Election Expert: “We’re in the age of ‘meme warfare…”

The Evolving Landscape of Political Campaigns

• The upcoming US election has led to a massive marketing effort by political campaigns, with over a billion dollars being spent to persuade people to vote for a particular candidate (28s).
• The marketing machine behind political campaigns uses various tactics and persuasion techniques to convince people to vote for a candidate, similar to how businesses try to convince people to buy their products (33s).
• Sasha Eisenberg, an expert who has studied the marketing machines behind political campaigns for decades, wrote a book called "The Victory Lab" that explores the science and tactics used by these campaigns (54s).
• The industry that helps politicians get elected is a multi-billion dollar industry, with around $6 billion spent annually on marketing and advertising for political purposes (1m20s).

Navigating Bias and Accessing Information

• When a marketing tactic works, the people behind it often take credit and claim it was their genius that made it successful, but when it doesn't work, they deflect blame and claim the politician had no charisma (1m36s).
• Eisenberg had to navigate this bias while writing his book, and he found that reporting on the industry was difficult due to the selective release of information by campaigns and the desire to impress donors without giving away competitive advantages (2m6s).
• After an election, campaigns often cease to exist, and the people involved move on to new jobs, making it easier to get real details about what they did during the campaign (3m13s).
• There are post-election conferences and gatherings where campaign staff and consultants share stories and details about what worked and what didn't during the campaign (3m37s).
• The conference circuit for Democrats and Republicans is a place where they trade notes and launch startups, especially every two and four years, creating a window for new businesses to emerge (3m41s).
• In a campaign, employees are initially afraid to talk to reporters due to the risk of being fired for leaking information, but after the campaign, they often take credit for their work and share their stories (3m53s).

The Obama 2012 Campaign: A Case Study

• The Obama analytics department in 2012, also known as "the cave," was a pioneering team of 52-54 people who worked on the campaign, and after the campaign, they started a firm with Eric Schmidt and gave interviews, taking credit for their work (4m21s).

Post-Campaign Narratives and Monocausal Explanations

• The outcome of a campaign has a binary result, with one candidate winning and the other losing, and no single factor determines the outcome, but rather a combination of many big and small things (5m13s).
• After a campaign, there is a storytelling exercise to determine why the election turned out a certain way, with various actors trying to tell the most convincing story, including moderates and technical tacticians (5m44s).
• It's essential to be skeptical of monocausal explanations for electoral politics and to be aware of people's incentives for telling certain types of stories, especially when they have a transparent agenda (6m16s).

Learning from Adjacencies and Applying Persuasion Techniques

• Entrepreneurs can learn from adjacencies, such as the business world, to apply successful strategies to politics, and books like Cialdini's "Persuasion" can provide valuable insights (6m44s).
• A tactic used in election campaigns involves sending voters their public voting history, as well as that of their neighbors, to create a sense of being watched and potentially influencing their voting behavior (7m5s).

The Rise of Misinformation and Disinformation

• Traditionally, news outlets and pundits focus on the latest stories and statements from politicians, but this approach overlooks the impact of misinformation and disinformation in the online environment (7m31s).
• The 2020 Biden campaign had a significant amount of funding and was looking for ways to spend it effectively, leading to the concept of the "Malarkey Factory," which aimed to address misinformation (8m11s).
• The Malarkey Factory was part of the campaign's effort to understand the new viral media environment, where anyone can launch a story and it can spread quickly, making it difficult to track the source and motives behind it (8m41s).
• In the past, campaign operatives could track TV ads, access opponents' campaign finance reports, and read press coverage to understand where voters were getting their information, but the internet has changed this dynamic (8m48s).
• The spread of disinformation has made it challenging for campaigns to respond effectively, as they don't know who is behind the misinformation or what their motives are (9m31s).
• The initial impulse in responding to disinformation is to not let an attack go unanswered and to always be on offense, but this approach may not be effective in the online environment (10m9s).
• A campaign strategy was developed to shift focus from responding to individual pieces of content to understanding which viral narratives would be most damaging to the campaign, in order to pre-emptively address them and avoid overreacting (10m26s).
• This approach was based on the idea that most content does not need to be responded to, as it is unlikely to change voters' opinions, but rather focus on the content that meets existing anxieties that voters have about certain issues or candidates (11m9s).
• The campaign identified the need to understand which narratives would do the most harm, so that when they emerged, they would have a framework for responding appropriately (11m32s).

Leveraging AI in Political Campaigns

• A survey of 2,000 Global Marketing leaders by HubSpot found that high-growth businesses are using AI strategies to separate themselves from low-growth businesses, and these strategies can be applied to other businesses for free (12m17s).

The "Harm Index" and Targeting Persuadable Voters

• The "harm index" was a survey conducted over the summer of 2020, which tested various storylines, some based in truth and others in lies, to see how they would affect voters' opinions of Joe Biden (12m35s).
• The survey asked voters three questions: if they were familiar with the storyline, if they thought it was true, and if it would make them less likely to vote for Joe Biden (12m51s).
• The survey found that while many people were familiar with the "Hunter Biden corruption" storyline, not many said it would make them less likely to vote for Joe Biden, and focus groups revealed that people did not think Biden was driven by personal financial gain (13m15s).
• Research on the 2020 US presidential election found that some voters were less likely to vote for Joe Biden due to concerns about his age and mental infirmity, but this was not a new issue and was already known by many people (13m52s).
• Focus groups revealed that voters were not concerned about Biden's physical well-being, but rather saw him as a fundamentally weak political figure, which was partly due to being defined as vice president (14m40s).
• The Biden campaign responded to concerns about his age and mental condition by buying ads in places where persuadable voters would be exposed to that type of content, including on Fox News and Breitbart websites (15m16s).
• The campaign targeted persuadable voters who were sensitive to the age issue with ads that did not directly address the topic, but instead featured Biden talking about his values and policies (15m53s).
• The most successful ad tested by the campaign was a 15-second video of Biden speaking directly to camera about his middle-class values and policies, which resonated with voters who wanted to hear him articulate his worldview in his own voice (16m0s).
• The campaign found that voters were suspicious of glossy or slick ads, and instead opted for a more unedited and direct approach to political advertising (16m47s).

Tracking Issues and Prioritizing Campaign Efforts

• The 2016 US presidential campaign used a chart to track the reach and impact of various issues, with the x-axis representing the number of people aware of an issue and the y-axis representing its potential impact on their vote, allowing the campaign to tactically decide which issues to focus on (17m43s).
• Issues with high reach but low impact were considered low priority, while those with high impact but low reach were monitored in case they spread to a wider audience, and issues with both high reach and impact were addressed promptly (18m25s).

The Trump 2016 Campaign: An Unconventional Approach

• Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign was unconventional in that it spent a significantly smaller budget than Hillary Clinton's, with a much larger proportion of its budget allocated to digital spending rather than traditional TV advertising (19m52s).
• Trump's campaign was dominated by free media coverage, and his digital spending was largely focused on Facebook ads, with Jared Kushner convincing Trump to invest in online advertising starting in the spring of 2016 (20m31s).
• Trump's approach to his campaign was not traditional, and he has admitted that he did not initially expect to win, which meant that he did not have a clear plan in place until after his victory (19m16s).
• Trump's use of digital advertising and his ability to dominate free media coverage were key factors in his success, and his campaign's approach was seen as a significant shift away from traditional TV-dominated campaigns (19m41s).

Trump's Digital Strategy and the Power of Facebook Ads

• A viral clip from a documentary called "The Art of the Surge" shows a scene where Donald Trump is sitting next to a blonde woman, orating his tweets in response to something Kamala Harris said on TV, and the woman is typing them out, revealing that Trump doesn't use a computer and relies on others to manage his social media presence (21m3s).
• At the time, Trump had a Twitter account for 5 years and understood its importance in driving traditional news coverage and his celebrity status (21m31s).
• Jared Kushner convinced Trump to spend money on Facebook ads, which became a revenue center for the campaign through fundraising, allowing Trump to target people who wanted to give him money and create a return on investment (21m47s).
• Trump started spending real money on Facebook ads because he saw a return on investment, which resonated with him on an economic level, rather than as part of a political strategy (22m16s).

Building an Online Community and the Maga Movement

• The combination of Trump's organic ability to draw attention online and the amplification of his message through paid spending on Facebook advertising created a deep and meaningful community online (22m31s).
• In contrast to Obama, who had developed large email lists and social media followings, Trump's online presence was more interactive and community-driven, rather than just transactional (23m8s).
• Obama's online strategy was focused on collecting email addresses, cell phone numbers, and social media followers, but he mostly used these channels to ask for money or volunteer work, whereas Trump's approach was more engaging and created a sense of community (23m43s).
• The Obama campaign in 2012 spent hundreds of millions of dollars on opinion research, polling, focus groups, and other qualitative research to test their ads and mail, resulting in a command and control approach to communication (24m38s).
• In contrast, Trump shared content from his enthusiastic supporters, creating a community of invested people who felt part of the campaign, which led to the development of a meme culture around him (25m17s).
• This approach allowed Trump to create a satisfying online community for his supporters, who received reinforcement from like-minded people, a phenomenon not seen with other politicians like Obama, Hillary Clinton, or Joe Biden (25m45s).

Fundraising as a Persuasion Tool

• Trump's approach required relinquishing control over communications, which few politicians are willing to do, but it allowed him to create a self-sustaining fundraising machine (26m14s).
• Jared Kushner changed the campaign's approach from spending money to buy votes to spending money to raise more money, creating a cycle where fundraising led to more fundraising and ultimately votes (26m23s).
• Traditionally, campaigns have a clear divide between fundraising and persuasion or get-out-the-vote communication, with separate offices and budgets, but Trump's approach blurred these lines (26m52s).
• Trump's use of Facebook for prospecting and fundraising helped shape opinions, turned supporters into volunteers, and raised money, a strategy that differed from traditional campaign approaches (27m17s).
• Trump's fundraising targets were not separate from his persuasion targets, as some people who were persuaded to support him also became donors and volunteers (27m44s).

Trump as an Influencer Brand

• Trump's campaign can be seen as an influencer brand, where he uses his personal image to sell his ideas and policies, similar to how celebrities like Kylie Jenner and George Clooney promote products (27m56s).
• Trump has created a community around his brand, known as the Maga movement, which has a clear identity and set of values, whereas Kamala's campaign lacks a similar sense of community and identity (28m20s).

The Kamala Harris Campaign: Challenges and Novel Tactics

• Kamala's campaign has been at a disadvantage due to its late start in July, which makes it harder to build an online audience, and her campaign may end up being the shortest in modern American history (29m3s).
• Despite the challenges, Kamala's campaign has done some things well, such as raising a lot of money quickly and going viral on TikTok, where she has used alternative media to reach her audience (29m34s).
• Kamala's campaign has also used novel tactics, such as clipping and amplifying Trump's controversial statements, which is a departure from the previous strategy of not giving him oxygen and exposure (30m22s).
• This approach is similar to what Media Matters does with Fox News clips, where they highlight the most outrageous and controversial statements to criticize and mock them (30m51s).

Contrasting Campaign Mentalities and Online Engagement

• The Trump campaign has a different mentality compared to the Democrats, with a more dynamic candidate and a greater willingness to engage in "meme warfare" and name-calling, which the Biden campaign avoided due to emphasizing the dignity of the office (31m7s).
• The Trump campaign has more freedom to mix it up online and has been more willing to engage with influencers, although they may have been scrambling to cultivate these relationships (32m2s).
• The Biden campaign, on the other hand, may have been hindered by their emphasis on dignity and their reluctance to engage in "meme warfare," which may have limited their ability to connect with younger voters and influencers (31m40s).

Mobilizing Voters and the Role of Super PACs

• The Trump campaign's strategy is focused on mobilizing young men, especially young men of color, but their organization and tactics may not be well-suited to achieve this goal (33m3s).
• Research suggests that high-quality, face-to-face interactions between volunteers and potential voters are the most effective way to mobilize new voters, but the Trump campaign has outsourced much of this work to the America Pack super PAC (33m32s).
• The division of labor between campaigns and super PACs has been a topic of debate, with campaigns typically handling labor-intensive, grassroots work and super PACs handling advertising and other scalable tasks (34m35s).
• The Trump campaign's decision to outsource their ground game to America Pack may be a mismatch between their strategy and organization, which could hinder their ability to mobilize new voters (32m58s).

Outside Groups and the Use of Bounties

• Outside groups, such as the one run by Elon Musk, are buying ads, mostly on TV and some digital, to amplify messages, as they cannot directly coordinate with each other, and are instead focusing on door knocking and other tactics (34m50s).
• Elon Musk's group is paying people to get their friends to sign petitions, offering bounties, such as $47, in exchange for information, including support for the first and second amendment (35m19s).
• This approach seems like a roundabout way to collect information that is already available, such as voter databases, and may be more effective for long-term movement building rather than getting people to vote for the first or second time (35m41s).

Inefficient Tactics and Mismatched Strategies

• The group is also hiring day laborers to knock on doors, which can lead to poor incentives and inefficient work, as people are paid by the hour or per completed task (36m32s).
• The Trump organization's strategy and tactics do not seem to be aligned, and their approach appears less competent compared to a more traditional Democratic campaign, such as the one run by Kamala Harris (37m4s).
• Paying people to sign petitions, which cannot be directly linked to voting, may be a tactic to collect information and target specific groups with digital advertising and door knocking, but the ultimate goal is unclear (37m34s).

Targeted Marketing and the Cost of Mistargeting

• Using the collected information to target specific groups with advertising and door knocking could be an effective strategy, but it is only one step in a larger process (37m58s).
• The process of targeted marketing in politics requires a high level of precision, as the cost of mistargeting or false positives can be extremely high, unlike in business marketing where the cost of mistargeting is relatively low (38m10s).
• In politics, mistargeting can lead to not only wasting resources but also inadvertently increasing the chances of the opponent's success, which is a unique challenge not typically seen in consumer marketing (38m37s).
• The only comparable scenarios in the marketing world where misidentifying targets can be costly are in industries such as insurance or credit cards, where incorrect assessments can lead to significant financial losses (39m37s).
• Moving from business to politics requires a different approach, as simply throwing resources at a problem, like bombarding people with advertisements, may work in business but is ineffective and potentially counterproductive in politics (40m16s).

The Ugliest Part of Political Marketing: Disinformation

• Studying multiple election cycles and the teams behind them has revealed the complexities and challenges of political marketing, including the spread of disinformation, which is a particularly concerning aspect (40m52s).
• The use of data and experimentation in politics was initially seen as a way to increase voter turnout and provide relevant information, but the spread of disinformation has become a significant issue (41m22s).
• The ugliest part of political marketing is the disinformation aspect, which can have serious consequences and undermine the democratic process (41m15s).

AI-Generated Content and the Future of Campaigns

• The use of technology and innovation in democracy was initially seen as an improvement, as it allowed campaigns to target specific messages to individual voters based on their interests and concerns, such as cancer research (41m36s).
• However, the increased ability for people to reach large numbers of voters without being constrained by expectations of honesty and accountability has become a concern, especially with the rise of AI-generated deep faked audio and video (42m20s).
• AI has made it possible to create convincing but fake content, such as audio and video, for a relatively low cost, which can be used to manipulate public opinion (42m24s).
• The use of AI phone agents to make calls to voters is also a possibility, which could potentially replace traditional phone banking methods (42m40s).
• Despite the potential benefits of using AI in campaigns, many are hesitant to adopt these technologies due to concerns about backlash and being associated with manipulation or invasive tactics (43m7s).
• However, some campaigns are using AI in more limited ways, such as brainstorming and drafting fundraising emails, which can help to increase efficiency and effectiveness (43m41s).
• The use of AI in campaigns is expected to increase in the future, but for now, it is mostly being used in behind-the-scenes tasks such as email drafting and testing (44m24s).

Reaching Younger Voters Through Video Games

• Some campaigns are also experimenting with new ways of reaching voters, such as advertising in video games like Fortnite, which can help to reach a younger demographic (44m30s).
• The decision to advertise in video games may be driven by a desire to reach a younger audience and to take advantage of the fact that campaigns have a lot of money to spend and a limited amount of time to spend it (44m44s).
• At the end of a campaign, decisions are driven less by efficiency and more by where money can be quickly spent, resulting in tactics like sound trucks, as TV markets in battleground states become saturated and direct mail options are exhausted (45m32s).

The Podcast Election and Alternative Media

• The 2020 US presidential election was referred to as the "podcast election" due to the growing influence of podcasts as a medium for unedited and unfiltered conversations with candidates (45m56s).
• Some candidates, including Trump and JD Vance, have appeared on popular podcasts like Joe Rogan's, while others, like Kamala Harris, have declined such opportunities (46m24s).
• The decision by Kamala Harris not to appear on Joe Rogan's podcast was met with mixed reactions, ranging from seeing it as a missed opportunity to questioning the appropriateness of the invitation given her position as Vice President (46m44s).

Kamala Harris's Media Appearances and Campaign Challenges

• Kamala Harris's campaign was initially slow to put her out in various media venues, but she eventually appeared on shows like "The View" and "Daddy" (47m17s).
• Harris's campaign had to be built from scratch quickly, and she had to prepare for unexpected events like debates and a nomination speech (47m35s).
• One advantage of having Kamala Harris on the ticket was her ability to work a full day, be more dynamic, and connect with pop culture, potentially allowing her to do more events and interviews than Joe Biden (47m52s).

The Biden Campaign's Focus on Disinformation Recipients

• The 2020 US presidential election saw a shift in campaign strategies, with the Biden campaign focusing on the recipients of disinformation rather than the producers, which has been a common mistake in the past (49m50s).
• A new era of asymmetry has been created in the digital environment, where campaigns realize their opposition is not just another candidate or party, but also foreign intelligence services or individuals attacking them online (49m21s).
• The search for a playbook on how to communicate in this environment is ongoing, as traditional campaign strategies are no longer effective (49m39s).

Fighting Conspiracy Theories with Memes

• A progressive group called "We Defend Truth" has been fighting conspiracy theories around the 2020 election and COVID-19 vaccines by hiring successful online meme makers to engage in "meme warfare" (50m8s).
• The group's theory is that to effectively communicate online, one must engage in the vernacular of the internet, using humor, coarseness, and pop culture references to entertain and inform before earning the right to communicate (50m40s).
• Traditional political communication must fundamentally rethink itself to adapt to the two-way or multi-linear environment of social media, moving away from the one-way broadcast dynamic of modern campaigning (51m15s).

Adapting to the Multi-Linear Environment of Social Media

• The shift in communication strategies is similar to the evolution of TV and movie production, where the first few minutes of a show were used to establish the scene, but now must be more engaging and attention-grabbing from the start (51m34s).
• Online content creators have mastered the art of capturing viewers' attention in the first few seconds of a video, often using carefully chosen words and phrases to keep them engaged, a strategy that traditional TV and politicians could learn from (52m4s).
• In the past, online campaigning involved taking offline strategies and adapting them for the internet, but now there's a growing understanding of the need for a more instinctual approach to online campaigning (53m20s).
• The 2020s have seen a shift in how politicians approach online campaigning, with some Democrats realizing they need to improve their online presence after being outmaneuvered by Trump's online strategy (53m54s).

The Misunderstood Opportunity of Off-Cycle Communication

• The most mispriced or misunderstood opportunity in elections is communicating with voters outside of election cycles, which could provide a significant political upside (54m42s).
• A successful example of this strategy is Donald Trump's ability to build a sense of nostalgia for his presidency during a period in 2021-2022 when he was largely out of the news, allowing him to maintain a connection with his base (55m2s).
• The Democrats could have continued to define the previous president through advertising, reminding people of the reasons behind unemployment and inflation in 2021, but they pulled away from him at a crucial moment (55m26s).
• Political money tends to disappear outside of election cycles, and there is limited interest in party-based branding, despite 45% of the country identifying as Democrats and 45% as Republicans who consistently vote for their party (55m52s).
• There are advantages to branding parties in a counter-cyclical way, reminding people of what each party stands for when they are not being bombarded by TV ads, which could lead to long-term audience building for parties (56m20s).

The Business of Media Buying and Campaign Modeling

• The business model of media buyers, who get paid a commission off of the ads they place, is still the most astounding, with some making hundreds of millions of dollars, particularly in digital advertising (57m7s).
• There are a handful of dominant ad buyers in each party, with some also making ads and being part of a bigger media business, likely generating revenue in the hundred million range (57m44s).
• Boutique firms are doing campaign-specific modeling, and with advancements in data and modeling, opportunities are emerging for smaller-scale campaigns to utilize these tools, which were previously only accessible to presidential campaigns (58m29s).
• Many individuals running for local offices, such as State Representative, may have limited campaign resources and rely on family members or friends to manage their campaigns, creating a gap between their capabilities and the sophistication of available tools and data (58m57s).
• This gap presents an opportunity for developers to create more accessible and affordable tools for local campaigns, bridging the divide between the capabilities of engaged individuals and the available technology (59m16s).

Sasha Eisenberg's New Book and Unique Perspective

• Sasha Eisenberg has written a new book titled "The LIE Detectives: In Search of a Playbook for Winning Elections in the Disinformation Age," which addresses the challenges of running elections in the current information landscape (59m38s).
• Eisenberg's website, sashaeisenberg.com, features information about her books, including her first book about the global sushi business (59m45s).
• Eisenberg enjoys discussing politics from a unique angle, differing from the typical perspectives presented in mainstream media (59m57s).