“The 2024 US Elections — Where We Are Now,” Professor David Brady

The 2016 and 2020 US Elections and Polling Accuracy

• The 2016 US general election saw Clinton win the popular vote by 2.1 points, contrary to polls that predicted a larger margin, indicating a bias in polling data (30s).
• In the 2020 US general election, polls predicted Biden would win by 7 points, but he actually won by 4.4 points, showing that the bias in polling data was not fixed (1m11s).
• Current polls, such as the Harris poll, show a close race between candidates, highlighting the ongoing issue of polling accuracy (1m33s).
• To address the systematic error in polling data, a project involving Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale universities was initiated, featuring the largest single poll ever conducted with 120,000 participants (2m2s).
• The project includes a panel study, tracking the same individuals over time, with six polls conducted so far and six more planned before the election (2m5s).
• To improve polling accuracy, the project also uses voter registration data to verify participants' voting history and has increased the number of rural voters in the sample (2m33s).
• The project includes four separate polls, each with 7,500 participants, conducted by Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale universities, as well as a combined joint poll (3m22s).

Political Party Dynamics and Realignment

• Historical data from Gallup polls shows that the Democratic Party was the dominant party in the US from 1937 to the 1980s, but the Republican Party gained ground during the Reagan era (3m50s).
• The 1980s saw a shift in the parties' advantages, with the Democrats no longer having an edge in times of economic crisis, and the Republican Party gaining ground on cultural issues (4m22s).
• The Republican party used to be more pro-choice than Democrats until the time of Reagan, after which the parties switched stances, with Democrats becoming more conservative and Republicans becoming more liberal, but this has since changed, with the parties becoming more ideologically sorted (4m52s).
• In 1980, the Democratic party was liberal with many moderates and some conservatives, while the Republican party was more heterogeneous with conservatives, moderates, and some liberals (5m22s).
• With the rise of Reagan, liberals moved away from the Republican party and into the Democratic party, and vice versa, resulting in the Democratic party becoming more liberal and the Republican party becoming more conservative (5m42s).
• By 2024, the Democratic party is a liberal party with more moderates, while the Republican party is overwhelmingly conservative with about 16-18% moderates (6m5s).
• Independents have remained moderate and less concerned about politics, with less knowledge about politics and lower voting likelihood (6m18s).
• The sorting of parties by ideology has made elections closer, harder to compromise, and harder to predict (6m38s).

Economic Models and Voter Perceptions

• Historically, economic models such as the Ray Fair model could predict election outcomes based on real GDP growth, GDP deflator growth, and good news quarters, with voters rewarding the incumbent president's party when the economy is doing well (6m53s).
• However, the 2012 and 2016 elections showed that economic models are no longer reliable, as voters' perceptions of the economy have become increasingly partisan, with Democrats and Republicans having vastly different views on the economy's performance (8m17s).
• Predictive models for elections are no longer reliable, making it more challenging to forecast outcomes (9m21s).
• There is a significant divide in perceptions of the economy between Democrats and Republicans, with 60% of Democrats thinking the economy is excellent or good, and 62% of Republicans thinking it's poor (9m47s).

Political Polarization and Divisiveness

• Polarization and divisiveness have worsened, extending to perceptions of the parties, with Democrats and Republicans holding misconceptions about each other's demographics and characteristics (10m3s).
• A significant percentage of people would not be pleased if their child married someone from the opposing party (10m42s).

The 2024 Presidential Race and Polling Updates

• Polls from the Stanford Arizona State survey show that the state of the presidential race is uncertain, with Biden and Trump initially neck and neck, but Trump gaining a 2-3 point lead after a debate (11m41s).
• When Harris enters the race, she initially performs similarly to Biden but eventually gains ground, particularly among Democrats who had previously considered third-party candidates or were undecided (12m21s).
• The current polls, including those from Real Clear Politics and 538, show Harris ahead, but the election is still uncertain (13m5s).
• The election is seen as undesirable by many Americans, with a significant percentage not wishing to see a Trump versus Biden matchup (13m30s).
• The number of "double haters" who did not want either Biden or Trump to run decreased after Harris' candidacy, making the race tighter and more viable (14m13s).
• A separate poll of 30,000 people before, during, and after the debates showed that 30% of Democrats thought Biden would win the debate, but there was a 16% drop in people who thought he actually won (15m6s).
• The same poll showed that people thought Trump won the first debate and Harris won the second debate, but winning the debate did not significantly change voting intentions (15m30s).
• Among Democrats, if Biden lost the debate, it did not lead to a significant shift in voting intentions towards Trump, and similarly, Harris' win did not lead to a significant shift away from Trump (15m50s).
• The debates had little impact on changing people's minds, with very little movement in the polls (16m15s).
• However, the first debate did lead to a slight increase in people thinking Biden was too old, which ultimately hurt his campaign (16m36s).
• After the first debate, there was also a slight increase in people thinking Trump was too old (16m58s).

Key Issues and Candidate Performance

• In terms of issues, Harris has an advantage over Trump on abortion, while Trump has an advantage over Harris on the economy, and immigration is a key issue that will be discussed further (17m39s).
• Harris performs better than Biden on handling issues, but still faces challenges on the economy and immigration (18m14s).
• In the 2024 US elections, Harris is seen as less able to deal with immigration compared to Trump, which could impact the polls if Trump's vote is underestimated (18m23s).

Voter Demographics and Coalition Analysis

• There are three main places to get votes: groups that voted for Biden in 2020, Republicans who voted for Biden, and Independents who voted for Biden (19m4s).
• In 2020, 95.7% of Democrats voted for Biden, while 5.2% of Republicans voted for Biden, and Biden was close among Independents (19m9s).
• In 2024, Harris is carrying 95.1% of Democrats and getting a few more votes from Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats, but not as much as Biden, and she's down 9-10 points among Independents (19m42s).
• The most important issues for Americans are inflation, jobs in the economy, democracy, and abortion, with inflation being the top issue for Democrats (20m29s).
• If Democrats are concerned about inflation, Harris has 89% support, but if they're concerned about jobs in the economy, democracy, or abortion, her support increases to 98% or 100% (21m0s).
• The only issue where Harris gets votes from Republicans is on abortion, with 6% of Republicans saying it's the most important issue, giving her an additional 14% of support (21m46s).
• Among Independents, Harris loses support on inflation and immigration but gains on democracy and abortion, resulting in a slight net gain for Trump on issues (22m10s).
• There are four major gaps in American politics: gender, age, race, and education, which can impact voting patterns (22m52s).
• The Biden Coalition in 2020 had varying gaps in support among different demographics, with Biden winning men by a certain margin and women by another margin (23m10s).
• In the 2024 election, Harris appears to have an advantage over Biden among women, with a gap of around 13-14% (23m36s).
• Harris is doing slightly less well than Biden among different age groups, including under 30, 30-44, and 45-64, although the differences are within the margin of error (23m57s).
• Harris has a 60-point gap among white voters, with 60% supporting her, but this gap is less than Biden's gap among black voters (24m31s).
• Among black voters, Harris has a 60-point gap, with 70% supporting her, but this is less than Biden's gap (24m39s).
• The percentage of African-American males voting for Trump is around 12-14%, which is higher than in previous elections (25m5s).
• The Hispanic gap, which was big in Hillary's favor, dropped in 2020, particularly in Miami Dade and along the Texas border, but has grown slightly in the 2024 election (25m21s).
• There is a slight gain in the Asian-American vote for Harris (25m54s).
• The gap in education has shifted, with Republicans now winning the high school or less vote, while Democrats are winning the college graduate and college plus votes (26m1s).
• The gap among high school or less voters is around 12-13 points in favor of Republicans, while the gap among college plus voters is in favor of Harris (26m35s).

Polling Methodology and Predictive Modeling

• The analysis is based on a multi-level regression with poststratification, an MRP model with three stages, estimating the likelihood of voting conditional upon voting (27m28s).
• The current best estimate of the 2024 US election is based on a table that can be looked up and analyzed, showing the predicted support for Harrison Trump among major party voters (27m40s).

Key States and Electoral College Projections

• The states that matter in the election are Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with thousands of voters polled in each state (28m17s).
• The current poll results show Harris up by 5 points in Nevada, a dead tie between Harris and Trump in Arizona, Trump up by 1 point in North Carolina, Harris up by 1 point in Pennsylvania, Trump up by 1 point in Georgia, and Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin by 3 points or more (28m50s).
• The only thing that matters in the election is the Electoral College, and what happens there will determine the outcome (29m36s).
• Scenario number one is that the polls are underestimating Trump's support, and if they are, he will win most of the states he did in 2016 and win the election 306 to 232 (29m45s).
• The narrowest possible scenario is that Harris holds the blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and goes into the election with 269 votes, while Trump has 268 votes (30m25s).
• In this scenario, if Trump carries the second district in Nebraska, the election will be tied, and the House of Representatives will decide the outcome, with each state getting one vote (31m31s).
• The likely outcome is that Trump will take Arizona and Georgia, while Michigan and Wisconsin will go to Harris (32m17s).
• Key states in the 2024 US elections are North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, with Nevada being a crucial swing state that has consistently voted for Democrats, including Hillary Clinton. (32m37s)
• If Harris loses Nevada, she is likely to lose Pennsylvania as well, making the outcome of these states critical to the election. (32m45s)

Ground Game and Campaign Strategies

• The Democrats have a better ground game, with more people on the ground in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, compared to the Republicans, who have been relying on a firm to manage their ground game. (33m12s)
• The Republicans have recently started shipping in volunteers, but the effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain, especially given that past efforts by Californians to influence voters in other states have not been successful. (33m32s)
• Research from 2016 and 2020 shows that Californians who traveled to other states to try to convince people to vote for their preferred candidate did not have a significant impact. (33m43s)
• In North Carolina, areas that were heavily affected by flooding and electricity outages are also heavily Republican, which could impact voter turnout in these areas. (34m17s)
• The election in North Carolina is expected to be very close, with a margin of less than 1% of the vote, making factors such as voter turnout and external events critical to the outcome. (34m43s)

Persuadable Voters and Election Forecasting

• The concept of "persuadables" refers to voters who are open to considering different candidates, and research has shown that this group is primarily composed of moderates and independents who are less likely to vote. (35m11s)
• The number of persuadables has been declining, with 40.1% of voters definitely supporting Harris, 39.5% definitely supporting Trump, and smaller percentages leaning towards or maybe supporting each candidate. (35m42s)
• Predicting the behavior of persuadables is challenging, even when using advanced polling techniques, making it difficult to forecast the outcome of the election. (36m14s)

Market-Based Predictions and Cryptocurrency Betting

• The cryptocurrency market, PolyMarket, allows people to bet on the outcome of the election, with a recent surge in bets on Trump attributed to a Republican donor who invested $45 million. (36m36s)
• The 2024 US elections can be viewed as a market where people can instantly bet on the outcome of debates or other events, with some advantages over traditional polls, such as the ability to react quickly to new information (37m10s).
• Goldman Sachs has created a "Trump basket" and a "Harris basket" of stocks to track the market's reaction to the candidates, and these baskets did not see a significant change after a recent debate, but the Trump basket has been going up in recent days (37m35s).
• The market's reaction can be a more accurate predictor of the election outcome than traditional polls, and Goldman Sachs' baskets are considered more reliable than other market-based predictors like Poly Market (38m29s).

Early Voting and Election Day Trends

• The 2024 elections are expected to see a similar phenomenon to 2020, where Democrats vote early or by mail, while Republicans vote on Election Day, which can lead to a "red" Election Day and a potential delay in determining the winner (38m58s).
• Some states have already started voting, and in a recent Stanford poll, 512 people who had already voted were asked how they voted, with Harris winning by 15 points among those who had already cast their ballots (39m39s).
• The media and polling organizations are aware of the potential for a delay in determining the winner and have factored this into their reporting, but it may still take some time to determine the outcome of the election (40m15s).
• Both parties are prepared to challenge the vote and have lawyers ready to go, which could lead to a prolonged and contentious process (40m28s).

Voter Hesitancy and Election Integrity

• The outcome of the election will likely depend on the results in a few key states, with seven states being considered particularly important (40m51s).
• Some people may be hesitant to reveal their voting intentions due to concerns about their employer or others finding out, which can affect the accuracy of polls, particularly in the middle of the country (41m20s).
• There is limited evidence to support the idea that people are hesitant to reveal their true voting intentions, and it's possible that this phenomenon occurs in both directions, affecting both Trump and non-Trump voters (41m55s).
• The possibility of election fraud, such as ballot stuffing, can be difficult to account for in polls, and people are unlikely to admit to such actions (42m33s).
• Justin Grimmer, a researcher at Stanford, has developed statistical methods to address these issues, but even these approaches have limitations (43m6s).
• The rise of mail-in ballots poses challenges for polling, as it's difficult to track what happens to these ballots once they're sent out, and there's a risk that they could be tampered with or filled out by someone other than the intended voter (43m23s).

External Influences and Social Factors

• Elon Musk's influence on the election is uncertain, but research suggests that celebrity endorsements, in general, have a limited impact on voter behavior (44m27s).
• A study on Taylor Swift's endorsement found no evidence that it affected turnout among young people, suggesting that celebrity endorsements may not be as influential as previously thought (44m34s).
• A researcher from Russia shared their experience using a votes flow model to compare elections and detect potential corruption, highlighting the importance of analyzing data at the smallest electoral regions (45m13s).
• In the 2024 US election, one candidate will be running in three different elections, allowing for the use of voter flow models to analyze how people change their behavior statistically from one voting region to another (45m48s).

Voter Flow Models and Election Analysis

• Researchers have studied these kinds of models, but in this particular case, they verified the 2020 vote and the 2024 vote, tracking the same people over the election cycle to see exactly what's happening to voters and who's changing (46m10s).
• The Bradley effect, which refers to the phenomenon where people may not admit to not voting for a candidate from a minority group, is not expected to be a significant factor in the 2024 election, as researchers have found very little evidence of this effect in their analysis (47m1s).

The Bradley Effect and Racial Bias in Voting

• The Bradley effect was first observed in the 1982 election between Tom Bradley, an African-American mayor of Los Angeles, and Duke Magan, where face-to-face interviews may have influenced people's responses (47m11s).

Public Safety, Gun Control, and the Electoral System

• Public safety and gun control are not more prominent issues in the 2024 election because they are highly polarized and sorted by public opinion, with different states having different rules and attitudes towards gun control (48m31s).
• Gun control is a complex issue with multiple problems, including suicide, violent death, and terrorism, and politicians may not win many votes by taking a strong stance on the issue (49m33s).
• The American electoral system, where different states have different rules and voting systems, can make it difficult to address issues like gun control, unlike in European systems where everyone votes on one day (49m46s).
• Australia is cited as an example of a country that has successfully implemented gun control measures, including buying back guns and passing legislation (50m1s).
• The American system of 50 states with checks and balances is unlikely to change significantly in the short run, despite a decrease in gun violence rates (50m8s).

Senate and House Projections

• Based on models, the probability of the Senate going Republican is about 7%, with West Virginia likely to go Republican after Senator Joe Manchin's retirement, and Montana being the next most likely state to switch (50m29s).
• The Senate is predicted to be closely divided, with a possible outcome of 51 Republicans to 49 Democrats, with key seats in Ohio, Nevada, and the Upper Midwest being closely contested (50m50s).
• The House of Representatives is predicted to be 65-65% Democrat, with competitive seats in New York and California trending Democratic (51m12s).

Impact of Polls and Voter Turnout

• The impact of polls on actual voter turnout and decisions is a complex question with mixed findings, but it is possible that polls could have some effect on voter behavior (52m3s).
• The presence of Donald Trump in the election is likely to mask any potential impact of polls on voter turnout, as he has been shown to be a significant turnout machine for both Republican and Democratic voters (52m35s).
• The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout in an American election since the early 20th century, and the 2022 election had the highest Congressional turnout since 1910 (52m43s).