All roads seem to be leading to a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF approval | Chain Reaction Podcast

SEC Considering Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

• The SEC is considering approving spot Bitcoin ETFs, with 14 asset management firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, applying for approval.
• The SEC had set a deadline of January 10th for applicants to submit certain details, and a decision is expected around January 8th.
• Some experts believe that not all applications will be approved, as some funds may not be ready or have not submitted enough details.
• A Bitcoin spot ETF would provide an opportunity for retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts.
• BlackRock is seen as a likely candidate for the first approved spot Bitcoin ETF due to its size, infrastructure, and relationship with the SEC.

Potential Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

• The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could increase institutional adoption of Bitcoin and further legitimize it as an asset class.
• The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could increase demand for Bitcoin and drive up its price.
• Bitcoin miners benefit from an increase in Bitcoin price as the value of their stocks rises.

Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price

• The current Bitcoin price is influenced by global liquidity and access to investment capital.
• In the long term, the trend for Bitcoin is positive due to its increasing adoption as a safe-haven asset.
• The reduction in Bitcoin production from 900 to 450 per day is not expected to cause a significant supply shock.
• The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs will remove friction from the process of holding Bitcoin, encouraging more people to invest.
• The timing of these ETFs coincides with the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle, which suggests the potential for exceeding the all-time high in 2024 and reaching a new all-time high in late 2025.

Growing Importance of Bitcoin

• The speaker highlights the growing importance of Bitcoin as a treasury asset for companies due to recent accounting changes.
• The speaker emphasizes the significance of global demand for Bitcoin, with more mining and trading occurring outside the US than within.
• The speaker suggests that countries seeking to diversify their assets may turn to Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional fiat currencies.
• Central banks' increasing purchases of gold in response to the weaponization of the US dollar indicate a desire for alternative reserve assets.