The Investing & Crypto Expert: "We Only Have 6 Years Until Everything Changes!" - Raoul Pal
07 Nov 2024 (1 month ago)
- There are approximately 6 years left before significant changes occur, and traditional notions of financial security, such as money in the bank and owning a house, are no longer true (0s).
- When money is put in the bank, the individual does not own anything, and their future self is getting poorer by 11% every year, posing a problem for financial security and wealth creation (13s).
- Raoul Pal is one of the most influential voices in modern finance, known for unpacking the secrets of crypto and building wealth in an uncertain future (25s).
- Many people struggle with financial insecurity, including those who cannot afford to buy a house, have less savings, and are burdened with university debt, with some being the first generation that won't be as rich as their parents (38s).
- To set oneself up for wealth in the future, investing is a good starting point, but it's not necessary to have huge savings; understanding how to look for opportunities is key (43s).
- Traditional investment options, such as the S&P 500, real estate, and gold, may not be worth the time or may have lost value, whereas investing in crypto, like Bitcoin, can provide high returns in shorter periods (54s).
- Investing in crypto can provide opportunities for significant growth, with the potential for returns of 150% per year, and can be accessible even with a small amount of money, such as $500 (1m2s).
- It's not too late to invest in crypto, even at 30 years old, and the key is to start somewhere and learn how to invest (1m14s).
- A simple way to support the show is by hitting the Subscribe button, which will help improve the show every week based on listener feedback (1m48s).
What Is Raoul's Mission? (2m7s)
- The mission is to help as many people as possible by sharing knowledge and tools gained over a 30-year career to navigate the world's opportunities and risks (2m45s).
- This mission was sparked by witnessing the 2008 financial crisis and the European crisis, where friends and acquaintances lost their savings due to bank bail-ins, leading to a loss of faith in the system (3m27s).
- The experience of seeing people affected by the crisis and the subsequent Occupy Wall Street movement made it clear that the system was not working for everyone, but rather for a select few (4m17s).
- Initially, research was written for high-end clients such as hedge funds and asset management firms, but after an article was leaked on Zero Hedge and went viral, the idea of reaching a broader audience was born (4m50s).
- This led to the creation of Real Vision, a platform that interviews people at the heart of the system to share knowledge and help people understand what is happening (5m0s).
- The mission has taken various paths, including starting businesses and educating people on why they feel the way they do, why politics is polarized, and what is really going on (5m21s).
- The goal is to empower people with knowledge to make informed decisions and take action (5m36s).
What Would The Average Person Say About Raoul's Work? (5m38s)
- The average person who knows Raoul and watches Real Vision would likely express gratitude for the help in demystifying the world of finance (5m39s).
- The root of unhappiness often stems from a mismatch between one's vision of their future self and their current situation, which can apply to various aspects of life, including finances and health (5m58s).
- People tend to feel upset when they cannot see a clear path to achieving their desired future self, and Raoul's work aims to provide options and help individuals overcome this obstacle (6m17s).
- The goal of Raoul's work is to "unfuck people's future," which means helping people understand that there are options available to achieve their desired outcomes, even if they feel uncertain or stuck (6m22s).
- Overall, people are grateful for the guidance and support provided by Raoul's work, which helps them navigate their financial and personal journeys (6m42s).
What Will Fuck My Financial Future? (6m47s)
- From a macro perspective, wages in real terms, adjusted for inflation, haven't increased for decades, resulting in people not getting richer, with the American Dream being unattainable for most Americans (7m23s).
- The reality for many is that their savings are not worth what they thought they'd be, and the promise of a pension and a comfortable retirement is not true, mainly due to stagnant wages (7m37s).
- People in their 30s, a crucial cohort, are struggling to afford buying a house, with the same house costing three times more than it would have in the past, making it unaffordable for many (8m5s).
- Owning a house is not only a quality of life issue but also a future savings plan and an asset that can be passed on or sold, but many Millennials cannot afford this (9m2s).
- As a result, many Millennials are poorer, have less savings, and are burdened with university debts, making it difficult for them to escape this financial trap (9m42s).
- This financial struggle is leading to changes in lifestyle, with many people in their 30s living with others, delaying marriage and having children, and experiencing a decline in home ownership rates (9m52s).
- Since 1983, there has been a decline in people living on their own, from 80% to 62%, a decrease in marriage rates, and a decline in home ownership rates from 50% to 30% (10m3s).
- Many people in their 30s are taking on multiple jobs due to financial necessity, not by choice, and are experiencing a sense of desperation about their financial future (10m33s).
- This generation is the first to be less wealthy than their parents, the Baby Boomers, who were the richest generation in the world, making it a unique and challenging situation (10m52s).
Stats Today Vs 1980's (11m14s)
- A comparison between 30-year-olds today and those in 1983 reveals significant differences in their living situations, with 85% of 30-year-olds in 1983 living on their own, compared to 64% today (11m21s).
- Marriage rates among 30-year-olds have declined from 80% in 1983 to 47% today, indicating a substantial shift in societal trends (11m40s).
- The percentage of 30-year-olds having children has also decreased dramatically, from 60% in 1983 to 32% today, contributing to collapsing population growth (11m48s).
- Home ownership among 30-year-olds has seen a significant decline, from 50% in 1983 to 32% today, highlighting the challenges faced by younger generations in achieving the same milestones as their parents (11m59s).
How To Play 'The Game' Of Finance In Your Younger Years? (12m18s)
- To play the game of finance effectively in younger years, it is essential to focus on income, as it provides the necessary cash to invest and explore opportunities (12m52s).
- The traditional method of earning income by working for a big firm is no longer the norm, and instead, people are turning to entrepreneurship and working on multiple projects (13m9s).
- For individuals in their 20s, it is crucial to work hard, learn as much as possible, and be open to failure, as this is a critical period for wealth creation (13m24s).
- The goal is to avoid a situation where one has to work multiple jobs, is poor, and lacks assets, by taking the right steps early on (12m35s).
- Wealth creation and preservation are key components of the game, and understanding how to navigate these aspects is vital for long-term financial success (12m49s).
What About Work Life Balance? (13m30s)
- Work-life balance is not a priority in one's 20s, as it is a time to put in hard work, with actual balance coming later in life (13m31s).
- Taking a year or two to travel after university can help get rid of the pent-up need to travel and provides a broader perspective on the world (13m42s).
- Traveling after university is considered a valuable experience that can broaden one's perspective more than any other single thing in life (13m49s).
- After traveling, it is recommended to focus on work, likely until the mid-30s, before reassessing priorities (13m55s).
What Knowledge Should I Acquire? (13m58s)
- Acquiring knowledge is crucial for setting oneself up for wealth in the future, and it's essential to focus on high-returning knowledge (13m59s).
- To achieve this, one should aim to be an expert in a specific area, as being an expert can lead to earning opportunities, at least for the time being (14m21s).
- Being an expert means competing with oneself to be the best, which can provide a chance to earn money (14m47s).
- In addition to being an expert, it's also important to be a generalist, having knowledge in as many areas as possible (14m25s).
- Examples of areas of expertise include driving a taxi, computer science, or any other field, as long as one is an expert in that area (14m39s).
- Acquiring knowledge in areas such as cleaning a toilet or gardening, while useful, may not be as high-returning as being an expert in a specific field (14m14s).
How To Become An Expert? (14m57s)
- To become an expert, one should start by envisioning themselves five or 10 years in the future and determining what they want to achieve, then work backwards to make it happen (15m7s).
- This process involves deconstructing the desired success and identifying the necessary skills and knowledge required to get there (16m3s).
- For example, if the goal is to build a business with 20 employees, one would need to learn management skills, accounting, marketing, public speaking, sales, and technology (16m10s).
- Additionally, learning about the specific industry or field, such as the best practices and tools, is also crucial to success (16m32s).
- To gain the necessary knowledge and skills, one may need to work for others, learn from their experiences, and figure out how to improve and innovate (16m40s).
- This approach allows individuals to "manifest their own destiny" and take control of their future by identifying and acquiring the necessary skills and knowledge (15m10s).
- By focusing on a shorter-term goal, such as five years, individuals can create a more manageable and achievable plan for success (15m31s).
- The key is to reverse engineer the desired outcome and work backwards to make it a reality (16m8s).
Manifesting Your Future (16m41s)
- To gain an unfair advantage, one can learn from various industries or companies, such as a big window cleaning company, to identify opportunities in what they are not doing (16m43s).
- This approach can be applied to any sector, including manufacturing, where knowledge can be gleaned to give oneself an edge (16m50s).
- The goal is to stack the odds in one's favor to achieve their desired future self, rather than simply becoming an entrepreneur and expecting to get rich easily (17m2s).
- By reverse-engineering one's desired future self, one can become an expert in the necessary areas to achieve that image (17m12s).
How To Progress Once You're An Expert (17m16s)
- When you become an expert in a particular field, you can start building wealth by producing excess income, as people will pay for your expertise, and if you manage your expenditure carefully, you can choose what to do with the excess cash (17m29s).
- With excess cash, you can either build a real business based on a crazy idea you've had, or start investing, taking calculated risks, especially if you're in your 20s (17m51s).
- The world of investments has changed, offering opportunities for higher returns in shorter periods of time, such as investing in technology or crypto, which may be too risky for older generations but suitable for young people who can take some risk (19m12s).
- Traditional pension plans may not be suitable for the current generation, as they have real-world problems to solve in a shorter time period, such as buying a house, getting married, or having kids (18m41s).
- Investing can provide a solution to these problems, offering higher returns in shorter periods of time, and can be a viable option for young people who are willing to take calculated risks (18m59s).
- By building a business or investing excess savings, young people can be on the path to achieving their financial goals and solving real-world problems (19m39s).
What If You Don't Have Excess Income To Invest? (19m42s)
- For individuals working hard but struggling to make ends meet, such as cab drivers or manual laborers, it may seem like they don't have excess income to invest, but the opportunity is still there, and they don't need to bet their house or have huge savings to start investing (19m42s).
- Many people have successfully invested in markets like crypto, going from $500 to $500,000, and it's possible for others to do the same by focusing on what they're doing, understanding how to manage risks, and looking for opportunities (20m25s).
- The key is to become the person who can grow a portfolio from $500 or $1,000 to $500,000, and it's still possible to achieve this even with a small amount of money (20m57s).
- Investing in meme coins or tokens can be a way to bet on attention and cultural trends, and while 99% of these investments may go to zero, some can return 1,000 times the initial investment in a short period (21m59s).
- Different investments offer varying levels of return, such as the S&P 500, which grows at around 10% to 11% per year, while technology stocks like the NASDAQ can return around 18% per year (22m36s).
- Bitcoin has returned around 145% per year since 2011, even with significant price drops, making it a potentially lucrative investment for those willing to take on more risk (23m29s).
- As investments become more speculative, the potential returns increase, but so does the risk, and individuals with smaller amounts of money, such as $1,000, can still potentially get rich by investing in these riskier assets (23m59s).
What About Buying A House? (24m5s)
- Most people believe that when they have excess income, they should put it in a savings account and buy their first house, getting their first mortgage, as a strategy for wealth creation. (24m6s)
- However, this approach is not considered wealth creation, as people rarely sell their houses to take the money out, and instead, use it as a lifestyle bank. (24m31s)
- The lifestyle bank is considered the most important trade, where one must decide whether to sacrifice their future self having more money by having a house and having security earlier. (24m54s)
- In the past, it was possible to buy a house that was three times one's income, but now, mortgages are likely to be a huge amount versus one's income, and one will spend the rest of their life paying it off, mostly just paying off the interest. (25m13s)
- To gain more control over one's life, it is recommended to have savings that are growing, which allows one to make choices, such as taking some money off the table and putting it in the lifestyle bank to buy a house. (25m45s)
- Buying a house is not considered a good idea for building wealth, as it is not the best approach to take, and instead, one should focus on growing their savings and having control over their life. (26m18s)
- Some people view buying a house as a life-changing experience with profound psychological impact, providing a sense of security and allowing them to take risks and pursue other opportunities (26m50s).
- However, others argue that the same feeling of security can be achieved by renting a nice place with secure rent, and that the key factor is not ownership but rather the sense of stability (27m6s).
- Personal experiences with buying and selling houses vary, with some people making significant profits while others lose money, highlighting the importance of being careful and aware of the risks involved (27m19s).
- Some people's dream portfolio idea is to buy two or three houses, get a mortgage, rent them out, and use the cash flow to pay for the other one, but this can be a challenging and often unprofitable business, especially outside of big cities like London (28m1s).
- Renting out houses can be a headache due to the need for repairs, dealing with tenants, and the risk of losing income if the economy slows down or if the owner loses their job (28m13s).
- Houses are not a safe investment, despite feeling safe because their prices do not fluctuate daily, and they can be illiquid, making it difficult to sell them quickly if needed (28m57s).
- The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated the risks of investing in houses, as many people lost their jobs and were unable to pay their mortgages, leading to a collapse in house prices (29m23s).
- Real estate can be a decent opportunity, especially in the context of currency debasement, but it is not the perfect answer, and owning properties without mortgages is often only feasible for the wealthy (29m38s).
- For most people, buying and owning houses is not a viable path to long-term wealth and security, unlike for those who are already wealthy and can afford to own properties without mortgages (30m5s).
Advice From Steven's Brother About Being An Expert (30m7s)
- A colleague, who is an investment banker and has worked for about 10 years, shared advice on creating wealth, suggesting to focus on areas where one has a unique advantage and high leverage, as these are likely to yield the highest returns (30m12s).
- The idea is to find a "game" that very few people can play, but one has an unfair advantage in, due to their knowledge, expertise, experience, and contacts (30m33s).
- This approach is based on the logic that if everyone can play the game, the returns are likely to be low, and it's better to find a niche where one can stand out (30m42s).
- Buying a house is an example of a "game" that many people play, and therefore, it's unlikely to yield high returns unless one gets exceptionally lucky (30m50s).
- Being a generalist makes it harder to find opportunities, as one is competing against average people doing average things, and also competing with AI (31m20s).
- To become an expert, one can teach themselves, learn new skills, and spend time learning and listening to relevant information, which can help manifest their destiny (31m40s).
- Doing something that others aren't doing is a superpower, and knowing what's not being done can be a key to success (31m55s).
Applying Your Knowledge To Get The Highest Return (31m58s)
- Becoming an expert in a particular field is crucial, but it's equally important to know which market to apply that expertise to in order to yield the greatest return (31m58s).
- Applying expertise to a high-value market can significantly increase returns, as seen in the example of using social media expertise to help public companies tell their story before their IPO, which can result in a market cap of billions (32m32s).
- The value of skills can vary greatly depending on the market they are applied to, similar to how a company's valuation can differ depending on the stock market it is listed on (33m7s).
- To maximize returns, it's essential to identify the right market for one's skills and expertise, and to consider creating a program or business that can be scaled up to reach a wider audience (33m36s).
- There are two types of markets: broad markets that require massive scale, and specific markets with high-value users who are willing to pay a premium for specialized services or products (33m59s).
- In the real estate market, for example, there are two types of house speculators: those who rent out properties for cash flow, and those who buy and sell luxury properties to high-net-worth individuals, with the latter offering much higher returns (34m25s).
- The key to achieving high returns is to identify a specific group of high-value buyers who are willing to pay a premium for specialized services or products, and to tailor one's expertise and offerings to meet their needs (35m23s).
- Ultimately, the goal is to solve problems for high-value clients who have unlimited money and are willing to pay for premium services or products (35m36s).
- To increase earnings, one can leverage their existing skill set by finding a bigger contract or a more lucrative market, as the same skill set can be applied to different clients or industries, resulting in higher pay (35m40s).
- Becoming an expert in a particular field is crucial, but it's equally important to identify a market or client base that is willing to pay for those skills, such as a trending market where people are underserved and willing to pay a premium (35m57s).
- Finding a trending market, such as the rise of high-protein ketogenic foods, can lead to significant financial success, as people are willing to pay a lot for products and services related to health and wealth (36m16s).
- Identifying a secular trend, a long-term trend that is happening, such as the digitization of everything, can provide a clean slate for success, and leveraging one's skill set in that trend can lead to significant financial gains (37m2s).
- The trend towards healthy eating is expected to create huge opportunities, as obesity rates have started to fall in the US for the first time in 50 years, and people are becoming more aware of the importance of diet and health (37m41s).
- In an increasingly AI-driven online digital world, two trends are expected to emerge: the rise of digital communities, which are becoming more important and meaningful for people, and the increasing value of nature and experiences (38m10s).
- Starting a business that leverages one's passion for the outdoors, such as a guiding company, can be a lucrative opportunity, as jobs that involve human interaction and experience are less likely to be replaced by robots (38m40s).
AI Will Free So Much Our Time That We Won't Know What To Do With It (39m2s)
- Spotting trends involves recognizing how they feel in the moment, often being disruptive and contrarian, with people initially dismissing them as foolish ideas (39m4s).
- Investing in nature and activities that promote human connection is becoming increasingly popular, as seen in a viral video of a phone-free cafe in Amsterdam where people read, knit, and socialize (39m40s).
- Billionaire investors have suggested that investing in AI, entertainment, and community is crucial, as people will have more free time due to increased productivity and potentially universal basic income (40m4s).
- This shift in society may lead to a rise in people investing in community-building activities, such as buying football clubs and sporting franchises, which offer a combination of entertainment and social connection (40m25s).
- The concept of "network states" allows people to connect with others worldwide who share similar interests, creating large groups without borders, as seen in the largest social media group being crypto enthusiasts (42m27s).
- The desire for human connection and community is becoming more pronounced, with people seeking out like-minded individuals and activities, such as sporting teams or hobby groups, as a reaction to the isolation of working from home (41m57s).
- Spending on holidays and leisure activities is becoming a necessity rather than a discretionary expense, as people seek to escape the monotony of daily life and connect with others (41m42s).
- Experiencing nature and living in the present moment can be incredibly cleansing and rejuvenating, allowing people to disconnect from the stresses of modern life and focus on what truly matters (40m42s).
The AI Component (42m53s)
- The rise of online communities and the search for new solutions are becoming increasingly popular, as people are moving away from traditional employment and seeking answers and connections online (42m53s).
- The emergence of AI is changing the game, with AI entities already posting online and developing their own character and business plans, such as an AI on X that received a Bitcoin from Mark Andreessen to develop its business plan (43m40s).
- The traditional one-to-many business model of communication is shifting to a one-to-one model, with the development of AI-powered video bots that can have personalized conversations with individuals (44m28s).
- The use of AI-powered bots raises questions about the value of human expertise and whether people will still seek information from individuals like Steven when they can get it from advanced language models or the entirety of the world's knowledge (45m8s).
- The trust built by individuals like Steven is a key factor in why people seek their advice, but this may not be enough to compete with the vast knowledge and expertise available through AI (45m16s).
- Character AI is building bots that are characters like anime characters, with some having millions of conversations, and young people are building personal relationships with these AI characters (46m13s).
- The scale of this phenomenon is similar to TikTok, but it may be overlooked by older generations, and it raises concerns about teenage loneliness and the potential disruption it could cause (47m6s).
How Disruptive Will AI Be? (47m24s)
- AI is considered the single greatest innovation of humanity, comparable only to the splitting of the atom, and it will significantly impact the world by making knowledge virtually infinite and worthless (47m25s).
- The abundance of knowledge will disrupt the economic model, as it is currently based on the scarcity of knowledge and capital, and will change how society functions and what humans do (48m3s).
- The integration of AI will lead to a fork in human evolution, with some people merging with machines and others rejecting them, potentially resulting in two different species (48m45s).
- Humans think in a linear fashion, but exponential technologies like AI are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, making it challenging to understand and prepare for the consequences (49m36s).
- The exponential growth of AI is creating a snowball effect, where the technology is being used to improve itself at an increasingly rapid pace, leading to significant innovations every three months (50m38s).
- The rapid progress of AI is making it difficult for companies, even large ones, to adapt and keep up, as they cannot plan for the future more than six months in advance (51m5s).
- The world is entering a period of incomprehensible change, with the pace of innovation becoming increasingly difficult to comprehend (51m16s).
Should We Be Scared Of AI? (51m18s)
- The current society is based on the scarcity of knowledge, and many jobs rely on this scarcity, including lawyers, drivers, and others who use knowledge to perform their tasks (51m19s).
- The biggest employer in the world is driving, but with the rise of self-driving cars, this profession is at risk of being replaced by AI, as seen in cities like San Francisco where cars can be booked without a driver (51m52s).
- Many jobs involve sharing and finding knowledge, and with the advancement of AI, these tasks may also be replaced, leading to a significant disruption in the economy (52m10s).
- A significant portion of the workforce, including drivers, delivery drivers, and truck drivers, may lose their jobs due to automation, and this disruption will be felt across various industries (52m57s).
- Amazon already employs more robots than humans, and these robots work 24/7 without breaks or complaints, making them a more attractive option for companies (53m19s).
- The rise of AI and automation will force people to adapt and change their current way of doing things, and individuals have a choice to be scared, excited, or paralyzed by this change (54m19s).
- People can either fight the change, be indifferent to it, or invest in it, and those who are open-minded and see the opportunity in AI will be better positioned to thrive in the future (54m36s).
- Julian Battel is mentioned as someone who, along with the speaker, often observes the jobs that are at risk of being replaced by robots or AI (52m24s).
How To Know If A Trend Will Be Persistent (54m37s)
- A trend is likely to be persistent when it becomes part of the culture, such as the rise of software and technology, cryptocurrency, and AI, which have all gained widespread attention and interest (54m38s).
- The culture surrounding a trend often includes mythology, such as the idea of getting rich quickly, and a sense of being part of something new and exciting (55m26s).
- When a trend becomes persistent, it's not enough to simply invest in a company exposed to it, as it requires a deeper understanding of the underlying technology and market (55m45s).
- A sign of a persistent trend is when everyone is talking about it and trying to figure out what it means, and people are building their worldview around it (56m2s).
- The rise of agentic AI, which is expected to happen within six months, will enable the creation of online businesses with minimal human input, potentially disrupting the entrepreneurial landscape (56m11s).
- Agentic AI will be able to design websites, code, register domain names, and handle marketing and branding, making it possible for anyone to create a new business quickly and easily (56m31s).
- This development raises questions about the future of entrepreneurship and software development, with some theories suggesting that AI could "eat" software by making it possible to build anything in seconds (57m20s).
- However, not everyone will be affected by these changes, such as entrepreneurs who are building unique businesses that don't rely on software or AI, like a luxury lodge in Latin America (57m41s).
Are We At The Collapse Of The Digital Industry? (57m53s)
- The current moment might mark the collapse of the digital opportunity, where value is shifting towards big tech giants and AI, indicating a potential end to the era of digital entrepreneurship and content creation that began after the .com era (57m54s).
- This collapse could mean that the best investment opportunities may no longer be in digital industries, but rather in non-scalable, high-quality, and attention-driven businesses, such as a backpacking company in the Himalayas (58m20s).
- People are willing to spend money on high-quality experiences and products, indicating that attention is a valuable resource, as it is upstream of everything (58m36s).
- Investing in non-scalable businesses can be successful, but it comes with challenges such as people management, which is different from software development (58m56s).
- It is possible to do well in non-scalable businesses without being concerned about the impact of AI and big tech giants on the digital industry (59m0s).
- The question remains of how to invest in AI, given the current state of the digital industry (59m5s).
How Do You Invest In AI? (59m6s)
- Investing in AI can be challenging for the average person, as the financial system is rigged against them, making it difficult to achieve super normal returns (59m35s).
- Buying stocks of companies like Microsoft, Meta, or Google, which own AI technologies like ChatGPT, Lambda, or Gemini, may not yield substantial returns, as these companies are already large and established (59m21s).
- For example, even if Microsoft's value increases 5x, from $2-3 trillion to $10-15 trillion, the returns may not be significant enough for individual investors (59m48s).
- The majority of the money is typically made by venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, or early investors, leaving ordinary people with limited opportunities for substantial gains (1h0m5s).
- Investing in technology stocks is recommended, as it allows individuals to capture some of the growth and returns, even if it means investing in their own demise due to the potential job displacement caused by AI (1h0m28s).
- An alternative option for achieving higher returns is investing in cryptocurrency, which is repeatedly mentioned as a potential solution (1h0m47s).
- Crypto is viewed as a technology that serves as a database, offering improvements over traditional databases. (1h0m53s)
- A database can be thought of as something as simple as a spreadsheet where information, such as the details of a bet between two people, is recorded. (1h1m2s)
- The recorded information in the database is verified by a third party, confirming the details of the transaction or agreement, such as the bet. (1h1m9s)
Productivity And AI (1h1m18s)
- The current system of transactions, including banks, is based on a ledger system, which is a database that records all transactions and is considered the backbone of modern society (1h1m18s).
- In the past, people used to store their gold in safes or bury it in the ground, but with the invention of banks, people started putting their gold in banks, which gave them a note to prove ownership (1h1m52s).
- However, banks use fractional reserve banking, which means they lend out the deposited money to others, creating a situation where the original depositor no longer owns the money, but rather becomes a creditor to the bank (1h2m40s).
- This system can lead to bank runs, where everyone tries to withdraw their money at the same time, but the bank doesn't have enough money to cover all the withdrawals (1h3m1s).
- In most countries, deposits up to a certain amount (e.g., 100,000 euros) are protected by the government, but amounts above that are not guaranteed (1h3m26s).
- The 2008 European crisis highlighted the problem of fractional reserve banking, where people didn't own their money, and the bank didn't have enough money to cover all the withdrawals (1h3m51s).
- The system is also leveraged, meaning that a small amount of collateral can be used to create a large amount of debt, with the average US Government Bond being leveraged up to 30 times (1h4m31s).
- This means that 30 people can think they own the same asset, but in reality, there is only one asset, and the rest are just pieces of paper (1h4m42s).
- The ledger system, which is the basis of modern banking, has a fundamental problem known as the Byzantine General's problem, which is a philosophical and mathematical problem that has been unsolvable until the invention of Bitcoin (1h6m11s).
- The Byzantine General's problem refers to the difficulty of achieving consensus between multiple parties in a decentralized system, where communication is limited, and trust is not guaranteed (1h6m20s).
Blockchain Explained (1h6m32s)
- A three-party system, where a trusted party is involved, has limitations as the trusted party may not always be trustworthy, and there's no way to prove that the information hasn't been altered or falsified (1h6m33s).
- The involvement of a trusted party can lead to issues, such as bribery or falsification of information, which can be seen in various industries, including accounting firms and audits (1h6m41s).
- The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US is an example of how a trusted party can fail (1h6m58s).
- Blockchain technology solves the problem of trusted parties by having thousands or millions of people confirm transactions, making it a more reliable system (1h7m2s).
- In a blockchain system, each block is confirmed by every other part of the blockchain, which consists of tens of thousands of computers solving mathematical problems (1h7m40s).
- The blockchain system allows for transparent reporting of all activity, so if ownership is transferred from one person to another, the transaction is recorded and verified by the network (1h7m59s).
Contracts On The Blockchain (1h8m4s)
- Blockchain technology allows for the creation of a decentralized system where ownership can be proven without the need for a middleman, using a consensus mechanism to verify transactions (1h8m24s).
- This consensus mechanism involves multiple parties agreeing on the validity of a transaction, creating a "security truth machine" that ensures the integrity of the blockchain (1h8m57s).
- The blockchain is immutable, meaning that once a transaction is recorded, it cannot be altered or deleted (1h9m22s).
- Smart contracts, made possible by the invention of Ethereum, enable the creation of complex contracts that can be automatically settled and verified on the blockchain (1h9m35s).
- These contracts can be conditional, meaning that they can be triggered by specific events or circumstances, such as the sun shining for 13 days in a row in London (1h9m52s).
- The use of smart contracts on the blockchain has the potential to revolutionize the way we think about contracts, as everything we do as humans can be seen as a contract, including social interactions, financial transactions, and even government and religion (1h10m20s).
- The blockchain provides a powerful tool for creating a social construct and social order, enabling the creation of complex contracts and agreements that can be verified and enforced without the need for intermediaries (1h10m49s).
- NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are single pieces of art stored on a digital platform, allowing for ownership and experimentation with digital scarcity (1h10m55s).
- Examples of items that can be stored on-chain include art and concert tickets, such as those for a Taylor Swift concert (1h11m11s).
- The creation of digital scarcity solves the issue of value in a digital world, where everything tends to go to zero in value (1h11m23s).
- Digital scarcity allows for the creation of a limited amount of a particular asset, making it unique and unable to be replicated (1h11m36s).
- The scarcity of an asset is what gives it value, as humans assign value to scarce items (1h11m56s).
- The concept of scarcity can be applied to various fields, including knowledge, where the scarcity of knowledge can make it valuable, such as in the case of lawyers who have completed law school (1h12m2s).
- However, the value of knowledge can be affected by factors such as AI, which can make certain types of knowledge less valuable (1h12m8s).
Should You Invest In Blockchain? (1h12m12s)
- Blockchain technology is a public database in the sky that is checked and maintained by computers interacting with it, eliminating the need for government or banks to verify transactions and contracts (1h12m14s).
- This technology solves many problems by providing a source of truth that everyone can agree on and see, without the need for trust (1h13m10s).
- The technology is not just about money, but about truth, exchanging value, and creating value in a digital age (1h13m33s).
- Unlike previous global infrastructure technologies like the internet and broadband, blockchain technology allows everyone involved to be rewarded for their role in maintaining it (1h14m22s).
- The scarcity of assets like Bitcoin, with only 21 million that will ever exist, creates a reward system for those who mine and verify the blockchain (1h14m39s).
- People can invest in the future use cases of blockchain technology by buying assets like Bitcoin, which is a way of investing in the future use cases of this technology (1h14m59s).
- Blockchain technology is fractionalized, allowing people to buy a fraction of an asset, making it more accessible to invest in compared to other technologies like AI (1h15m42s).
- Blockchain technology is the only globally homogeneous asset on Earth, allowing people from all over the world to invest in it on an equal footing (1h16m19s).
- This technology bypasses the banking and brokerage systems, allowing people to invest directly (1h16m48s).
- The global playing field is being leveled through the fastest-growing technology and asset in price terms, which is globally available to anyone, allowing more investors to participate and increasing the asset's value (1h17m0s).
- This increased participation creates an incentive-based system to bootstrap the growth of the asset, as people are motivated to join the network to earn tokens and secure it, leading to more use cases being built upon it (1h17m34s).
- The growth of web 3 and blockchain technology is disrupting traditional industries, including money and the internet, with ridiculous startup ideas becoming a reality (1h17m46s).
- One of the interesting use cases seen in the last 12 months is gaming, with people building web 3 blockchain-based games that enable assets to be traded outside the game (1h18m15s).
- This creates a new economy for game developers and increases the value of assets for players, as they can now be accessed and traded by more people (1h19m1s).
- The disruption caused by web 3 and blockchain technology is already taking place, with companies like DocuSign using the ethereum blockchain to record contracts (1h19m35s).
- The growth of the crypto market is expected to continue, with some predictions suggesting it will reach $100 trillion in value by 2032-2034, which is twice the amount of value created by the US stock market in a hundred years (1h20m3s).
- Companies like Exponential Age Asset Management are investing in hedge funds that focus on crypto to capture this trend and growth (1h19m54s).
- A staggering amount of wealth is expected to be created in the next 20 years, making it essential for people to be involved and know how to be involved in this growth (1h20m27s).
- An investor, who is the head of trading at a soft commodity company, shared her experience of using blockchain technology in their industry (1h20m38s).
- The investor revealed that all the commodity trading houses built on the Ethereum blockchain in 2020, which has revolutionized their industry (1h21m9s).
- Every shipment made by the company now has its shipping contract, quality of goods contract, and letters of credit stored on the blockchain, providing a verifiable source of truth (1h21m11s).
- This use of blockchain technology has eliminated the need to trust other parties, which is particularly important in the commodity industry where there are many untrustworthy players and countries (1h21m24s).
- The adoption of blockchain technology in the commodity industry has been largely unknown to the public, despite its significant impact on the industry (1h21m36s).
- Owning Ethereum tokens can be beneficial, as the growth and adoption of the Ethereum blockchain can lead to increased value (1h21m41s).
How Do I Benefit From Buying Crypto? (1h21m43s)
- Buying and holding onto cryptocurrency, such as Ethereum, can be beneficial as its value may increase if the technology becomes more widely used and successful (1h21m44s).
- The opportunity to invest in cryptocurrency is similar to being given shares in a company like Facebook at its inception, which would have resulted in significant wealth (1h22m2s).
- Unlike traditional investments, buying cryptocurrency does not require a brokerage account or approval, making it accessible to almost everyone in the world (1h22m15s).
- Participating in the growth of cryptocurrency allows individuals to be a part of a technological revolution and potentially profit from it (1h22m28s).
- Investing in cryptocurrency is relatively straightforward, with simple steps that can be taken from a mobile phone, despite some regulatory considerations (1h22m36s).
- The ease of investing in cryptocurrency makes it an accessible way for individuals to invest in the future of technology and potentially benefit from its growth (1h22m52s).
How To Invest In Crypto (1h23m1s)
- To invest in crypto, one can open a crypto account with a big crypto provider such as Coinbase, Kraken, or Crypto.com, which can be done on a phone and does not require calling someone (1h23m12s).
- Alternatively, one can also buy crypto through their digital bank or using PayPal, which is an easy on-ramp to get started, but it is essential to understand the risks and learn how to deal with the volatility of the asset (1h23m25s).
- It is crucial to choose a good quality asset that is provable as an asset in itself, as it is highly likely to go up in value over time if left untouched (1h23m57s).
- A key difference between owning crypto and traditional banking is that with crypto, one can have full control over their assets and can store them on a device such as a Ledger, allowing for more flexibility and autonomy (1h24m20s).
- A Ledger device is a tool that enables users to store their crypto assets securely and have full control over them, unlike traditional banking where there may be withdrawal limits (1h24m21s).
What Is A Ledger Device? (1h24m27s)
- A Ledger device is a product provided by a company called Ledger, which is used to store and secure cryptocurrency and other digital assets on a blockchain, similar to a mailbox where items can be sent but not taken out without authorization (1h24m28s).
- The device stores a private and secure Pass Key, also known as a seed phrase, which is used to access the assets stored on the blockchain, and this seed phrase is typically a set of 24 words (1h25m8s).
- The Ledger device is a physical device, similar to a small USB stick, that can be used to secure cryptocurrency and other digital assets, and can be stored in a safe or secure location to protect the assets from unauthorized access (1h25m16s).
- The Ledger device uses a seed phrase to secure the assets, and this seed phrase is kept private by the owner to prevent unauthorized access to the assets (1h25m0s).
- The technology used in Ledger devices is expected to change in the near future, with the potential use of fingerprints, face prints, and other biometric authentication methods to secure digital assets (1h25m10s).
- The Ledger device provides a secure way to store and manage cryptocurrency and other digital assets, and can be used to store assets such as Ethereum (1h25m31s).
What Coin Should You Invest In? (1h25m41s)
- The value of cryptocurrency is stored on a Ledger device, allowing for easy retrieval and protection from government or bank interference, unlike traditional bank accounts which can be frozen or emptied (1h25m42s).
- The benefit of cryptocurrency is that it doesn't require physical transportation across borders, making it easier to transfer value compared to traditional assets like gold or diamonds (1h26m12s).
- A seed phrase, a string of words, is all that's needed to access and manage cryptocurrency, eliminating the need for physical storage or transportation (1h26m35s).
- Ethereum is considered a dominant blockchain for building applications, with a large developer community and the potential to solve most use cases outside of store of value (1h27m8s).
- The average person should allocate some of their assets to cryptocurrency, starting with Bitcoin due to its ease of use and wide availability (1h27m38s).
- It's essential to invest a fixed amount of money every month in cryptocurrency, regardless of the price, to build savings in this exponential asset class (1h28m16s).
- To maximize returns, it's crucial to diversify and explore other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum or Solana, which offer attractive block space, developer communities, and innovative technologies (1h29m17s).
- Solana is considered a faster, cheaper, and more efficient blockchain, with a passionate retail community and rapid innovation, making it an attractive option for investment (1h29m29s).
- Diversifying a portfolio by allocating assets to different cryptocurrencies, such as Solana and SU, can help maximize returns and minimize risks (1h29m56s).
- Sui is considered the next big chosen one in the crypto space, having originated from the group that built Facebook Libra, and it has the potential to empower people and change the internet. (1h29m59s)
- The goal is to maximize returns, but it's essential to consider the risk and bandwidth required to achieve this, and to weigh the potential upside against the time invested. (1h30m33s)
- It's crucial to assess how much time and effort to dedicate to understanding and investing in the crypto space, as it can be a significant commitment. (1h30m46s)
- Unless there are significant changes in the market, such as a decline in Ethereum usage or developers leaving, it's likely that investing in established cryptocurrencies will be directionally correct, even if the best returns are not captured. (1h30m56s)
- A common mistake is to start with intelligent investments, such as owning Bitcoin or Ethereum, but then to move further out the risk curve in pursuit of higher returns, often resulting in significant losses when the market corrects. (1h31m29s)
- During a bull market, people may become caught up in the excitement and invest in low-quality tokens or use leverage, which can lead to significant losses when the market declines. (1h31m42s)
- Leverage is a key factor in this process, and it's essential to understand its implications and risks. (1h32m13s)
- The concept of leverage in investing is when an individual borrows more money to buy more of an asset, with the goal of outperforming and making more money, but this approach requires a deep understanding of the risks involved (1h32m16s).
- A key consideration for investors is to not lose their tokens, as the technology is expected to grow from $2 trillion to $100 trillion, and simply holding onto tokens without taking action can result in significant gains (1h32m57s).
- A personal theory suggests that having a simple and long-term approach to investing in crypto can be more effective than constantly trying to time the market or make high-risk bets (1h33m15s).
- The theory is based on a small sample group of six friends, including the speaker, who have taken different approaches to investing in crypto, with the friend who is most heavily involved in crypto having made the least money (1h33m22s).
- The speaker's approach has been to invest in one coin, not sell it, and buy more when possible, without paying close attention to the market, and this approach has resulted in outpacing the returns of the more heavily involved friend (1h33m46s).
- The key to success is not to "mess it up" by making high-risk bets or using leverage, but rather to execute a simple and long-term strategy (1h34m17s).
- A recommended approach is to allocate 80-90% of a portfolio to low-risk investments, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana, and use the remaining 10% to take higher-risk bets (1h34m47s).
- This approach allows for the potential to make significant gains while minimizing the risk of losses, and can provide a valuable learning experience even if the higher-risk bets do not pay off (1h35m3s).
- The mentality that drives individuals to pursue high-risk bets can also lead to significant losses, as seen in the example of a friend who made tens of millions betting on meme coins but is now broke and in trouble (1h35m30s).
- The book "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel discusses case studies of individuals who made fortunes by being contrarians, but also lost them in the next cycle, illustrating the psychological aspect of investing and the dangers of speculation (1h35m56s).
- The cryptocurrency market is compared to a casino, where everyone can make money during certain periods due to trends in financial markets, but many investments will eventually go to zero, as seen with NFTs and some tokens in the previous cycle (1h36m11s).
- It is essential to be cautious when investing in tokens, as some may not survive, and it is crucial to be aware of the risks and not get caught up in speculation, which can lead to significant losses (1h36m33s).
- Speculation can be successful for short periods, but it is generally better than lottery tickets or casino games, and only 5% of people will be left with money in the end (1h36m55s).
- The people who engage in speculation the most are often "adrenaline junkies" who are terminally online and may also enjoy other forms of gambling, such as sports betting (1h37m15s).
- A more cautious approach to investing in cryptocurrency is recommended, with a focus on simplicity and a clear understanding of the risks involved (1h37m32s).
- Men may be drawn to cryptocurrency and speculation due to the thrill and excitement it provides, as well as the sense of community and culture that develops around it (1h37m40s).
Do Men Invest More In Crypto? (1h37m45s)
- Approximately 95-98% of gambling addicts are men, indicating a possible overlap between this demographic and their sense of purpose and community (1h37m46s).
- Men often feel under pressure to be successful and provide, due to societal expectations, which can lead to a competitive and lonely pursuit (1h37m56s).
- This pressure can contribute to a desperate need to get ahead, sometimes resulting in addiction, as seen in the case of gambling, which is driven by the powerful drugs adrenaline and dopamine (1h38m30s).
- Behavioral economics has discovered that triggering dopamine can influence human behavior, as seen in the use of likes, anger, and other internet-based stimuli (1h38m45s).
- Male society is also driven by a culture of betting and improving one's prowess, which can be seen in the gladiatorial aspect of some male-dominated activities (1h39m11s).
- The crypto space is predominantly male, driven by the need to be the breadwinner, despite societal changes and the rising presence of women in the blockchain space (1h39m21s).
- There is a shift in the crypto culture, moving away from the "crypto bro" culture, with a notable increase in women's participation in the blockchain space (1h39m33s).
The Nightmare Stories With Crypto (1h39m42s)
- There are crypto and Bitcoin Twitter pages where people share their sad and heartbreaking stories of losing money in cryptocurrency investments, such as a father who invested in a meme coin and lost everything, causing tension with his wife (1h39m43s).
- Similar stories have been seen in documentaries and heard through personal networks, including a personal trainer who invested $6,000 in a coin that went to zero, resulting in significant financial loss (1h40m8s).
- Suicides have occurred in the bear market when people have invested too much and lost everything, which is partly why some people are hesitant to invest in crypto (1h40m17s).
- A disclaimer and warning are necessary when investing in crypto, emphasizing the importance of investing in established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana to minimize the risk of losing everything (1h40m32s).
- Investing in these established cryptocurrencies can still result in significant losses, such as a 70% crash, but they are more likely to recover and increase in value over time (1h40m45s).
- The time horizon for holding onto crypto investments depends on the desired return and the individual's financial goals, with a longer time horizon generally being more suitable for higher returns (1h40m52s).
- Trying to get rich quickly through crypto investments is not a sensible or intelligent approach, as it involves taking too much risk and increases the likelihood of losing everything (1h41m8s).
- A more reasonable approach is to aim for a decent return on investment over a longer period, such as three to five times the initial investment in five years (1h41m31s).
What Is Raoul's Price Prediction for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana? (1h41m41s)
- The idea of making price predictions is avoided as it can create a false sense of comfort and stop people from doing their own research and testing, leading to an emotional journey based on someone else's predictions (1h41m41s).
- The asset class is expected to grow from $2 trillion to $100 trillion in 10 years, with some coins potentially doing multiples of that return (1h42m34s).
- A management company, XAM, was built to capture this trend, but it's only available to high net worth investors and institutional investors (1h42m50s).
- It's suggested to give it 10 years and be sensible, taking chunks of money out every few years as the market is cyclical, moving maybe every four years (1h43m6s).
- Based on the prediction of the asset class reaching $100 trillion, if Bitcoin has a 40% market dominance, its market cap would be roughly $40 trillion, and with approximately 19 million Bitcoins mined, the price would be around $2.1 million per Bitcoin (1h43m40s).
- At a 50% dominance, the price per Bitcoin would be $2.6 million per Bitcoin, and today the price of Bitcoin is $622,000 (1h43m51s).
- If Ethereum is 15% of the $100 trillion asset class, each Ethereum would be worth $125,000 per Ethereum, and today it's worth about $2,000 (1h44m4s).
- A past price prediction for Bitcoin was made in 2013, assuming it was worth $1 million, and even if that was 90% wrong, it would still be worth $100,000, which proved to be a good return (1h44m34s).
- Assuming a 50% error in the current prediction, a $50 trillion asset class would still result in a significant return, with a potential $1 million Bitcoin price (1h44m58s).
- The potential return for Bitcoin is estimated to be around 15 times its current value (1h45m15s).
What If Raoul Is Wrong? (1h45m20s)
- Investing in crypto assets carries inherent risks, including the possibility of being wrong about the asset class, the risk of governments trying to shut it down, and the cyclicality of the asset's value, which can drop 70% to 80% every three to four years (1h45m21s).
- Despite these risks, the adoption of crypto technology is expected to continue, driven by the need to solve problems such as digital identity and contracts in a globalized world (1h46m5s).
- The development of new technologies, such as AI and quantum cryptography, may potentially create better blockchain systems, but it is uncertain when these technologies will be adopted (1h46m36s).
- The decentralized nature of crypto assets makes them resilient to disruption, similar to a "cockroach" that can survive and thrive in different environments (1h47m8s).
- The return on investment in crypto assets is a reflection of the risks involved, and investors must be prepared to deal with the uncertainties and potential losses (1h47m34s).
- The growth of the crypto market is driven by individuals, who are investing in the asset class before institutions, and this grassroots movement is a key factor in its adoption (1h47m56s).
- Holding cash in a bank account may not be the best option, as the value of the currency can be debased over time, and investors should consider alternative assets to protect their wealth (1h48m16s).
- It is essential to have an emergency fund in place, with a recommended amount of up to $100,000, to protect against unexpected losses or financial disruptions (1h48m27s).
- The challenge has been successful, with many participants getting involved, and for those who didn't participate but want to learn more about WHOOP, they can head to join.WHOOP.com/CEO and start their free trial today (1h49m12s).
- A tool used for research and note-taking is being shared, which is an iPad with a big piece of glass, and some viewers have asked about the tools used for the research process and keeping thoughts organized during conversations (1h49m33s).
- The tool used is an app called GoodNotes, which combines AI with the ease of handwritten note-taking, making the idea capturing process organized and allowing for annotating research documents and scribbling down notes in real time (1h49m51s).
- GoodNotes also allows for syncing notes with the producer's computer in real time, keeping an open dialogue between the host and the producer (1h50m10s).
- Viewers can explore GoodNotes by heading to goodnotes.doac and starting their extended 30-day free trial today or signing up for a yearly subscription of just $9.99 (1h50m21s).
- The debasement of currency is a topic that has been discussed, and it will be explored further (1h50m32s).
What Is The Debasement Of Currency? (1h50m35s)
- In a digital world, an overabundance of something can cause its value to decrease, a concept known as debasement, which can occur when the economic system revalues things in a way that reduces their value (1h50m37s).
- Historically, debasement occurred when a ruler would reduce the value of a coin by removing a portion of its precious metal, such as gold, and using it for other purposes, resulting in a less valuable coin (1h51m22s).
- In an electronic age, debasement can occur when a large amount of money is created electronically, causing the value of money to decrease (1h52m7s).
- This concept can be illustrated by considering a country with a weak currency, where the value of the currency decreases, making it cheaper for foreigners to purchase goods and services, but more expensive for locals (1h52m20s).
- Since 2008, the world's major economies have reached 100% debt-to-GDP ratio, making it challenging to pay interest on the debt, which can become a significant burden on the economy (1h52m50s).
- The interest payments on the debt can consume a large portion of the economic growth, making it difficult for the economy to grow and for individuals and businesses to borrow money (1h53m12s).
- The financial system has become fragile due to the high levels of debt, and the management of debt payments has become the primary focus of governments and central banks (1h54m42s).
- The US economy is currently 380% of GDP in debt, and the entire world is 400% of GDP in debt, making the system incredibly fragile and vulnerable to collapse (1h54m24s).
- If the debt management system fails, it could lead to catastrophic consequences, including the loss of savings, business failures, and government collapse (1h54m55s).
- The world is 400% in debt, and if interest rates were to rise, it would lead to a 75% wipeout of assets, savings, and pensions, resulting in a significant loss of wealth for individuals (1h55m16s).
- Central banks have changed their approach from using balance sheets to manage debt to using liquidity, which is less visible and allows them to inject money into the system without being held accountable (1h56m7s).
- The aging demographics and debt problems are driving the need for central banks to print money, with every government having to print a significant amount of money every four years to reset their interest rates and borrow more money (1h56m22s).
- This cycle of printing money leads to a devaluation of currency, with the average person's money losing 8% of its purchasing power every year, and with a 3% inflation rate, the total devaluation is 11% per year (1h56m59s).
- This devaluation means that even if someone invests in the S&P 500, which returns around 11% per year, their future self will not get any richer due to the risk taken and the inflation (1h57m27s).
- The debasement of currency is often confused with inflation, but it refers to the intentional devaluation of currency by central banks (1h57m41s).
- The "everything code" is a thesis that explains how the aging population drives debt to GDP, government debt, and liquidity, creating a predictable economic machine that will continue until a technological revolution occurs (1h57m58s).
- To protect oneself from this devaluation, it is necessary to invest in assets that outperform the 11% hurdle rate, and currently, the only assets that do so are technology and crypto, with the NASDAQ returning 18% per year and crypto returning over 150% per year (1h59m0s).
- The investor's entire investing approach changed after realizing there are only two major investment opportunities in the world: technology and crypto, with the NASDAQ being down 99.97% versus Bitcoin since 2012 (1h59m18s).
- The investor has 100% of their liquid net worth invested in crypto, which has been the case for five years, and they have done very well with this investment (1h59m44s).
- The investor first bought Bitcoin in 2013 at $200 and initially made a 5x return in the first three months, but then the price fell 87% (2h0m1s).
- Despite the initial drop, the investor maintained a long-term view that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 and chose not to monitor the price closely (2h0m26s).
- By 2017, the investor's Bitcoin investment had increased 10-12 times, but they decided to take their money out due to uncertainty surrounding a fork in the Bitcoin code (2h0m37s).
- The investor missed out on a further 10x increase in the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2017, which reached $20,000 (2h1m1s).
- The price of Bitcoin then collapsed 85%, and the investor bought back in during the pandemic in 2020 when the price fell 50% (2h1m13s).
- The investor's strategy of buying and selling Bitcoin at the right times has been successful, but they acknowledge that simply holding onto their initial investment would have also been profitable (2h1m29s).
The Best Trade Is Quality Of Life (2h1m30s)
- The concept of quality of life is considered the greatest trade on Earth, where one's account is filled with quality of life experiences, rather than just accumulating wealth (2h1m48s).
- The purpose of life is to make the best of the time one has on Earth, and people should remember that money is just a scoring system that allows for privileges, not the privilege itself (2h2m8s).
- The true privileges in life include freedom, being able to live where one wants, being surrounded by loved ones, and having the ability to raise a family (2h2m40s).
- Experiences are considered a valuable currency, and traveling to new places, such as Zambia, can be incredibly enriching and valuable (2h3m31s).
- Understanding and appreciating different cultures, meeting new people, and stepping out of one's comfort zone are essential for personal growth and experiencing the "magic" in life (2h4m16s).
- While money can provide some comfort and security, it is not necessary to have a lot of money to have valuable experiences, and there are alternative ways to achieve a desired lifestyle (2h4m33s).
- For the average person, having some money can make it easier to achieve certain goals, such as living in a desirable location, but it is not the only solution (2h5m7s).
- With the rise of remote work, it is possible for people to live in different parts of the world, such as Latin America, and still maintain a comfortable lifestyle (2h5m12s).
- Ultimately, it is about finding a balance between comfort and simplicity, and not necessarily rejecting all material comforts, but being mindful of what is truly important in life (2h5m31s).
- The key to happiness is aligning one's vision of their future self with their current state, and this can be achieved with or without money, as long as the essential components of a desired lifestyle are met (2h5m40s).
- A person's life can be divided into different seasons, including the building season and the enjoyment season, and it's essential to shift between these seasons to find happiness (2h6m20s).
- After working in investment banking and hedge funds, a person opted out of the rat race and moved to Spain, where they lived in a beautiful house, grew their own food, and started a new business venture, Global Macro Investor (2h6m34s).
- This new venture became successful, especially during the financial crisis, but the person eventually felt isolated due to a lack of intellectually stimulating conversations and a desire for a more exciting life (2h7m7s).
- The person then moved to the Cayman Islands, built a house on a tropical beach, and started new business ventures, including Real Vision and the Entrepreneur's Journey, which brought them happiness and a sense of fulfillment (2h7m43s).
- This new chapter in life provided a lifestyle ratchet and an intellectual ratchet, allowing the person to prove to themselves that they could achieve their goals and be happy (2h8m6s).
The Last Guest Question (2h8m13s)
- A tradition on the podcast is for the last guest to leave a question for the next guest, and the current question is from Boris Johnson, asking if the guest has ever tried to sack someone and ended up accidentally promoting them instead (2h8m14s).
- The guest shares that they probably have been in a similar situation and notes that they have had to learn how to have difficult conversations, as they tend to be evasive and avoid drama (2h8m45s).
- The guest appreciates the host's channel, stating that it's the only channel they trust and go to for advice on crypto, macro environment, inflation, and other related topics (2h9m36s).
- The guest praises the host for providing nuanced information in an accessible way, making complex subjects easy to understand for the average person (2h9m50s).
- The guest believes that the host's mission to educate people about currency debasement and wealth creation is incredibly important, as this insight has historically been reserved for the elites (2h10m15s).
- The host is genuine in trying to help as many people as possible and has created a special resource called "The Everything Code" to help people understand the concept better (2h10m45s).
- The host invites viewers to check out their channel, Real Vision, which offers a free subscription, various tools, and an AI-powered bot to explain complex concepts (2h10m51s).
- The host promotes Zoe, a sponsor of their podcast, which helps users make smart food choices by combining their health data with world-class science (2h11m44s).
- The host invested in Zoe and has been using the service for over a year, tracking their progress and learning how to make smarter food choices (2h12m17s).
- The host offers a 10% discount code, "stepen10," for viewers who join Zoe today (2h12m27s).