All-In Election Night Livestream with the Besties!

Pre-Trump arrival

• The conversation starts with a lighthearted and humorous tone, with the host mentioning they're a science nerd and don't care about politics, but are there to get along with everyone (0s).
• The host jokes about rescuing a dog and receiving a call from a board member who used to be important 15 years ago, telling them to feel bad about themselves (11s).
• The host and their team are live on YouTube, and they switch to Gallery mode to show all the comments from viewers (43s).
• The host jokes about having "Screaming Eagle" in a thermos, which is actually "liberal tears" (58s).

Trump's arrival and initial conversation

• The host mentions they have a "breaking news story" coming from a private club in Florida, and it's revealed that David Sacks is with Donald Trump (1m32s).
• Donald Trump joins the live stream, and the host warns him not to say anything inappropriate (2m6s).
• Trump mentions he's doing well and is "living on caffeine, nicotine, and testosterone" after dying two days ago (2m17s).
• The host congratulates Trump on his appearance on Tucker Carlson's show, and Trump thanks them (2m30s).
• Trump is broadcasting from Mar-a-Lago, and mentions that membership costs around half a million dollars (3m4s).
• Trump jokes about the price going up depending on the outcome of the election, and mentions the possibility of finding "truckloads of ballots" (3m16s).
• The host asks Trump if he can get a burger at Mar-a-Lago, and Trump offers him a job at the gatehouse (3m34s).

Trump discusses the election

• Trump is asked to share his thoughts on the election, and he says he's an open book and will share everything he knows (3m56s).
• The current election results seem favorable, with Georgia and North Carolina being called, and strong rural turnout, although city turnout has been lower (4m16s).
• In Pennsylvania, Lackawanna County is tied, which is an unusual outcome, and in Wisconsin, 51% of the 18-29 vote has been secured, a historic achievement for Republicans (4m34s).
• The African-American vote in Wisconsin is also showing a strong result, with around 20% voting for the Republican party (4m43s).
• The cultural shifts on the ground, particularly among African-American men, have been noticeable, with many selfies taken and positive interactions experienced (4m57s).
• Despite the positive results, there are still unknowns, and the opposing party may have some anomalies, but a massive overperformance on same-day voting would be required to change the outcome (5m16s).
• The East Coast has been covered well, and if the results hold, it would indicate that 75-80 million Americans are supporting the "America First" ideology (5m52s).
• This ideology is distinct from the traditional Republican Party and is more representative of the views of "Real Americans" on the conservative side (6m7s).
• The push for JD as the VP candidate was driven by the desire to perpetuate this ideology, which is seen as more in line with the views of conservatives on the ground (6m17s).
• In contrast, traditional party leaders, such as Mitch McConnell, have stated that Ukraine is the number one issue for Republicans, but this is not reflected in the views of Republicans spoken to across the country (6m35s).
• Surveys of over 100,000 Republicans have shown that Ukraine is not a top 10 issue for the vast majority, with only four people mentioning it as a top 10 issue, and none as a top three issue (7m4s).

America First ideology and JD as VP

• There is a divergence between "swamp Republicans" and the establishment Republican party, with conservatives around the country aligning more with the "America First" ideology, which is gaining traction and bringing in independents (7m31s).
• The "America First" movement is not about returning to traditional Republican warmongering, but rather about addressing issues like government spending, which is a major concern for many people (8m30s).
• Elon Musk has been engaged in discussions about government efficiency, and there is a possibility that the debt could be reduced by $1-2 trillion if the right team is in place (8m32s).

Government spending and debt

• The current interest on the national debt is $1 trillion per year, which is a significant burden, and giving the right team a chance to address this issue is worth considering (9m24s).
• Cutting the government workforce, similar to what Elon Musk did with Twitter, could lead to a more efficient bureaucracy, but it would require time and process (9m44s).
• The "Deep State" is expected to resist changes, and team selection will be crucial in the next iteration, with a focus on blocking those who would slow down progress (10m23s).
• Transition planning is underway, with a focus on blocking the appointment of individuals who would hinder progress, rather than placing specific people in positions (10m39s).
• The unelected bureaucrats in Washington D.C. will try to stop the duly elected President of the United States from implementing their agenda, using a long and vicious playbook (10m57s).
• When the current President's father took office, he was honest about his biggest mistake, which was not understanding the ways of Washington D.C. and the people who inhabit it (11m9s).
• The President's father came to D.C. for the first time when he moved into the White House, and he had to learn that the city is different from the business world, where people will stab you in the back to get ahead (11m15s).
• With four years of experience, it is now known who the good and dishonest people are in Washington D.C., and it will be easier to keep the dishonest ones out of the process (11m42s).
• The goal is to put people in power who are willing to fight for the conservative side, rather than those who just want to be liked by the media (11m56s).
• There are some people on the conservative side who are "killers" and willing to engage in the fight, and they will be put in positions of power (12m10s).
• The process of implementing the agenda will still be difficult, but it is doable with the right people in power and enough transparency (12m18s).
• The government has been a failure for the last half-century, and a mandate from the people, along with transparency and exposure, is needed to change that (12m31s).
• Elon Musk's efforts with X are helping to bring transparency and enable people to communicate, which is making a big difference in the election (12m37s).
• The transparency provided by Elon Musk is the greatest disinfectant, and it is hoped that it will set a precedent for others to follow (13m3s).

Congressman Ro Khanna joins

• Congressman Ro Khanna joined the conversation and emphasized the need for the country to come together, regardless of who wins the election (13m14s).
• Congressman Khanna expressed his respect for Elon Musk's innovation and his desire to figure out how to heal the country and do big things (13m40s).
• The Congressman acknowledged that the current situation is tough, but a clean sweep of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan is necessary (13m55s).
• The current situation is considered an uphill battle, with the data indicating a challenging outcome (14m2s).
• The election is seen as a referendum on ideology rather than a Republican ticket, with the Democratic ideology focusing on abortion rights and inclusive democracy (14m27s).
• However, it is acknowledged that more needs to be done on the economy, including creating good-paying jobs and promoting manufacturing (14m52s).
• There is a call for the next president to work towards turning the page forward and doing things for the country, regardless of who wins (15m20s).
• The sentiment is that people are sick of division in the country, and there is hope for moving forward as a nation (15m29s).

Discussion on Democratic primary and debt

• The decision not to have a Democratic speedrun primary is not considered a mistake, but rather a choice that allowed for a different approach (15m53s).
• The question of whether Joe Biden should have gotten out a year before is raised, but it is acknowledged that this was his decision (15m59s).
• The vice president, Kamala Harris, may not have had enough time to introduce herself, and adding a month to select the candidate may not have made a difference (16m11s).
• The issue of debt is raised, with the question of how much debt is too much and whether cutting the debt should be a mandate (17m7s).
• There is a call for a dual-party point of view on how to address the debt situation and whether slashing costs is a mandate (17m16s).
• The unsustainable nature of the current debt situation is acknowledged, and there is a need for a solution (17m32s).
• The current interest component of the US debt, which is over a trillion dollars, is unsustainable and both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of overspending, with politicians often buying votes with money the country doesn't have (17m36s).
• Mitch McConnell once stated that no one has ever won or lost an election by spending too much, highlighting the problem of politicians prioritizing spending over fiscal responsibility (17m45s).
• Having a businessperson in office, like the current president, can lead to real change, as they are not beholden to traditional politicians and can surround themselves with a team that can implement change (18m2s).

Defense budget and government procurement

• Two potential ways to reduce the deficit are to reform the defense budget and open it up to new companies and technologies, rather than relying on the five prime contractors who make large profits from cost overruns (18m30s).
• The defense budget is over a trillion dollars, with companies like Lockheed Martin making large profits from projects like the F-35, which has had $1.7 trillion in cost overruns (18m43s).
• The government's procurement process is flawed, with too many "idiotic boundary conditions" that prioritize virtue signaling over finding the cheapest, fastest, and best solutions (19m12s).
• Changing the goals of the government's procurement process to focus on outcomes rather than process could help reduce costs and lead to more effective solutions (19m53s).
• A bipartisan hearing in Silicon Valley highlighted the need for an outcomes-oriented defense procurement system that is open to more than just the five prime contractors (20m3s).
• Reforming the defense procurement process could involve opening it up to new companies and technologies, and prioritizing outcome-based solutions (20m31s).
• The current system is "totally rigged" in favor of the five prime contractors, and reform is needed to give new companies a fair shot at contract bidding (20m43s).
• Arlington is one of the richest parts of America, alongside Silicon Valley, due to a system of defense contractors and the five primes that rig the system to get contracts and make Congress appear impotent (21m10s).
• The defense contractors' cost overruns and inability to deliver promised weapons, such as the F-35s, have frustrated both Republicans and Democrats, including Mike Rogers (21m42s).
• The issue is not just with Congress, but also with generals who have no incentive to save money as their off-ramp is often a board seat at one of these companies (21m55s).
• Bureaucrats who have never run a business or negotiated anything also have no incentive to save money, as seen in the example of the Air Force One contract, where a billion dollars was saved with just one phone call (22m4s).
• The yearly budgets and "use it or lose it" philosophy in government also contribute to the lack of incentive to save money, leading to huge amounts of dollars being spent at the end of the fiscal year (23m16s).
• If bureaucrats were incentivized to save money, costs could be cut significantly, such as in the example of the Air Force One contract, which could have been built for less than $4 billion (23m46s).
• The topic of defense contractors and government spending is relevant to the election results and the need for a new president to address these issues (21m49s).
• The discussion also touches on the idea that private aviation can build incredible airplanes for much less than the cost of government contracts, such as the $4 billion Air Force One (23m52s).

Donald Trump Jr.'s appearance and discussion on unity

• Donald Trump Jr. appeared on the podcast and was appreciated for his contribution, with a mention that Dawn is a tremendous asset to his father, Donald Trump (24m17s).
• The discussion shifted to unity, with a mention that some colleagues had previously made negative comments, but the current speaker found the podcast host to be reasonable on the subject (24m45s).
• The host was complimented on having his finger on the pulse, being out campaigning, and talking to people on the ground, with a true America First agenda (25m11s).
• It was suggested that the podcast host and Donald Trump Jr. could find common ground and work together on certain issues, despite being from different parties (25m26s).
• The podcast host was praised for being motivated by issues, believing in dialogue and discourse, and being a proponent of free speech, which could be a basis for finding common ground with Donald Trump Jr. (25m32s).
• A commitment was made to work together, regardless of the election outcome, to get things done and address the division in the country (26m11s).

Polls and election updates

• The current time was mentioned, with 35,000 people watching live, and surprise guests were announced to be coming on the show (26m38s).
• The polls were discussed, with the New York Times showing a likely Trump victory, and various states being called for Trump or being toss-ups (27m5s).
• The Electoral College numbers were mentioned, with Trump at 297 and the Democratic candidate at 241, and an 83% chance of a Trump victory (27m10s).
• The results of various states were discussed, including Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (27m18s).
• The possibility of a "Red Wave" was mentioned, with the election results unfolding in real-time on the podcast (27m33s).
• Virginia is currently leaning towards a particular candidate, but there is a disagreement about the accuracy of this information, with one person having an electoral prediction of 74% in real-time (28m8s).

Guest lineup and Poly Market discussion

• A person named Nat is joining the conversation, and she is described as beautiful and not vain, even when wearing curlers (28m33s).
• Del is at his office, and he has been kicked off the show permanently four years ago, but he is being given a second chance (28m51s).
• A lineup of guests is announced, including Nick, who is described as the world's greatest poker player, and Dean Phillips (29m25s).
• There is a surprise guest who will be joining the conversation, but their identity is not revealed (29m34s).
• The conversation turns to Poly Market odds, and there is a discussion about launching a couple of polls on top of Poly Market (29m51s).
• An idea is proposed to launch a market on the federal debt after the next presidential cycle, and it is suggested that this could be a great bet (30m24s).
• Other potential markets are discussed, including who JD Vance's VP pick would be if he wins, and who the Secretary of Treasury and Secretary of State would be (31m0s).
• There is a mention of possibly having inside information on these markets, but this is not elaborated on (31m19s).
• An update is given on the Pennsylvania election results, with Trump at 50.94% and Harris at 56 and a half% (31m36s).
• The conversation is being moderated, and the next guest is announced, who is a Democrat who has appeared on the program before (31m54s).

Dean Phillips' appearance and critique of Democratic Party

• Dean Phillips, a Democrat and former presidential hopeful, appeared on the All-In podcast, episode 154, where he was praised for being brave in sharing his opinions. (32m35s)
• Phillips had previously stated that Joe Biden was not equipped to have another term as president due to cognitive decline, which was seen as a bold move considering he was part of the Democratic Party. (33m5s)
• The current situation is described as brutal for Phillips, as he didn't get a fair chance to run in the primary after Biden dropped out, and instead, Kamala Harris was anointed as the candidate. (33m39s)
• Phillips expressed his feelings, stating that he's incredulous and disappointed in the party's decision to go with selection instead of election, which he believes is against the principles of competition that the country is founded upon. (34m26s)
• Phillips emphasized that people want winners who have been battle-tested and have won with ideas, rather than anointments or coronations, and he can't believe the party he's loyal to is blind to this reality. (34m52s)
• The process of anointing Kamala Harris as the candidate after Biden dropped out is described as a coordinated effort between the two major parties, which are seen as private corporations that work together to prevent competition. (35m23s)
• The officers of the Democratic and Republican parties are essentially appointed by the president or former president, making the process opaque and siloed, and there is a need to expose how Congress works and shine light on the issues (35m57s).
• There is a lack of incentives to do the right thing and perverse incentives across the political spectrum, and the best and brightest are not electively running for office due to the devaluation of public service (36m49s).
• The country needs to ensure that opportunity is afforded to everybody, but this should be done by raising the foundation for everybody, not just redistributing income or taking care of certain groups (38m19s).
• The initiative of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and wokeism has complicated matters for Democrats, turned off voters, and created a perception that Democrats don't fundamentally believe in competition (38m31s).
• The Democratic party needs to change and assess what went wrong after losing, but it's uncertain if anything will change (39m3s).
• To change, the Democratic party needs to address the issues that led to the loss of its base, including the alienation of former supporters like Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, and others who were "kicked out" of the party (39m24s).
• The Democratic party's strategy of spending nearly a billion dollars in the last 90 days and losing market share is considered a bad strategy that needs to change, and the party needs to be professionalized with a brand that means something based on principles (40m2s).
• The party should focus on recruiting candidates that embody those principles and prioritize winning, rather than just checking boxes or satisfying certain groups (40m28s).
• The party's loss of sight of its fundamental goal of winning is attributed to people who have considered themselves Democrats for decades but don't participate in primaries or offer themselves as candidates (41m16s).
• The Democratic party is increasingly represented by people who are far left of the mainstream, which is a problem, and the Republican party is probably closer to the mainstream in America (41m45s).
• The party's increasing representation by people who hate capitalism and entrepreneurship is seen as anti-American and frustrating, as Americans love new products and innovation (42m4s).
• Chastising people for success is considered a bad strategy, and it's not universal among Democrats, as many believe deeply in free enterprise and entrepreneurship (42m49s).

Discussion on capitalism, wealth disparity, and healthcare

• The people who feel they haven't benefited from capitalism feel the system is rigged, whether they inherit wealth or haven't been able to accumulate it, and this is a big theory about capitalism (43m7s).
• There are grievances on both the right and the left, which is a natural part of human nature, and finding common ground is possible by making minor modifications to the system of capitalism to reward more people and provide capital for those who wish to create businesses (43m19s).
• The growing disparities in income and wealth in the country and around the world are a concern, and many democracies have failed due to this issue (43m45s).
• Business and those who risk capital to build businesses and provide livelihoods should be rewarded, but it is also important to understand why many Americans are concerned about the accumulation of wealth in the hands of a few (44m9s).
• The issue of wealth accumulation is perceived differently in countries like Sweden, where healthcare and education are covered, and communities are well taken care of, unlike in the US where people struggle to pay bills and access healthcare (44m41s).
• The focus should be on raising the foundation, rather than redistribution, to address the issue of wealth disparities (45m15s).
• Perspectives on healthcare have changed after traveling the world and seeing the corruption in the system, including the pharmaceutical and insurance industries (45m29s).
• Bobby Kennedy's ideas on healthcare have some reasonable elements, but also some that are not believed to be truthful (45m54s).
• Professionals with organizational experience in multi-billion dollar organizations should lead health agencies, rather than politicians (46m10s).
• The pharmaceutical companies' influence in Washington and their opposition to natural alternatives like psilocybin are concerns (46m32s).
• The speaker expresses disappointment in businesses, such as United Health Group, that take billions of dollars out of the healthcare system while people struggle to pay their medical bills, and notes that this is a troublesome issue that will be discussed another day (46m42s).
• The speaker plans to wake up the next morning and remind people that the real change happens with individual actions, not just with leaders like Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and will continue to build bridges and listen to others with different perspectives (47m14s).
• The speaker is committed to dedicating time and energy to creating more competition for both parties by recruiting great candidates, and believes that the status quo is untenable (47m43s).
• The speaker is thanked for showing leadership and courage in speaking out, and is encouraged to continue doing so, with appreciation for their profile in courage (48m1s).
• The speaker is considered a tremendous asset to the Democratic party, and it is suggested that they should be moved up in the organization to prevent them from joining the Republican party (48m32s).
• The speaker is infuriated by the truth they told being obvious to all, and is thanked for telling the truth, with appreciation for the kind words (49m7s).

Poker discussion and election updates

• The speaker does not see the recent events as an end to their career, but rather as a beginning, and invites viewers to a party on December 7th (49m25s).
• The speaker is jokingly asked to throw another party if a budget is passed before the end of the year, and agrees to bring wine if that happens (49m51s).
• The speaker hopes to be invited back to discuss the nitty-gritty of the issues, and expresses concern that no matter who wins, the country will go further into trillions of dollars in debt (50m3s).
• The host addresses comments from YouTube viewers, mentioning the price of their sweater, which is $9,450, and the year of the colan they are drinking, which is 2005 (50m10s).
• The host introduces Philip, a reporter from Wisconsin, who is asked to answer three questions: how each of the hosts plays poker, who is the best poker player, and what Philip thinks of the hosts (50m51s).
• Philip answers that the best poker player among the hosts is Chamath, who has won the most money, and that David Sacks is the second-best due to his knack for the game and ability to make good reads (52m0s).
• Philip also praises Jason's ability to hold his own in games, despite often being distracted by playing chess with Peter Thiel and Jess, and notes that Jason is "Plucky," meaning he doesn't give up and stands up to the heat of the game (52m58s).
• Philip compliments J Cal's live reads, saying he has the best soul reads, which often work despite not being "solver-approved" (53m10s).
• The host jokes that Philip's ability to read people well may be due to the fact that Fredberg is often drunk during games (53m25s).
• Jason is advised to play 10% fewer hands to improve his poker game, as his tendency to get involved in many hands has been costly for him, and being more aggressive could help him move up in the game (54m20s).
• Chamat is described as the glue that holds the group together, and his generosity is highlighted, with an anecdote about a night at his house with dealers, wine, and a large audience watching (54m50s).
• Chamat's poker skills are also praised, although it's noted that he's had a rough few weeks since Jason left (54m56s).
• A personal anecdote is shared about being told to stop drinking during a live stream, with 35,000 people watching, and being called arrogant and stupid when drunk (55m21s).
• The podcast is said to become better when Chamat is drinking, and a suggestion is made for him to have a drink, such as a Pelino (55m50s).

Poly Market discussion and election results

• An election update is provided, with the Republicans currently leading in the Senate and likely to win the majority, and Trump leading in the presidential election (55m56s).
• The Poly Market CEO, Shane, will be joining the live stream soon, and the host shares their prediction for the election, noting that the odds have shifted throughout the day as people bet (56m34s).
• The potential for people to make large amounts of money through betting on the election is discussed, with some individuals using arbitrage (ARB) to make millions of dollars (57m5s).
• A significant moment occurred when the election results hit 90%, indicating a likely win for Trump, as the previous election never reached a 9:1 ratio (57m40s).
• Professional poker player Phil Hellmuth and Haralabob are scheduled to appear on the show, with Phil Hellmuth being one of the great gamblers and poker players (58m5s).
• Shane, the founder of Poly Market, came up with the idea of starting the platform due to a bet between Fredberg and Diego, and this idea was influenced by a conversation with the host (58m36s).
• The host played a role in Poly Market's pivot, as Shane was informed about a bet between the host and Diego, which led to a change in direction (59m2s).
• The host had invested $30,000 in Poly Market and could have had a 4% stake, which would be worth $12 million after the company raised $300 million (59m18s).
• Election results are being discussed, with Trump leading in several states, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia (59m41s).
• The results suggest that it may be impossible for Harris to catch up, with 90% of the votes in and Trump leading by a significant margin (1h0m6s).
• The outcome of the election appears to be settled, with the New York Times and Poly Market both showing Trump with a high probability of winning (1h0m19s).
• The host did not predict the election being settled by 8:30, but Jamal had predicted 300 electoral votes for Trump (1h0m28s).
• The final outcome of the election is still uncertain, but it appears that Trump may win with around 290 electoral votes (1h0m42s).
• There is a discussion about the possibility of Trump winning the election with a significant number of electoral votes, with one person mentioning that the New York Times' Electoral College estimate is 301, which might match another person's earlier prediction of 300 electoral votes (1h1m20s).
• The conversation turns to the topic of polls being far off, with one person asking what is wrong with the polls and how they can be so inaccurate (1h1m40s).
• An example is given of the Amish turnout in Pennsylvania, where a large number of Amish people voted for Trump, but were not accounted for in pollster reports because they do not have phones and therefore could not be reached by pollsters (1h2m1s).
• It is suggested that some people may not have wanted to disclose their votes for Trump, which could also contribute to the inaccuracy of the polls (1h2m43s).
• The conversation also touches on the issue of getting in touch with people to ask about their votes, particularly young people who may not have landlines and may be harder to reach (1h2m50s).
• There is speculation about the possibility of young men coming out to vote in large numbers, with one person mentioning a stunning number from one state where more men under the age of 30 voted for Trump (1h3m10s).
• The "Elon effect" is mentioned as a possible factor in young men's voting behavior, with Elon Musk's influence potentially swinging the election (1h3m23s).
• Elon Musk's ability to inspire young men who love innovation and entrepreneurship is highlighted as a possible reason for his influence on the election (1h3m31s).
• One person confirms that they did vote, but refuses to disclose who they voted for, citing the divisiveness of the topic (1h3m51s).

2024 Election, Phil Hellmuth and Jason Coon join

• A discussion about voting in the 2024 presidential election took place, with one person revealing they voted for Marianne Williamson, while another person chose not to disclose their vote (1h4m19s).
• The conversation shifted to welcoming a new guest, professional poker player Phil Hellmuth, who was described as one of the greatest poker players in the world, along with another player, Jason Coon (1h5m11s).
• Phil Hellmuth was teased about wearing the same tracksuit for 20 years, despite being given a new wardrobe worth $100,000 for his birthday (1h6m20s).
• Jason Coon, a professional poker player, joined the conversation and was asked to handicap the election, sharing his insights on the prediction markets and the poker community's involvement in the election cycle (1h7m1s).
• Jason Coon mentioned that a person in his circle, known for making accurate predictions, made a large wager on Trump, estimated to be in the low eight-figure range, just a few days ago (1h7m37s).
• The sentiment in the poker community had shifted towards Cala earlier in the day, but the gap was closing, with some people feeling that everything was shifting towards Trump (1h8m1s).
• Phil Hellmuth is considered one of the best poker players in history, with over $60 million in winnings, and is admired for his dedication to the game and his ability to still compete at a high level despite his age (1h8m17s).
• The first time Phil Hellmuth was met, he was playing poker together and was impressed by his skills, and the next day, Hellmuth approached him and said he thought he learned a lot from playing with him (1h8m35s).
• Adrien Matos is considered one of the greatest poker players currently, with a long history of winning at high stakes and a passion for the game that drives him to continue competing (1h9m27s).
• Matos is compared to Tiger Woods in terms of his dominance in poker, and his ability to maintain a high level of performance over a long period of time (1h9m28s).
• Stephen Chidwick is another young player who is similar to Matos in terms of his love for the game and his ability to compete at a high level (1h10m29s).
• Players like Matos and Chidwick are respected for their dedication to the game and their desire to compete against the best players, regardless of the stakes or location (1h10m42s).
• Phil Hellmuth is also respected for his longevity in the game and his ability to still compete at a high level, despite being one of the older players in the game (1h10m56s).
• Hellmuth has earned his place as one of the greatest poker players of all time, and his sense of humor and ability to poke fun at himself have endeared him to fans (1h11m10s).
• Other players, such as Chris Moneymaker and Bertrand Grospellier, are also respected for their skills and dedication to the game (1h11m14s).
• Phil Hellmuth once called to propose a deal to play tournaments together and share the upside, which was a significant opportunity at the time (1h11m27s).

Poker anecdotes and deal with Hellmuth

• A person had a deal with Helmuth, where Helmuth would play in a tournament and the person would get a percentage of the winnings, but the person didn't have to put up any money because Helmuth started winning right away (1h11m49s).
• The person eventually gave Helmuth 50% of their winnings, which was around $350,000 to $400,000, and in return, Helmuth gave the person a piece of his fund, which included Slack and Bitcoin (1h12m44s).
• Helmuth's generosity was seen as a stunning moment, as he didn't owe the person anything and was giving them a pure gift (1h13m20s).
• The person finds European players who take a long time to make bets and pick up their chips like robots to be annoying, but enjoys it when Phil Hellmuth rages at the table (1h13m41s).
• The person believes that Phil Hellmuth's rages are real, but sometimes he may play to the audience and add extra drama (1h14m26s).

Shane Cand on Poly Market and election trading

• Shane Cand, the founder of Poly Market, reports that there has been a lot of trading happening on the site, with around $200 million in trading volume, and the current prediction for the election is 94% in favor of Trump (1h14m48s).
• Shane explains that an Arbitrage (ARB) is when multiple markets offer different prices for the same position, allowing traders to buy both sides and make a profit, and that Poly Market has become a popular platform for sharps to arb and make accurate predictions (1h15m18s).
• Poly Market is a peer-to-peer platform where users can buy and sell outcome shares, with the market price derived from the probability of the outcome, and it's not the house, but rather a venue where users can trade with each other (1h17m31s).
• The platform is not skewed by individual trades, as every trade has someone on the other side taking the opposing position, and the market price is determined by the collective actions of all users (1h17m42s).
• A recent example of this was a big trade by a wealthy French trader, who was reported on in the press, but the media narrative was misleading, and the trader's actions were actually a demonstration of his confidence in his theories (1h16m31s).
• The platform's users can see the prices and how they change over time, which provides a unique and intuitive way to understand the probability of different outcomes, and this has made Poly Market an alternative news source (1h18m36s).
• The platform's market share is around 90%, making it the most liquid venue for trading outcome shares, and users can look at price discovery venues external to Poly Market when there are more liquid options available (1h16m7s).
• The media often misunderstands how Poly Market works, and tries to discredit the accuracy of the free market, but the platform's peer-to-peer nature and market-driven prices make it a reliable source of information (1h17m25s).
• The value of outcome shares is derived from the probability of the outcome, and the market price is determined by the collective actions of all users, making it a unique and valuable source of information (1h18m16s).
• Poly Market's users can see how the prices change over time, and how they respond to new information, which provides a unique and intuitive way to understand the probability of different outcomes (1h18m54s).
• The free market is being criticized in the press and on social media, with some questioning its accuracy due to its basis in stable coins and association with a "French whale" investor, but these characteristics are inherent to a free market, which is still denominated in USDC for ease of understanding (1h19m14s).
• The swing states in the election are being closely watched, with emerging markets and liquidity being observed, and the market structure is a one-size-fits-all system with an order book and outcome shares (1h19m49s).
• The markets are telling a different story than the news, which is still reporting a close and uncertain election, but the markets are providing a clearer picture of the likely outcome based on the collective actions of traders with varying levels of conviction (1h20m29s).
• The markets are filtering out unnecessary information and answering the most important questions, such as which candidate is likely to win in Michigan, and providing a better way to understand the future than just counting votes and relying on pollsters (1h21m13s).
• Pollsters are being questioned for their accuracy, with some wondering why they should be trusted when they have no skin in the game and no consequences for being wrong, and prediction markets like PolyMarket are being seen as a more reliable alternative (1h21m47s).
• The idea of trusting individual pollsters is becoming outdated with the arrival of prediction markets, which have proven themselves to be a significant improvement and are likely to continue to disrupt the way we assess risk and understand the world (1h22m31s).
• Prediction markets are operating by allowing people to trade based on their parsing of information, and this collective action is providing a clearer picture of the likely outcome, with potential impacts on society and our understanding of the world (1h22m46s).

Election results and Newt Gingrich joins

• Trump has won North Carolina, and according to CNN, he has 50.6% of the vote with 87% of the vote in, while Kamala Harris has 47.9% (1h22m57s)
• There is a discrepancy in the data between CNN and Fox News, with CNN not having called the election yet, and Fox News showing different percentage amounts of votes (1h23m23s)
• The Poly Market map is showing a different data source, with Trump almost up by 200,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and the percentage likelihood of Trump winning is high (1h23m44s)
• The number of votes doesn't matter, but rather who is going to win the election and the electoral college (1h24m1s)
• Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich joined the conversation, assessing the evening's events and the potential outcome of the election (1h24m20s)
• Gingrich believes that this will be seen as a historic turning point in American history, and that Trump's campaign has been a movement that has resonated with tens of millions of people (1h24m55s)
• Gingrich attributes Trump's success to the fact that over half of the American people refused to let him go, despite the establishment's efforts to destroy him (1h25m42s)
• Gingrich thinks that Trump has become a personification of a movement, similar to Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln, and that his genius was in coming up with the "Make America Great Again" slogan (1h26m11s)
• There is a reasonable chance that President Trump could win the popular vote, in addition to the presidency, which would be an enormous increase in his psychological ability to lead the country (1h26m50s)
• The places where Democrats have huge majorities, such as California, Illinois, and New York, are areas where Republicans do not spend much money competing, and if they were to put real resources into those states, Trump would likely win the popular vote (1h27m16s).
• If Trump wins the popular vote, he would have the same moral authority as Ronald Reagan did in 1981 when he won the largest Electoral College vote against an incumbent president in American history (1h27m45s).
• The concept of "tearing down the Deep State and the administrative State" refers to the millions of bureaucrats, lobbyists, reporters, and academics who believe they have the right to impose their values on the rest of the population (1h28m12s).
• This group of people, referred to as the "top 1%," believe they have the legitimate right to impose their values on others, which is an extraordinary and arrogant belief (1h28m54s).
• An example of the system's sickness is a story about a man in New York State who had his house attacked by seven law enforcement officers, who seized and killed his pet squirrel and raccoon (1h29m17s).

Steve Bannon on MAGA movement and election analysis

• Steve Bannon, the architect of the MAGA movement, joins the program and discusses the ideology that was on referendum, which is putting American citizens, particularly working-class and lower-middle-class people, first (1h30m3s).
• Bannon believes that the pattern recognition that is most important is the support of Hispanic families and African-American men for Trump, with 25% of African-American men potentially voting for him (1h30m54s).
• Bannon also notes that a majority of eligible black voters are not going to vote for Kamala Harris, and this is a transformational night with the working class of the country speaking out (1h31m11s).
• A group of people, including David Sachs, Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, Danica Patrick, and Nicole Shanahan, have come together to represent a new voice in America (1h31m22s).
• The working class of the country has spoken, and this is a result of a grassroots effort to change the architecture of the Republican Party over the last couple of years (1h31m40s).
• The Trump campaign's get-out-the-vote effort relied on a massive grassroots turnout and financial support from individuals like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson, as the campaign itself did not have sufficient funds (1h31m58s).
• The election integrity effort was driven by working-class people who utilized the precinct strategy, which has been rebuilt over the past four years into a populist nationalist movement (1h32m10s).
• The movement's success is expected to result in the addition of seats to the Senate and the House, with President Trump likely to be in the White House (1h32m37s).
• The focus of MSNBC and CNN on the Electoral College and structural issues overlooks the failure to address working-class concerns about economic opportunities, education, and the impact of forever wars (1h32m44s).
• The Democratic answer to these concerns, which included elements of DEI and wokeism, was rejected by working-class people, particularly men, who felt condemned as part of the patriarchy (1h33m42s).
• The cultural aspects of the election, while important, are secondary to the economic issues, which are expected to be a major focus when addressing the debt ceiling, tax cuts, and budget in early January (1h34m50s).
• The incoming administration will need to be relentless in the face of potential pushback from the Deep State or administrative bodies between now and January 20th or beyond (1h35m29s).
• The military-industrial intelligence complex is out of control and needs to be deconstructed, requiring President Trump to have tough people in the Department of Justice to work through issues with the FBI and CIA (1h35m49s).
• Full transparency is necessary to deconstruct the radical rogue element of the administrative state, and major investigations are required, but the Deep State will try to thwart President Trump's efforts (1h36m16s).
• President Trump still faces sentencing on November 26th, and it is likely he will receive a prison sentence, but he needs to focus on ending the American Empire and implementing an "America First" policy (1h36m33s).
• To achieve his goals, President Trump needs to surround himself with the right people, unlike his first term when many of his advisors turned against him (1h37m7s).
• The relationship with President Trump is excellent, and he has been a strong supporter, laying out a strategy for his comeback in a 2021 article (1h37m44s).
• To build his cabinet and team for a second term, President Trump should adopt a simple plan, aggressively executed, and focus on addressing financial and economic problems, national security, deportations, and global wars (1h38m16s).
• Key positions that need to be filled include White House counsel, Chief of Staff, DOJ, National Security advisor, and NEC, with a focus on addressing the ticking time bomb of national debt and financing (1h38m25s).
• The Chinese Communist party is a significant problem that needs to be addressed, and President Trump needs to think about how to solve this issue (1h39m0s).
• The core team that believes in President Trump's core beliefs is necessary for his success, and one of the key issues is deporting millions of illegal immigrants, which is seen as a crucial step in putting American citizens first and protecting opportunities for African-American and Hispanic men (1h39m15s).
• The Federal Reserve and the Treasury have been upfront about their intention to take down wage inflation by targeting unskilled labor, and deporting illegal immigrants could knock off 1% of GDP, but the priority should be on protecting American citizens (1h39m51s).
• Showing the black community and Hispanic citizens that their interests are being protected and prioritized could lead to their long-term political support for the next 50 years (1h40m32s).
• Deporting illegal immigrants must be done in a logical and humane manner, with partnerships with other countries, and drawing a line in the sand to prevent further exploitation by the Democratic party and corporate interests (1h40m45s).
• The populist movement will prioritize taking on issues like deportations, building the wall, and investigating the Deep State, including reconvening the January 6th committee to investigate the FBI and the 2020 election (1h41m5s).
• Investigating the events of January 6th and the 2020 election is crucial to understanding the core of American politics and the influence of the Deep State, and it is necessary to adjudicate these issues publicly with bipartisan involvement (1h42m2s).
• An investigation into the events surrounding the imprisonment of thousands of people is necessary to get to the bottom of what happened and to prevent it from happening again in the future, and this can be done through the House Judiciary Committee or an Inspector General investigation (1h42m26s).
• The goal of the investigation is not to reopen old wounds but to ensure that the country can move forward and guarantee that such events never happen again with either political party (1h42m54s).
• Steve Bannon has spoken to President Trump in the last couple of weeks, and they have a good relationship, but Bannon has not been offered an official role in the new administration (1h43m3s).
• Bannon's role is focused on the "War Room" media platform, which is the activist base of the MAGA movement, and he believes his highest and best use is to continue doing the show and supporting President Trump's policies from the outside (1h43m25s).
• Bannon has no interest in going to the White House and believes he can be more effective in supporting President Trump from the outside (1h43m54s).

Deportation plan, election results, and War Room app

• The conversation shifts to the election results, with a mention of a potential sweep for Trump and a discussion about the latest updates on the election (1h44m6s).
• There is a mention of a plan to deport 15 million people, which is met with skepticism and concern (1h44m24s).
• The conversation also touches on the topic of election results and the accuracy of different news sources, with a mention of CNN and Fox maps (1h45m14s).
• The "War Room" app is mentioned as a popular source of information, with a note that it is the most downloaded app in the world at the time (1h45m39s).
• There is a discussion about the difference between consuming legacy media and getting information from alternative sources, with a mention of people being glued to their screens and not knowing what's happening (1h45m53s).
• Poly Market is a free market-driven platform where people compete, and it's not designed to create cliffhangers like a thriller movie, but rather to provide a space for people to put their money where their mouth is (1h46m16s).
• One of the critiques of prediction markets, specifically Poly Market, is that it's not yet available for Americans, but there are efforts to change this and make it available in the US market (1h46m28s).
• The founder of Poly Market started the platform with no money and built it from scratch, believing in the academic literature around markets being the best way to aggregate information (1h47m7s).
• Poly Market has made an impact and has its best days yet to come, but it had to navigate the system and find a compliant way to operate early on due to limited resources (1h47m31s).
• The platform has gained traction and leverage, and with the help of people fighting to legalize prediction markets in the US, it may soon become available to Americans (1h48m13s).
• Poly Market's intent is to use its resources to create a point of view and track interesting topics, such as which hyperscalers will have the biggest cloud business, and create a story around it (1h48m34s).
• The platform allows users to create markets for almost anything and everything, providing a new format for people to put their money where their mouth is and create probabilities around a topic (1h49m25s).
• Pollsters are not reliable in predicting election outcomes, as they are often just pundits and entertainers with no special ability to forecast the future, and if they were truly skilled, they would monetize their abilities by participating in markets (1h49m42s).
• A recent Iowa poll showing Kamala winning did not come to pass, with Donald Trump instead winning by 14%, raising questions about whether the pollster was spreading misinformation or simply doing a bad job (1h50m18s).
• The existence of prediction markets allows individuals to look at the collective opinions of many people and derive their own understanding of what is likely to happen, rather than relying on individual experts or polls (1h50m43s).
• The Selzer poll sparked a range of opinions on Twitter, with some people saying it would be remembered forever and others claiming it was fake, but the real impact is on who will win the various races (1h51m0s).
• Prediction markets can help cut through the noise of competing opinions and allow individuals to focus on the most liquid and available information (1h51m47s).

Iowa poll discussion and Haralabos Voulgaris joins

• The market for the Iowa race saw a collapse in Trump's odds at one point, despite him being meaningfully ahead earlier, and Shane is asked to explain what happened in the market (1h52m34s).
• Haralabos Voulgaris, a friend of the show and a skilled thinker, poker player, and sports team owner, is introduced as a guest (1h52m53s).
• Poly Market is a primary venue for price discovery, allowing the market to interpret and ingest information, leading to equilibrium after initial frenzy and volatility (1h53m24s).
• The market's transparency enables users to see who's participating, taking what positions, and a comment section shows users' positions and what they bought it at, creating a new format of social networking (1h54m6s).
• The market functioned perfectly during this cycle, despite misinformation and hit pieces, and ended up being the best information source and way to follow who is likely to win the election (1h54m44s).
• Poly Market's success is a big win for the platform and a disruptor for Legacy Media in understanding future events (1h55m27s).
• Shane is thanked for coming on the show, and it's suggested that he return in the future to discuss listing stuff on the market, including end-of-year markets (1h55m36s).
• The idea is proposed to create markets out of the bets made last year, allowing people to bet their beliefs and look at the odds and trends over time (1h55m52s).
• Shane agrees to help get his team to look at the end-of-year predictions episodes and make them into markets (1h56m31s).
• The final message is for anyone with ideas to DM Poly Market on Twitter (1h56m43s).
• There will be an announcement soon regarding ideas, which is exciting news (1h56m50s).

Haralabob's background and views on politics and COVID-19

• Haralabob has made more than $100 million but less than $1 billion betting on basketball, which is true (1h57m12s).
• Haralabob is just getting started with cryptocurrency and doesn't have much experience with it (1h57m23s).
• Haralabob was not the assistant GM of the Dallas Mavericks under Mark Cuban, but rather the de facto GM (1h57m39s).
• Mark Cuban's involvement in politics was shocking, and many people thought Haralabob had insight into Cuban's thoughts and actions (1h57m54s).
• There is a theme that people who went to Epstein island or were involved in certain parties had to vote Democratic, which Haralabob thinks is absurd and not true in Mark Cuban's case (1h58m16s).
• Haralabob believes that some celebrities, such as JLo and Usher, changed their political views suddenly, which seems suspicious and "dark" (1h58m36s).
• Haralabob thinks that JLo's acting job during a certain event was unbelievable and seemed fake (1h59m12s).
• The election was odd, and many people thought Haralabob had changed his views, but he claims he has always been the same person, except for a short period during COVID-19 when he followed the herd and got vaccinated (1h59m25s).
• Haralabob remembers reading the Great Barrington Declaration, which is a significant point in his perspective on COVID-19 (2h0m8s).
• A report written by three physicians and epidemiologists from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford was dismissed as quackery, despite having reasonable ideas, which later influenced policy changes (2h0m11s).
• Mark Cuban's sudden support for a candidate is questioned, and it's suggested that he may have been triggered by something, possibly due to his past opinions and interactions with others (2h0m41s).
• Cuban had blocked the speaker on Twitter but continued to message and email them, possibly to avoid seeing their posts, which may have been bothering him (2h0m56s).
• Cuban's support for Trump in 2016 is questioned, given his claims of having bad business deals with Trump, which may not have been possible during Trump's presidency (2h1m16s).
• The speaker did not find Cuban's arguments for supporting a particular candidate to be reasonable (2h1m41s).
• The speaker bet on the election using Poly Market, initially influenced by a reputable pollster, Ann Selzer, but later changed their mind after seeing an interview where Selzer seemed uninformed (2h1m50s).
• The speaker's bet was also influenced by the correlation between Bitcoin's price and Trump's chances of winning the election (2h2m49s).
• The speaker had a position on Trump at 50 cents, closed it, and then considered buying a position at 35 cents, but ultimately had no position (2h2m55s).
• Prediction markets are considered more accurate than polls, but other markets like Bitcoin and the Mexican US Dollar exchange ratio can also be indicative of trends, as seen in the significant price movements of Bitcoin and Doge before the prediction market started moving (2h3m19s).
• The speaker did not have a big election position in this election, as they were focused on running their football team (2h3m50s).
• A rumor about a bet on the 2020 US presidential election is mentioned, where someone took a large position on the outcome, with 10 to 1 odds, and made a significant amount of money (2h4m32s).
• The story involves a person who believed Trump won the 2020 election and was convinced that the Supreme Court would overturn the result, leading to a large bet being placed on this outcome (2h4m11s).
• The speaker claims to be a disciplined gambler and would not have taken the bet, but acknowledges that they would have laid 11 to 1 odds on the fall of the Republic if given the opportunity (2h4m57s).
• The rumor may have originated from Phil Hellmuth, who has mentioned it multiple times on different podcasts (2h5m42s).

Discussion on America's future and Elon Musk's comments

• Despite the uncertainty and controversy surrounding the election, the speaker is bullish on America's future, citing the resilience of democracy and the fact that both sides acknowledged that democracy was on the line (2h6m7s).
• Elon Musk's comments on the Joe Rogan podcast about the potential impact of importing new citizens and giving them voting power are mentioned as a compelling perspective on the issue (2h6m25s).
• There are concerns that if Trump wins, the Democratic candidate will be the only viable option in future elections, and Republicans will have little chance of winning, while others believe that if Trump wins, democracy will be done, as stated by Oprah (2h6m44s).
• Trump is seen as honest about who he is, and his views have remained consistent over the years, unlike Kamala, who has given different versions of her views depending on her audience (2h7m7s).
• The importance of individuals like RFK and Elon is highlighted, and there is a sense of optimism about America's future (2h7m29s).

Conversation with Harris and Trump's victory speech

• A conversation takes place with someone named Harris, who is jokingly asked to make a concession speech or if he is drunk, and he responds by saying he is part of the "beta males for Harris" group (2h7m45s).
• Harris is complimented on a funny tweet, and it is acknowledged that he is a favorite among Kamala supporters in Silicon Valley, despite many of them being "terrible people" (2h8m5s).
• Trump is about to speak at the convention center, and it is expected that he will make a victory speech, which may be broadcast live on TV (2h8m38s).
• There is a discussion about the election results, with some people already calling it for Trump, and a suggestion that humility is needed (2h8m49s).
• Someone named Jason is jokingly told that their address has been sent to Trump, and there is a conversation about the market and the possibility of buying Robin contracts (2h9m10s).
• Despite the election results, there is still a sense of optimism, with a 33 to 1 chance of a different outcome, and a plan to buy Robin contracts to take advantage of any potential upside (2h9m28s).
• The outcome of the election is still uncertain, but it is leaning in a particular direction, and the results might not be finalized until January 6th or January 20th (2h10m0s).
• There are plans to ride in all cities, and the goal is to deport Jcal, who is the only one born in the country, possibly on Thursday (2h10m11s).

Personal views on the election and Democratic Party

• The speaker's vote is unknown, but they have a picture of their ballot and might share it (2h10m37s).
• The election outcome might mean that the speaker's strong beliefs are at odds with those of many other people, and they are prepared to be criticized for the next few weeks (2h11m22s).
• The speaker believes that the Democratic party has veered away from being pro-business and pro-tech, and has issues with regulation that blocks innovation (2h11m47s).
• The speaker has friends who are pro-Democrat and working on climate change, but are unable to make progress due to Democrat policies (2h12m13s).
• The speaker thinks that the current economic record is better than what the Democrats could claim, with low unemployment and strong markets (2h12m35s).
• If Trump wins, the speaker believes that the Democrats should have some introspection and consider what changes they need to make (2h13m8s).
• If the Democratic party loses, the speaker would change the party's approach to regulation, making it easier to do business, and revisit tax policies (2h13m21s).
• The country is expected to have a big conversation about culture war dynamics in the coming years, which the Democrats need to address as a party, particularly in areas like San Francisco and California where issues such as crime and education have become major problems (2h13m37s).
• The Democratic party has mixed views on these topics, making it a tough party to navigate, with both parties being "big tents" at the moment, but cut in random ways (2h14m25s).
• The reason for not supporting Trump is due to certain issues on the Republican side that couldn't be gotten behind, but it's equally hard for Democrats to win with their current messages (2h14m37s).
• The Democratic party is tough to manage due to the extreme left, which can fracture the party, and the need to bring in Centrist leaders who are moving more to the center (2h15m0s).
• The party needs a wake-up call for those who have moved more to the left, and hopefully, this will be a lesson for some folks (2h15m28s).
• The Democratic party made mistakes by going "full woke" and not having a primary, which made no sense, and not addressing the cognitive issues with Biden, who wasn't a good candidate (2h15m45s).
• A more robust conversation around Biden's dynamics should have started a year or a year and a half ago, and the party should have allowed a process to run to put a good candidate forward, which could have led to an easy victory against Donald Trump (2h16m20s).
• It was obvious that the party should have allowed a process to run and put a good candidate forward, but they didn't, and that was a major mistake (2h16m52s).

Biden's health, VP pick, and DEI discussion

• A discussion took place about a Biden event in May where high skill immigration was discussed, and it was noted that Biden seemed fine during the event, but some people have raised concerns about his mental health, specifically the possibility of sundowning, a condition associated with Alzheimer's or dementia that can cause irritability at night (2h17m7s).
• Sundowning was mentioned as a condition that can affect people with Alzheimer's or dementia, and it was noted that a Jack Russell Terrier named Al Z Russell had Sundowners (2h17m36s).
• The conversation turned to the topic of Biden's mental health and whether he is fit to continue as president, with some people claiming that they met with him in person and saw no issues, while others have raised concerns (2h18m14s).
• The discussion also touched on the topic of the VP pick, with some people suggesting that Shapiro would have been a more dynamic choice, while others argued that Tim Walls would have been a better pick due to his qualifications (2h19m10s).
• The conversation concluded that the postmortem on the election would likely focus on the party's loss of footing on key issues rather than the VP pick (2h19m34s).
• There should be a message of building more, accelerating progress, and driving innovation in areas like science, AI, and space exploration, but this message may not have been fully delivered due to time constraints and other factors (2h20m20s).
• The concept of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) and "wokeism" has been debated, with some arguing that it allows people to do their jobs better, worse, or the same, and that it has been taken too far in some respects (2h20m48s).
• The idea of creating fair and thoughtful work environments that support employees and promote diversity is seen as a logical direction, with JD Vance advocating for making it easier for families to balance work and personal life (2h21m19s).
• However, some people have taken the concept of DEI and "wokeism" too far, creating a slippery slope dynamic, and it has been weaponized by individuals with different agendas (2h21m55s).
• The outcome that some people are driving for is not aligned with the values of diversity and inclusion, and instead promotes a different vision for the country that is not desirable (2h22m26s).
• There are people on the right who are exploiting the ideas of "wokeism" to make their case for a different vision for the country, and it is not accurate to say that the left is fully compromised by these types of ideas (2h22m51s).
• It would be beneficial to find common ground and drive an outcome that brings people together, and someone like Elon Musk could potentially lead this effort (2h23m2s).
• Elon's companies reflect the kind of diverse and inclusive America that should be built, but this is not the type of organization that extreme critics of "wokeism" and DEI are thinking about (2h23m16s).
• Elon's companies are extreme meritocracies, but this is not the same as the type of organization that critics of "wokeism" and DEI are advocating for (2h23m38s).
• There is a need to acknowledge and respect the existence of certain groups, such as Jewish people, without pretending they do not exist or taking away from other issues (2h23m44s).
• Some individuals have weaponized certain concepts, like meritocracy and diversity, to make companies feel like they need to reel everything back in, but it is possible to blend these concepts together without compromising either (2h24m27s).
• Meritocracy should exist, but it is also important to find a way to make it work with diversity, rather than seeing them as trade-offs (2h24m35s).
• The concept of equity has been a point of debate, with some people getting upset about it, but it is a complex issue that requires thoughtful consideration (2h24m57s).
• Successful people are often hated in America, and it is not fair to dislike someone without knowing them, but it is also important to acknowledge the role of upbringing and privilege in achieving success (2h25m25s).
• It is not crazy to think that society should work on improving environments for everyone, regardless of race, to allow anyone to build a company and innovate (2h26m7s).
• The idea of building inclusive organizations and being thoughtful about the talent hiring process is a reasonable thing, but some concepts, like oppressor-oppressed dynamics, have gone too far (2h26m44s).
• It is unclear whether those trying to tear down existing systems will be successful (2h27m0s).

Regulation, innovation, and immigration

• The United States has a crisis in areas such as energy, transportation, EVs, and autonomous vehicles due to unending regulation, including state and federal regulations, which creates endless loops for people to navigate (2h27m25s).
• There is a need to solve the issue of regulation to drive innovation and acceleration, with the goal of creating "Fast Lanes" for innovation and job creation (2h28m24s).
• The US should focus on innovation and building, which will create a significant number of jobs, but will also require addressing immigration to bring in the necessary talent (2h28m49s).
• The conversation has been ongoing for three hours, and the participants agree that it's time to wrap up (2h29m12s).
• Jason Calacanis is tired after being woken up at 6:30 in the morning to participate in the conversation (2h29m25s).

Soccer team fundraiser and San Francisco politics

• David Sacks is encouraged to share a story about his soccer team, which is compared to the real-life version of Ted Lasso (2h29m37s).
• David Sacks is raising money for the victims of devastating floods in the Valencia region of Spain, and has agreed to match every dollar donated up to $500,000 (2h30m16s).
• A $5,000 match has been made, and others are encouraged to donate, with mentions of Aon, Freeberg, and Chamas also donating $5,000 each (2h30m29s).
• Daniel Lurayn, a friend of the group, has been voted in as the mayor of San Francisco, and several transformative candidates have been elected to the Board of Supervisors (2h30m57s).
• San Francisco's policies, such as those on prosecutions and open-air drug markets, can be studied to understand their impact, providing valuable evidence on their effectiveness (2h31m30s).
• The decisions on legalizing hardcore drugs have resulted in huge bodies of evidence showing that these policies do not work (2h31m51s).
• The implementation of these ideas is seen as a way for politicians to climb the ranks in the Democratic party, with some politicians being backed by individuals like Soros (2h32m18s).
• Marijuana is viewed as a scourge, and its legalization is a topic of debate, with some arguing that it should be highly regulated (2h32m34s).
• The group discusses the importance of regulating cannabis and the need for parents to be aware of its potential harm to children (2h32m40s).
• The conversation is interrupted, and the group says their goodbyes, with an invitation to a party on December 7th and an offer to play poker (2h33m20s).
• Information on donating to the Red Cross is shared, with a mention of a Twitter post by Haralabob that will provide details on how to donate (2h33m51s).

Final election updates and cabinet speculation

• CNN has called the state of Georgia for Trump, and the concession and victory speeches may be underway, with Trump currently leading 246 to Harris' 210 according to CNN, and 230 to Harris' 210 according to the New York Times (2h34m32s).
• There is speculation about who will be appointed to key positions in the Trump administration, including Treasury, State, Housing and Urban Development, and Press Secretary (2h35m16s).
• Some people have expressed concerns about Trump's presidency, including his potential to listen to advisors like Steve Bannon, who has suggested deporting 15 million people (2h36m41s).
• Others have suggested that Trump may listen to more moderate voices, such as Elon Musk, who is unlikely to support extreme policies like mass deportation (2h37m1s).
• There is a need for empathy and understanding in addressing the issue of immigration, as many people who are in the country without documentation were told they could come and are seeking a better life (2h37m30s).
• The issue of immigration is complex and requires a thoughtful and nuanced approach, rather than simply blaming those who are in the country without documentation (2h37m44s).
• Some people have expressed concerns about Trump's character and the potential consequences of his presidency, but also acknowledge that he may be the lesser of two evils in a binary choice (2h36m5s).
• There is speculation about how Trump will approach the issue of immigration, with some suggesting that he may start by deporting criminals and then work his way up to addressing the broader issue (2h37m14s).
• The discussion revolves around the complexities of immigration and the need for empathy when dealing with the issue, acknowledging that many immigrants come from difficult conditions and are seeking a better life in the United States (2h37m49s).
• A proposed solution involves stopping the influx of immigrants at the border, deporting criminals immediately, and working through a process to humanely and compassionately deal with the remaining individuals (2h38m40s).
• The conversation touches on the idea that a potential Trump Administration could be a "refounding moment" for the United States, allowing for a reset of expectations and a shift in the administrative class's mindset (2h39m10s).
• The speakers express excitement about the possibility of Donald J. Trump winning the election, with one individual stating that they take the potential win personally and are eager to see the changes it could bring (2h39m42s).
• The conversation is interrupted by news that Kamala Harris will not be speaking that night, and the speakers begin to discuss the likelihood of Trump's win, with one person stating that it is "virtually guaranteed" at that point (2h39m55s).
• The discussion comes to a close as the speakers reflect on the election results and the potential implications for the future of the United States (2h40m39s).
• The conversation ends with the speakers expressing their fatigue and deciding to call it a night, with plans to reflect on the election results and their implications the following day (2h40m56s).

Freeberg's vote and reflections on the election

• One speaker, Freeberg, shares his opinion on the election, stating that he voted for Trump, despite jokingly claiming to have voted for RFK (2h41m22s).
• The Democratic Party's campaign had opportunities that were not fully utilized, such as ending the Biden nomination process earlier and making a stronger VP pick, despite having well-executed messages (2h41m37s).
• The messages from the Democratic campaign did not resonate as strongly as those from the Trump campaign, which is a concern for the future (2h41m58s).
• There are concerns about the potential consequences of dropping all income taxes while keeping entitlements fully funded, with many question marks ahead for the next four years (2h42m8s).
• Elon Musk's endorsement from Mar-a-Lago made a huge difference in the campaign, and Trump's appearances on podcasts like Rogan and Lex helped him appeal to normal people (2h43m12s).
• Kamala's campaign would have been damaged if she had gone on Rogan's podcast, as she would have struggled to respond to tough questions (2h43m28s).
• The Democratic Party's inability to field a candidate who could beat Trump, despite his unpopularity, highlights the need for soul-searching and reform within the party (2h43m41s).
• The party needs to be more inclusive and welcoming to successful people, including those from Silicon Valley, technologists, and venture capitalists, who feel courted by Republicans but not by Democrats (2h44m2s).
• The party's failure to court these groups is seen as a major mistake, and there is a need for change in how the party runs its primaries and institutions (2h44m27s).