Scott Galloway: “I Bet $358,000 That They Win The Election!”

Intro (0s)

• The upcoming US election may be decided based on which candidate presents a more aspirational vision of masculinity, with the far right promoting a provocative and aggressive vision, and the far left promoting a more empathetic and feminine vision (0s).
• The outcome of the election could be influenced by which vision of masculinity resonates with voters, potentially swinging the election in favor of the right (13s).
• The consequences of a potential Trump win are a concern, with questions about what it would mean for America's future (15s).
• Trump's unpredictability and willingness to speak his mind have been seen as authentic and appealing to some voters (30s).
• The Democratic party has been criticized for being humorless and not addressing the needs of certain demographic groups, such as young men (34s).
• Young men have been disproportionately affected by issues such as homelessness, incarceration, and mental health, but feel seen by the Republican party and Trump (57s).
• Despite this, Trump's policies may have negative consequences for young people, including a potential large tax increase (1m14s).
• A significant portion of the audience has not yet subscribed to the show, and a request is made for support by hitting the Subscribe button (1m33s).
• A bet of $358,000 is being placed on the outcome of the election, with the outcome to be revealed later (1m24s).

What Are You Thinking About At This Moment (2m4s)

• The current state of the US is tense and polarized, with political parties resembling quasi-religions that sanctify people's beliefs, rather than organizations that engage in policy arguments (2m39s).
• A recent experience at a fundraiser in Miami, where a discussion about teen mental health was disrupted by someone yelling "Trump 2024" and others booing, highlights the intense polarization in the US (3m2s).
• Despite the common claim that every election is the most important in history, this one does feel consequential due to issues like bodily autonomy, particularly the potential restriction of women's rights (4m9s).
• The US is unique in that it is taking away a right, specifically a woman's right to determine her own bodily autonomy, whereas most other nations have moved towards granting more rights (4m30s).
• The upcoming election is also significant because of the possibility of an autocrat being elected, which would challenge the peaceful transfer of power, a central aspect of democracy (4m44s).
• The polarization in the US is so extreme that it feels like the country is coming apart from the inside, despite its many blessings (3m22s).
• The endorsement of Vice President Harris is acknowledged, although she was not the first choice for the Democratic nominee (5m3s).
• The election feels like a choice between two fundamentally different visions of America, highlighting the deep divisions within the country (5m18s).

What's Happened For Us To Get To This Point? (5m19s)

• The current situation in America is attributed to various macro pieces coming together, including Elon Musk buying Twitter, Andrew Tate's rise in culture, the economic backdrop, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting inflation issues (5m20s).
• The economic data in America is strikingly different from the public's perception, with the majority of Americans thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction despite the economy growing 12.5% since 2019 (6m19s).
• The American economy has outperformed other G7 nations, with the stock market now accounting for half of the total market capitalization of all stocks globally, up from a third in 2009 (6m41s).
• The US has become the largest energy producer in the world and has added several trillion dollars in market capitalization over the last five years, while China has shed several trillion dollars (7m6s).
• Despite the economic prosperity, it is not evenly distributed, with the top 1% of American earners experiencing significant growth, while the bottom 99% are not doing as well (7m54s).
• A study found that if the top 1% of American earners were excluded, France would have grown household income faster than the US, highlighting the wealth disparity (8m17s).
• The Dow Jones and NASDAQ are largely indicative of the wealthy, with 1% of America owning 90% of the stocks, and the wealthy have hit 76 new all-time highs in the last year (8m33s).
• The constant exposure to others' success on social media, with people seeing how well others are doing 210 times a day, contributes to the perception of a lack of prosperity (8m56s).
• There is a fundamental breakdown in the social compact in America, where for the first time, a 30-year-old is not doing as well as their parents were at 30, impacting not only the individual but also their family (9m8s).
• Many young men are struggling, with one out of three living with their parents under the age of 25 and one in five still living with their parents at the age of 30, creating feelings of rage and shame (9m20s).
• There is a lack of connection among young people, with only one in three men having a girlfriend under the age of 30, as women often prefer to date older, more economically and emotionally viable men (9m32s).
• Many people, especially young people, are opting out of traditional American life, with 40% fewer households with a 30-year-old having at least one child compared to 40 years ago (9m45s).
• This decline in optimism is reflected in the fact that the percentage of 30-year-olds with at least one child has decreased from 60% to 27% over the past 40 years (9m50s).
• There is a disconnect between the economic reality and the perception of it, with many people not doing well, despite social media algorithms often presenting a more positive picture (10m1s).
• The average 7-year-old is 72% wealthier than they were 40 years ago, while the average person under 40 is 24% less wealthy, contributing to the struggles of young people (10m16s).
• The struggles of young people have a broader impact on society, affecting everyone (10m22s).
• Despite wage growth outpacing inflation, leading to increased purchasing power and prosperity in the US, many people still blame the administration for economic problems rather than recognizing the role of their own hard work (10m39s).
• Social media algorithms and the polarized nature of politics contribute to a sense of division and overwhelm, making it difficult for people to recognize that America is still one of the most prosperous countries in the world (11m7s).

Personality For Presidents Is More Important Than Ever (11m12s)

• The increased visibility of politicians due to algorithms and social media has made personality more important than ever in the digital age, as people can see them multiple times a day and get to know them more personally (11m26s).
• In the past, politicians were seen as straight-laced and polished, but now algorithms favor politicians with personality, and the old pragmatists and practitioners have been replaced with performers (12m5s).
• The incentives for politicians to raise money have led to a focus on saying incendiary things that appeal to their tribe, rather than passing laws or engaging in meaningful policy discussions (12m33s).
• This has resulted in politicians who are good at getting on social media and raising money, but have never passed a bill, and boring politicians are unlikely to go viral on platforms like TikTok (13m10s).
• The focus on personality and outrageous statements has taken oxygen out of the room for real policy discussions, and has led to the election of politicians with extreme views who are unable to work together (14m53s).
• The gerrymandering of congressional districts has also contributed to the polarization of politics, as politicians are more focused on appealing to their party's base in the primary election than on working towards common goals (15m1s).
• This has resulted in a situation where politicians have fundamentally different worldviews and are unable to work together, leading to minority rule and a disconnect between the views of politicians and the majority of Americans (15m27s).
• The example of Trump's economic plan, which would triple the deficits of the Harris plan, is cited as an example of how the focus on personality and outrageous statements can distract from important policy issues (13m51s).
• The inability to connect the dots between policy decisions and their impact on young people, such as the potential for massive inflation and debt, is also highlighted as a problem (14m40s).

What Has Trump Done Well? (15m41s)

• Trump has successfully captured votes and gained support by employing an unconventional approach, often referred to as "zagging" while others are "zigging," which involves going against the norm and challenging traditional methods (16m7s).
• This approach is comparable to Shopify's strategy of zagging against Amazon's e-commerce model, where Shopify focused on servicing clients rather than owning customer data (16m11s).
• For decades, politicians have attempted to appeal to every group, often being overly cautious and "PG-13" in their approach, which has led to people feeling like they are being lied to (16m45s).
• Trump, on the other hand, has been successful in tapping into people's grievances and anger by saying things that feel raw and authentic, even if they are considered offensive (17m0s).
• He has effectively used social media to capture attention and stay in the news cycle, which is crucial in today's attention economy (17m46s).
• Trump's ability to come across as authentic, unafraid, and politically incorrect in a sea of political correctness has been refreshing to many people (18m5s).
• He has great political instincts and has successfully positioned himself as a businessman who can put more money in people's pockets, which is a key factor in many Americans' voting decisions (18m27s).
• Many Americans believe that Trump's business background and promise to lower taxes will result in more money in their pockets, even if it means increasing the deficit in the long run (18m42s).

Trump On Joe Rogan (18m54s)

• The 2024 US presidential election is expected to be significantly influenced by podcasting, with the medium's popularity increasing by 30% since the last presidential election, while cable TV viewership has decreased by 22% over the same period (19m29s).
• Donald Trump's appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast is seen as a strategic move, allowing him to reach a large audience of 11 million people, with 40 million more viewing the interview on YouTube (19m47s).
• The average prime-time cable show attracts around half a million viewers, making Trump's appearance on Rogan's podcast equivalent to appearing on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox every night for a week (19m56s).
• The use of podcasting as a campaign strategy is compared to previous elections, where new mediums such as TV, radio, and social media played a significant role in shaping the outcome (19m25s).
• The seminal podcast that marked the beginning of podcasting's influence in politics was Vice President Kamala Harris's appearance on the "Call Her Daddy" podcast, which generated widespread discussion and attention (20m30s).
• Trump's team is credited with executing a successful strategy by having him appear on Rogan's podcast, which humanized and softened his image, making him appear more relatable and charming to a wider audience (20m58s).
• The appearance on Rogan's podcast even changed the perception of a strong feminist and anti-Trump individual, who found Trump to be funny and charming after watching the interview (21m21s).

Why Are Men Choosing Trump (22m11s)

• A recent poll in a group chat showed that four out of six men preferred Trump to win the election, with the reasoning behind this preference being explored (22m37s).
• The current election is unusual in that neither candidate has ever been elected before, and it's unprecedented for an incumbent party to be reelected with less than 50% approval (23m21s).
• Historically, no presidential candidate who has never been above 50% approval has ever been reelected, making this election unprecedented regardless of the winner (23m47s).
• Young men are going more conservative, while young women are becoming slightly more progressive, leading to unfortunate social ramifications, including difficulties in dating and relationships (24m2s).
• Politics has become a significant factor in relationships, with people now considering their partner's political affiliation, which was not the case in the past (24m25s).
• Young men are not necessarily becoming more conservative, but rather, they are leaving the Democratic party, which is perceived as catering to specific demographic groups, including 76% of the US population, as listed on the DNC website (25m4s).
• The perception is that the Democratic party is not advocating for the remaining 24% of the population, which includes young men, leading to their departure from the party (25m50s).
• The Democratic National Convention failed to acknowledge the struggles of young men, who have fallen furthest and fastest in the United States, with three out of four opioid and homeless individuals being men, and men being three times as likely to kill themselves and 12 times as likely to be incarcerated (26m7s).
• The Democratic party has become self-appointed "cops of social justice," trying to lecture the nation on social policy, which has been rejected by many Americans, and has shifted focus away from economic policies that could impact people's lives (26m54s).
• The party's focus on social policy has led to a rise in complaints about racism, despite significant investments in diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, such as the University of Michigan's $150 million investment, which has seen a 30-fold increase in complaints (27m17s).
• Young men do not feel seen by the Democratic party, and it's not that they're moving to the Republican party, but rather moving away from the Democratic party, with their families also feeling this way (27m39s).
• Women have made significant progress globally, with twice as many women being elected to parliament in the last 30 years, and more women seeking tertiary education than men, which is a huge victory, but this progress has also led to a sense of disconnection among young men (28m3s).
• The "high heels effect" analogy suggests that women tend to be attracted to men who can physically protect them, and as women become more successful and "taller," men are becoming "shorter" and feeling less attractive, leading to a smaller pool of potential romantic partners (28m24s).
• When men don't have the prospect of a romantic relationship, they often reinvest their energy in unproductive activities like vaping, video games, and porn, whereas women tend to reinvest in friendships and work (29m17s).
• The most violent and unstable places in the world often have a significant imbalance in the ratio of men to women, highlighting the importance of addressing the struggles of young men (29m28s).
• A significant number of men, particularly young men, have limited economic and romantic opportunities, leading to feelings of anger and frustration, which the Republican party and Trump have capitalized on by pushing back against certain social policies (29m32s).
• The progressive movement has become so extreme that it is no longer promoting the rights of non-whites, but rather creating a sense of collective guilt among non-white males who are struggling financially and socially (30m1s).
• Sixty years ago, only 12 black people attended Princeton, Harvard, and Yale, but now two-thirds of Harvard's freshman class identifies as non-white, highlighting the significant progress made in promoting diversity (30m13s).
• Despite this progress, non-white males are still struggling with lower incomes, addiction, and lower homeownership rates, leading to feelings of frustration and anger (30m22s).
• The Democratic party has moved away from young men, creating a sense of justifiable anger and a feeling of being pushed out of the party (30m43s).
• The Republican party has gained significant support among young men, increasing from 35% in 2016 to 48% in 2023, a 13% increase in just seven years (31m6s).
• The Democratic party needs to find a way to champion women's rights without pushing away young men, as everyone wants to feel a sense of belonging (31m31s).

What Is That Trump Is Saying To Make Young Men Vote For Him? (31m41s)

• The Republican Party has seen a 133% increase in support from young men, indicating that the party is saying something that resonates with this demographic, particularly in terms of masculinity (31m49s).
• The election may be decided by which party presents a more aspirational and effective vision of masculinity, with the far right promoting a vision of masculinity that emphasizes being provocative, aggressive, and strong (32m28s).
• The far left's vision of masculinity, which emphasizes being more like a woman, does not seem to be resonating with men, and the Democrats have failed to convince young men that bodily autonomy affects them specifically (32m54s).
• The lack of bodily autonomy can have economic consequences for men, such as having an unwanted child and being cemented in poverty, which could be used as an argument to convince young men to support the Democrats (33m17s).
• The case for supporting Vice President Harris is that her policies would provide more opportunities for men, including more opportunities for sex, and that the economic policies of Harris would give young men the chance to be better providers (33m31s).
• The economic growth under Harris' policies would likely be stronger than under Trump's policies, according to investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, which could make it easier for men to be good providers (34m56s).
• Tariffs of 60% on all Chinese goods and a war on immigration, both legal and illegal, are a recipe for inflation, and the Republican party has done a better job of convincing men that they will have an easier time being providers under their administration (35m6s).
• The default operating system for men should be protection, as real men break up fights, protect their country, and have a strong instinct to protect the women in their lives (35m41s).
• This instinct is motivating for men, as seen in the desire to protect and care for their mothers, and it can be a powerful default setting for men to move towards protection (36m9s).
• Men do not need to understand the nuances of certain issues, but when they see a group being demonized, their default setting should be to protection, which comes naturally to men due to their inclination to run out and save a comrade on the battlefield (36m39s).
• Women's rights are under serious threat in the United States, with 21 states restricting abortion to some extent, and this is particularly affecting poor women who do not have access to resources or money to terminate a pregnancy (37m25s).
• The Democratic party has not made a strong enough case for protection around their policies, particularly in terms of allowing men to be protectors, and this is something that needs to be addressed (38m23s).
• Michelle Obama made a powerful speech about the importance of men having a default setting of protection, particularly when it comes to protecting women and women's rights (35m34s).
• The economy plays a significant role in people's decision to vote for a particular candidate, with some individuals believing that voting for a certain candidate, such as Trump, will make them rich and enable them to take care of their family (38m37s).
• The data suggests that economic policies under a potential Harris administration would likely be similar to Biden's policies over the last four years (38m55s).
• Harris made a mistake during an appearance on The View, stating that she couldn't think of any policy differences between herself and Biden, which raised questions about why she should be elected if her policies are the same as his (39m6s).
• Harris has struggled with thinking on her feet, but has shown improvement, particularly during a debate where she performed well due to preparation (39m17s).
• A comparison between Harris and another candidate, likely Trump, shows that the latter is more effective at thinking on his feet and responding to questions (39m29s).

Trump Speaking His Mind Is A Super Power (39m33s)

• The perception is that Donald Trump is likable and funny, while his opponent is seen as overthinking and trying to provide perfect answers, which can be a disadvantage (39m34s).
• Trump's ability to speak his mind without filtering his thoughts is seen as a superpower, allowing him to connect with people in a way that his opponent cannot (39m40s).
• There is a double standard in how Trump and his opponent are judged, with his opponent being graded on a much tougher curve and held to a higher standard (39m56s).
• If Trump's opponent had been accused of the same things he has, such as sexual assault, she would likely be disqualified from the election (40m1s).
• Van Jones has said that Trump is "lawless," while his opponent has to be "flawless" in order to be taken seriously (40m11s).
• The opponent's words are heavily parsed, while Trump is able to say strange and ridiculous things without facing the same level of scrutiny (40m19s).
• Young men are starting to see the importance of bodily autonomy and are becoming more aware of the issues surrounding it (40m38s).
• The opponent's policies, such as a first-time homebuyer's tax credit and small business loans, may be more beneficial to young people, while being less favorable to older, wealthy individuals (40m49s).
• The issue of bodily autonomy is closely tied to other issues, such as procreation, and it is essential to give women control over their own bodies (41m7s).

You're Judged By The Character You Build (41m12s)

• In life, it's essential to be mindful of the image or "hill" you build for yourself, as that's what you'll be judged on, and this applies to everyone, including public figures like Kamala Harris. (41m19s)
• Building a brand of perfection and polish can be detrimental, as it creates high expectations and makes you more vulnerable to criticism and attacks when you inevitably fail to meet those expectations. (41m27s)
• It's crucial to be authentic and acknowledge your imperfections, as this can be a protective position in a world of cancel culture and wokeism, making it harder for others to criticize you. (41m50s)
• Donald Trump has built a brand of being imperfect and unapologetic, which has desensitized people to his actions and made it challenging to hold him to a higher standard. (42m3s)
• Trump's consistent behavior, including making offensive comments, has made it difficult for others to criticize him effectively, as his actions are seen as authentic and expected. (42m21s)
• This approach can be seen as a form of "flooding the zone," where the sheer volume of controversies and criticisms makes it hard for any one issue to gain traction. (42m32s)
• The Democratic party can learn from this approach, as authenticity and imperfection can be more relatable and endearing to people than a polished, perfect image. (42m40s)

We Should Move Away From Identity Politics (42m41s)

• The current system of affirmative action in the US is based on identity politics, which identifies policies based on an individual's race, sexual orientation, and gender, and it's argued that this approach has passed its peak. (42m42s)
• Affirmative action was initially a wonderful thing, especially when it was first introduced in the 1960s as a race-based policy, but the question now is how to identify and qualify individuals for a "hand up" in a fair manner. (42m56s)
• The traditional metric for affirmative action has been based on identity politics, but it's suggested that this approach should be replaced with a new metric, where the color that matters is "green," referring to economic status rather than racial or ethnic background. (43m50s)
• Research has shown that in the US, it's more beneficial to be born non-white or gay than to be born poor, and there's evidence that many non-white students who benefit from affirmative action come from upper-income homes with dual parents. (44m4s)
• The proposed new approach to affirmative action would prioritize individuals from lower-income homes, regardless of their racial or ethnic background, and it's estimated that around 70% of those who currently benefit from affirmative action would still be eligible under this new system. (44m34s)
• The people who would lose out under this new construct would be non-whites from wealthy households, while those who would gain are white kids from lower-income households, such as those from Appalachia who come from single-parent homes. (44m55s)
• The University of California system's decision in 1997 to ban race-based affirmative action and introduce an adversity score is cited as a potential model for this new approach, where a student's ability to overcome adversity is taken into account in the admissions process. (46m11s)
• The importance of resilience and overcoming obstacles in life is highlighted as a key factor in running government policies effectively, rather than focusing on identity politics, which can create more problems than it solves (46m23s).
• The individual shares their personal experience of being considered a black man due to their Nigerian mother and African birth, but notes that their future children will not require any advantages due to being born into a different class (46m41s).
• The belief is expressed that advantages should be given to those at the very bottom of the socioeconomic ladder, rather than people like their future children who will not need it, and that class should be the basis for such advantages (47m27s).
• The conversation around Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is seen as problematic, and while diversity of opinion and lived experience is desired, opportunities should not be handed out disproportionately based on factors like race or gender alone (47m39s).
• The individual acknowledges being a beneficiary of massive bias, particularly in the 1990s when raising money for their companies in Silicon Valley, where 98% of the capital went to white men (48m10s).
• An experience is shared about a meeting with a venture capital firm, L2, where all 27 partners were men, and how this lack of diversity was not initially noticed (48m37s).
• Progress has been made since then, with the firm now having a quarter to a third of female partners, and it is suggested that enough progress has been made around affirmative action to move towards economically driven affirmative action (49m20s).
• The idea of a class-based system is seen as encouraging, as it would include people from minority groups who are statistically more likely to be in lower socioeconomic classes (49m41s).
• A recent rally at Madison Square Garden was mentioned, highlighting the current state of events (49m58s).
• There is a massive floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean, which is compared to Puerto Rico (50m5s).
• The situation in Texas is described as "crazy" due to its proximity to a wide-open border (50m21s).
• The speaker welcomes migrants to the United States with open arms, receiving applause from the audience (50m40s).
• The Latino community is acknowledged and appreciated, with the speaker expressing admiration for them (50m26s).

The October Surprise (50m56s)

• A comedian made a joke about Puerto Ricans that was considered offensive, but not funny, and it was used as an opportunity to create a marketing campaign (50m56s).
• There are two perspectives on the incident: one is that comedians should be given a wide berth and the joke was just a joke, and the other is that the comedian's team should have known better than to use that joke in that context (51m16s).
• Comedians play an important role in saying provocative and sometimes offensive things to make people think, and they should be given a wide berth (52m4s).
• The comedian's joke was not funny, and if it had been, people would have forgiven him, but since it wasn't, it was just considered offensive (53m1s).
• The joke was also tactically unwise, as there are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, and offending them could have cost the election (53m37s).
• The comedian's team should have known better than to use that joke, especially since it was on a teleprompter, and they should have put the jokes about Puerto Ricans aside for the time being (54m8s).
• The incident is not just about whether comedians should be given a wide berth, but also about the tactical decision to use a joke that could have offended a key demographic (54m23s).
• The Trump Administration's sense of humor is appealing, and the Democratic party is often seen as humorless, with everything being considered offensive or triggering. (54m30s)
• The Democratic party's sensitivity and weakness on this issue may be a turn-off for some people, who are tired of everything being considered offensive. (54m46s)
• The Trump campaign supposedly has between 30,000 and 50,000 people canvassing, while the Harris campaign has 300,000 people on the streets, walking people to the polls. (55m46s)
• For every one person knocking on doors for a Trump voter, there are 10 people working for Harris in swing states, which could potentially swing the election. (55m55s)
• The Trump campaign's decision to insult Puerto Ricans was tactically and strategically terrible, as it will be used in ads and may motivate people to vote against Trump. (56m17s)
• The left's fake outrage over the incident is also seen as off-putting, as it is perceived as insincere. (56m55s)
• A bet of $358,000 is being placed on Harris winning the election, as the polls and statistics show it is a toss-up, but the betting sites tend to favor Trump due to their demographics. (57m16s)
• The polls show a slight advantage to Trump, but within the margin of error, making the election a toss-up. (57m46s)
• A bet of $358,000 was made with a potential return of $1 million, offering a risk-adjusted return of 2.8 to one, which is considered a good bet statistically (58m7s).
• The bet is on Kamala Harris winning the election, despite the odds being against her, as the actual odds of her winning might be better than the given odds (59m2s).
• The enthusiasm gap between supporters of different candidates can greatly impact the outcome of an election, as seen in the 2016 presidential election where Hillary Clinton's supporters lacked enthusiasm (58m45s).
• In contrast to the 2016 election, it's believed that the "embarrassment effect" of voting for Donald Trump has decreased, making polls more accurate (1h0m38s).
• Three reasons why Kamala Harris might win the election include the issue of bodily autonomy, which greatly impacts women, and the fact that women are more organized and likely to vote (1h0m58s).
• Women, especially young women, are more likely to be in Harris's camp and are more organized, meticulous, and better planners, making them more likely to actually vote (1h1m8s).
• In contrast, young men are less likely to vote due to various reasons, which could impact the outcome of the election (1h1m24s).
• Young men's prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for decision-making, doesn't fully develop until around age 25, which is later than women's, and this may lead to a higher turnout among young women in the election, potentially benefiting Harris (1h1m44s).
• The Democratic party's message about men stepping up and being protectors may resonate with voters, but this is also subject to confirmation bias (1h2m11s).
• Despite polls showing a close margin, a statistician might pick Trump to win, but Harris is still considered a likely winner (1h2m27s).
• The US is performing well in various dimensions, including the economy, which is expected to grow more than the rest of the world combined in terms of gross domestic product next year (1h2m57s).
• The US dominates the AI industry, with no great AI company existing outside of the US, which is a significant technological advantage (1h3m4s).
• The amygdala, the emotional center of the brain, plays a crucial role in decision-making, and emotional stories can trump data, facts, and stats, which is why Trump's image as a billionaire can be appealing to some voters (1h3m23s).
• A neuroscientist, possibly Dr. Ben Carlson, discussed the power of emotional stories in decision-making, citing Trump's ability to connect with voters on an emotional level (1h3m54s).

Emotion & Facts (1h4m2s)

• A neuroscientist mentioned that despite presenting facts and statistics about vaccines not causing autism, a personal anecdote from Trump about a friend's daughter developing autism after receiving a vaccine made her feel less likely to give her own daughter the vaccine, highlighting the power of emotional stories over facts (1h4m2s).
• This phenomenon is reflective of the current election, where facts and statistics do not seem to matter, and people are more influenced by how they feel and the frame or narrative presented to them (1h4m37s).
• The anti-vaccination movement originated on the far left, but it has since become a bipartisan issue, with both Republicans and Democrats contributing to a lack of respect for institutions (1h4m51s).
• In the past, people used to come together around data and respect institutions, but now, many people distrust organizations like the American Pediatric Association and the American Health Association, which have found no correlation between vaccines and autism (1h5m8s).
• The erosion of trust in institutions has led people to rely more on their social media algorithms, which often feed them polarizing and incendiary content (1h5m43s).
• It is believed that people are exhausted with the chaos and tension associated with Trump's presidency, and this exhaustion may lead swing voters to choose a different candidate, with Harris potentially benefiting from this sentiment (1h5m56s).

People Seem To Have Forgotten What It Was Like When Trump Was In Office Last Time (1h6m19s)

• People tend to forget the past and view it through rose-tinted glasses, which is why many think their life was better four years ago despite possibly having more money, better health, and education now (1h6m40s).
• This phenomenon is often exploited in election cycles with the question "do you feel better off now than four years ago," which tends to work in favor of the opposing party (1h6m55s).
• In America, people under the age of 45 have never experienced inflation, which can lead to a distorted view of the past when comparing prices of goods and services (1h7m23s).
• The rising cost of living can lead people to blame the government for their financial struggles, rather than acknowledging the impact of inflation (1h7m46s).
• It is hoped that the next election will have a decisive winner, as a close result could lead to further division and contestation (1h8m20s).
• A decisive victory would allow the winning party to implement their vision for the country without opposition, which is necessary for progress (1h8m35s).
• The UK's election process is often cited as an example of how elections can be conducted efficiently and without the intense polarization seen in the US (1h8m54s).
• The use of social media platforms has contributed to the division in American society, with foreign actors potentially exploiting these platforms to further their own interests (1h9m28s).
• The goal of these foreign actors is to create division and hatred among Americans, making it easier to defeat the country strategically (1h9m42s).
• An example of this can be seen on TikTok, where there are 52 pro-Palestine videos for every one pro-Israel video, indicating an attempt to polarize people and create internal conflict (1h9m56s).
• The ultimate goal of these foreign actors is to defeat the US by creating division and hatred among its citizens, rather than through military or economic means (1h10m16s).

Russia And China Are Using Social Media Algorithms Against Us (1h10m22s)

• The algorithm used by TikTok is extremely brutal and has a high variance in the number of views a post receives, with some getting a thousand views and others getting 7 million views, regardless of the number of followers the user has (1h10m40s).
• This algorithm promotes polarizing content, which can lead to division, as it shows extreme views to everyone, while nuanced content is shown to no one (1h11m3s).
• If the goal was to tear the West apart, introducing an app with an extreme algorithm would be an effective strategy, and not caring about owning the app would be a key part of the plan (1h11m19s).
• China controls its algorithms and does not allow foreign actors to influence them, but the US allows foreign companies like TikTok to have a significant influence on its youth (1h11m35s).
• American media companies are not allowed to operate in China, but TikTok has become a dominant force in the US, with kids under 25 spending more time on it than on all broadcast media combined (1h12m1s).
• The primary fuel for the TikTok algorithm is not sex, but rage, as it tries to elicit strong emotions and reactions from users (1h12m14s).
• Meta has discovered that rage is a more effective driver of engagement than sex, and the algorithm prioritizes content that sparks outrage and controversy (1h12m41s).
• The algorithm favors short, provocative content over long, thoughtful conversations, and rewards users who post sensational or divisive material (1h13m8s).
• This can lead to the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories, as seen in the example of RFK Jr's anti-vaccination comments, which are amplified by the algorithm (1h13m10s).
• The algorithm's focus on engagement and interaction can lead to more ads and shareholder value, but also perpetuates a cycle of outrage and division (1h13m44s).
• Social media platforms are being used to spread incendiary content and manipulate public opinion, often by wrapping it in more innocuous content such as dance videos, which can make it go viral and reach a wider audience (1h13m51s).
• This type of manipulation can be used to influence public opinion on various issues, including conflicts in the Middle East, income inequality, and the struggles of young people, and can be done by various entities, including governments and other organizations (1h14m6s).
• The US has a division of the army called SCOPS that is dedicated to spreading pro-American and anti-adversary content across different mediums around the world, but the US is not used to being on the receiving end of this type of manipulation (1h14m41s).
• Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has the ability to track people's relationships, vulnerabilities, and locations, making it a powerful tool for espionage, and it is likely that governments are using this information to their advantage (1h15m25s).
• Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, has testified before Congress about the company's role in spreading misinformation and its impact on young people, but it is likely that he has also used the company's capabilities to aid in counter-terrorism efforts and has used this as leverage to avoid regulation (1h15m13s).
• The use of social media platforms to track and target terrorists has likely aided in drone strikes in countries such as Yemen, and it is possible that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using similar tactics to manipulate public opinion in the US and distract from its own actions, such as a potential invasion of Taiwan (1h15m56s).
• The CCP would be foolish not to be using social media to its advantage in this way, and it is likely that they are using it to spread content that makes Americans angry at each other and distracted from more important issues (1h16m18s).
• A scripted series on Netflix is being produced that explores these themes and scenarios, including the use of social media to manipulate public opinion and aid in counter-terrorism efforts (1h15m0s).
• A bet of $358,000 was made that a certain party would win an election, likely due to the influence of social media manipulation [not explicitly stated in the provided text, but mentioned in the title].

Does Age Matter In This Election? (1h16m31s)

• Age may be a factor in the election, with Trump being older than Biden was when he was elected, but Trump appears more robust than Biden, who seems to have passed his expiration date (1h16m33s).
• The Democratic party is too politically correct and did not want to address Biden's age and health issues, which may reflect poorly on him if Harris loses (1h17m15s).
• Biden did not drop out of the election voluntarily, but was instead forced out by Nancy Pelosi, who told him that the down-ballot would be terrible with him at the top of the ticket (1h17m25s).
• The notion that Biden woke up one day and decided to drop out for the good of America is not true, as politicians are often narcissists who do not want to give up power (1h17m55s).
• Ruth Bader Ginsburg's and Senator Feinstein's refusal to step down despite their age and health issues are examples of narcissism in politics (1h18m4s).
• Running for office requires a tremendous amount of ego and gratification, making it difficult for politicians to not be narcissists (1h18m23s).
• Biden's narcissism may cost the Democratic party the election, as a competitive primary process would have produced a more battle-tested candidate (1h18m32s).
• The primary process is like combat, and candidates who are not tested through debates and media scrutiny may not be prepared for the general election (1h19m0s).
• Examples of candidates who were leading in the polls but failed to perform well in the primary process include Herman Cain, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson (1h19m11s).
• Vice President Harris may have been a stronger candidate if she had been forced to participate in a series of debates, and the Democratic party may have ended up with a different nominee (1h19m35s).
• The Democratic party did itself a disservice by not forcing Biden out of the race earlier, and there will be second-guessing if Harris does not win (1h19m56s).

There's A 1 In 3 Chance Trump Dies During His Time In Office If He Wins (1h20m21s)

• There is a one in three chance that Trump dies in office based on his age and body mass index (BMI) (1h20m24s).
• If Trump were to apply for $300,000 in life insurance, the premium would be $100,000, considering only his age and BMI, without factoring in profits (1h20m36s).
• The high premium is due to the increased risk of mortality associated with Trump's age and BMI, which suggests a significant likelihood of him dying during his term in office (1h20m40s).

Trump And Elon Musk (1h20m44s)

• The partnership between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is seen as a net positive for the Republicans, with Musk's impressive achievements and large platform making him a highly influential figure, especially among young men (1h20m46s).
• Musk's ability to inspire and his aspirational persona, as evident in his ventures such as Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink, have earned him admiration and made him a genius and a risk-taker in the eyes of many (1h21m35s).
• One of Joe Biden's biggest mistakes was not inviting Elon Musk to an EV Summit, which was seen as a huge advantage for Trump and a missed opportunity for Biden to connect with Musk and his supporters (1h22m7s).
• Elon Musk was previously a supporter of Barack Obama and voted for him, but Biden's snub at the EV Summit may have changed Musk's stance, and he is now seen as more aligned with Trump (1h22m31s).
• The potential for an autocracy under Trump's leadership is a concern, as it could lead to the weaponization of government agencies against those who oppose him, making it a calculated risk for individuals and companies to support him (1h22m45s).
• The algebra of supporting Trump is that if he loses, there is little to no risk of retribution, but if he wins, those who opposed him may face consequences, making it a safer bet for some to support him (1h23m39s).
• This calculation is evident in the actions of some individuals, such as a famous morning show host who is considering moving to London if Trump wins, due to concerns about being targeted by the DOJ or other government agencies (1h24m13s).
• Even those who do not support Trump, such as Jamie Dimon, may make public statements in his favor in order to avoid being targeted or to position themselves for potential future opportunities, such as a cabinet position (1h24m41s).

What Happens To America If Trump Wins? (1h25m5s)

• America's strength and resilience as a nation are not dependent on any individual candidate, and it has survived worse situations than the potential presidency of either Trump or Harris (1h25m23s).
• The catastrophizing on both sides of the political spectrum is unwarranted and does not recognize America's history and its ability to endure difficult situations (1h25m42s).
• Certain groups, such as women who want bodily autonomy, may be negatively affected if Trump gets re-elected and appoints more conservative Supreme Court justices, potentially leading to stricter abortion laws (1h26m2s).
• Young people may also be hurt by the increasing national deficit, which can be seen as a tax on future generations, and may lead to high mortgage rates and runaway inflation (1h26m25s).
• The national deficit, currently at $7 trillion, is unsustainable and may have severe economic consequences for young people in the long run (1h26m35s).
• Corporations may benefit in the short term from a Trump presidency, as he has proposed eliminating taxes for certain groups, including those who live abroad (1h27m16s).
• America's global authority and moral standing may be negatively affected by a Trump presidency, making it harder for the country to exert influence on the global stage (1h27m47s).
• However, some policy experts argue that other nations may be more afraid to take actions against America with someone like Trump in office (1h28m2s).

Does Trump Have A Higher Likelihood To End The Wars? (1h28m10s)

• Trump's unpredictability and willingness to make deals may lead to a higher likelihood of ending wars, particularly with Putin, as they share a similar wavelength, although this may not necessarily result in a good deal for Ukraine (1h28m12s).
• The timing of a call between the US and Putin is crucial, and it's best to make the call when the West is willing to go deeper and longer, as the Russians respond to leverage and power (1h28m50s).
• If Trump is in power, Putin may have more leverage in negotiations, whereas a Democratic administration may have more leverage due to the Europeans' willingness to step up (1h29m12s).
• The Middle East conflict is complex, and there's a need to end the war, but a bad peace is not the answer, and sometimes a good war is necessary to achieve sustainable peace (1h29m55s).
• Israel's actions in the Middle East, such as eliminating terrorists and weakening Hamas, may lead to a more sustainable peace, and the normalization of relations between Israel and other nations, like Saudi Arabia, could create a more effective Iron Dome (1h30m21s).
• The US has a knee-jerk reaction to peace, but it's essential to consider the long-term consequences and the potential for creating more terrorists than are being killed (1h30m52s).
• The aftermath of the war will likely involve generational hate and resentment, and the algorithms used in social media may contribute to creating more terrorists (1h32m26s).

Why Scott Is Writing A Book About Men (1h32m34s)

• A book is being written about men, focusing on struggling young men who are not getting the recognition they deserve as a special interest group (1h32m36s).
• The issue of struggling young men is significant, with four out of five people who kill themselves in the US being men, and a man becoming eight times more likely to kill himself after divorce (1h33m28s).
• Many men feel useless and worthless, which are common themes in suicide notes, and a new code of masculinity is needed to address this issue (1h33m46s).
• This code can be derived from various sources such as the military, religion, friends, family, and work, and it's essential to recreate and articulate a code around masculinity in the modern age (1h33m56s).
• The goal is to provide a sense of purpose and belonging for young men, which is currently lacking in many cases (1h33m59s).
• Despite being a self-described "glass half empty" person who struggles with anger and depression, there is optimism about the opportunities and agency that young people have, as well as the growing recognition of the issues faced by young men (1h34m26s).
• The economy, especially in America, tends to be improving, and people are becoming more socially conscious, which contributes to the optimism (1h34m49s).
• There is a growing number of emails from mothers worried about their sons, indicating a growing concern for the well-being of young men (1h35m9s).
• The conversation around men's issues is becoming more productive, with the help of people like Richard Reeves and Jordan Peterson, who have highlighted the severity of the problem (1h35m47s).
• Even some feminists recognize that the issues faced by men cannot be ignored and that helping men is essential for creating a society where women can flourish (1h36m4s).
• There is a need for empathy, resources, and a productive conversation to address the issues faced by young men, and there is optimism that this conversation is becoming more productive (1h37m0s).

Scott's Thoughts On The Pornography Debate (1h37m3s)

• A conversation about the prevalence of pornography among young people, particularly men, has been ongoing, with the revenue and profit of companies like Only Fans being tremendous, indicating a booming industry. (1h37m4s)
• The decline of sex amongst young men, with them having sex later and less often, has contributed to the growth of the pornography industry, making it harder for them to find a partner. (1h37m30s)
• Women, as well as men, can get addicted to pornography, which was not mentioned in a previous debate, and some women have spoken publicly about their struggles with pornography addiction. (1h37m45s)
• The question of whether it is okay for a young person to watch pornography is raised, with the suggestion that moderation is key, and it is not necessarily an evil, but rather similar to drinking or consuming THC. (1h38m37s)
• The concern is that the most talented and resourceful companies in history are trying to convince young men that they can have a reasonable simulation of life on a screen with an algorithm, eliminating the need for friends and social interactions. (1h39m8s)
• This can lead to young men avoiding the challenges and humiliations of real-life social interactions, such as making friends, going on dates, and getting a job, and instead opting for online communities like Reddit and Discord. (1h39m21s)
• The "manosphere" is criticized for promoting get-rich-quick schemes, such as crypto courses, as a way to make money and achieve success without putting in the effort and endurance required in real life. (1h39m58s)
• The rejection of online dating and the difficulty of approaching women and expressing romantic interest in a safe manner is discussed, highlighting that building a connection takes time, much like in romantic comedies, which are typically 2 hours long, not 15 minutes (1h40m19s).
• Consuming porn can negatively impact one's desire to work out, be attractive, and engage in real-life relationships, as it creates unrealistic expectations and can lead to a loss of motivation and "mojo" (1h40m39s).
• The importance of having a strong drive to have sex is emphasized, as it can be a significant motivator in life, such as graduating from college or pursuing relationships (1h41m38s).
• Advice is given to young men to "be the guy you'd want to have sex with," which includes getting one's life together, having a plan, working out, dressing well, and being able to make a woman laugh (1h42m20s).
• Young men are also encouraged to take risks, endure rejection, and not be discouraged by it, as it is a normal part of the dating process (1h42m36s).
• Advice is given to young women to consider that every song and piece of social media may be telling them to have higher standards, but this can lead to loneliness, and it's essential to be open to relationships and not dismiss potential partners too quickly (1h42m47s).
• It is noted that many married couples who have been together for over 30 years report that one partner was initially more interested than the other, and men are often less choosy than women due to the lower risks associated with sex (1h43m16s).
• Men need an environment to demonstrate excellence and showcase their qualities to potential partners (1h43m33s).
• A man's opportunity to demonstrate excellence is limited in today's society, as they are not in school and many are not working or socializing as much as previous generations (1h43m47s).
• Young people are not drinking as much as they used to, but drinking can facilitate togetherness and social bonding (1h43m53s).
• It is advised that young people should go out, drink more, and make a series of bad decisions, as this can lead to personal growth and potentially positive outcomes (1h44m7s).
• There is a need for more togetherness, sex, and random encounters among young people, as this can help to prevent social isolation and loneliness (1h44m13s).
• Young men, in particular, are at risk of becoming socially isolated and lonely, which can negatively impact their lives and make them poor citizens (1h44m31s).
• When women do not have a romantic relationship, they often reinvest in their work and friendships, whereas men tend to withdraw and isolate themselves (1h44m38s).
• Excessive consumption of substances like alcohol and marijuana, as well as excessive porn consumption, can negatively impact one's life and relationships (1h44m51s).
• It is essential to establish a deep, meaningful relationship with someone, which can start with sex, and this is often a crucial aspect of building a family and a fulfilling life (1h45m17s).

The Guest's Last Question (1h45m25s)

• The importance of hiring the right people is highlighted as the single most important thing in building a business, with the definition of a company being a group of people, and this is the first responsibility and job that any entrepreneur has and should focus on (1h45m39s).
• About 80% of the team has been hired from LinkedIn, which is considered a platform that can give diversity of candidates with a lot of information and data on their profiles (1h46m0s).
• A free job ad post for entrepreneurs is offered on LinkedIn, which can be accessed by going to linkedin.com/doac (1h46m15s).
• The question of what people are scared about with AI and the future is raised, with potential fears including AI becoming sentient and deciding to kill humans, misinformation, polarization, weaponization of elections, and income inequality (1h46m50s).
• However, the biggest threat of AI is considered to be loneliness, as it may create fake relationships that reduce the desire to make real friends and take real risks (1h47m10s).
• The impact of technology on human desires is discussed, with the observation that it has made desires friction-free and low-calorie, but not necessarily fulfilling, as seen in social networking, dating apps, and pornography (1h48m15s).
• The difficulty of having a real relationship with a partner is compared to the ease of having a relationship with AI, which can be seen as a threat to human connection and intimacy (1h48m43s).
• The statistics of men not having friends are mentioned, with one in seven men not having a single friend and one in four men not being able to name a best friend (1h48m1s).
• The world is heading towards a reality where people settle for a substitute for real-life experiences and relationships, which is a cause for concern (1h49m0s).
• Real-life moments with partners, friends, family, and children are irreplaceable, and anything else is just a substitute (1h49m11s).
• Sequestering from others can lead to increased susceptibility to conspiracy theories and decreased empathy (1h49m38s).
• The biggest threat to society is loneliness, which is being exacerbated by tech companies that offer low-cost substitutes for real-life relationships and experiences (1h49m55s).
• There is value in the friction and hard work that comes with real-life relationships and experiences, such as rejection and perseverance (1h50m8s).
• Technology is offering substitutes for this friction, but it's essential to recognize the value in the hard work and challenges that come with real-life experiences (1h50m30s).
• The only things that can be promised to young people are a certain amount of joy and tragedy in their lives, and that anything wonderful will be hard to achieve (1h50m42s).
• A good relationship, making money, and anything rewarding in life will require hard work and perseverance (1h50m59s).
• Scott's latest book, "The Algebra of Wealth," has been endorsed by the host, who is a big fan of the book (1h51m11s).
• Scott's publisher decides on the blurbs for his books, and he was unaware that the host was on the cover of his latest book (1h51m25s).
• Scott's best blurb is from Elon Musk, who called him an "insufferable numbskull" (1h51m35s).
• Scott has made a prediction about the American election, and the host is looking forward to discussing it further (1h51m52s).
• The host praises Scott as a wise and remarkable communicator and storyteller (1h51m56s).
• Scott's podcast and the Pivot podcast are recommended for those who want to hear more from him (1h52m7s).
• A surprise birthday celebration took place, with the birthday person being 50 years old and their birthday being on the upcoming Sunday (1h52m53s).
• The Diary of a CEO has a tradition where guests leave a question at the end of their conversation, and these questions have been turned into conversation cards that can be played at home (1h53m32s).
• The conversation cards feature a question on one side and a QR code on the back that links to the guest who answered the question, allowing users to watch the conversation (1h53m51s).
• A brand new, updated version of the conversation cards (version two) has been released and is available at Theonconversationcards.com (1h54m6s).
• The conversation cards have sold out twice instantly, so it is recommended to act quickly to get a limited edition set (1h54m14s).