Why Is Everyone Having Fewer Children? - Lyman Stone
05 Sep 2024 (13 days ago)
Fertility Rates Over the Last Few Years
- The average fertility rate in America has declined from 2.1 children per woman in 2007 to approximately 1.6 children per woman today.
- In the 1800s, the fertility rate in America was around six children per woman, but this number is misleading because life expectancy was much lower, and many women did not survive to the end of their reproductive years.
- Despite high mortality rates for both mothers and children, surviving fertility rates in the U.S. during the 1800s remained relatively high, ranging from 2.7 to 4 children per woman.
Lessons We Can Take From the 1900s
- When people have a lower chance of dying, they tend to have children later in life.
- When people believe more of their children will survive, they tend to have fewer children.
- Fertility rates decline in many countries before industrialization, and in some early industrializing countries, fertility rates did not decline for a long time.
The Impact of Finances on Having Kids
- Men who win lotteries tend to have more children, a finding observed in various studies.
- Women in Africa with higher incomes tend to have more children.
- Modern people are raising larger families than people in the past because more children survive.
Our Modern Obsession With Parenting
- Income levels have increased in modern society, but so have expectations of what individuals should provide for their children, leading to a decline in fertility rates.
- The frequency of the word "parenting" in English language texts has increased significantly since the 1980s, indicating a growing preoccupation with parenting strategies and the perceived responsibilities of raising children.
- This shift towards intensive parenting can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a desire to replicate values in a more diverse society and a perceived need to protect children from negative influences.
New Research on Universal Basic Income
- A recent study on universal basic income (UBI) found that for every dollar given to recipients, their earnings declined by approximately 25 cents.
- The same study found that while spending increased across categories, net worth declined, leaving a significant portion of the provided funds unaccounted for.
- While UBI has been shown to be ineffective for long-term poverty alleviation, conditional cash transfers, such as child allowances, have demonstrated some positive results, including slightly higher birth rates, lower divorce rates, and increased co-residence of partners.
How Many Kids People Want Today
- The average ideal number of children reported in surveys in the US is 2.3, regardless of how the question is phrased.
- While the average desired family size remains consistent, there is increasing polarization, with more people wanting either zero or three to four children.
- Although there has been a rise in intended childlessness, there has also been a rise in the desire for larger families, resulting in little change to the average desired family size.
Why Lyman Remains Positive
- Falling fertility rates have negative economic and political consequences, but the most significant issue is that people are unable to have the number of children they desire.
- The best predictor of an individual not wanting children is their mental health, particularly depression and anxiety.
- Young people tend to overestimate the benefits of being childless and underestimate the challenges and potential regrets, particularly concerning social connections and loneliness.
Does Marriage Have an Impact on Fertility?
- The fertility rate of married people has not declined as much as the fertility rate of unmarried people.
- The desire to get married and the desire to have children has remained relatively stable, with approximately 90% of people expressing a desire for marriage.
- One of the biggest factors contributing to lower marriage rates is economic change, specifically the decline in the income of men in their 20s, a key age for marriage and starting families.
Shifting Attitudes Towards Contraception
- There is a possibility that microplastics and other toxins in the environment could impact fertility, but studies have not yet found a significant link.
- Hormonal contraception may increase the time it takes to become pregnant after stopping use, but there is no evidence of long-term damage to fertility.
- Studies show that time to pregnancy for couples actively trying to conceive has not changed in decades, suggesting that underlying factors are not significantly impacting fertility.
Political Tension in Mate Selection
- Political cultures in the US have adopted different social values regarding children, with one side exhibiting more anti-natal values than the other.
- While there is a conservative fertility advantage, conversion rates and the low heritability of social values mean it does not translate into a long-term political majority.
- Social values, including political and religious beliefs, are influenced by both genetics and environment, with environment playing a significant role.
The Future of Western Birth Rates
- Western fertility rates are likely to continue declining and may bottom out between 0.4 and 1.3.
- A future with low fertility rates may lead to reduced entrepreneurship, technological innovation, economic growth, and increased inequality.
- Despite the challenges, life in a low-fertility future will still be worth living, and the main obstacles to having children are likely to be psychological.
What Lyman is Studying Next
- Current research is focused on housing affordability and accessibility for young people, as it is a significant milestone often associated with starting a family.
- The research aims to identify solutions for making housing more affordable, useful for long-term planning, and supportive of the transition to family life.
- Original research findings on housing and family life are expected to be released in the coming months.
Where to Find Lyman
- Lyman's population work can be found on IFS, which is a great place to find a lot of his work.
- Lyman's Twitter handle is @lymanstoneky, where he shares his unfiltered opinions.
- The speaker thanks Lyman for his time and suggests that viewers watch a selection of the best clips from the podcast.