Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225

Intro (0s)

• Markus Villig met with numerous venture capitalists (VCs) across Europe, but none were willing to invest despite his company's rapid growth, with dozens or even hundreds of meetings resulting in rejection (6s).
• The company experienced exponential growth, reaching $25 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and growing multiple 100% a year, yet still failed to secure VC investment (10s).
• The company achieved significant milestones in its revenue growth, going from $0 to $2 million ARR in 18 months, then to $10 million ARR in the next 18 months, and eventually reaching $100 million ARR in less than 2 years (27s).
• The company continued its rapid growth, reaching $2 billion ARR in just a few years after surpassing the $100 million ARR mark (31s).
• Markus Villig expressed his excitement about being on the show and was welcomed by the host (54s).

The Story About Founding Bolt (55s)

• Markus Villig, the founder of Bolt, had a passion for technology and commerce from a young age, starting by selling Legos in kindergarten and later building websites for local companies as a teenager (1m41s).
• His parents, who grew up in the Soviet Union, encouraged his entrepreneurial spirit, telling him to "go for it" and challenge the world (2m7s).
• At 19, Villig was a student without a driver's license, but he had already learned to code and was experimenting with different startup ideas (2m15s).
• He initially built a mobile app for his school's online educational system, but it didn't succeed due to the long sales cycles and limited budget in the public sector (2m36s).
• Villig then took a systematic approach to finding the right industry, eventually realizing that transportation was the most exciting space for him, driven by factors such as the shift to on-demand assets, the rise of electric cars, micro-mobility, and the potential for self-driving vehicles (3m2s).
• He was drawn to the transportation industry because of its potential for massive disruption and innovation, and he knew he wanted to be a part of it (3m53s).
• Markus Villig, at 19 years old, wanted to innovate in transportation in the shared new economy, so he started by Googling how to start a startup and reading content from websites like Y Combinator. (4m2s)
• The top advice he found was to validate customer and supplier interest before building the first line of code, so he set up a survey on social media and Google forms, which hundreds of people replied to, confirming that the taxi industry in Tallinn at the time was horrible. (4m20s)
• The taxi industry had multiple issues, including 15 different companies to call, long wait times, dirty cars, rude drivers, and the inability to pay by card, making it a really bad experience for customers. (4m49s)
• After the survey, Villig validated the supplier side by going to taxi stands every day for multiple months, pitching his new app to drivers, but initially faced rejection, with 90% of drivers immediately dismissing him. (5m29s)
• Despite the initial rejections, Villig persisted and eventually persuaded about 50 drivers to give him their contacts, optimizing his pitch over time to improve conversions. (5m58s)
• The successful pitch was simple, emphasizing that drivers were stuck under legacy taxi companies that didn't give them enough work, and that signing up to the app was low-risk, with only a small commission paid per trip. (6m18s)
• Once Villig had validated consumer interest and got the first drivers on board, he started building the app, taking advantage of his free pass to university due to his good grade in a national computer science olympiad. (6m40s)
• Markus Villig was given six months to work on a product, during which time he spent most of his time coding, building the consumer app, driver app, and backend, but soon realized he needed help as he wasn't capable of building all the systems quickly enough (7m6s).
• Villig approached his older brother, who had a great career in tech and was one of the early employees at Skype in 2004, to help him find engineers to join the project (7m30s).
• Villig's brother had a great network of engineers, and together they talked to at least 30 potential co-founders, but every single one of them turned Villig down due to his lack of experience and the fact that Uber was not well-known at the time (7m42s).
• The idea of a ride-hailing app was not validated, and many people were skeptical, with some thinking that Villig would never be able to compete with established limousine companies in the US (7m57s).
• At the time, the concept of ride-hailing apps was new, and in Villig's part of the world, people were still using phone dispatchers to get a ride (8m11s).
• Villig had 30 conversations with potential co-founders, but none of them were interested in joining the project (8m16s).

Finding a Co-Founder (8m17s)

• The process of finding a co-founder was challenging, and it took publishing the opportunity on random forums in Estonia to find the right person, Oliver, who would become the technical co-founder (8m19s).
• Oliver was hired after he built the rider application, driver application, and backend in just a couple of days, proving his capabilities (9m16s).
• The founder believes that luck played a significant role in finding Oliver, and without him, the company would not be where it is today (9m58s).
• The biggest advice for founders looking to find another co-founder is to never give up and try to find people from all sorts of channels, including random forums (10m15s).
• After finding Oliver, they started building the backend, and the front-end product began to take shape (10m36s).
• Going live with the marketplace was tricky due to the chicken and egg problem, requiring both drivers and customers at the same time, and both being impatient (10m47s).
• To overcome this challenge, the founder used his parents' university fund of $5,000 to get the company off the ground, spending it on product development, stickers, billboards, and business cards (12m1s).
• The initial launch was a humble beginning, trying to hack in every free and organic manner to get the first initial traffic to the platform (12m28s).

The First Steps After Launching (12m36s)

• The business had an asymmetric start, with strong consumer demand from day one, but a lack of drivers online, resulting in a bad experience for many initial users (12m44s).
• To address this issue, efforts were made to sign up more drivers, including going on the streets of Talinn to sign up taxi drivers one by one, using the app to sign them up on the spot (13m26s).
• A sales tactic used was to get in the car with the driver and not leave until they had signed up, offering a curated service to get every single driver online (13m37s).
• Additional help was sought from family members, including an older brother, Martin, and mom, to try and get more people on board to help with the demand (14m1s).
• The business started with five trips on the first day and gradually grew, taking a couple of months to reach 100 trips a day, and then quickly increasing to 200, 500, 1,000 trips a day (14m24s).
• It became obvious that the business was taking off and would become sustainable, allowing the hiring of the first employees (14m42s).
• The biggest challenge for the business has always been the supply side, with the mantra "ADD Supply" being a constant focus (15m5s).
• In hindsight, it is thought that being more aggressive with initial fundraising could have sped up the business by a couple of months, rather than bootstrapping the company for the first year (15m29s).
• The company was initially bootstrapped with $5,000 from the founder's parents and managed to build the product and reach thousands of daily trips without external funding (15m40s).

How Did Bolt Run Thousands of Trips on $5,000 While Others Need Millions? (15m56s)

• Bolt was able to run thousands of trips in its first year with just $5,000, a stark contrast to other companies in the industry that require millions of dollars in seed funding, making it the only company to achieve this feat (16m7s).
• The internal culture of the initial team, including Markus Villig, Oliver, Martin, and his brother, played a significant role in this achievement, as they came from a frugal and resourceful mindset, focusing on getting the business to profitability without raising any money (16m28s).
• This mentality is different from other businesses in the industry, which often start with excess cash and become bloated, never having to optimize for costs (16m50s).
• Having no money benefited Bolt in attracting the right people, as they offered generous equity to compensate for lower salaries, attracting missionaries rather than mercenaries (17m17s).
• The lack of funds also defined the company culture, forcing the first couple dozen employees to be effective in how they spent every euro, creating a ruthless and frugal culture that cascaded down to what the company is today (17m40s).
• Bolt eventually raised money, realizing that while they could continue to bootstrap the company, they needed external financing to grow further, raising about $1 million in seed funding and building the company to $10 million in annual revenues (18m12s).
• The company's ability to build itself to $10 million in annual revenues without significant external financing is unprecedented in the industry (18m25s).

Meeting the First Investor (18m38s)

• The first investor meeting occurred when Markus Villig was 20 years old and had gained traction in Estonia with his company, Bolt. (18m38s)
• At that time, Villig was trying to raise the company's first 1 million euro seed round to expand. (18m51s)
• To achieve this, Villig reached out to everyone in Estonia he could think of, including small local VC funds that were just setting up and some early Skype employees. (18m54s)
• The first round of funding was successfully raised, mainly from these local VC funds and early Skype employees, at a valuation of approximately 9 million euros. (19m6s)
• The company received 1 million euros in funding at that moment. (19m9s)

Should Startups Go Global vs. Focus Locally First? (19m13s)

• Despite the globalization of venture startups, there are still many young entrepreneurs who prefer to raise funds locally, as they may not be aware of the international startup world (19m34s).
• It might be more effective for startups to approach European venture capitalists and raise a more serious round from the beginning, considering the massive spike in valuations (19m53s).
• A startup's expansion strategy should focus on sequential growth, rather than launching in multiple countries at the same time, to avoid burning through funds quickly (20m40s).
• Launching in multiple countries simultaneously can lead to bankruptcy, as was the case with Bolt, which had to let go of employees and shut down markets after a failed expansion attempt (20m30s).
• To expand successfully, startups should focus on the closest geographic countries and figure out the launch model one by one, rather than trying to replicate a model that works in one country (21m1s).
• After a failed expansion attempt, Bolt cut back to 15 employees, focusing on the Estonian operation, which was the only part of the business that was working well and growing organically (21m19s).
• When expanding into new markets, it's common for some markets to be loss-making, and profitable markets may need to subsidize them until the new markets mature (21m41s).
• However, it's possible to have economically efficient markets from day one, depending on the industry, but for marketplaces with strong network effects, it's often necessary to subsidize both sides of the marketplace to get liquidity up (21m51s).
• The threshold for achieving positive unit economics in urban on-demand mobility marketplaces is typically around 25% market share, which can take a couple of years to achieve (22m31s).
• The development of a launch playbook for Bolt involved a humble beginning, with the founder's brother launching the first Latvian market by renting an apartment, hiring students, and meeting with taxi companies to figure out how to get demand into the marketplace (22m58s).

Key Lessons on Effective Driver Supply (23m29s)

• About 80% of volume is driven organically from word of mouth, while all pay channels make up about 20% in a mature phase, but this can vary when starting in a new market (23m35s).
• To get the first couple of hundred drivers and customers on board, a combination of PR and paid online ads is effective, with Instagram and Facebook ads being particularly successful (24m4s).
• A great product is essential for growth, as a fantastic value proposition can lead to exponential growth, while a poor product can cause cohorts to fall to zero (24m12s).
• In marketplaces, unit economics are often horrible in the first six months due to a lack of liquidity, requiring subsidies for drivers and customers, but this can flip into profitability over time (24m46s).
• Having faith in the model and continuing to invest can help reach a threshold where the business becomes profitable, although this can be difficult for financial professionals to understand (25m3s).
• One effective strategy for getting started in new markets is to offer a sauce product and then convert it into a marketplace, as people may join for the tools but stay for the network (25m28s).
• Partnering with local taxi companies and offering them great tools, such as fleet management and dispatching software, can help get the first companies on board and add supply to the ecosystem (25m53s).
• This approach can help solve the chicken and egg problem by having drivers online before building up the consumer platform (26m21s).

A Market That Surprised Most & Market Expansion (26m43s)

• The founder's brother is running Ria, which has a large and professional HQ that is also his apartment with a bed in the corner (26m44s).
• The biggest surprise in the founder's journey was the success of the company in Africa, which was not initially anticipated (26m56s).
• The company initially raised its first million and launched in several markets that failed, before taking a step back and adopting an iterative approach of launching incrementally one country after another (27m4s).
• The company had around four or five countries working nicely in Europe, with each country generating around $10 million in cross-bookings and a 15% commission, resulting in $1.5 million in annual revenue per country (27m23s).
• The company needed to expand to more geographies and couldn't just operate in small central and eastern European countries, so they created an Excel list of the top 200 cities in the world, ranking them by seven criteria such as population, regulation, and car ownership rates (27m53s).
• The top cities on the list were in Africa, including Johannesburg and Lagos, which were unfamiliar to the founder, who had never been to Africa before (28m21s).
• To test the markets without prematurely hiring people, the company set up online ads for customers and drivers in dozens of cities, including Johannesburg, to gauge interest and customer acquisition costs (28m51s).
• This approach allowed the company to identify the top seven cities with the best numbers and launch in those cities, with some of the top cities being unintuitive choices (29m24s).
• The top two cities identified were Johannesburg and Lagos, and the founder had to figure out how to launch in these cities despite being a "kid from Estonia" with no prior experience in Africa (29m38s).
• The company differentiated itself from others by taking a pragmatic approach and calculating the AIS of everything, going from first principles to determine what was needed to get the service off the ground (29m54s).
• To launch the service, the company ran online ads for drivers, which attracted hundreds of sign-ups due to high unemployment rates in some countries, and then hired a young university student as the first employee through an online ad (30m13s).
• The first employee was tasked with finding an office space, calling and training drivers, and preparing for the launch, all of which was done remotely through a video call, a unusual practice at the time (30m40s).
• After a few months of preparation, the company launched the service, which became an immediate success in Africa, with Johannesburg becoming more than half of the business in just six months (31m25s).
• At the time of the Johannesburg launch, the company had around 15 cities live in Europe, but Johannesburg quickly surpassed them in terms of business volume (31m47s).
• The company measures success by one metric: gross bookings, which is the monetary volume of transactions on the platform, and this metric showed immense growth in Johannesburg (32m2s).
• The high monetary value of trips in Johannesburg was unexpected, with prices similar to those in Eastern Europe, and the company focused on gross bookings as the key metric because it is the only thing that matters (32m20s).
• The company's focus on gross bookings is because it is the only metric that truly matters, and other metrics such as retention, activation rate, and customer satisfaction are secondary (32m42s).
• The key metric for the business is Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) or cross-bookings, as it encapsulates everything that is going well or poorly in the business, including retention, frequency, and customer acquisition (32m53s).
• A high GMV indicates great retention, which leads to consumers returning to the platform, increasing their frequency over time, and bringing in more customers, ultimately resulting in even more GMV (33m13s).
• While other teams focus on Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC), acquisition rates, and retention rates, these are secondary priorities, and GMV remains the North Star metric (33m20s).
• The business initially underestimated its potential in different parts of the world but quickly realized its potential after launching in Johannesburg and Lagos (33m33s).
• The company had a strategic discussion and updated its priorities after monitoring dashboards and seeing thousands of consumers and drivers signing up every day (33m48s).
• A SWAT team was created to identify the next 15 countries to replicate the success, and the company launched in about 15 countries, including major African economies and Mexico, with almost all launches being successful (34m14s).
• The company was not the first to market in these places, but its unique approach made it successful, including localizing better and optimizing for cost efficiency (34m52s).
• The company's competitors, including American players, neglected local needs, such as not allowing bookings without a credit card, which limited their market reach (35m35s).
• By localizing and optimizing for cost efficiency, the company was able to capitalize on the empty market and gain a competitive advantage (35m53s).
• Bolt took a very small cut as the handing operator in the world, enabling them to pass on much better rates for customers, who generally paid 10% less, and pay drivers 5 to 10% better as well (36m0s)
• Both sides of the marketplace had a clear financial reason to switch to Bolt due to the improved rates and pay, which helped overcome the initial critical mass (36m16s)

Entering Markets as a Second or Third Player? Is That a Viable Strategy? (36m22s)

• Bolt operates in about 50 countries worldwide and is the number one most popular platform in more than 20 of them, with the company feeling happy about its current position (36m44s).
• In the remaining 30 countries where Bolt operates, the company is continuously taking market share due to offering a better value proposition to customers and drivers (36m57s).
• Despite being a second mover in many markets, Bolt is confident it can catch up and become the most popular platform over time, having done so before (37m9s).
• Being the second player in a market can still be a good business if the company is frugal, but it may not be sustainable for companies with high costs, such as Lyft in the US (37m19s).
• Lyft's only way to survive is to optimize its costs, but with its current cost structure, it's unlikely to remain an independent company in five years (37m40s).
• It's unclear who would be a natural acquirer for Lyft, making it a challenging company to turn around (37m49s).

What Broke First in Bolt’s Expansion (37m56s)

• Bolt's massive market expansion led to the company entering Africa, with a presence in Kenya and Johannesburg, but behind the scenes, the experience was chaotic due to the company's tiny team of about five people from Estonia who had no prior experience in these car markets (37m57s).
• The team had to figure out everything from localizing the product to collecting payments, issuing invoices, hiring people to train drivers, and marketing in these new locations, resulting in a complete mess but also a fun and exciting experience (38m16s).
• Despite the chaos, nothing major broke, but the company neglected the regulatory aspect for too long, focusing intensely on other areas, which became a problem in countries where Bolt was the first mover and had to define the category (38m44s).
• In some countries, such as Poland, Czech, and the Baltics, regulators came to Bolt for input on how to regulate the platform, highlighting the need for the company to set up a public policy team and engage with regulators to provide input on best practices (39m2s).
• The company realized the importance of engaging with regulators and influencing the regulatory environment, but this came about a year or two later than it should have, as it doesn't come naturally to most tech companies growing at a rapid pace (39m35s).

Is Speed the Most Important Thing? (39m41s)

• Speed is considered the most important thing in startup growth and development, but it must be executed with high quality to be effective (39m43s).
• Executing quickly but cutting corners can lead to launching products or services that shouldn't be launched, resulting in momentum but no real progress (39m52s).
• One thing that could have been done more slowly is being more deliberate about which markets to expand into, as the initial expansion model was incorrect (40m5s).
• If a better model had been used from the start, the company's evolution could have been accelerated by a significant period (40m23s).
• The company initially expanded with the wrong model, but later stumbled upon a better model that could have been used from the beginning (40m13s).

Fundraising After Expansion (40m28s)

• By 2015, Bolt had successfully expanded into various markets, with metrics going through the roof, growing 500% a year, and crossing $10 million in annual revenue, but the company had only raised $1 million in seed funding, causing huge stress due to limited cash reserves (40m36s).
• Despite impressive metrics, numerous meetings with top VCs in Europe resulted in rejections, with the primary reason being that the ride-hailing market was seen as a "win or take all" market, leaving no room for a second player (41m44s).
• Sequoia Capital also declined a meeting, but later approached the company four years later, which is another story (42m11s).
• Due to the lack of interest from sophisticated VCs, the company took an unconventional approach to fundraising, reaching out to anyone with available funds, including a local real estate company in Estonia (42m49s).
• The real estate company invested $500,000 at a valuation of around $15 million, which turned out to be a highly successful investment, with returns exceeding 100x (43m28s).
• The interim round of funding, which included investments from the real estate company, a local railway operator, and a local telecoms company, totaled around $1 million, just enough for the company to survive (44m7s).

Why VCs Didn’t Support Back Then (44m16s)

• The company's metrics were doing well, with 25 million in annual revenue and growing multiple 100% a year, but still, no venture capitalists (VCs) were willing to invest, leading to frustration with the VC industry (44m24s).
• Despite the frustration, the experience of meeting with VCs was nice, as they took meetings, listened, and offered advice, but ultimately, no investment was made (44m45s).
• The situation changed when Mercedes (or Daimler) approached the company out of the blue, as they were trying to figure out their strategy in the changing mobility landscape (44m57s).
• Mercedes had a fund set aside to buy companies in the mobility space and offered to buy the business for around 100 million Euros, which would have been a fantastic outcome for the young founders (45m22s).
• However, the founder was clear that they didn't want to sell the business, as they believed it had the potential to be something special, and the other founders, Oliver and Martin, were supportive of this decision (45m34s).
• The founder had around 45% of the business at that stage, which would have meant a payout of around $45 million at the age of 22, but the decision was made to turn down the offer (45m43s).
• Some angel investors were in favor of selling, as they would have received a great return on their investment, but ultimately, they supported the founder's decision to take the risk and grow the business (46m12s).
• A year later, the company's numbers had quadrupled, and they were able to convince VCs to invest over $100 million at a billion-dollar valuation, which turned out to be a fantastic outcome for the investors (46m46s).

Raising From $1M to $100M (46m56s)

• The company went through a huge transition in fundraising, from raising $1 million from local real estate companies and telecoms to raising $100 million from Daimler. (46m57s)
• The team had an internal debate about what to do with the money, as they were already doing well and didn't need to fundraise, but decided to raise the money to quadruple the business quickly. (47m15s)
• The goal was to deploy the funds efficiently and retain the company's cost efficiency, which had been a key factor in their success from day one. (47m25s)
• When the company raised the $100 million, the plan was to not change the culture and to keep operating as they had before, with a focus on hiring more people but not increasing salaries or team sizes massively. (48m18s)
• The team was on board with this plan, as they had been through tough times and understood what made the company special and successful. (48m41s)
• The initial $100 million round from Daimler eventually became a $170 million round with additional investors joining in. (48m8s)

Execution After Raising (48m48s)

• After raising funds, the execution strategy involved launching in significantly more markets at the same time to overcome the initial chicken and egg problem, with setup costs in some cities being massive, such as at least 100 million euros in a city like London to reach critical mass (48m57s).
• The cheapest cities to launch were those in the Baltics, with Estonia being launched with just $5,000 due to its small population and little competition (49m30s).
• In contrast, launching in some of the biggest cities in the world required investments of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars (49m36s).
• With $170 million in funds, the growth continued, with multiple cities being launched at the same time, resulting in a rapid increase in annual revenue from $25 million to $100 million, $200 million, and $400 million in just a couple of years (49m41s).

Bolt’s Growth Profile (49m57s)

• The growth profile of Bolt's business involved rapid exponential growth, with the company going from zero to 2 million ARR in about 18 months (50m16s).
• Following this initial growth, Bolt's ARR increased to about 10 million in the next 18 months, representing a 5x increase (50m22s).
• The company then experienced further rapid growth, reaching 100 million ARR in less than two years (50m29s).
• Bolt's ARR continued to grow exponentially, eventually reaching 2 billion ARR in the next few years (50m33s).

Moment When Other Investors Couldn’t Ignore Bolt (50m49s)

• When Bolt reached a certain stage of growth, people started to take notice of the company, particularly investors who could no longer ignore its large size and good numbers (50m52s).
• The company began to appeal to the financial crowd, attracting top-tier New York investors such as D1 and TSG, who were drawn to Bolt's strong numbers and market shares (51m11s).
• The New York investors conducted deep and sophisticated analysis of Bolt's numbers, market trends, and growth, which was a key factor in their investment decision (51m42s).
• In contrast, some venture capitalists (VCs) focused more on the narrative in the industry rather than the numbers, which ultimately proved to be the wrong approach (51m57s).
• The New York investors who bet on Bolt based on its numbers have seen significant returns on their investment (52m4s).
• Bolt has raised a total of $1.5 billion, with 10% coming from strategic investors and the majority from European and US-based investors (52m11s).
• Sequoia, which had initially declined to meet with Bolt, came back into the picture in 2021 when the company was experiencing explosive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic (52m25s).
• Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, Bolt was able to recover from a significant decline in revenue, going from $200 million to losing 85% of that in just four weeks (52m47s).

What Bolt Did in Covid Time with 85% Revenue Loss (52m53s)

• During the COVID-19 pandemic, the company's revenue dropped by 85%, but instead of laying off employees, the management decided to retain all staff and implement a 20% salary reduction for everyone, which turned out to be a successful gamble (52m53s).
• The decision to not lay off employees resulted in a massive morale boost, with some employees even opting for 30-40% salary reductions to help the company through the difficult period (53m50s).
• Over the six-month period, the company optimized its business, making it more efficient by questioning every line of the profit and loss statement and squeezing everything possible (54m8s).
• The company also prepared for its post-pandemic recovery by launching new markets, taking advantage of low-utilized drivers who had no other alternatives due to the pandemic (54m21s).
• To sign up drivers in new markets, the company used online ads, which worked effectively during the pandemic, and then followed up with phone calls to drivers who had signed up (54m52s).
• The company successfully signed up hundreds of thousands of drivers across Europe and Africa, and as markets began to open up, it invested marketing dollars and discount dollars to accelerate its recovery (55m8s).
• The company had a "war room" where it monitored the opening up of cities and immediately invested in marketing and discounts when a city reopened, allowing it to quickly recover from the pandemic (55m35s).
• The company's competitors missed the opportunity to accelerate out of the lockdowns, which gave the company a competitive advantage (55m53s).
• The company experienced a significant loss in revenue, with an 85% decline, but was able to recover and reach new records within five or six months (56m3s).
• The company received a message from Andrew Reed of Sequoia, and the Sequoia team had already done their homework on the company before reaching out, which was different from other VC meetings (56m19s).
• Sequoia approached the company while they were raising a new round, and after sharing some metrics, Sequoia came back with interest in joining the round within 48 hours (56m42s).
• To this day, Bolt is the largest ticket Sequoia has ever done into Europe, and the decision-making process was incredibly quick (57m0s).
• The investment round with Sequoia was in 2021, with a valuation of around 4.5 billion (57m16s).
• Having Sequoia as an investor brought brand validation, especially in Europe, and helped attract talented people to join the company (57m49s).
• The company's growth model was already working well before Sequoia's investment, and the investment mainly helped with brand recognition and attracting talent (57m35s).
• The company believes that having a great process for weeding out people with the wrong values is more important than the reason why people join, whether it's due to a fund or other reasons (58m20s).

Hiring Mistakes (58m23s)

• Initially, hiring was a major challenge, with seven out of the first 10 people hired being let go, which almost led to the company's demise (58m28s).
• The main issue was being overly optimistic about people and not having a proper vetting process in place, partly due to inexperience as a 19-year-old CEO (59m7s).
• This experience led to learning from mistakes and codifying the hiring process to be more specific, resulting in more successful hiring in the following years (59m24s).
• If there's only one quality to look for in a candidate, it would be intelligence, as it's more important to make the right decisions than to work long hours (59m34s).
• This emphasis on intelligence has been proven in reality, with extremely intelligent employees like Oliver, the lead software engineer, and Pav, the head of growth, making significant contributions to the company (59m56s).
• While it's challenging to find leaders in Europe who understand tech companies and have built large organizations, there is plenty of talent available for other aspects like marketing and engineering (1h0m51s).
• It's possible to learn from the best practices of top companies, which are often publicly available, and find talented individuals in Europe who can adapt to the company's needs (1h1m12s).
• Hiring great people in Europe who haven't had the opportunity to compete at a world scale has worked better than bringing in people from the US and dealing with assimilation and cultural challenges (1h1m31s).
• Employees from central and eastern Europe have been particularly successful, as they are talented, intelligent, and hardworking, and have grown with the company, demonstrating a different mentality than those often found in Silicon Valley (1h1m48s).

Opinion on UK/European Funding Environment (1h2m4s)

• The European funding environment is considered poor quality, although it has improved significantly over the past 10 years, but still lags behind the US in terms of available capital (1h2m5s).
• One of the main issues is the limited funding in Europe, with fewer large pension funds and university endowments investing in the VC industry compared to the US (1h2m17s).
• However, an alternative perspective suggests that there is actually too much money in Europe, leading to a concentration of capital into a few good opportunities and inflated prices (1h2m36s).
• This concentration of capital can result in mediocre to poor large funds, and a self-fulfilling prophecy where companies with access to funding can compete with their US counterparts, while those without funding struggle to compete (1h2m56s).
• In the European funding environment, investors often demand profitability too early, before companies can reach a massive scale (1h3m42s).
• To improve the European funding environment, investors need to be more ambitious and tolerant of businesses taking a long time to reach profitability (1h3m34s).
• For a European entrepreneur, it is advised to raise funds from European VCs if the target market is in Europe, as they can provide help with recruiting talent, but if the target market is in the US, it is recommended to raise funds from US investors who can provide connections and support (1h4m6s).

Do VCs Add Value? (1h4m24s)

• Most venture capitalists (VCs) do not add value, with around 80% of them only providing capital, while a few VCs do add value (1h4m28s).
• In retrospect, a different approach to fundraising would have been to approach New York funds earlier, as they showed excitement and willingness to invest after seeing the company's numbers (1h4m49s).
• Initially, there was a misconception that New York funds would not be willing to invest in private companies, but they proved to be a viable option (1h4m48s).
• Approaching New York funds earlier could have resulted in investment a year or two earlier than it actually happened (1h4m55s).

Expanding to Other Categories of Service (1h4m57s)

• The decision to expand beyond the core category of ride-hailing was driven by the ambition to build a replacement to private cars, which couldn't be achieved by ride-hailing alone (1h5m4s).
• In the first five years, the company focused solely on ride-hailing due to limited resources, but by 2018, they had enough budget to take on a new venture (1h5m26s).
• After internal debate, the company decided to take a gamble on micro-mobility, launching electric scooters on their platform, a decision that was met with controversy from employees and some investors (1h5m36s).
• The concerns raised included the difficulty of entering a hardware business and the potential cannibalization of profitable ride-hailing trips, as 40% of trips in some countries are less than 4 kilometers long (1h5m58s).
• However, the company took a long-term view, believing it was better to cannibalize their own business rather than let someone else do it, and that electric scooters and bikes would become ubiquitous (1h6m21s).
• The company's philosophy is to innovate on behalf of the customer, providing better options, and in return, they believe customers will reward them with loyalty (1h6m37s).

Why Paris Was the Worst City to Launch Micro-mobility (1h6m43s)

• Paris was considered a prime location to launch micromobility due to its large population and high incomes, but it turned out to be a disaster due to a high rate of vandalism, with 3% of vehicles being lost every week (1h7m6s).
• The vandalism made it impossible for the unit economics to work in Paris, leading to a decision to pull out of the city (1h7m20s).
• The micromobility market in Paris was also highly competitive, with multiple companies, including Uber, entering the market and raising tens of millions of dollars (1h7m46s).
• After the failure in Paris, the company decided to try launching micromobility in Estonia, their home market, which turned out to be a success, with better consumer utilization and unit economics (1h8m7s).
• The success in Estonia led to a realization that micromobility can work in almost every city in Europe, regardless of income levels, as people are willing to pay for the convenience (1h8m29s).
• The company then expanded micromobility to other cities, with Estonia being the first city where unit economics made sense (1h8m42s).
• Unit economics for micromobility are worse than for ride-hailing due to lower pricing per kilometer and lower margins, with contribution margins ranging from 20% in good markets to negative in bad markets (1h9m5s).
• The company has become one of the few fully vertically integrated players in the micromobility market, with its own hardware team, manufacturing in China, and a large logistics operation in Europe (1h9m15s).

How Bolt Was Making Their Own Scooters (1h9m35s)

• Bolt initially bought nine scooters off the shelf, but they weren't designed for sharing and broke down quickly, which led to the narrative that these scooters are not sustainable (1h9m55s).
• The company decided to take a long-term view and design a scooter from scratch that is built for sharing, would last long, and be cost-effective (1h10m18s).
• Bolt had no experience in hardware, so they tried to hire a team and got lucky with a team of about 10 engineers in Estonia who had been building electric vehicles as their passion project (1h10m32s).
• The team joined Bolt and were given a budget and a consumer base to build the scooters, which turned out to be a massive win-win for both sides (1h10m51s).
• The team is still with the company, now on their seventh iteration of hardware, and had connections in China that helped Bolt set up a factory and get local employees (1h11m25s).
• Bolt allocated around 10% of their total funding to the scooter project, which had a massive transformative effect on the rest of the business (1h11m50s).
• The company became the largest micromobility operator in Europe, with a presence in hundreds of cities, and currently has a market share of around 15-25% in Europe (1h12m10s).

About Self-Driving (1h12m22s)

• Self-driving technology is expected to completely change the world, offering one of the biggest opportunities for companies to transform how millions of people live, how cities are designed, and how time is spent, but it won't happen anytime soon (1h12m24s).
• There are two main approaches to self-driving technology: end-to-end neural nets, used by companies like Tesla and Wayve, and a more expensive approach with significantly more sensors, used by companies like Waymo and Cruise (1h12m55s).
• The end-to-end neural net approach is making progress but is still years away from having a reliable service that can replace a human driver in terms of safety and coverage of areas (1h13m10s).
• The more expensive approach with more sensors is getting to the point where it can work as well as a human driver, but the costs are currently prohibitive (1h13m30s).
• The cost of self-driving technology will need to come down over multiple years to become commercially viable (1h13m46s).
• Companies like Google can subsidize self-driving services to make them cheaper for users, but this doesn't mean the underlying cost structure is in place (1h13m59s).
• It's hoped that the technology and costs of self-driving will be sorted out over the next 5 years, with regulation taking a couple more years to catch up, especially in Europe (1h14m9s).
• Vertically integrating and buying or partnering with companies may be necessary for self-driving companies to succeed, as most don't want to operate a car network long-term (1h14m29s).
• Companies like Bolt are well-positioned to handle the real-world operations of self-driving services, as they have experience with operating large fleets of vehicles and complying with local regulations (1h14m49s).
• Operating a large fleet of self-driving vehicles is a complex task that involves complying with regulations, collecting payments, dealing with customer support, and more, and is often underestimated (1h14m54s).
• Companies like Bolt will be pivotal for self-driving companies to actually go to market, handling tasks like insurance, financing, and procurement of cars (1h15m19s).
• Bolt is not expanding into San Francisco anytime soon (1h15m27s).

Where Is Uber Better, and Where Does Bolt Lead? (1h15m31s)

• Uber is better at raising money, as they have raised multitudes more than Bolt, with some companies raising $5 billion, $15 billion, or even $30 billion, while Bolt has raised $1.5 billion (1h15m45s).
• Bolt is returning to profitability after investing a big chunk of the money they raised over the last five years, and they have a set of markets that have been profitable for years (1h16m9s).
• The company's priority is still growth, and they have no intention of becoming a profitable company that pays dividends anytime soon (1h16m24s).
• Bolt is taking the cash flow from their profitable markets and investing it into other parts of the group, such as launching in more geographies or launching new product lines (1h16m44s).
• Bolt operates five product lines, including ride hailing, scooters and electric bikes, car rentals, restaurant delivery, and grocery delivery, which is a lot for almost any company (1h17m2s).
• The company is already at a scale with their current product lines, and they do not mention any specific product line that they would like to have but do not currently operate (1h17m5s).

What Product Line Does the Smallest in Revenue (1h17m16s)

• The smallest revenue makeup is the car rental product, which is still a significant area of focus due to its potential to become a multi-billion dollar category in the long term (1h17m16s).
• The current car rental experience is often unsatisfying, particularly for people who rent cars at airports for a couple of days, and there is an opportunity to improve this experience through partnerships and operational expertise (1h17m40s).
• A more ambitious goal is to create a new version of car-sharing services like Zipcar, where users can rent cars on demand in cities, which is already showing promise in about 10 European cities (1h18m10s).
• The company has a list of around 50 ideas for new products or services to launch each year and is currently considering adding dining payments, which would allow users to scan a QR code, order, and pay for food, integrating with the existing Bolt food ecosystem (1h18m36s).
• The dining payments service would enable a holistic ecosystem, tying together food delivery, dining experiences, and other related services, with a loyalty program attached (1h18m52s).
• The company believes it can turn unprofitable businesses, like scan-to-pay services, into successful ones through cost efficiency, which is an area where Bolt excels (1h19m20s).

Unmade Decisions (1h19m27s)

• The heaviest things in life are not iron or gold, but unmade decisions, and there is no single decision that is regretted, but rather multiple decisions that would be done differently if possible (1h19m28s).
• One of the biggest decisions that would be done differently is being more aggressive in expansion, particularly during the period from 2015 to 2019 when multiple markets were launched remotely (1h19m49s).
• During this time, the company was raising bigger rounds and receiving external advice to become more professional and have more rigor and process around launching markets (1h20m6s).
• This advice was taken, and the company slowed down on expansion, doubling down on existing markets, which had its merits but also left a vacuum for competitors to fill in some parts of the world (1h20m22s).
• In hindsight, it is believed that continuing in a startup mindset for a bit longer would have provided a great opportunity, but instead, competitors were able to take meaningful share (1h20m38s).

Quick-Fire Round (1h20m40s)

• The contrarian view is that retelling companies will be the best way for self-driving cars to come to market, despite most people thinking that companies will build their own operations and squeeze out retelling companies like Bolt, due to the complexities involved in scaling a retailing network (1h20m51s).
• Building a retelling network with human drivers is already hard, and adding the complexity of managing an autonomous operation will make it even more difficult (1h21m22s).
• The most lavish purchase made was an apartment in Tallinn, which is still cheaper than anything that could be gotten in London (1h21m38s).
• Money does not bring happiness, but having a base level of money is necessary to take care of daily needs and have good emotional health (1h21m52s).
• What brings excitement is seeing the company do well and the people around do well, which is why coming to the office every day is enjoyable (1h22m9s).
• The view on AI has changed in the last 12 months, from being skeptical to now using language models like GPT every day, and seeing its potential to optimize work in various use cases (1h22m24s).
• Initially, AI was thought to be useful only for customer support, but now it's clear that it can be expanded to more use cases, such as CRM, sales, marketing, and internal tooling (1h23m23s).
• The application of AI and machine learning in various domains, such as document summarization and decision-making, is becoming increasingly promising, with potential for significant impact (1h23m46s).
• The ongoing war in Europe, specifically Russia's attack on Ukraine, is a major concern, with the situation having become normalized despite its severity (1h23m54s).
• The key to maintaining good health and fitness is to focus on the basics, including getting eight hours of sleep, eating healthy food, exercising regularly, and taking time off to relax and enjoy activities (1h24m28s).
• Throughout the Bolt journey, prioritizing sleep has been essential, with a focus on maintaining a healthy work-life balance and recognizing the importance of sleep for decision-making and overall well-being (1h24m54s).
• The future of on-demand marketplaces is likely to be dominated by a small number of players, with the industry stabilizing into a two-player market, and companies should be cautious of mergers and acquisitions that may not yield the expected results (1h25m30s).
• The barriers to entry in the on-demand marketplace industry are now very high, making it unlikely for new competitors to enter the market, and innovation is likely to come from new modes of transport, such as electric vehicles (1h26m26s).
• The future of transportation may not be scooters or self-driving cars, but rather something entirely different that will disrupt the market (1h26m52s).
• The existing companies may not be the ones to shake up the market, but rather a new entity (1h26m57s).
• The story of Markus Villig, the founder of Bolt, is a combination of art and science, with valuable lessons to be learned (1h27m4s).
• Sharing stories like Markus Villig's re-energizes one's love and passion for their work (1h27m8s).