Fighting Election Fiction, Palantir's Record Results | Bloomberg Technology

Palantir and US Election Day

• Palantir shares are on track for their biggest jump since February, driven by revenue growth and unwavering AI demand from corporate America and the public sector, with the company's market cap at $114 billion (1m22s).
• The company's success is attributed to its connection with implementing Large Language Models (LLMs) and finding the right pivot, leading to strong momentum on the government side and defense tech companies on the commercial side (2m0s).
• Palantir has done particularly well in the US due to its data lineage and ontology, but there are concerns about its diversification and reliance on the US government, with a note suggesting a rush to spend budgets from the US government perspective (2m31s).
• The company's international business, which accounts for over 30% of its revenue, is a concern due to heightened geopolitical tensions and the controversy surrounding its CEO (3m4s).
• Palantir currently trades at a premium multiple, but sustaining this momentum is uncertain, with international growth being a key factor (3m22s).

US Election Day Overview

• It is election day in the US, with polling showing a close race, and turnout is expected to be a crucial factor in determining the outcome (3m43s).
• Over 83 million people have already cast their votes, and the focus is on seven key battleground states in the Rust Belt and Sunbelt, where candidates have been campaigning heavily (4m23s).
• The outcome of the election may be uncertain, with a warning that it may be a case that is not yet known (4m59s).
• The outcome of the presidential election is uncertain, with no clear indication of who will reach 270 electoral votes, and it may take days to determine the winner (5m1s).
• Both candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, made closing remarks, with Trump trying to position himself as the change candidate and Harris seeking to turn the page on what she calls a dark part of American politics (5m37s).
• Trump is expected to vote in his home state of Florida, despite being a convicted felon, as New York law allows convicted felons to vote and Florida recognizes this (6m2s).
• Kamala Harris is in D.C. and will be attending her election night party at Howard University, with nothing left for either candidate to do but wait for the tally to come in (6m15s).

Market Reactions and Tech Implications

• Equity markets are higher, with cap tech stocks leading the way, indicating that the markets are ready for the election to be over and for some of the uncertainties to be resolved (6m43s).
• The outcome of the election may have implications for the tech industry, particularly in terms of regulatory issues, with potential challenges in areas such as national security, antitrust, and the semiconductor industry (7m21s).
• The composition of Congress will also have an impact on regulation, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and the standing impact of the IRA (8m24s).
• The outcome of the election may affect the electric vehicle industry, with a Democratic sweep potentially leading to more regulation, while a Republican sweep may lead to less regulation (8m55s).
• The American people have spoken through sales, with Tesla doing well, but Ford and GM's EV sales being down, which may indicate that the public may not be in favor of more regulation (9m0s).
• The semiconductor industry is a key area of focus, with potential challenges in terms of future policy, including building in the U.S. and importing and exporting from China (9m40s).
• Tesla is one of the leading points contributors to the NASDAQ, along with NVIDIA, which is leading the way (9m32s).
• The development of AI and chips in the US is considered a long-term national security bet that will take time to materialize, with a potential timeline of 10 to 15 years (9m51s).
• The US government's subsidies and support for the chips sector building in the US are not a concern, as it reduces reliance on Taiwan and South Korea and brings production to the US, although it may increase production costs (10m28s).
• The increased production costs in the US could lead to inflationary pressures and monetary policy discussions (11m3s).

Elon Musk and the Pennsylvania Sweepstakes

• NXP's earnings have been underwhelming due to issues with the car industry, a slowdown in automotive customers, and weak industrial demand, contributing to the downside on the NASDAQ 100 (11m18s).
• A Pennsylvania judge rejected a request to halt Elon Musk's million-dollar sweepstakes, which was contested by Donald Trump's team on the grounds that it violated state lottery laws and consumer protection laws (12m13s).
• The judge decided that the sweepstakes was not a lottery, but rather an employment contract for spokespeople, and therefore did not violate state laws (13m5s).
• Although the DA may continue to pursue damages, the emergency injunction motion is largely moot since the giveaway is over and Elon Musk has stated that no more money will be given away (14m14s).
• Elon Musk's attempt to move the case to federal court was unsuccessful, and the case was ultimately decided in his favor (14m24s).

Tech's Role in US Politics

• The involvement of tech heavyweights like Elon Musk in the US election has been significant, with some arguing that their impact began long before the 2024 decision (15m0s).
• The current age of tech began in the 1980s with the desktop computer, and now we are in the third act in terms of AI and the space race (15m28s).
• Silicon Valley's players, many of whom are still the same as they were in the 1980s, started becoming politically active in the 1980s and engaged with the government in terms of regulation, investment, and the idea of government as a customer (15m59s).
• Elon Musk might take a leading role in the administration if Trump gets in, and we are getting more transparency about the roles of tech leaders, possibly due to social media and their self-identification (16m21s).
• The power of tech is now being seen, and previously, the PayPal Mafia functioned with a kind of oath of silence in terms of their political views, but now we are seeing how much someone like Elon Musk can influence narratives (16m54s).
• An endorsement from a technology leader like Musk can have some impact on the electorate, as seen in the 1992 election when Clinton received an endorsement from Silicon Valley, which helped shift the mood somewhat (17m50s).
• Technology is a priority for both campaigns in the selection, and candidates competing for Silicon Valley votes and endorsements means it is a win-win for Silicon Valley regardless of who is in the White House (18m46s).
• The electorate is becoming more aware of the power of big tech, and people like Elon Musk have helped add to the need for more transparency, moving the process to be more transparent inadvertently (19m38s).

Other Tech News and Election Focus

• The discussion also touched on other tech-related topics, including Apple's investment in Indonesia, Nintendo's slashed outlook, and Amazon's commitment to building a data center campus (20m0s).
• A nuclear plant in Pennsylvania is set to be powered by Talen, despite the top US energy regulator rejecting a special deal for the company (20m57s).
• Apple is planning to pitch an investment for an Indonesian factory to make products, as part of a bid to lift Indonesia's ban on iPhone 16 sales over a domestic manufacturing requirement (21m6s).
• The discussion is shifting to separating election fact from fiction, with a focus on a story about Polymarket, a predictions betting platform (21m25s).
• People are lining up to cast their votes, and big tech is leading the charge, with Bitcoin on the higher side, potentially as a proxy for a potential Trump administration (22m49s).

Market Updates and Polymarket Controversy

• Palantir is showing resilient AI demand, with a 22% increase in numbers, particularly strong growth in the United States (23m11s).
• Super Micro Computer is expected to show a 200% increase in sales for the fiscal quarter, but investors are more interested in the company's transparency and the ongoing DOJ investigation (23m29s).
• Bitcoin has seen double-digit moves and quadruple the volatility in seven out of the last eight trading days, potentially as a proxy for a Trump win (23m50s).
• Polymarket has been paying US-based influencers to promote election betting, despite being barred from letting anyone in the country use the tool to place wagers (24m8s).
• The platform has been reaching out to US-based social media influencers to pay for their content, and has seen a rise in partners, despite not being supposed to target the US (24m59s).
• Polymarket's counterargument is that they just want eyeballs on their service, even if US users are barred from making trades, with 99% of users just viewing the website as a news source (25m51s).
• However, the way the data is presented on social media can be misleading, making it look like poll data, which is not supposed to include information from outside the US (26m20s).
• The platform's predictions can be seen as manipulative, as they look like poll data, but are actually based on trades from people outside the US (26m43s).

Election Misinformation and Public Trust

• The 2024 US election is marked by amplified divisive rhetoric, making it challenging to separate fact from fiction, with many looking to verify the accuracy of information (27m11s).
• Danielle Lee Tomson from the Center for an Informed Public notes that social media on election day can be overwhelming, making it hard to discern a true signal from the noise (27m35s).
• US cybersecurity officials are trying to reestablish trust with the voting base, and research suggests that misinformation and distrust will be a significant factor in the 2024 election (28m11s).
• The American public, particularly on the Republican right, has been primed to mistrust election data, with many convinced that the election will not be safe despite officials' assurances (28m42s).
• The "three C's" – convincing the public that the election is not safe, encouraging people to collect evidence of wrongdoing, and contesting election results – are expected to play out online (28m51s).
• Issues in the 2024 election include fraudulent voter registration forms and alleged glitches in voting machines, but these issues tend to have remedies (30m2s).
• Danielle Lee Tomson's organization is focused on gathering data on how rumors spread on platforms to inform policy change and help election officials gain and maintain the trust of the American public (30m38s).

US Election Security and Foreign Interference

• Former Chief of Staff Kiersten Todt notes that while election interference fears are present, the US is resilient and safe, with a focus on alleviating fears of election interference (31m57s).
• Election security is considered national security, and election officials and stakeholders have never been more prepared to administer a safe, secure, and resilient election (32m28s).
• After the 2016 election, elections became critical infrastructure, meaning they are crucial to how society functions, and additional resources have been allocated to state and local officials to prepare for and administer elections (32m42s).
• The federal government has worked closely with state and local officials to conduct physical assessments of election systems and run almost 200 exercises to prepare for different scenarios that may come into play (33m15s).
• Elections are not connected to the internet, giving them a different level of resilience, and 97% of registered voters are in jurisdictions with paper records, providing a backup and resilience for audits (33m32s).
• U.S. intelligence agencies have issued a joint statement reporting unprecedented efforts by adversaries, with Russia at the forefront, to disrupt the election (33m54s).
• Foreign adversaries are conducting malign influence operations to undermine the confidence of Americans in their democracy and pit Americans against each other (34m19s).
• The federal government is working across agencies to put out joint announcements and get information out as quickly as possible, which is a big difference from previous years (34m40s).
• The biggest vulnerabilities that voters may face are not cybersecurity, but rather people's confidence in the system, and it is essential for individuals to believe in the resilience of the nation and its ability to conduct safe and secure elections (35m22s).
• State and local election officials are the trusted sources for information, and voters can find secure information on websites, including vote.gov (35m45s).

Trump's Voting Day Activities and Comments

• Former President Donald Trump has cast his vote in Palm Beach, Florida, and commented on the election, stating that it seems like people have shown up in force (36m5s).
• Former President Trump expressed his frustration with the US election process, stating that it should be over by 10:00 if paper ballots were used, which would be 8% of the cost of using machines (37m8s).
• He mentioned that France switched to paper ballots due to issues with mail-in voting and was able to count 37 million votes by 10:00 in the morning (37m56s).
• Trump stated that he is hearing it may take a long time to get the results in certain states, despite being up by a lot in those states (38m19s).
• He plans to have a special group of people at Mar-a-Lago and 4000-5000 people at the convention center, assuming he wins (38m37s).
• Trump mentioned that he would normally declare victory at the convention center around 10:00 or 11:00, but is unsure if that will happen this time (38m49s).
• He believes he has a substantial lead, with more Republicans voting than Democrats, but notes that the winner needs to be officially called (39m3s).
• Trump stated that he wants people to come into the country legally and wants strong borders, which he believes is the biggest issue in the campaign (39m40s).
• He also mentioned that he wants to be inclusive and allow people to come into the country, but not allow criminals, drug dealers, or terrorists (39m49s).
• Trump personally believes that the border is the number one issue, but will see how it pans out (40m25s).
• He stated that he doesn't have to tell his supporters that there will be no violence, as they are not violent people (40m44s).
• Trump plans to spend most of his time at Mar-a-Lago and will be going to the office in West Palm with Melania (41m9s).
• Former President Trump is visiting workers and mentions that he has been hearing that they are doing very well in Georgia and everywhere else, although he may regret making that statement later (41m36s).
• Trump states that he has not prepared a speech, but is able to make one on short notice, and if he wins, he knows what he's going to say (42m17s).
• Trump encourages Republicans to stay in line and vote, while Democrats can leave if they want to, and mentions that there are tremendous Republican lines (42m35s).
• Trump claims that he has no pressure whatsoever and is winning his cases, including the biggest one in Florida (43m8s).
• Trump thinks that this might be his last campaign, and if so, he would be sad but fulfilled, and is expecting a big victory (43m26s).
• Trump has already assembled a transition team, but doesn't want to talk about it until he finds out how the election goes (43m41s).
• Trump's terms for Iran are that they cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he would like them to be a successful country (44m3s).
• Trump feels confident with the Secret Service, who have stepped up their security measures, and thinks they should have done a better job in the past (44m14s).
• Trump believes that his team is incredible and has run the best campaign, but in order to make that stick, they have to win (44m59s).
• Trump is confident in his team, many of whom are the same players from his previous campaigns (45m21s).
• Trump thinks it's ridiculous to suggest that he is not confident, and recalls an experience at one of Oprah's last shows (45m40s).