Trump’s 2024 Election Win — and What’s Next | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Trump's Re-Election and Political Landscape

• President Trump was re-elected in the US presidential election, winning both the electoral and popular votes, with a close margin of 51-49, indicating that half of Americans voted against him (25s).
• The popular vote win creates more legitimacy for Trump's presidency, and the fact that there was no significant internal or external interference in the election is notable (1m1s).
• Unlike in 2020, Trump did not challenge the legitimacy of the outcome, and Democrats, including Kamala Harris, conceded quickly, recognizing Trump as the president (1m24s).
• The Republicans have taken the Senate, have a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and are likely to take the House, allowing the Trump Administration to pursue its agenda on tariffs, taxes, immigration, and other issues (2m3s).
• Americans voted on the direction of the country, with over 70% disagreeing with the current direction, making it difficult for the incumbent to win (3m7s).
• Vice President Kamala Harris's inability to articulate what she would do differently from the Biden Administration was seen as a significant issue in her campaign (3m46s).
• Harris's response to the question of what she would do differently from Biden was seen as the worst possible answer, and she was unable to recover from it (3m51s).
• Harris did move some of her policies in a more centrist direction but failed to explain or disassociate herself from previous policies (4m11s).
• Many people felt that Harris did not represent change, despite being younger and different, as they believed her policies were similar to the existing ones, leading to dissatisfaction with the United States' direction (4m19s).
• Every developed democracy that had an election this year voted against their incumbents, with Canada likely to follow suit and remove Trudeau, while developing countries like India and South Africa have also seen changes in their governments (4m38s).
• Mexico is the only notable country that had an election this year and returned the same party, with the Moren party and AMLO still seen as outsiders against the existing power of oligarchs and business (5m3s).
• The global trend of voting against incumbents, combined with high inflation, immigration issues, and disinformation, contributed to Trump's expected win in the 2024 election (5m36s).

Disinformation and the Media Landscape

• The key issues driving the election, in descending order of importance, were inflation, immigration, and disinformation, which have been seen in elections around the world this year (7m16s).
• Disinformation has made it challenging to have a national debate on policies and issues, with many people believing false information about the inflation rate and unemployment (6m41s).
• The spread of disinformation has led to fractured narratives and truths that don't align with reality or accuracy, with statements like Elon Musk's "you are the media now" contributing to this issue (7m48s).
• Trump views mainstream media, including CNN, MSNBC, and Fox, as "fake news" because they do not align with his ideology, and instead considers Twitter X and citizen journalists as "real news" (8m40s).
• Mainstream media has issues, such as being overly focused on their own interests, clicks, and news, and being more politicized, but at least their journalists have expertise and training (9m21s).
• Citizen journalists, on the other hand, tend to have stronger biases, lack professional training, and often fail to properly cite sources and provide accurate information (10m27s).
• Many verified citizen journalists on social media are actually bots, anonymous, or bad actors who spread disinformation for their own purposes (10m57s).
• The spread of misinformation is a significant concern, as many educated people in the US believe false information about the political system, such as the claim that large numbers of non-citizens vote in the US (11m33s).
• This misinformation is often promoted by influential figures, such as Elon Musk, who has actively worked to spread the lie about non-citizen voting (12m15s).
• The spread of misinformation can have serious consequences, such as the false claim that Trump called for Liz Cheney to be executed, which was taken out of context and spread by many Democrats and Harris supporters (12m30s).
• The use of information in service of a political agenda is damaging to democracies, creating an unsustainable trajectory where people can no longer distinguish truth from fiction (13m21s).
• This environment is fueled by the abundance of information available, with analysts like those at Eurasia Group making up a tiny fraction of the information people digest, particularly in the run-up to a major election (14m41s).
• The lack of trust in media, elites, and institutions is a result of this environment, making it a deeply dangerous place to live in (15m22s).

Elon Musk's Influence and US-China Relations

• Elon Musk's potential purchase of Truth Media was discussed, with speculation that it could happen, although it's unclear what it would mean if it did (15m33s).
• It's unlikely that Donald Trump would be able to continue owning and posting on Truth Media as president, given the unprecedented nature of the situation and the potential implications for the rule of law (15m42s).
• Elon Musk's $75 million investment in favor of Trump is seen as a smart strategic political bet, potentially paying off better than any other made by a billionaire or oligarch in the United States (16m22s).
• Musk's support for Trump is believed to have been influenced by Joe Biden's decision not to invite him to the electric vehicle summit, reportedly due to Tesla being a union shop (16m42s).
• Elon Musk is in a unique position to help formulate and distribute the values of the United States, given his hundreds of millions of followers and his relationship with the President of the United States (17m20s).
• Elon Musk has strong business interests in China, including developing artificial intelligence with Chinese scientists and manufacturing and selling Tesla vehicles in the Chinese market (18m32s).
• Elon Musk would not want a decoupling between the US and China, and he may have a lot of influence over US tech policy, especially since Trump did not have a technology policy in his first term (18m55s).
• Elon Musk may be able to help determine who is appointed to key technology positions under Trump and what kind of regulations, subsidies, and stimulus will be enacted by a Trump Administration for technology (19m26s).
• Elon Musk's own companies may benefit from a Trump Administration's technology policies, and he may be able to facilitate a more functional relationship between the US and China in advanced technologies (19m41s).
• Trump has a strong view on wanting to enact stronger tariffs on China, and Elon Musk may be able to help facilitate a deal on this issue with China, which is facing serious economic challenges (20m7s).
• Trump's America First policy means more capital and jobs in the United States, and he wants to use the power of the dollar and the size of the American market to get other countries to nearshore with the Americans (20m23s).
• Trump has said he wants to see 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports, and it is untested whether Elon Musk will be able to help facilitate a deal on this issue with China (20m55s).
• Elon Musk's potential to help China with a specific proposition could make him a highly influential person globally, but if he fails, he may face significant challenges in his business dealings in China (21m20s).
• The dynamics between Elon Musk, the US, and China will be an interesting development to watch, with many moving pieces in the global geopolitical landscape (22m1s).

Trump's Foreign Policy: Ukraine and Russia

• Following Trump's election win, Zelenskyy reached out to him and was complimentary, but the future of US foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, remains uncertain (22m21s).
• Zelenskyy is a skilled communicator who has been actively promoting his cause, and Trump has acknowledged his efforts, but Trump also believes the US is spending too much on Ukraine (22m41s).
• Trump has expressed his desire to end the war in Ukraine, claiming he can do so quickly, and is likely to call Zelenskyy and Putin to propose a freeze on the conflict and subsequent negotiations (23m37s).
• Trump's plan involves Russia occupying the territory it currently holds, but ceasing to bomb the rest of Ukraine, and Ukraine accepting the situation, with the US potentially cutting off aid to Ukraine or imposing more sanctions on Russia if the proposal is not accepted (24m20s).
• The outcome of Trump's proposed plan is uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether Zelenskyy will be willing to accept the terms (24m56s).
• In a Trump administration, it would be difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a limited ceasefire or a freezing of the conflict, as saying yes could lead to him losing power and undermining his position with many Ukrainians who have been fighting against the Russians (25m10s).
• If Ukraine says no to a ceasefire, it would be easier for them to do so, but if they say yes, it could lead to Putin demanding more concessions, such as Ukraine being disarmed and not joining NATO (25m35s).
• Trump may not consult with Europeans before contacting the Russians, and even if he does, he may not worry about coordinating a united policy with them, unlike Biden who would not negotiate with Putin without the Ukrainians and Europeans being on board (26m10s).
• The Europeans may need to take a more united front in response to Trump's actions, but it is unclear whether they will be able to do so, especially with some leaders like Victor Orban in Hungary being more inclined to work with Trump (27m8s).
• The outcome of the German elections and the stance of the new German Chancellor could also impact the European response to Trump's policies, as well as the popularity of leaders like Georgia Maloney in Italy who may shift their support away from Ukraine and towards Russia (27m36s).
• The fragmentation of European support for Ukraine could have significant consequences for frontline states in Europe that see Russia as an existential threat, such as Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordic states (28m13s).
• European leaders are highly concerned about the potential consequences of Trump's actions and the impact on their relationships with the US and Russia, with this issue being their top priority (28m43s).

Trump's Foreign Policy: Israel and the Middle East

• A recent Jerusalem Post survey showed that over 60% of Israelis prefer Trump, while 12% prefer Harris, indicating a significant gap in support for the US ally, largely due to Trump's strong pro-Israel stance during his presidency, including the Abraham Accords and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory (29m24s).
• Trump's first trip as president was to the Middle East, visiting Saudi Arabia and Israel, which has contributed to his strong relationship with Israel and its leaders (30m4s).
• There is still room for Biden to negotiate a settlement between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially within the next two weeks, as both sides are close to an agreement (30m22s).
• The Israelis, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, are not looking to destroy Hezbollah but rather to push them back and stop the fighting, as a larger conflict would cause significant damage to the Israeli economy (30m47s).
• Netanyahu has already taken steps to degrade Hezbollah's leadership and military infrastructure, which could be seen as a narrow win (31m11s).
• The situation in Gaza is different, with no expected change in Israel's policy, and the humanitarian crisis for Palestinians living in Gaza is likely to worsen, especially with the Israeli Knesset voting to declare UNRWA, the UN agency responsible for infrastructure and humanitarian aid, as illegal (31m26s).
• The potential for building infrastructure and governance in Gaza is being unwound, and there is no move towards a two-state solution or independent governance for the Palestinians (32m5s).
• Iran is a significant question, with Trump criticizing Biden for constraining Israel's response to Iranian strikes, and Jared Kushner seeing this as an opportunity for Israel to rid itself of the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all (32m27s).
• There is a big question about whether Trump will get the US and Israel to take action against Iran while Biden is still president or if he will wait until he is president to coordinate a military response (33m28s).
• The likelihood of an expanded military confrontation between the US and Iran is relatively high, and Trump may believe that the Iranians are a "paper tiger" that can be easily taken care of (33m52s).
• Trump previously ordered the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani, and the Iranian response was minimal, leading some to believe that Trump wanted to take even harder action against Iran (34m2s).
• The Iranians have been involved in interfering in the US election and have tried to assassinate Trump and Mike Pompeo, which could lead to a Trump administration feeling the need to "hit the Iranians back pretty hard" (34m44s).
• If the US were to take action against Iran, it could lead to higher oil prices due to Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil from being transited globally (35m25s).

Trump's Potential Second Administration and Cabinet

• It is unlikely that Mark Milley, the former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be appointed to Trump's cabinet, as he has recently called Trump a "fascist" (35m56s).
• Many people who were in the previous Trump administration now consider Trump an enemy, and it is mutual, which could lead to Trump going after them as president (36m10s).
• Trump may hold a grudge against people he thought were loyal but turned against him, and may launch investigations or influence media to go after them (36m36s).
• Trump's cabinet is likely to consist of "adults" who are capable of doing their job but will not be independent, as Trump wants to maintain control (37m0s).
• In a potential second Trump administration, loyalty will be a crucial factor in selecting cabinet members, unlike in the first term when Rex Tillerson was appointed as Secretary of State despite not being aligned with Trump's America First agenda (37m14s).
• Howard Lutnick, who was involved in Trump's campaign and has spent a lot of time with him, may have a good chance of becoming the Secretary of Treasury (37m59s).
• Linda McMahon, a close friend of Trump's and former CEO of the World Wrestling Federation, may be appointed as the Secretary of Commerce (38m16s).
• Several individuals are being considered for the Secretary of State position, including Bill Hagerty, a former ambassador to Japan, and Rick Grenell, the former acting head of National Intelligence and Ambassador to Germany (38m29s).
• Mike Waltz, a member of Congress, is also being considered for a potential role, possibly as Secretary of Defense (39m16s).
• Mike Pompeo, who was slow to endorse Trump, may not be considered for a role due to loyalty concerns (39m22s).
• The Department of Justice, FBI, and IRS may be politicized or weaponized in a second Trump term, with loyalty being a key factor in selecting the Attorney General (39m43s).
• Bill Barr, who was a conservative but not a Trump loyalist, may not be acceptable as Attorney General in a second Trump term (39m54s).
• JD Vance, who was selected as VP, may not have as much power as expected, as Trump will not tolerate someone with their own star power working for him (40m21s).
• In a second Trump administration, there may be multiple centers of power competing for influence in areas that Trump is not particularly interested in (40m46s).

The Global Order and US Foreign Policy Under Trump

• A second Trump administration would look very different from the first one, with the US continuing to be the most powerful country globally, having the reserve currency, the most powerful military, producing the most energy, and dominating the field of artificial intelligence (40m59s).
• Despite the US's powerful position, the global order is in deep disarray due to an absence of global leadership, which will be felt more strongly in a Trump "America First" administration (41m48s).
• Many US allies share interests and values, including a commitment to democracy, rule of law, multilateral architecture, collective security, and free trade, but the recent election suggests that the American people and the president-elect do not accept these values (42m11s).
• US allies must recognize that they may still have shared interests with the US but no longer share values, and must adapt to this new reality (43m8s).
• Trump's view on global politics is centered on deal-making, regardless of a country's internal political system, and he prefers to make deals unilaterally rather than in a multilateral setting (43m37s).
• The absence of global leadership and the rejection of multilateralism by the US will lead to increased uncertainty, volatility, and danger in the coming years (44m27s).
• The challenges facing the world are increasingly global and systemic, requiring collective action and leadership, but the US is unlikely to provide this leadership under a second Trump administration (44m11s).