy (41m15s).
• The quality of revenue is also discussed, with the example of Airbnb's revenue model being compared to that of NFTs, highlighting the difference in the value provided to customers and the sustainability of the revenue stream (41m44s).
• The value of NFTs is questioned, with the suggestion that they may only provide signaling prestige or status, rather than any tangible value, and that the quality of revenue from NFTs may not be sustainable in the long term (42m30s).
• The example of the Bored Ape Yacht Club is used to illustrate the potential risks of investing in NFTs, with the suggestion that the value of these assets may not be sustainable and that the revenue stream may not be of high quality (42m59s).

NFTs vs. traditional investments (43m28s)

• A $400,000 NFT for attending a party in Manhattan was considered a poor trade of value, as it didn't provide any substantial benefits, and the party itself wasn't appealing (43m29s).
• Benchmark's website is a good example of effective marketing, as it is simple and doesn't try to persuade or promote the company, reflecting the success of their investments (44m2s).
• Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, tweeted a clip about the potential of Bitcoin, using rocket ship emojis, which raised concerns about whether a publicly traded CEO should be promoting their company's holdings in such a way (44m27s).
• MicroStrategy announced a proposed private offering of $700 million in 0% convertible notes to acquire Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes, which is a strategy that could work as long as Bitcoin's value keeps increasing (45m11s).
• This strategy, however, carries risks, and the question of what could go wrong is a valuable one to ask when making financial decisions, especially when borrowing money at essentially no interest to invest in a volatile asset (45m50s).
• Asking questions about potential risks can lead to backlash, as seen in the reaction to a tweet asking what could go wrong with MicroStrategy's strategy (46m4s).
• Building a "religion" around an investment or asset may be a sign that something is being made up for, and it's essential to critically evaluate such investments (46m29s).

Sequoia's global deals search (46m47s)

• Pomp and Vinnie are invited to discuss a strategy on the show, possibly on Wednesday, to talk about a topic that's taking over a lot of cycles, with the host holding their Bitcoin and benefiting from it, but concerned about the potential consequences if more people follow suit (46m48s).
• The host is concerned about the market cap of Micro Strategies, which is 20% more than their Bitcoin holdings, and the potential debt load, which could become greater than the value of their holdings or equal to 50% of it (47m37s).
• The current debt load is around $7 billion out of $40 billion in holdings, which is a fifth of the total value, but the host is still concerned about the potential risks and prefers to own their own keys (48m2s).
• The host acknowledges that some people may be comfortable with a 20% leverage lifestyle, but they prefer a more conservative approach and appreciate the freedom to make their own choices in the free market (48m32s).
• Sequoia's Chinese arm, now called Hong Shan, is looking for global deals, but is having a hard time finding places to invest its capital, especially with its US dollar-denominated funds, due to difficulties in getting money in and out of China (48m44s).
• Sequoia had announced plans to split into three entities in June 2023, which was consummated in January, and its former Chinese unit is now struggling to deploy its capital and generate returns, with some complaints about the funds being raised but not deployed (48m57s).
• Hong Shan, a Chinese Venture Capital firm, is having difficulty deploying its US fund, with only 10 to 20% of its two later-stage funds invested, according to the Financial Times (50m35s).
• The firm has been quicker in deploying its earlier-stage fund, with 20 to 35% invested in its seed and venture funds (50m58s).
• The slow deployment of the US fund may be due to geopolitics, but it's also possible that there are more valuable and interesting deals occurring with new companies rather than established ones (51m11s).
• The firm's check size for later-stage investments is typically $50 million to $250 million, which requires finding companies with significant revenue, such as $50 million to $100 million in revenue (51m31s).
• Hong Shan is being judicious in its investments, but it's a challenging task, especially when comparing to seed rounds, which are typically $3 million (51m50s).
• The firm is opening offices in London and Tokyo to invest in Northern Asia and Europe, which will put them in competition with their former partners at Sequoia (53m4s).
• This expansion is good news for European investors, as they will have another entity with dollar-denominated funds to invest in their startups (53m33s).
• The story highlights the risks of having an investment thesis tied to one country, as Hong Shan is heavily influenced by the Chinese government and economy, which has been struggling (53m44s).
• A chart from McKenzie data shows that China's consumer confidence index has dramatically declined from about 130 points to about 86 points from 2020 to today (54m9s).
• Residential property transactions in China have also fallen significantly, from a peak of 125 points to about 55 points (54m29s).
• The decline in consumer confidence and residential property transactions in China may indicate massive problems in the country (54m31s).
• In contrast, the consumer confidence index in the United States is currently high, with people being optimistic since the election (54m55s).
• Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales in the US were reportedly up 10% year-over-year, with retail performing well (55m6s).

Consumer confidence, US and China economies, and debt discussion (55m11s)

• Consumer confidence in the US appears to be high, with retailers reporting "mob scenes" on Fridays and online marketplaces seeing significant growth, which could lead to increased credit card debt and decreased personal savings in the coming quarters (55m21s).
• A chart from the Fed's database shows a steep increase in consumer debt in the US, specifically credit cards and other revolving loans (56m27s).
• According to Adobe analytics data, Americans spent $10.8 billion on Black Friday alone, up 10%, and $6.1 billion on Thanksgiving sales, up 9% (56m42s).
• Total consumer debt in the US, including mortgages and credit cards, is approximately $17 trillion, with credit card debt and other revolving plans accounting for around $1 trillion (57m4s).
• Breaking down the total consumer debt, it translates to around $3,333 per person in the US, assuming a population of 300 million (57m48s).
• In comparison, the national debt per capita is $109,000, with the total US public debt being around $36 trillion (58m35s).
• Combining the average credit card debt and national debt per person, the total debt per person in the US would be approximately $115,000 (59m14s).
• The current economic situation is concerning, with a large amount of national and personal debt that needs to be paid off, requiring people to have jobs and create value in the world (59m25s).
• The total debt is estimated to be around $112,000 per person, with an annual interest payment of $5,000 to $6,000 per person, or $24,000 per year for a family of four (59m43s).
• This situation is disturbing, especially with high-interest rates, such as 15% to 20% on credit card debt, which can lead to a "death spiral" where it becomes difficult to pay off the debt (1h0m9s).
• The American Consumer is a concern in the near term, as they may be overextended with debt, while the US government's debt is a concern in the long term (1h0m30s).
• In the short term, consumers may struggle with paying off their debt, especially with high-interest rates, and may need to prioritize paying it down to avoid financial difficulties (1h0m55s).
• The possibility of job loss due to AI, offshoring, or "near shoring" (outsourcing to countries in the same time zone, such as South America, Canada, or Mexico) adds to the concern about the American Consumer's financial situation (1h1m36s).
• Near shoring is becoming increasingly popular, with companies like Lemon.io, a sponsor of the show, hiring developers in South America who work in the same time zone (1h2m2s).

Nearshoring trend, credit card delinquencies, and potential bankruptcies (1h2m9s)

• Nearshoring is becoming a trend, with companies hiring developers in countries like Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil, potentially leading to job losses in other countries (1h2m22s).
• The loss of jobs can lead to individuals relying on unemployment or partial employment, making it difficult to pay off credit card debt, which can have high interest rates (1h2m33s).
• This issue can be scaled up to the national level, where mass unemployment due to factors like AI taking jobs can lead to a similar debt spiral, with the government owing a large amount of money (1h2m50s).
• To address this, it's essential to ensure the economy continues to have people in productive jobs as it becomes more efficient, allowing for a sustainable standard of living (1h3m16s).
• A 10-year chart of credit card delinquencies shows an increase from 1.4% in 2015 to 3.24% currently, indicating a potential issue with consumer debt (1h3m39s).
• This increase in delinquencies could lead to bankruptcies, and creating a chart or model of credit card debt, delinquencies, and bankruptcies could help track this trend (1h4m20s).
• The health of the consumer, including their debt, is a crucial theme to monitor, and Bernie Sanders recently tweeted about the need to address waste and fraud in the Department of Defense (1h5m2s).
• The discussion highlights the importance of being aware of the debt-loaded health of the consumer and the potential consequences of mass unemployment and debt spirals (1h5m4s).

Bernie Sanders' stance on defense spending and populism (1h6m2s)

• Populism can sometimes lead to unexpected alliances, and a recent example of this is Bernie Sanders joining the party to address issues like reducing the national debt and finding waste in government spending (1h6m3s).
• To gain public support for reducing the national debt, it's essential to avoid the perception of crony capitalism, where the wealthy and powerful appear to be looking out for their own interests (1h6m16s).
• The public is skeptical of rich venture capitalists and CEOs who seem to be using their influence to get favorable treatment from the government, such as tax breaks and approvals for their projects (1h6m26s).
• To build a broad coalition, it's necessary to get people on board with reducing waste and finding common ground, which could include addressing issues like the carried interest tax and tax credits for solar energy (1h6m52s).
• Bernie Sanders' involvement in this effort is seen as a significant populist move, as it brings together Democrats and Republicans who are willing to question military spending and look for ways to reduce waste and fraud (1h6m59s).
• However, not all politicians will be on board, as some will be reluctant to challenge military spending due to the economic benefits it brings to their local constituents (1h7m15s).
• A good starting point for addressing waste and fraud is to look at areas where there have been repeated failures, such as the seven consecutive failed audits, and to identify low-hanging fruit like eliminating unnecessary jobs (1h7m36s).
• The goal is to find common ground that Americans can agree on, which is eliminating waste and fraud in government spending (1h7m56s).

Dogecoin leaderboard (1h8m2s)

• A proposal for the Doge leaderboard is being considered, which would involve having one person from each tax bracket as part of the group to avoid the appearance of self-dealing by wealthy investors (1h8m2s).
• The idea is to include people from different income levels, such as someone who makes $15,000 a year, someone who makes $45,000 a year, and a middle-class person, to ensure a diverse representation (1h8m32s).
• A whistleblower award system is also being suggested, where individuals who identify waste, fraud, or efficiency issues would receive a percentage of the savings, such as 10% for fraud, 5% for waste, and 1% for efficiency (1h8m48s).
• The idea is inspired by the SEC's whistleblower program, which rewards individuals for reporting wrongdoing (1h9m0s).
• An example of a company that has successfully implemented a similar system is Deep Sentinel, which uses remote operators to manage security cameras and can detect potential threats with the help of AI (1h9m31s).
• Deep Sentinel's system allows for one security guard to monitor multiple cameras, reducing the need for physical security personnel and increasing efficiency (1h10m6s).
• The system uses battery-powered cameras that can be easily installed, and AI-powered software that can detect suspicious activity and alert the security guard (1h10m24s).
• The security guard can then interact with the individual through a microphone and take action if necessary, such as calling the police or sounding an alarm (1h11m11s).
• A company called Density has a product called The Waffle, which can be used to track the number of people in office spaces, conference rooms, and other areas, potentially helping to identify unused space and reduce waste, with a cost of $150 per unit (1h11m56s).
• The use of such technology could help the US government save money by consolidating office space, with the potential to save taxpayers a significant amount of money, especially in cases where departments are reducing staff, such as the Department of Education (1h12m41s).
• There are two ways to think about money in this context: saving every dollar possible through incrementalism, and making larger cuts to address expenses, particularly in areas like Medicare (1h12m51s).
• Creating a culture of austerity and efficiency could lead to significant savings, with potential reductions of 5% in the first year, 10% in the second year, and 20% in the third year (1h13m22s).
• Companies like Density and Deep Sentinel offer products and services that could be 90% less expensive than current government spending, highlighting the potential for cost savings through the adoption of new technologies (1h13m57s).
• It is estimated that 15-20% of the total federal budget, excluding interest, is lost to waste, fraud, and incompetence, although some estimates may be as high as 25-50% (1h14m33s).
• Addressing these issues could lead to significant gains, with the potential for a president who prioritizes efficiency to be considered great, regardless of other controversies or issues (1h15m15s).
• A suggestion is made that a president could be remembered as great by all Americans and be forgiven for past chaos by taking a specific action, with the goal of leaving a better future for children (1h15m34s).
• There is a call for auditing the Pentagon and reducing costs, with an unlikely alliance of Elon Musk and Bernie Sanders supporting this cause (1h16m7s).
• A discussion about BYD and EVs is postponed until the next day due to time constraints (1h16m23s).
• A tweet with 33,000 views is referenced, with the author questioning the strategy of someone who apparently makes people richer, but is being taunted every day (1h16m40s).
• The conclusion drawn from this is unclear, but it is acknowledged that the success of a certain individual or strategy is desired, and failure could have negative consequences, such as having to sell off Bitcoin holdings (1h16m58s).

Bitcoin predictions and Bitcoin valuation (1h17m7s)

• A person who claims to be a big fan of the All In podcast sent a direct message to Jason, expressing interest in being a guest participant on the show to discuss Bitcoin, and Jason responded by asking for the person's email address (1h18m24s).
• Jason predicts that Bitcoin will correct to the $40,000 to $70,000 range again, which is historically what it has done, and when it does, the person's stock will correct, and people will lose faith in it (1h18m56s).
• Jason believes that a recession could lead to people needing money, causing an unraveling of the stock price, which could result in the stock price going down by half (1h19m31s).
• Jason makes a prediction that in the next 36 months, the stock price and the price of Bitcoin will both be at half their current value (1h19m48s).
• Jason suggests that if someone believes in Bitcoin, they should sell their shares and buy Bitcoin directly, or use the money to buy a big tech company that is not correlated to Bitcoin, or invest in a dividend-paying fund or an S&P 500 Index Fund (1h20m25s).
• Jason clarifies that he does not think the situation is a fraud, but rather a case of people not believing in it when the stock price corrects (1h20m54s).
• Michael Saylor's investment strategy is viewed as an "ultimate all-in bet" rather than a fraud or Ponzi scheme, where he is consolidating into one thing, although it is considered overvalued by a factor of double, warranting a premium of 10 or 20% on Bitcoin holdings (1h21m3s).
• Buying Bitcoin through a centralized group like Fidelity may not be decentralized, and it comes with a 0.25% annual fee for custodian services, which would be $250 per year for a $100,000 Bitcoin (1h21m32s).
• In contrast, buying GBTC (Mr. shares) would cost around $50,000 per Bitcoin if the actual price is $100,000, essentially paying double, and the buyer does not control the asset (1h22m4s).
• Upcoming content will feature interviews, cool startups, and various financial topics, with the hosts, Jason and Alex, returning energized and ready to discuss new subjects (1h22m24s).