Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!

Bestie intros! (0s)

• A dinner gathering took place last week where Sax and others got heavily intoxicated, with Sax being described as a "drunk bear" (16s).
• The lady of the manor has allowed for a future stay at Sax's house, where towels and soap will be refreshed (26s).
• Sax has towels with a big "S" on them, as well as "Maga" robes, which are humorous to some (45s).
• The group is planning an "All-In Holiday Spectacular" on December 7th at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco, with tickets available at allin.com/events (1m40s).
• An Election Night Live stream is scheduled for November 5th at 7 p.m. Pacific Time, featuring guests and available on the group's YouTube channel (1m50s).
• The group is approaching 700,000 subscribers and encourages viewers to subscribe, comment, and join the live stream (2m3s).
• Helth, who is banned by Chamath, may be given a second chance to appear on the show, but will be on a tight leash (2m13s).
• The holiday party will cost around $1 million, with around $300,000 spent on the previous party, and is not intended to be profitable, but rather a fun event (2m47s).
• In college, one of the hosts had a DJ setup and performed live electronic music (3m17s).
• Athena has bought a bundle of VIP tickets to the holiday party and is giving them to their top customers and employees as a holiday party in San Francisco (3m37s).
• Startups can buy a pack of tickets to the holiday party and use it as their own holiday party (3m57s).
• A well-known DJ is being considered to perform at the holiday party, and Degenerate Gambler is also being considered, but may lose money at a poker game (4m13s).
• Sax has a poker building at his house that has been used only a few times, and may host a poker game after the party (4m41s).

US Real GDP growth comes in at 2.8%, but there are underlying issues (4m50s)

• The US GDP grew 2.88% in Q3, adjusted for inflation, which is considered a healthy growth rate, especially compared to other Western countries such as Japan, Australia, Germany, and Canada, which have lower growth rates (5m4s).
• The 2-3% growth rate is considered the sweet spot for mature economies, as it indicates positive growth without overheating, which occurred in 2021 (5m29s).
• The US GDP growth was 30 basis points below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 3.1%, and inflation is at 2.4%, close to the 2% target, with unemployment at 4.1%, near historic lows (5m43s).
• The 10-year Treasury is at 4.3%, and the stock market is at an all-time high, but the federal debt is a concern, with $35 trillion in debt and $1 trillion in annual interest payments (6m5s).
• The number of federal government employees has reached 3 million, which is about 1% of the country, and when including state and local government employees, the total number of people working for the government is almost 25 million (6m28s).
• As Election Day approaches, there are concerns about cutting spending and the potential impact on the economy, with some believing that the economy may overheat or experience a soft landing (6m47s).
• The market is indicating that higher rates are expected for longer, with 10-year treasuries at 4.3%, which is a turnaround from the expected rate cuts 90 days ago (7m13s).
• Both Trump and Biden have made fiscal proposals that would add trillions of dollars to the debt and increase deficit spending, but it is unlikely that they will be able to implement all of their policies (8m9s).
• There is talk about improving government efficiency, with Elon Musk suggesting that there could be $2 trillion in savings, but the chances of meaningful changes are uncertain (8m47s).
• The current economic trend may be misleading, as the GDP print suggests things are "pretty okay," but when government consumption is factored out, a different picture emerges, showing that private industry has been stagnant over the last two and a half years under the Biden Administration (9m31s).
• The economic gains during this period have largely been driven by government consumption, indicating a low-key recession, as companies across various sectors, including CPG and tech companies like Dropbox, have reported softening demand and laid off staff (10m17s).
• Normalizing the view of the economy by accounting for government spending reveals that the economy is flat and not growing, with many people experiencing contraction (11m4s).
• The amount of government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased significantly over the years, with the current level being around 20%, which is a notable trend (11m36s).
• The net outlays chart shows a flat and stalling economy, but it's essential to consider the difference between net outlays and total gross government spending, which includes quantitative easing (QE) (11m49s).
• A significant portion of the current quarter's GDP, around 85%, was induced by the government, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the economic growth (12m14s).
• The GDP report may not be helpful for the Biden-Harris administration in the upcoming election, as the caveat about government spending undermines the positive statistics (12m48s).
• Historical context suggests that the economy can be a crucial factor in elections, as seen in the 1992 presidential election between Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, where Clinton's message "it's the economy, stupid" resonated with voters (13m2s).
• The 1992 US presidential election is cited as an example where a positive GDP report did not impact the election outcome, as voters' impressions of the economy had already solidified by the final week of the campaign (13m19s).
• The current economy's growth is not expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming election, as voters' perceptions are more influenced by their experience of inflation over the last four years (13m57s).
• The cost of living has increased significantly over the last four years, and voters are feeling the effects, which is expected to play into their perceptions of the economy (14m9s).
• Interest rates are a concern, as the long-term rates, such as the 10-year treasury, have not decreased despite the Federal Reserve cutting short-term rates by 50 basis points (14m35s).
• The 10-year treasury rate has actually increased to around 4.3%, which is attributed to the government deficit and debt, causing buyers to leave the market for treasuries (14m51s).
• The prime rate has reached 8%, making it more expensive for people to buy houses and take out mortgages, which could have a detrimental effect on the economy (15m29s).
• The high interest rates and debt service costs are expected to negatively impact the economy, making it difficult for people to afford houses and other expenses (16m3s).
• The government's influence on the economy is seen as a distortion, making it challenging to get an accurate read on the economy's performance (16m17s).
• The capital markets may eventually react to the government's actions and the economy's instability, leading to a need to clean up the balance sheet aggressively (16m41s).
• The importance of interest rates is highlighted, as they drive the value of bonds, and changes in rates can impact the value of existing bonds (16m51s).
• Many commercial banks in the United States have significant unrealized losses on their balance sheets due to loans and bonds that are now underwater, with values below their book value, resulting in a real crisis with trillions of dollars in unrealized losses (17m19s).
• Warren Buffett warned about this issue publicly last year and has been selling off his holdings in Bank of America (BFA), almost completely exiting his position (18m0s).
• There is talk of a looming credit crisis among large charter holding banks due to this issue, with a potential huge credit crisis brewing in the financial community (18m34s).
• The relationship between the Federal Reserve (FED) and prime rates is typically 3%, but the FED's rate cuts have not had the expected impact on long-term rates, which are set by the market (18m55s).
• The market now requires a higher rate of interest to accept the risk of investing in long-term bonds, such as the 10-year treasury, due to expectations of inflation and the time value of money (19m26s).
• The FED's inability to impact long-term rates has significant implications for the real economy, including the housing market, where rising interest rates could double monthly mortgage payments and reduce spending power (20m15s).
• The commercial real estate market is also affected, with many buildings having debt that needs to be refinanced, and the typical commercial loan being 5-7 years, which could lead to increased debt costs and reduced spending power (20m50s).
• In the next few years, a significant amount of debt will need to be refinanced, and if refinanced at twice the interest cost, many buildings may become "underwater" with no equity value, as their owners are currently hoping rates will go back down to avoid this issue (21m5s).
• Commercial banks, particularly regional banks, own a lot of this debt and have not had to mark it to market, hoping the problem will be resolved before a default occurs (21m45s).
• As interest rates climb, the cost to borrow for the federal government also increases, with nearly $10 trillion of debt needing to be reissued in the next year at a higher rate, leading to a faster climb in annual expenses for interest payments (22m1s).
• This creates a compounding problem where more debt is issued to pay for interest on existing debt, which can lead to a catastrophic economic collapse if not addressed through reduced federal spending (22m26s).
• The US debt-to-GDP ratio has reached a level where it becomes a compounding problem, and the markets are warning that drastic action is needed to reduce spending and deficit levels to address payment obligations on outstanding debt (22m54s).
• The US dollar's creditworthiness is being challenged, and the stability of the United States is threatened by the rising debt and the emergence of alternative economies, such as the BRICS nations, which may offer an alternative to the US dollar (23m8s).
• If interest rates remain at their current level, a significant deleveraging is expected, as interest payments become unsustainable, and the alternative is for the Fed to monetize the debt, leading to inflation (23m45s).

Google earnings: YouTube and Cloud post huge quarters, would they have survived outside of Google? (28m26s)

• Google had a successful quarter, beating top and bottom line expectations, with total revenue of $88.3 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and operating income up 34% year-over-year (28m27s).
• The company's search revenue was $49 billion, and YouTube had a tremendous quarter with ad revenue of $8.9 billion, up 12%, and total revenue surpassing $50 billion over the past year (29m22s).
• YouTube's premium paid products, such as YouTube TV and YouTube Premium, generated around $15 billion in revenue, with a 70/30 split between ad revenue and premium products (29m51s).
• Google Cloud had a blowout quarter, with revenue of $11.4 billion, up 35% annually, and operating profit of $1.9 billion (30m4s).
• There are seven quasi-monopolies in the world, all American, and allowing them to flourish or breaking them up could have different consequences for the economy (30m19s).
• Breaking up these companies could result in a higher breakup value for shareholders, but it could also mean losing the ability for American companies to build new businesses using cash flows from their existing businesses (31m1s).
• Google's YouTube and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) required significant investment over many years, and breaking them up could mean they wouldn't have been able to build those businesses without the profits from search and ads (31m51s).
• The discussion revolves around the concept of American dynamism and the role of big companies in driving innovation and growth, with the argument that these companies have been successful due to the leadership of amazing founders who have reinvested profits into building new businesses (33m9s).
• The idea is put forth that if these big companies were broken up, people would still make money, and the capital markets would fill in the gaps, as investors are smart and can see the economic rationale for having multiple players in a market (34m37s).
• The example of Google and YouTube is used to illustrate this point, with the suggestion that if Google did not own YouTube, the latter would have still been funded and would have been fine, as people are smart enough to understand when there is potential to make money (33m54s).
• The concept of monopolies is also discussed, with the argument that the era of monopolies building new monopolies is over, and that big businesses are there to eventually grow at GDP, allowing them to be disrupted by small companies (35m1s).
• Historical examples of monopolies being broken up in the US, such as the East West India company, the railroads, AT&T, and Standard Oil, are cited to illustrate the idea that breaking up monopolies is not necessarily what enables other companies to fill the gaps, but rather the conditions that allow for it (35m20s).

Sacks's idea to auction off public spectrum licenses of major broadcast networks (35m34s)

• A tweet by Saks about taking back licenses for main broadcast channels was discussed, with the idea that these licenses could be auctioned off to the highest bidder, potentially leading to better outcomes for individual shareholders and the US as a whole (35m34s).
• The history of broadcast licensing in the US was explained, dating back to the early 20th century when three major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, and NBC) were given free licenses to use public spectrum in exchange for serving the public interest and being fair (36m44s).
• The original requirements for broadcast networks were established in a pre-cable era when there were only a few ways to access information, but now with the advent of cable, the internet, and social media, there are many ways to access information, making the old regulations less relevant (37m36s).
• The idea of auctioning off the broadcast spectrum to the highest bidder was proposed, with the potential to pay down the national debt and allow the market to determine the most valuable use of the spectrum (38m34s).
• The broadcast spectrum is highly valuable due to its ability to easily penetrate walls, making it suitable for various applications such as GPS and TV broadcasting (39m11s).
• An auction of the broadcast spectrum was mentioned, which has been gradually taking place over the past 15 years, but the most valuable part of the public spectrum is still up for discussion (39m0s).
• The current spectrum allocation system is outdated, with broadcast networks like ABC, CBS, and NBC holding valuable spectrum that could be used for innovation in next-generation wireless apps, but they are not willing to give it up as they get it for free from the FCC in exchange for meeting certain requirements (39m43s).
• The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is a powerful lobby that represents local stations and has a significant influence on the allocation of spectrum, which is why the current model has not changed despite being obsolete (40m20s).
• The FCC grants local networks a free license to use the spectrum every six years, which is then renewed, but this model does not make sense in today's digital age (40m45s).
• The FCC has auctioned off spectrum before, but not the valuable spectrum currently being used by broadcast networks, which is being used in a certain way due to legacy reasons dating back 100 years (41m11s).
• The current system is holding back innovation in wireless technology, and speeding up the auction process could unleash new innovations in next-generation wireless apps (39m59s).

How the media became one of the least trusted institutions in the US (41m27s)

• Research has been conducted on Legacy Media and Trust in Media, with reports indicating that confidence in institutions is declining, including trust in the military, with Gallup being one of the organizations tracking this trend (41m28s).
• According to a Gallup poll, trust in television news has fluctuated, going from 16% in 2021 to 11% in 2022 and back up to 14% in 2023, but remains amongst the lowest in terms of trust, with 40% of Americans having no trust in media at all (42m8s).
• The Gallup poll also breaks down trust in mass media by party, with 58% of Democrats, 29% of Independents, and 11% of Republicans expressing confidence in mass media (42m31s).
• The transition of media institutions has led to a shift away from providing data and information, as it has become commoditized and widely available through the internet, forcing media companies to become content businesses and focus on providing emotive content to drive clicks and sell ads (43m9s).
• This shift has created an iterative feedback system where media companies prioritize content that evokes emotions and confirms readers' biases, rather than providing objective truth and fact-finding information (43m42s).
• As a result, people have become disillusioned with Legacy Media, assuming it still provides objective truth, when in fact it has become emotive content, and this trend is unlikely to shift, even with attempts like Jeff Bezos' effort to return The Washington Post to being a fact-finding organization (44m51s).
• People are moving away from traditional news sources and instead consuming information directly from government websites, company websites, and other unbiased sources, as well as authentic conversations through podcasts and social media (45m22s).
• The commentary and conversations on podcasts feel authentic and allow listeners to separate signal from noise and make their own decisions about what they find to be true and factual (45m39s).
• Podcasts are expected to play a huge role in the 2024 election, similar to how social media broke through in 2016, allowing unorthodox candidates to get their message out directly to consumers (46m16s).
• The transition from traditional media to direct-to-consumer communication through Twitter, podcasts, and social media is underway, with podcasts and social media influencers becoming the tip of the spear in defining candidates (46m47s).
• Joe Rogan's podcast has gained significant attention, with his interview with Donald Trump reaching over 100 million views, despite being difficult to find through Google or YouTube searches (47m11s).
• The reach and format of podcasts make them a highly informative platform for viewers, allowing candidates to expound on their views and be asked questions in a long-form, unscripted environment (48m2s).
• Podcasts have been an advantage for Donald Trump, allowing him to showcase his knowledge of policy issues and his personality, which differs from the portrayal by the legacy media (48m39s).
• The legacy media has been trying to portray Trump as an extreme figure, but podcasts have provided a platform for him to present himself in a more nuanced way (48m52s).
• Trump's appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast has been beneficial for him, as it allows him to showcase his personality and policy knowledge in a long-form conversation, which contrasts with the media's portrayal of him (49m3s).
• Kamala Harris has not been willing to appear on Rogan's podcast on his terms, which involves a three-hour conversation in his studio, and has instead opted for shorter, more controlled interviews (49m20s).
• Trump's biggest challenge in the election is to get people comfortable with the idea of a second Trump term, and his appearances on podcasts, including Rogan's, have helped him achieve this (49m55s).
• Before appearing on Rogan's podcast, there was a sense of anxiety about having enough interesting things to say for three hours, but Rogan's ability to move the conversation along makes the time pass quickly (50m26s).
• Kamala Harris should consider appearing on Rogan's podcast to allow the American people to see her true self and make an informed decision about her candidacy (51m16s).
• Harris has mostly avoided media interviews and podcasts that might be perceived as adversarial, instead opting for friendlier outlets (51m43s).
• Trump initially appeared on friendly podcasts and media outlets, including Fox News, before branching out to other platforms (52m10s).
• The podcast was not the first to interview Trump, with another podcast, "Nek Boys," being the first, and the current podcast being the second (52m31s).
• The individual in question took a risk that ultimately worked out for him, and he has continued to make efforts since then (52m45s).
• The podcast has made a consistent effort to feature guests from all sides, with the exception of one person, and has successfully had various credible Republicans and Independents on the show (52m58s).
• Notable guests on the podcast include RFK, Dean Phillips, and V, with the podcast being the first to feature some of these individuals (53m15s).
• The individual looked into the search issue, but struggled to recall the correct name, mistakenly referring to it as "VI" instead of the correct name (53m30s).

Why Joe Rogan's interview with Trump was not appearing in YouTube search results (53m35s)

• There were complaints that YouTube might have been hiding a video of an interview between Joe Rogan and Donald Trump, which didn't make sense to people, prompting an investigation into how search algorithms work (53m36s).
• Search algorithms are designed to increase advertising dollars, and their primary goal is to make money, which is why non-monetized content, such as Joe Rogan's full episodes, may not rank high in search results (54m15s).
• Joe Rogan doesn't monetize his search, and clips from his episodes, which do make money for YouTube, often flood the search results, beating out the main episodes (54m45s).
• This issue is not unique to Joe Rogan, as it also happens to other podcasts, including "My Other Podcast" and "All In", when people clip their episodes and use keyword stuffing to beat the algorithm (55m5s).
• The algorithm prioritizes content that generates more engagement, such as clips, which are like sports highlights, over non-monetized content (55m32s).
• A search experiment was conducted on various search engines, including Bing, DuckDuckGo, Brave, and Google, which showed that clips consistently outrank main episodes (54m4s).
• The interview between Joe Rogan and Donald Trump had over 100 million views and 34 million views at the time it was noticed that it couldn't be found on YouTube, making it surprising that the search algorithm couldn't find it (56m11s).
• When searching for the interview on YouTube, it was only possible to find clips, and not the full episode, even when using specific search terms like "Trump Rogan full interview podcast" (56m38s).
• The episode was suppressed in YouTube search, but a similar search on the main Google search engine yielded an article from the Arizona Republic as the number one result, which criticized the interview (56m49s).
• A controversy surrounding Google search results for the Trump-Rogan interview is discussed, with some claiming that the results are biased against Trump and in favor of Kamala Harris, but this is disputed as a misunderstanding of how search engines work, with news results typically appearing first, followed by organic results (57m17s).
• The search results for the Trump-Rogan interview on YouTube, Bing, and Google are compared, showing that news outlets such as Fox News, AP, and the New York Post are featured prominently, with some right-leaning and some center-leaning sources represented (57m55s).
• It is suggested that the controversy may have been caused by a large number of people flagging the video as inappropriate, which can lead to it being temporarily hidden from search results while it is investigated, rather than overt action by Google (59m31s).
• Google is aware of claims of bias and is sensitive to them, as are other companies such as Facebook and CNN (1h0m29s).
• The incident highlights the potential for abuse of the flagging system, where a large number of people can flag a video as inappropriate in an attempt to suppress its visibility (59m48s).
• Sundar is sensitive to the fact that people think media outlets are biased and have information empires, which can lead to a loss of trust, customers, and revenue, as seen with CNN. (1h0m48s)
• CNN has been having Trump supporters and right-wing commentators on their shows, changing the nature of their reporting to be more middle-ground compared to MSNBC or Fox. (1h1m2s)
• Google search results have been biased when searching for information on Trump versus Harris, with the first carousel often being about Kamala Harris and the first carousel about Trump being negative stories. (1h1m24s)
• A search result from months ago showed that searching for Donald Trump yielded a carousel about Kamala Harris, and the first carousel about Trump was negative stories, including one about Project 2025, a Democratic talking point. (1h1m36s)
• The bias in Google search results may be due to the fact that many media outlets are negative about Trump and positive about Harris, affecting the ratio of positive to negative news. (1h2m30s)
• The Arizona Republic ended up being the first choice when searching for "Rogan Trump", which doesn't make sense given their page rank and lack of links from other publications. (1h2m36s)
• After Trump went on the Andrew Schulz podcast, the number one result for searching for the podcast host was an article from The New Republic, which mischaracterized the podcast hosts as laughing at Trump instead of with him. (1h3m1s)
• The New Republic is not an objective source, and Google's page rank should not have elevated their article to the top result, indicating bias in Google's search results. (1h3m21s)
• Google has given ridiculous results, often finding obscure publications and articles with no basis in truth to elevate to the top, which seems like an attempt to find the most negative article on Trump. (1h3m35s)
• The majority of journalists at publications today are left-leaning, with only 3 or 4% being right-leaning, and most right-leaning publications are opinion-based, such as Fox. (1h4m27s)
• This creates a lack of representation for Republicans in the index, which is seen as an opportunity for them to create or take over more publications. (1h4m45s)
• Google's search results for the Joe Rogan Trump interview were criticized for surfacing a local Arizona publication, the Arizona Republic, at the top, followed by the New York Times, and then other left-leaning publications. (1h5m4s)
• The search results were seen as biased, with publications calling Trump "shady" and a "predator", highlighting the need for a more balanced representation of news sources. (1h5m28s)
• It was suggested that someone from Google be invited to discuss how the algorithm works and address concerns of bias and manual intervention in the search results. (1h5m40s)
• There is a perception of bias at Google that employees are trying to address internally, and they want to give them a chance to discuss it openly. (1h6m20s)
• A counterpoint was made by searching for Donald Trump on Bing, which yielded mostly left-leaning publications, supporting the point that the entire corpus of news reportage is 95% left-leaning. (1h6m46s)
• This highlights the need for Google to manually adjust the search results to represent the 5% of right-leaning publications more equally, despite the corpus being predominantly left-leaning. (1h7m19s)
• Employee donations to parties from tech companies show a significant bias, with 90% or more going to Democrats, except for Uber, which has 18% of its donations going to Democrats, which may explain the bias in Google search results (1h7m40s).
• The discussion is moving on to the final segment, which will be about the election (1h7m57s).

Final pre-election segment: how it's tracking, election integrity, voter fraud stats (1h8m4s)

• The upcoming US presidential election is expected to be a close contest, with some polls indicating a slight lead for Donald Trump, while others show a toss-up between Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris (1h8m6s).
• Prediction markets currently favor Trump with a nearly two-to-one advantage, and polling data shows Trump leading narrowly in swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (1h9m3s).
• In Pennsylvania, early voting trends are favoring Republicans by around 500,000 votes compared to the previous election, although it's unclear whether this is due to increased voter turnout or voters casting their ballots early instead of on Election Day (1h9m41s).
• Polling data for voters who plan to cast their ballots on Election Day in Pennsylvania shows Trump leading by around 18 points, which is roughly double the margin he needs to win the state (1h10m14s).
• Despite these trends, the outcome of the election is still uncertain, and it's possible that the results could be disputed regardless of who wins (1h11m29s).
• There are concerns about the potential for election meddling and the spread of misinformation, with some anecdotal reports of irregularities in the voting process being amplified on social media and by those involved in the election (1h11m0s).
• The rhetoric surrounding these issues could potentially undermine trust in the election results and create uncertainty about the legitimacy of the outcome (1h11m30s).
• The US lacks a uniform voting system, with each state having its own rules, which can lead to confusion and disputes over the legitimacy of the election results (1h11m47s).
• Early voting data shows a significant number of Republican voters participating, which is unusual as Democrats typically dominate early voting processes (1h12m35s).
• In swing states, early voting can create a "firewall" that can impact the outcome of the election, and some states are seeing a shift in favor of Republicans (1h12m59s).
• Nevada is now considered to be leaning towards the Republicans due to early voting, with around 60% of total votes already cast and a clear Republican lead (1h13m16s).
• A decisive victory in the election is hoped for, regardless of the winner, to help deescalate tensions and allow the country to move forward (1h12m14s).
• Early voting is seen as a convenient option for voters, allowing them to cast their ballots over a period of time rather than just one day (1h13m48s).
• However, concerns are raised about the lack of voter ID requirements in some states, which can lead to potential voter fraud (1h14m27s).
• Some states allow voters to register and cast ballots without proof of citizenship, which is seen as a major issue (1h14m48s).
• A proposal is made for a federal bill to set a minimum standard for voter integrity in federal elections, while allowing states to maintain their own rules for local elections (1h15m13s).
• In the United States, the president is not directly elected by the people, but rather by the Electoral College, where each state sends electors to vote for the president, with the number of electors based on the state's population (1h15m36s).
• The Constitution allows states to run their own elections, but there should be a minimum standard for voter integrity, including voter ID and proof of citizenship to register (1h16m45s).
• Research by Hans von Spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation found 1,600 cases of election fraud in 40 years, averaging about 40 cases per year, with 23 cases in 2020, none of which were in Georgia (1h17m15s).
• The Heritage Foundation's database on election fraud is crowdsourced and provides transparency, with cases including individuals voting twice, such as Randy Allen Jumper (1h17m42s).
• According to the Brennan Center, the rate of voter fraud is statistically impossible to swing a presidential election, with a rate of 0.003% to 0.0025%, making it more likely to be struck by lightning (1h18m11s).
• In the 2020 presidential election, 158 million people voted, and estimates suggest 160 million will vote in the next election, with swing states being a concern for potential election fraud (1h18m27s).
• To swing an election in a state like Georgia, which has voter ID laws, would require a significant number of fraudulent ballots, such as the 11,780 votes mentioned in a phone call between Trump and Brad Raffensberger (1h18m49s).
• Voter ID laws are already in place in 35 out of 50 states, with the number expected to increase to 40 after the election, as many people believe it is necessary to ensure the integrity of the voting process (1h19m19s).
• Georgia has a robust system in place, requiring voters to have ID to vote in person, and watermarking ballots to prevent tampering, making it difficult for someone to fake 12,000 ballots and IDs (1h19m26s).
• In contrast, California has passed a law that prohibits checking voter ID, which is seen as benefiting Democrats and is based on the assumption that minorities may not have IDs, a notion that is considered racist and condescending (1h19m53s).
• The justification for rejecting voter ID laws is seen as lacking, and it is argued that having an ID is a normal requirement for many aspects of life, such as employment, air travel, and buying beer (1h21m42s).
• The law in California is considered particularly egregious, as it makes it illegal for someone to ask for ID at a polling place, even if a voter claims to have lost their ballot (1h21m6s).
• The requirement for employers to verify an employee's eligibility to work in the US is seen as a precedent for requiring ID for voting, as it is a way to ensure that the person casting a ballot is who they claim to be (1h21m21s).
• The argument that certain communities may not have ID and would be disenfranchised by voter ID laws is seen as insulting to minority groups, implying that they are unable to obtain ID (1h22m51s).
• California's lack of voter ID requirements makes it easier to engage in cheating, as IDs are required for other important activities such as flying, and a "do not vote list" should be implemented to prevent non-citizens from voting (1h22m56s).
• The idea that cheating can swing an election is statistically unlikely, as even a moderate amount of cheating would not be enough to change the outcome, and the smallest margin of victory in a presidential election was 11,779 votes (1h24m6s).
• The state of Georgia has voter ID laws and integrity, but California allows ballot harvesting and has eliminated voter ID, making it more susceptible to cheating (1h24m38s).
• Cheating is not impossible, but it is manageable, and the lack of voter ID laws in some states makes it easier for cheating to occur (1h25m20s).
• Implementing voter ID laws would add trust to the system, and providing receipts for votes would reduce fraud and increase confidence in the voting process (1h25m48s).
• The use of receipts would also reduce the likelihood of people believing their vote was changed after they left the polling station, and would provide a paper trail in case of disputes (1h26m1s).
• The example of the "hanging chads" case in Florida highlights the importance of having a clear and reliable voting system, and the use of receipts would help to prevent similar disputes in the future (1h26m21s).