Nvidia Rises, Silicon Valley Faces Election Divide | Bloomberg Technology

News and Market Updates

• Nvidia is being added to the Dow Jones at the expense of Intel, driving its stock price higher and leapfrogging Apple in terms of market capital, with a current market capitalization that surpasses Apple's (1m31s).
• The US presidential election is nearing, with both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris making their final appeals before Election Day, targeting critical swing states as polls project a very tight race (2m6s).
• The Siena poll shows Trump and Harris effectively tied, with many voters only recently deciding who to support, breaking in favor of Harris by 11 points (2m31s).
• Over 78 million people have already voted in the election, more than half of the electorate who voted in 2020, with high turnout in battleground states such as North Carolina and Georgia (3m0s).

US Presidential Election Campaign

• Both Trump and Harris are on the road, making their message to the voting base, with Trump in North Carolina and Harris crisscrossing Pennsylvania, where Trump will also be spending time before ending his day in Michigan (3m36s).
• Trump's campaign has generated attention-grabbing headlines, including a suggestion that he doesn't think he should have left the White House, and a comment that could be taken as a threat to the press (4m0s).
• A new Des Moines Register poll shows Harris up three points in Iowa, a state Trump easily won in 2020 and 2016, with Harris leading among women by a margin of 20 points and senior women supporting her by 2-1 (4m33s).
• The upcoming election is expected to be about voter turnout, with statistics playing a crucial role in determining the outcome (5m1s).

Elon Musk's Sweepstakes and Potential Role in Trump Administration

• A hearing was held in Pennsylvania regarding Elon Musk's $1 million sweepstakes for registered voters, which is in legal jeopardy as it allegedly violates election law by paying people to vote (5m13s).
• The sweepstakes is limited to registered voters, and the hearing is back in state court after a judge denied Elon Musk's effort to move it to federal court (5m28s).
• The outcome of the hearing is uncertain, and it may not be resolved in time for Election Day, which is tomorrow (5m50s).
• Elon Musk has donated tens of millions to a group organizing part of the Trump ground game, which has sourced a lot of the get-out-the-vote effort (6m5s).
• The Trump campaign's strategy of sourcing get-out-the-vote efforts from this group will be interesting to analyze once the final election results are in (6m19s).
• If Donald Trump were to claim a second term in the White House, there is speculation that Elon Musk might take on a role in the Department of Government Efficiency (6m40s).
• As a Tesla investor, one should prepare for either election scenario, but the rhetoric is hard to parse through, and it's uncertain what will happen (6m49s).
• Elon Musk has been effective in running multiple companies, and it's likely that he and Donald Trump will figure out a way to work together if the election goes in that direction (7m14s).

US-China Relations and Tesla's Performance

• The relationship between the US and China is a concern going forward after the election, with recent data showing that Shanghai output around manufacturing in China is not living up to expectations (7m58s).
• Tesla's manufacturing in China has been a bit of a disappointment, but the stock doesn't appear to be under much pressure, and it's trading as if everything is going to go perfectly (8m14s).
• The stock is at a price-earnings-to-growth ratio of 40 times, and earnings growth is needed to justify this valuation (8m43s).
• If Trump were to win, it will likely impact the scope of the IRA model tax credits, which is something to consider in the analysis (9m8s).

Potential Impact of Election on Policies and Nvidia's Stock

• The new administration may find it difficult to make adjustments to bills passed by the previous administration, as seen in the past when Republicans failed to repeal Obamacare despite their promises (9m32s).
• Nvidia's stock price may surpass Apple's, with Nvidia's worth potentially reaching $3.6 trillion, making it more valuable than Apple (9m59s).
• Nvidia's addition to the Dow and Intel's removal from it is seen as a significant change, with Nvidia's earnings growth being remarkable and its price-earnings-to-growth ratio being 1.1 times, lower than that of Tesla or Microsoft (11m15s).
• Intel's removal from the Dow is attributed to its failure to pivot to new technologies and its squandering of innovation, with the company being down cumulatively since the end of 1999 (10m36s).
• Nvidia's growth is expected to continue, with a significant backlog and a strong position in the market, making it a good investment opportunity (11m46s).

Cybersecurity and Election Integrity

• The Director of the Cyber Infrastructure Security Agency has warned of potential threats to voting confidence in the upcoming US election, urging the public to be prepared for a potential waiting game before results can be finalized (12m33s).
• The agency is working to build trust in the election system, with the new head of the agency, Jenny Vesely, taking a personalized approach to reassure the public of the system's security and resilience (13m42s).
• Vesely is a West Point graduate who has done tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and is known for her transparency and candor, having spoken before Congress and at conferences to build relationships and trust (14m15s).
• The biggest challenge for state and local election officials is verifying the information people consume online, especially on social media platforms, and ensuring they trust the right institutions (14m39s).
• People are advised to verify information by checking their state election officials' websites, especially around the voting process, and to be cautious of misinformation on social media (15m48s).
• The idea that the election will be decided on the day is not guaranteed, and people are advised to have faith in the institutions and wait for the results (16m0s).
• Many people do not have faith in institutions, which is why it's interesting that some individuals are trying to make a difference despite limited resources (16m11s).
• Voluntary guidelines for the private sector to address cyber security threats are in place, but it's a question of how much everyone will meet in the middle to ensure success (16m33s).
• The government is trying to get everyone on board to address cyber security threats, but it's a long process, and everyone needs to be patient and trust the results (16m48s).
• The integrity of the electoral process is crucial, and it may take a long time to count every single vote, but that's part of the process (17m17s).

Social Media's Role in the Election

• Social media platforms, such as X and Meta, have indicated that they went too far on content moderation, and academics say that all the elements are in place for abuse of those platforms despite attempts to suppress this information (18m5s).
• The landscape of social media has changed significantly, especially on TikTok, Meta, and X, with the biggest changes occurring on X after Elon Musk took over (18m36s).
• Elon Musk has used the X platform to rally support for Republican candidate Donald Trump, completely changing the nature of the platform for its users (19m6s).
• Social media platforms have changed their approach to handling election-related content, with some taking a more hands-off approach, while others are moving away from promoting political content altogether (19m36s).
• Meta is no longer favoring posts related to politics and is instead promoting non-political content, resulting in users seeing less election-related content on their feeds (19m43s).
• TikTok has become a significant platform for political discourse, with over 170 million users in the US, roughly twice the size it was in 2020, and has become a major hub for election-related content (20m7s).
• The role of platforms in the election has changed, with Twitter and Meta taking a more hands-off approach, and the public's ability to understand what they are seeing on these platforms has decreased (21m2s).
• Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk have cut members of their teams responsible for election integrity and trusting safety, making it harder for researchers to track misinformation (21m8s).
• Elon Musk has made it more expensive for researchers to access Twitter analytics, and the platform has shut down tools like Crowd Tangle, which helped track misinformation (21m36s).
• TikTok has removed video view counts, making it harder to track the spread of misinformation, and the conversation has shifted to smaller, less moderated forums, creating a more chaotic atmosphere (21m59s).
• The shift in social media policy on misinformation is reflected in the market performance of tech companies, with Meta being flat, Snap being down, and DJT, the parent company of True Social, being moderately higher (23m43s).

Brief News Updates

• The US presidential election is a "dead heat," with a lot to be discussed by both campaigns in the coming days (24m1s).
• EU regulators believe Apple's iPad now complies with the Digital Markets Act, allowing users to choose a default web browser and access certain OS features (24m17s).
• Schneider Electric has ousted its CEO after a year and a half, citing disagreements with the board over the company's strategic direction (24m36s).
• A judge has ruled that Elon Musk and high-ranking Twitter officers can proceed with claims that they were terminated and cheated out of severance pay (24m59s).
• Elon Musk's recent pro-Trump sweepstakes has been under scrutiny and is being protested in court, with a judge set to rule on the matter (25m15s).
• The legal proceedings against Musk's sweepstakes in Pennsylvania are focused on state laws, specifically consumer protection and whether the sweepstakes constitutes an illegal lottery (26m8s).

Tech and Venture Capital Perspectives on the Election

• The election is fast approaching, and voices in technology and venture capital are speaking out on both sides of the race (26m41s).
• Shannon Nash, co-founder of Tech for, a group supporting Vice President Kamala Harris, believes Harris is open to listening to different voices in the technology industry and has a collaborative approach to innovation (27m23s).
• Research suggests that if former President Trump reclaims the White House, EV incentives will be impacted, while a Harris administration would seek continuity and maintain the status quo (28m2s).
• Shannon Nash argues that maintaining the status quo is not a policy, and that Harris's approach to climate tech and other issues is more collaborative and open to different voices (28m23s).
• Harris's opponent has expressed willingness to dismantle the EPA and FEMA, while Harris has stated her support for climate tech and growing the industry (28m48s).
• Harris has been vocal about certain areas in technology, including AI, and has talked about being collaborative in terms of looking at how to approach AI regulation in an ethical and supportive manner (29m0s).
• Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump supporter, has emphasized the need to reduce legislation, suggesting that deregulation is necessary for semiconductor construction in the United States (29m28s).
• There is a risk that people may believe President Harris is synonymous with a lack of innovation, but this is not the case, as Harris is working on policies that will allow for balanced regulation and innovation (30m32s).
• Changes in leadership may be necessary in areas such as the FTC and regulation around crypto, and Harris is open to bringing together different voices to achieve this (31m7s).
• Harris has been vocal about being her own president and not following the status quo, and she is qualified to be president having served as the Attorney General of California (31m48s).
• The election has been divisive and caused tension in relationships, particularly between LPs and venture capitals, but Harris is bringing more joy to politics and uniting people (32m28s).
• Harris's approach to regulation is not about stifling competition, but about creating a balanced playing field that allows for innovation and growth (30m23s).
• Kamala Harris has expressed her willingness to listen to people one-on-one in a non-divisive manner, acknowledging that not everyone will agree with her, and her goal is to be the president for all Americans (32m53s).
• The approach to the election is focused on coming together as a united America, rather than promoting divisive hate speech (33m7s).
• In terms of companies strategizing for the election, the focus is on bringing together diverse voices and continuing innovation with a competitive advantage, rather than preparing for a specific outcome (33m55s).

Republican Perspective on the Election and Technology

• The discussion shifts to the Republican side of the election, with a focus on supporting the ticket of former President Donald Trump and JD Vance (34m52s).
• The importance of regulation in the technology industry is emphasized, but it is not the only reason why Trump is considered the best choice for the industry (35m21s).
• The Trump administration's policies are seen as essential for stimulating growth, encouraging innovation, and promoting American ingenuity, which is crucial for national security and American prosperity (35m40s).
• The current administration's policies have led to the offshoring of critical components of American manufacturing and disastrous energy policies, making the US less prosperous and less safe (36m13s).
• The CHIPS Act has worked with industries and companies, but it is argued that the industry has thrived despite the last four years, not because of the current administration (36m31s).
• The current administration gets a "C minus" on providing the necessary conditions for healthy manufacturing, including cheap and abundant energy, low interest rates, and a favorable business environment (36m47s).
• The development of nuclear energy, the cheapest and safest form of baseload power, has been blocked by the Harris-Biden administration (37m7s).
• The US is the largest buyer of Russian enriched uranium, despite having a domestic source in Arizona, making the country reliant on a foreign adversary for baseload power and funding the Russian nuclear weapons complex (37m27s).
• This decision is a result of a policy choice made by the Harris-Biden administration, which bowed to the lobbying of a particular interest group in the US (37m51s).
• There are limitations on imports from Russia, and companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have announced investments in nuclear energy under the current administration (38m17s).
• Nuclear energy is seen as essential for US manufacturing, meeting the energy requirements of AI, and responding to climate change (38m58s).
• Six Republican members of Congress passed a bill to limit the import of uranium from Russia, but the bill includes a waiver that mandates the continued purchase of uranium from Russia through 2028 (39m33s).
• The Biden-Harris administration's policies have resulted in the US being dependent on Russia for a critical input for energy (39m54s).
• Energy Secretary is focused on bringing nuclear energy back to the US, and there are concerns about potential retribution against opponents in the upcoming elections (40m1s).
• Venture capitalist Reid Hoffman, who supports the Harris campaign, has expressed worries about potential retribution, citing Trump's past actions (40m23s).
• However, Crystal does not worry about penalization, citing a lack of examples of retribution by Donald Trump and an uptick in prosecutions of people associated with the Trump administration under the current administration (40m53s).
• Joe Biden signed a ban on imports of uranium into the country on May 13, but the ban includes a waiver (41m30s).

Hedge Fund's AI Investments

• A tech-focused hedge fund is looking to raise $1 billion to amplify bets on artificial intelligence, a significant move as they have not reopened their hedge funds to cash in years (42m19s).
• The hedge fund's bullish investments include NVIDIA, one of their biggest holdings, and they see opportunities in AI and peripheral areas like AI technology and energy (42m58s).
• The hedge fund manager has expressed optimism about the future of AI, predicting humanoid robots will be part of the future in 15 years (43m4s).
• In the hedge fund space, they are turning to bank wealth platforms to raise money, a space where they can raise money as institutional investors have become more cautious (43m34s).
• High net worth individuals are helping the hedge fund raise money, as institutional investors have become more reticent (43m49s).

Bloomberg Election Coverage

• Bloomberg will have special coverage of the election on Tuesday, starting at 5 p.m. Eastern with an extended edition of "Balance of Power" (42m5s).