Harris vs. Trump — and What’s at Stake for the World | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

The Upcoming U.S. Election and Global Trends

• The discussion focuses on the significance of the upcoming U.S. election, highlighting its impact not only on America but also on the global stage. (37s)
• There is a trend of change elections worldwide, where voters are expressing dissatisfaction with their country's direction, often voting against incumbents. This trend is evident in countries with both popular and struggling leaders. (1m15s)
• Factors contributing to voter dissatisfaction include high inflation, increased migration, economic disparities, climate challenges, geopolitical tensions, and war. These issues have created an environment where voters are unhappy with their choices. (2m5s)
• In the United States, the political landscape is marked by a high level of disinformation, division, and dysfunction, making the election particularly contentious. (2m46s)
• The unpopularity of candidates among their opponents is notably high, leading to a very close election that will be decided by a small number of voters in key swing states. (3m8s)
• There is a significant concern that many Americans are unwilling to accept the election outcome, with a belief that the process is rigged. (3m41s)
• The discussion also notes recent serious assassination attempts, including one that nearly succeeded against a former president, underscoring the tense political climate. (3m58s)
• The stakes for the upcoming election are very serious, with significant tensions and conflicts as the backdrop. (4m5s)

Candidates' Foreign Policy Approaches

• The foreign policy approaches of the candidates differ significantly, with Joe Biden having extensive experience in foreign policy from his time as vice president and in the Senate, including leading the Foreign Relations Committee. (4m45s)
• Biden's decision-making style involves making many decisions himself in the White House, with his trusted inner circle executing these decisions. (5m33s)
• Kamala Harris, if elected, would rely more on a traditional cabinet for foreign policy, with her decisions influenced by the people she appoints to key positions like State, NSA, Defense, Treasury, and Commerce. (6m16s)
• Harris would conduct regular cabinet meetings to resolve differences, playing an active role in steering conversations, which contrasts with Biden's approach. (6m31s)
• A Trump administration would see Trump making decisions on a few high-level issues in an instinctive and untransparent manner, with little input from others. (6m46s)
• Many other policy decisions under Trump would be handled by trusted individuals around him, which could include cabinet secretaries or informal advisors, as seen with Jared Kushner's role in the Middle East previously. (7m8s)
• The structure and leadership style of the administration significantly impact how policies are implemented in the U.S. government, highlighting the importance of personnel and inner circles surrounding the president. (7m39s)
• Donald Trump's decision-making process is often last-minute and influenced by recent interactions, as seen in the appointment of Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Trump tends to choose people who have recently impressed him, even if he has not known them for long. (8m6s)
• If Trump were to return to the presidency, he would likely rely on a group of trusted individuals from his previous administration, such as Robert O'Brien, who might again play a senior role, and Robert Lighthizer, who could be involved in trade. However, there would also be unexpected appointments. (8m56s)
• Potential candidates for key positions in a future Trump administration include Tom Cotton, who might lead the Department of Defense or the CIA, and Mike Pompeo, although his late endorsement of Trump could affect his chances. There is also speculation about the roles of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, despite their stated intentions to stay out. (9m30s)
• Kamala Harris has indicated that she will not begin the decision-making process for her administration's appointments until after an election victory. Her team is currently gathering information, but it is still early in the process. (10m6s)
• Key figures expected to have significant roles in a potential Harris administration include Phil Gordon, her lead foreign policy adviser, who might become National Security Adviser, and Bill Burns, who could be a candidate for Secretary of State. (10m38s)
• Other potential candidates for significant roles in a Harris administration include Senator Chris Coons and Susan Rice, with the expectation that the administration would consist of center to center-left, establishment-type figures in foreign policy and economic roles. (11m8s)
• The orientation of a Harris administration towards the world is not expected to differ dramatically from that of the Biden administration, although the specific individuals from the Biden administration may not remain. (11m42s)

The Middle East Conflict and U.S. Influence

• Foreign policy will be a central focus for the leadership in the context of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly with the involvement of Lebanon and Iran. (11m58s)
• The conflict in the Middle East has escalated significantly since October 7th, with developments including a ground invasion in Gaza and increased tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran's broader regional influence. (12m19s)
• Hamas has announced a return to suicide bombings due to their diminished capacity for organized military action, as their tunnels and weapon caches have been destroyed, and their leadership has been severely weakened. (13m20s)
• Hezbollah has expressed a desire for a ceasefire with Israel, no longer linking it to the cessation of fighting in Gaza, following the assassination of their leader and significant losses in their ranks and capabilities. (14m1s)
• Israel's military superiority has limited the ability of its adversaries to escalate the conflict, with Iran being a potential exception, though it is also facing constraints in escalating effectively against Israel. (14m44s)
• The current debate centers on how Israel will respond to Iranian attacks, with concerns about escalation primarily focused on Israeli decision-making, as Iran is also running out of options to escalate. (15m0s)
• The influence of potential leaders on Israeli decision-making is a key question, as it remains uncertain how either candidate could impact the situation or offer solutions. (15m51s)
• The United States' influence over its allies, such as Israel, is often overstated, as seen in the Middle East where the Israeli government does not always align with U.S. preferences, even if the U.S. were willing to exert leverage. (16m12s)
• In comparison, Ukraine and Taiwan are more reliant on U.S. support, yet they also make independent decisions that the U.S. might not endorse, highlighting the limits of American influence. (16m41s)
• President Biden has been reluctant to impose consequences on Israel for ignoring U.S. warnings, and has not tested the extent of American influence by threatening to withdraw military support. (17m43s)
• If the U.S. were to reconsider its military support, there might be a slight increase in Israeli consultation with the U.S. on military decisions, although it is uncertain if this would significantly alter Israel's actions, given the strong domestic support for their current military strategies. (18m45s)
• The U.S. has lost influence with the global South, including countries in Southeast Asia, due to perceptions of complicity in Israeli actions in Gaza and insufficient humanitarian aid, suggesting that a U.S. policy more aligned with European and Gulf allies might gain broader international support. (19m41s)

Candidates' Approaches to Russia and Ukraine

• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have differing approaches to the Middle East, particularly regarding Israel and Palestine. Harris is expected to maintain strong support for Israel while also advocating for increased humanitarian aid to Palestinians and working closely with the United Nations and American allies. In contrast, Trump no longer supports a two-state solution and has indicated support for Israel potentially striking Iran's nuclear facilities. (20m18s)
• The approaches of Harris and Trump towards Russia are also expected to differ. Trump has denied claims of offering COVID-19 tests to Putin, although the Kremlin confirmed the tests. Despite Trump's seemingly amicable interactions with Putin, such as during the Helsinki Summit, his administration provided Ukraine with Javelin missiles and imposed stricter sanctions on Russia compared to the Obama administration. Trump also opposed Germany's Nord Stream pipeline project, which he viewed as compromising energy security. (22m10s)
• There is a discussion about the importance of maintaining communication with adversaries in areas that do not compromise national security, which is seen as a sensible leadership approach. (24m42s)
• Concerns are raised about Donald Trump's alleged regular contact with Vladimir Putin since leaving the presidency, while reportedly avoiding communication with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky until pressured for a meeting at the United Nations. (25m0s)
• There is skepticism about Trump's claim that he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in a short time, with a suggestion that he might exaggerate such statements. (25m32s)
• During Trump's administration, he was reluctant to start new wars and avoided using military force, even when pressured by allies like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia against Iran. (26m10s)
• Trump is portrayed as wanting to be seen as the person who ended the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intending to pressure both sides into a ceasefire by threatening to cut U.S. support to Ukraine and imposing tougher sanctions on Russia. (26m49s)
• If Ukraine does not agree to a ceasefire, Trump would threaten to withdraw U.S. support, which could divide European countries, with some like Hungary's Orban potentially supporting Trump, while others like Poland and the Baltic states would oppose. (27m11s)
• Trump would also pressure Russia by threatening to impose severe sanctions, including stopping oil exports to India and targeting Chinese banks facilitating Russian transactions, which could have significant global economic impacts and further divide Europe from the United States. (27m40s)
• The discussion explores the strategic decisions facing leaders like Zelensky and Putin, particularly in the context of potential negotiations and the implications of their responses. (28m22s)
• Trump is unlikely to coordinate with European allies in the same multilateral manner as Biden has done with his Russia-Ukraine policy, which has involved collective actions such as economic sanctions and military support through NATO. (28m40s)
• Trump is more inclined to engage directly with Russia and Ukraine, potentially leaving allies to learn about developments through briefings or media, which presents challenges for policy execution. (29m21s)
• In contrast, Harris would adopt a multilateral approach, ensuring alignment with European allies and requiring Ukrainian agreement before engaging with Russia. Her structural approach would differ significantly from Trump's. (29m37s)
• Harris's policy intention would focus on ending the war, even if it means Ukraine does not regain all its territory. She believes Ukraine should receive hard security guarantees, such as NATO membership, in exchange for accepting a frozen conflict. (30m8s)
• The proposal suggests that if Ukraine accepts a frozen conflict with NATO membership, it would deter further Russian aggression, as any additional moves by Russia would involve conflict with NATO. (30m43s)
• Putin is unlikely to accept Ukraine's NATO membership, but if Ukraine and NATO agree, it could strengthen the global position against Russia and gain support from countries in the global South that desire an end to the war. (31m13s)
• The policy outcomes that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would find acceptable regarding Ukraine are closer than expected, but their methods to achieve these outcomes differ significantly, leading to varied potential for success and consequences of failure. (32m4s)

Climate Change and Energy Policies

• Climate change is recognized as an immediate and escalating threat, with recent events like storms in Florida and North Carolina highlighting its impact. (32m42s)
• Young people are seen as pivotal in driving change on climate issues, as they will increasingly influence consumer behavior and political outcomes. (33m6s)
• Despite widespread acceptance of climate change by 193 countries, the situation is worsening due to existing environmental damage. (33m52s)
• A Harris administration is expected to focus on green energy and sustainable transitions, while Trump is likely to emphasize fossil fuels, including oil, gas, and coal, and provide greater access to industry CEOs. (34m26s)
• Kamala Harris has previously walked back her opposition to fracking, and under the current administration, the U.S. is producing more oil than ever before, surpassing countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia. (35m0s)
• Under a Trump administration, there would likely be easier permitting for drilling and a more navigable regulatory environment for infrastructure development. (35m40s)
• The US inflation reduction act is expected to create jobs in red states, with Texas becoming an energy superpower in oil, gas, solar, and wind energy, surpassing California in post-carbon energy production (36m3s).
• Both US administrations are likely to move faster to permit nuclear energy, adopting an "all of the above" policy, similar to China's approach, which has been investing heavily in renewable energy for 20 years (36m32s).
• China has become a world leader in global renewable energy, with the US lagging behind, but recognizing the need to transition to post-carbon energy (37m4s).
• The US and China will be the two superpowers of energy, with the US transitioning from carbon energy and China leading in post-carbon energy, while the rest of the world will be affected by climate change and seeking solutions (37m16s).
• The gap between the US, China, and the global South will grow, as the US solution to invest in new technology and make it affordable may not be enough for countries seeking reparations for the impact of climate change (37m42s).
• The idea of reparations is not being taken seriously by either US presidential candidate, with even progressive politicians like AOC focusing on American exceptionalism rather than a global approach (38m52s).

Immigration Policies and Global Comparisons

• The US political spectrum is relatively narrow from a global perspective, and Americans need to be more aware of this when considering global issues like climate change and immigration (39m11s).
• Immigration is a significant issue for both US presidential candidates, with more alignment between Harris and Trump on the topic, but it is unclear who is thinking smartly about it (39m44s).
• In Europe, there are coordinated efforts to manage immigration policy, led by Ursula von der Leyen, with support from leaders like Olaf Scholz, Giorgia Meloni, and Emmanuel Macron. Even Viktor Orban of Hungary, despite disagreements, acknowledges that the EU's current migration policies reflect issues he raised years ago. (39m50s)
• In the United States, some cities that previously declared themselves as sanctuary cities are now facing challenges as they deal with large numbers of immigrants. These cities, often not located on the border, are becoming more cautious and hardline on illegal immigration due to the financial and logistical burdens. (40m25s)
• If Kamala Harris were to become president, it is expected that she would continue the tougher immigration policies implemented by Joe Biden, which are similar to those under Donald Trump. The main difference lies in the rhetoric, with Trump using more inflammatory language that has increased hatred and violence against immigrants. (41m8s)
• Trump's immigration policy proposals include the deportation of 11 million illegal migrants, which is considered unfeasible due to lack of infrastructure. Even partial implementation could significantly impact labor markets and inflation in the U.S. (42m35s)
• Market participants are comparing Harris and Trump on issues like tariffs, labor rates, and immigration. Both candidates are expected to pursue expansionary fiscal policies, though with different focuses. (43m3s)

Fiscal Policies and Economic Outlook

• There is a discussion on the potential fiscal policies of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump is expected to extend tax cuts and reduce corporate tax rates to stimulate growth, but this may not cover expenditures, especially with higher interest rates and increased defense spending. (43m50s)
• Kamala Harris's policies are anticipated to be less growth-oriented for the private sector, focusing on small and medium enterprises and entrepreneurship. She would likely increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations, but expanded social programs would offset the additional revenue. Both leaders would pursue expansionary fiscal policies. (44m32s)
• The strength of the U.S. dollar is not expected to be immediately affected by these policies, as it is a long-term issue influenced by the relative weakness of other global economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and China. (45m12s)
• There is a critique of U.S. politics for focusing on short-term tactics rather than addressing long-term strategic challenges, with climate change and fiscal issues highlighted as major concerns. (45m30s)

Combating Misinformation and Corporate Responsibility

• The problem of misinformation, driven by profit-motivated algorithms, is discussed as a significant issue affecting informed voting. The politicization of topics like weather and the impact of misinformation on public safety during events like hurricanes and pandemics are noted. (45m53s)
• It is suggested that bots should not have free speech rights, emphasizing that free speech is a right for human beings, not automated entities. (47m29s)
• Social media platforms should require users to be verified as human beings to exist and be promoted algorithmically, while AI-related content should not be verified and can only be promoted by a human being who knows it's AI-driven content (48m0s).
• Corporate leadership needs to take more responsibility for civic relations and democracy, and regulation is necessary to ensure that businesses do not actively erode democracy without facing consequences (48m36s).
• Companies that emit pollution should have to pay for it, and similarly, platforms that spread disinformation should bear the costs of the negative externalities they create (49m28s).
• The idea of reparations is not just about past actions, but also about companies that are currently making money while not paying for the costs they impose on citizens and young people (50m11s).

Post-Election Violence and Instability

• The chances of experiencing violence after the election are uncertain, but it's unlikely to be on the same scale as the January 6 incident, as Washington D.C. will likely be locked down (50m47s).
• There is a risk of violence, particularly from supporters of former President Trump who believe he has been unfairly targeted and may feel motivated to take action (51m30s).
• The assassination attempts on former President Trump, including one that was close to succeeding, are a concern and may indicate a higher risk of violence from his supporters (51m12s).
• There is a concern about potential violent riots across the country, involving armed citizens and supporters of Trump within the military and police forces, which could be more severe than any unrest since the Vietnam era. (51m45s)
• The normalization of a flawed electoral process is highlighted, with expectations of districts refusing to certify election results, numerous court cases, and voter intimidation in certain areas. (52m35s)
• After the election, there is an anticipated widespread disbelief in the legitimacy of the results, with many people likely to consider the election rigged, leading to a dangerous situation. (53m9s)
• While there is not an expectation of civil war or dictatorship, there is a concern about a period of profound unrest that the current U.S. population is unprepared for. (53m26s)

Conclusion: The Importance of Voting

• The importance of voting is emphasized, with a personal note of excitement from an individual voting for the first time as an American citizen. (53m44s)