Ex-CIA Spy: China Is Preparing & We're Not Paying Attention! Here's What Happens If They Takeover!

Intro (0s)

• China is considered to be at war with the West, but this is not immediately apparent, and there are various issues and threats looming, including Putin's nuclear threats and assassination plots against the president-elect (0s).
• The real enemy of the West is a topic of discussion among experts, with some considering China to be the primary threat (17s).
• Mike Baker, a former CIA officer, has spent decades mastering spy skills that can be applied to business and everyday life, and offers insights into the geopolitical threats facing the West (28s).
• Baker's role in the CIA involved gathering intelligence to inform strategic decisions, and he notes that the skills required to do this can be valuable in business, particularly in areas such as targeting, manipulation, and psychology (42s).
• Baker has applied his CIA skills to the business world, using techniques such as identifying weaknesses and leveraging them to close deals, and emphasizes the importance of "getting off the X" to build long-term relationships with companies (1m20s).
• The host of the show notes that 53% of regular listeners have not yet subscribed, and asks for their support by hitting the Subscribe button, promising to listen to feedback and improve the show in return (1m32s).

Who Is Mike Baker? (2m4s)

• Mike Baker is a former CIA operative who started his career with the agency at a young age, specifically 22 years old, in the early 1980s, and joined the operations directorate (2m25s).
• He considers himself fortunate in life and had an unexpected start with the CIA (2m16s).
• Mike Baker's career journey has exposed him to various experiences, although the specifics of these experiences are not detailed in this segment (2m11s).

What Is The CIA? (2m34s)

• The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operates under the instruction of the White House and the administration in power, with its priorities and tasking set by the government, not the agency itself (2m53s).
• The CIA's mission is to carry out the tasking it receives, which can include collecting intelligence on specific subjects, such as foreign leaders' plans and intentions or the breakout time for a country's nuclear program (3m27s).
• The tasking received by the CIA is guided by intelligence provided by the intelligence community, and the agency works in a symbiotic relationship with the government to accomplish its objectives (3m13s).
• The CIA is part of a larger intelligence community that includes other elements, such as the National Security Agency (NSA) and military intelligence, all working together to achieve common goals (3m55s).
• The CIA's role is to fulfill its assigned tasking, which can involve a range of activities, from intelligence collection to other operations, as instructed by the government (2m40s).
• The agency's priorities and objectives are set by the administration in power, with the CIA's job being to carry out those objectives as instructed (3m7s).

Did Mike Spend A Lot Of Time Overseas For The CIA? (4m7s)

• Time was spent entirely overseas, with no experience of a headquarters tour, and involved traveling (4m19s).
• The day-to-day activities while overseas were not specified in this segment (4m20s).
• The entire career was spent in an overseas setting, with no time allocated to a headquarters role (4m17s).

What Was Mike's Day-To-Day Like At The CIA? (4m21s)

• A CIA officer's day-to-day life can vary greatly depending on the type of operation, with some living in a foreign country for two or three years and others conducting short one-off operations (4m23s).
• An "asset" refers to a recruited source, also known as a human source, who provides information to the CIA, whereas a CIA officer is the person working for the agency (5m0s).
• The process of recruiting an asset involves identifying the target, developing a relationship, and potentially recruiting the person, which can be a challenging and delicate task (6m1s).
• The recruitment cycle includes spotting, targeting, development, recruitment, and maintaining the relationship, with the goal of obtaining the desired information (6m26s).
• The window of opportunity to gather information from an asset is limited, as the asset's position and access to information can change over time, and there is a risk of the asset being discovered or compromised (7m6s).
• Recruiting an asset often requires convincing someone to commit treason against their country, which can be a difficult and complex process (7m54s).
• The skills and strategies used in recruiting assets can be applied to other fields, such as business development and sales, as they involve building relationships and identifying opportunities (8m1s).

How Does Mike Convince Someone To Become A Spy? (8m17s)

• The process of convincing someone to become a spy involves understanding their motivations and identifying their weaknesses, which can be complex and varied, including financial gain, ideology, or personal issues (8m17s).
• A spy's job may involve spotting, developing, recruiting, and handling sources, and sometimes passing on the relationship to another handler (8m42s).
• The location and environment in which a spy operates can greatly impact their work, with some places being more challenging than others, such as Lebanon (8m46s).
• Developing a personal relationship with a source is crucial, as they are not just betraying their country, but also their service, family, and other aspects of their life (9m31s).
• The psychology of betrayal is complex, and understanding it is essential to successfully recruiting a source (11m27s).
• The motivations of traitors, such as Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent who spied for Russia, can be difficult to understand, but often involve a combination of financial and personal factors (10m6s).
• In the case of Hanssen, he was a longtime FBI agent who offered his services to the Russians and was able to maintain a remote relationship with them, allowing him to betray the US for a long period (10m43s).
• Identifying the weaknesses and motivations of a potential source is key to recruiting them, and may involve playing on their vulnerabilities (12m39s).
• A potential source may be identified through various means, and a spy's job is to develop and recruit them, using their understanding of the source's motivations and weaknesses (12m46s).

How Mike Recruits A Source (13m1s)

• Information gathering can be done through casual conversations with people who have access to certain information, such as security guards, cleaners, or secretaries, as they often love to talk about themselves and their work (14m58s).
• To recruit someone, one might find something the person is interested in and start a conversation, mirroring their interests to build a connection (13m16s).
• People tend to open up when asked questions about themselves, and this can lead to gathering valuable information (13m39s).
• In the context of business or investments, information gathering can be crucial in understanding the operations of a company or facility, such as knowing the days of operation or the number of trucks coming in and out (15m7s).
• To build a connection with someone, one might need to demonstrate a shared interest, even if it's not genuine, and this can be done through quick research or learning (16m11s).
• The goal of information gathering is to find points of access and leverage, which can be used to influence or gain an advantage (16m30s).
• This approach can be seen as mercenary, as it involves asking people to do something or provide information that might not be in their best interest (16m39s).
• Hostile nations, such as those with interests opposing the US, UK, Australia, Canada, or Europe, often engage in aggressive behavior with no restrictions, and they do this more frequently than others (17m10s).
• In the context of espionage, building a profile of a person's personality is crucial, which involves understanding what drives them, their problems, and potential grievances (17m46s).
• The goal is to create a "map" of what the person is like, which cannot be achieved in a single encounter, such as a taxi ride (17m56s).
• After the initial encounter, the objective is to find a reason for a second meeting, which can sometimes be easier than others (18m14s).
• This can be achieved by finding a common interest or a reason to meet again, such as exchanging contact information, as seen in the example of the Uber driver giving the passenger his card (18m42s).
• In cases where a high-value target is involved, such as the head of the Iranian nuclear program, it can be more complicated to establish a connection, but not impossible (19m29s).
• The process of building a relationship and gathering information is not rocket science, but it can be challenging, especially when dealing with high-value targets (19m13s).

What Do They Train You To Be Good At In The CIA? (19m37s)

• The CIA trains its agents in various skills, including tradecraft, which encompasses conducting oneself overseas, clandestine communications, going undercover, using disguises, surveillance, and counter-surveillance (19m45s).
• Tradecraft is a key part of CIA training and involves a wide range of skills and techniques (19m49s).
• In addition to tradecraft, CIA agents receive paramilitary training and other specialized training (20m15s).
• People skills are also an important part of CIA training, including the psychology of the recruitment process, profiling individuals, and understanding how people think (20m23s).
• The recruitment process involves manipulation, which can be difficult or problematic for some agents to deal with (21m4s).
• CIA training can take a couple of years to complete before agents are considered ready to go out into the field (21m29s).
• The training process focuses on teaching agents to complete tasks and move on, rather than dwelling on the moral implications of their actions (21m23s).

Why Did Mike Leave The CIA? (21m36s)

• A decision was made to eventually leave the CIA after a very long career. (21m37s)
• The reason for leaving the CIA was due to personal reasons, including having a young daughter and going through a divorce. (21m42s)
• The divorce process took a while, and the ex-wife is described as a great person, but not compatible by the end. (21m53s)
• The career was also a contributing factor in the decision to leave, as it was difficult and required being away from home. (21m58s)
• The need to be closer to home led to a change in career path. (22m4s)

Mike's Transition To Becoming A Spy For Companies (22m9s)

• Corporate espionage, also known as strategic intelligence and investigations, involves gathering information for companies, which can include understanding what other companies are doing, assessing risks and threats, and investigating fraud or theft of intellectual property (22m9s).
• Companies may hire investigators to gather information when making an investment in a new country, assessing a potential joint venture partner, or trying to understand why they are not having success in a particular sector or region (22m41s).
• The work involves assessing problems, risks, and threats, and providing information to benefit the client, while staying within the legal parameters of each jurisdiction (22m54s).
• The scope of work can vary, from investigating a specific incident, such as theft of intellectual property, to providing general information about a company or region (23m1s).
• Investigators must be aware of the legal guardrails in each jurisdiction, as what is permissible in one country may not be in another (23m42s).
• The goal of strategic intelligence and investigations is to provide clients with the information they need to make informed decisions, while operating within the bounds of the law (24m5s).

Did Mike Ever Go Undercover? (24m10s)

• Going undercover involved physical disguises on occasion, which was enjoyable due to the acting aspect of it (24m10s).
• The individual loved getting completely absorbed in the acting part and didn't have a problem with it, unlike some people who may not be confident or comfortable wearing disguises (24m16s).
• Disguises could range from a full overhead mask to simpler disguises, and it was crucial to be comfortable wearing them to avoid drawing attention (24m33s).
• When walking down the street in disguise, people generally wouldn't suspect anything unless the person did something stupid (24m45s).
• A disguise was effective as long as the person wearing it didn't do anything to reveal their true identity (24m50s).
• The individual did wear a mask as part of their disguise, and they had access to Hollywood makeup artists who were part of a legendary disguise unit (24m54s).

Is Mike's Job Dangerous? (25m7s)

• The realization that company rules were absorbed from the CIA training process came over a short period of time after being involved in the private sector for a while (25m7s).
• These rules are not explicitly stated in a book, but rather implied and embedded in the CIA's training process (25m28s).
• The decision to leave the CIA was not financially motivated, as the pension and other benefits were left behind (25m49s).
• The plan after leaving the CIA was to go into the world of gathering information and security services, as it seemed like the best fit (26m9s).
• The ability to build a business was attributed to the training and rules absorbed from the CIA, which couldn't have been done without it (26m21s).
• A close friend, Nick, who came from SPS and MI5, was also involved in building the business, but the CIA training was a crucial factor in its success (26m29s).
• The goal is to share the transferable rules that were learned from the CIA and applied to building a successful business (26m59s).

What Are The Transferable Skills From The CIA To Business? (27m0s)

• Transferable skills from the CIA to business include defining the mission, which involves understanding the purpose and goals of the organization, and communicating that mission effectively to team members (27m10s).
• It is essential to hire smart people and explain the mission to them properly to ensure everyone is on the same page (28m17s).
• Knowing the risk appetite and communicating it to the team is crucial, as it determines what is allowable and what is not, and this applies to both the CIA and the private sector (28m37s).
• Understanding the operating environment is key, including market restrictions, competitors, government regulations, and instability issues in the area of operation (29m41s).
• Making decisions with the available information is vital, as waiting for perfect information can lead to missed opportunities or negative consequences (30m11s).
• The ability to make decisions quickly, referred to as "getting off the X" or avoiding the ambush site, is critical in both the CIA and business, as it allows for adapting to changing situations and avoiding potential threats (30m22s).
• Indicators of potential problems or opportunities must be recognized, and decisions must be made based on the available information, even if it is imperfect (30m49s).
• The CIA teaches the importance of making a decision with the available information, rather than getting paralyzed by the desire for more data (31m10s).

Why Is Decision-Making Crucial For Businesses? (31m27s)

• Decision-making is crucial for businesses and individuals, as it can significantly impact one's life and quality of life, and people often tend to overthink and overcomplicate things when faced with a decision (31m27s).
• The key to effective decision-making is to narrow down the options and not get bogged down in what could happen or what might happen, as this can lead to inertia and inaction (32m53s).
• It's essential to take the information available and make a decision, rather than getting lost in lists of positives and negatives or imagining scenarios that may not occur (33m25s).
• Sometimes, people need to take a chance and act, rather than waiting for the perfect opportunity or outcome, as this can lead to missed opportunities and stagnation (33m1s).
• If someone is unhappy in their job or relationship, it's essential to consider making a change, as staying in an unhappy situation can have negative consequences and impact one's quality of life (33m37s).
• It's crucial to live with the consequences of one's decisions and not dwell on what could have been, as this can make life tougher than it needs to be (34m56s).
• Effective decision-making involves distilling down options to a limited number, making a decision, and taking action, rather than getting caught up in analysis paralysis (34m20s).

Will The Election Have Global Consequences? (35m14s)

• The current moment in the United States is unique, with Donald Trump having just been elected as president, which is considered consequential in various ways (35m16s).
• Trump's victory was unexpected by many, and he performed well in several categories, including swing states and demographics, which was surprising to some (35m46s).
• The election results showed that Trump gained support from suburban voters and women voters, which was not expected, and this has reshaped people's understanding of the electorate in the short to midterm (36m30s).
• The Democratic Party does not seem to be self-aware or introspective about their loss, having spent months referring to a large portion of the population in derogatory terms, which may have contributed to their defeat (37m1s).
• It is unclear whether the Democratic Party will be able to reflect on their loss and make changes for the next election, which may impact their chances of winning (37m30s).
• The election of Trump may lead to changes in policies related to national security and foreign policy, which could have significant consequences (37m45s).

Will Trump End The Wars? (37m56s)

• There is speculation about whether Trump will end the war in Ukraine and Russia, as he previously stated he would call Putin and end it on day one during the election cycle (37m56s).
• The situation on the ground in Ukraine and Russia will determine whether Trump's efforts to end the war will be successful (38m31s).
• Ukraine is facing a difficult winter due to a massive percentage of its energy infrastructure being destroyed by Russia (38m40s).
• The resolve of the Ukrainian people is being tested, with a recent survey showing a 10% drop in citizens willing to fight indefinitely, from 73% at the beginning of the year to 63% last month (39m27s).
• Ukraine is losing soldiers at an alarming rate and has a significant disadvantage in terms of manpower, with Russia having a possible three to one advantage in available combatants (39m47s).
• The Russian military is gaining ground in the eastern part of Ukraine, particularly in the Donets region, with the front line being approximately 600 miles long (40m10s).
• If the war were to stop immediately, Russia would control around 20% of Ukraine (40m27s).

Why Did Russia Start The War? (40m34s)

• Russia started the war in Ukraine as part of Vladimir Putin's efforts to recreate the glory and strength of the former Soviet Union, with a goal of establishing a buffer zone between Russia and NATO (40m44s).
• Putin considers the Eastern part of Ukraine as a crucial area that belongs to Russia, and the front line stretches about 600 miles, with Russia having annexed Crimea, which is the only port for their Black Sea Fleet (41m56s).
• The Ukrainian military has been destroyed, and Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, with the Ukrainian government insisting on total victory and reclaiming all lost territory, including Crimea (42m21s).
• The war has been ongoing for nearly three years, with the Ukrainian military showing incredible courage and the population enduring significant hardships, including constant drone attacks on major cities (43m27s).
• A bright spot for Ukraine was a surprise offensive into Russian territory, which was the first time foreign troops had been on Russian soil since World War II, catching Putin and the Russian military off guard (44m4s).
• The Ukrainian military's ability to continue fighting is largely due to support from the US and NATO, which has provided significant aid and resources, surprising Putin who miscalculated the level of support Ukraine would receive (44m39s).
• NATO's support has been crucial in prolonging the conflict, with the EU also playing a significant role in providing aid and resources to Ukraine (44m45s).

Why Is It In NATO's Interest To Support Ukraine? (45m11s)

• China is not the main focus of this discussion, but rather the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, specifically Ukraine and Russia, and how it relates to NATO and the US (45m13s).
• The location of Ukraine, near Poland, and the history of Russian missiles flying errantly into Poland, informs the belief that if Putin takes Ukraine, he will not stop there (45m15s).
• The strong NATO support for Ukraine is due to the belief that Putin's inclination is not to stop at Ukraine, but to recreate the former Soviet Union (45m40s).
• Putin has already made verbal threats against Latvia, and has a solid ally in Belarus, which could potentially be used as a buffer zone against NATO (46m6s).
• The mindset of countries like Poland and Israel is shaped by their geographical location and the threats they face from neighboring countries, which can be difficult for outsiders to understand (46m22s).
• The historical example of Hitler's expansion in Europe during World War II is relevant to the current situation, as it shows how a leader's ambitions can escalate over time (47m1s).
• The US has a tendency to mirror its own values onto other nations, assuming that they will react similarly to concepts like freedom and democracy, which is not always the case (48m6s).
• The Ukrainian military has made incursions into Russian territory, holding around 500 square miles of land, although the exact amount varies depending on the source (48m31s).
• Russia has amassed around 40,000 troops, and North Korea has sent approximately 10,000-12,000 troops to Russia, with some already on the front lines, in support of Putin's efforts (49m2s).
• Putin's strategy may be to regain Russian territory before negotiating a deal, as he may not want to sit at the negotiating table with Zelinsky and NATO having control over parts of Russian territory (49m42s).
• The Ukrainian forces have surprised everyone by taking a strong stance, making a negotiated settlement more likely, but this may not result in Ukraine regaining all its territory (50m27s).
• The outcome of the conflict is crucial, and the next US administration's support for Ukraine will be critical in achieving a settlement and ending the war (51m54s).
• A pragmatic approach would assume that the settlement will involve Russia keeping some of the territory, with a possible demilitarized zone patrolled by UN peacekeepers to act as a buffer (52m22s).
• The US support is vital, and if the next administration cuts off all assistance and aid, it may impact the outcome of the conflict, although the rest of NATO will likely remain involved (51m55s).
• The situation is complex, and the Ukrainian population will need to be convinced of any settlement, making it essential for Zelinsky to sell the deal to his people (51m17s).
• The conflict is an incredible moment in time, with an invading force from Russia into an independent country, and its consequences will be significant (51m25s).
• The potential deal between Putin and other parties may include a condition that Ukraine will never join NATO (52m34s).
• This condition could be a part of Putin's deal, and it is uncertain how NATO will respond to it (52m37s).
• NATO has already made a guarantee to Ukraine that it will be included at some point, which could create a challenge in dealing with Putin's condition (52m49s).

How Does The Ukraine War End? (52m55s)

• The North Korean troops are in Russia because Putin desperately wants to avoid another conscription, which is highly unpopular with the Russian people, and instead is using the North Korean troops as a "meat grinder" operation to throw people at the front lines (52m56s).
• Kim Jong-un is making money from this deal by sending troops to Russia, getting combat experience for his troops, and receiving weapons and technology transfer from Russia (53m49s).
• Putin is getting bodies to throw at the front lines ahead of the next wave of Russian troops (54m7s).
• There is a rising sentiment in the United States that the country should stop sending money to Ukraine, with some people questioning why the US is bothering and why it's their problem (54m17s).
• The world is shrinking, and what's happening in Ukraine is being watched by other countries, including China, which is considering its own actions regarding Taiwan (55m1s).
• Xi Jinping is watching the US and NATO response to the Ukraine war and is considering when it would make sense for him to take action regarding Taiwan (55m35s).
• The Ukrainian war is likely to end with a negotiated settlement in 2025, with the lines looking similar to how they did before the invasion, and potentially some additional territory being held by the Russians (56m1s).
• A buffer zone may be established, potentially under the auspices of UN peacekeeping troops, with a no-fly zone or other measures to prevent further conflict (56m45s).
• The region in Russia is likely to go back to the Russians in the short term, potentially within the next month, as they are likely to launch a major offensive with 50,000 troops (57m7s).
• The North Korean troops are likely to be used quickly, as the longer they sit there, the more trouble they will have with command and control (57m41s).

What Is China's 2049 Plan? (57m56s)

• China has a plan referred to as the "2049 plan," which includes a timeline for the reunification or absorption of Taiwan, but the specifics of how this will be achieved are unknown, with possibilities ranging from a military operation to a soft takeover, similar to what happened in Hong Kong (58m4s).
• The timeline for taking over Taiwan has shrunk, with some believing it will happen during Xi Jinping's tenure, which seems likely given his solid grip on power and health (59m1s).
• Xi Jinping has consolidated power in China like no one since Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong, and he is serious about absorbing Taiwan, which is a project he considers important (59m31s).
• Xi Jinping's intentions should be taken at face value, unlike some other leaders who may make empty pronouncements, and his goal of making Taiwan part of the "motherland" again should be taken seriously (1h0m7s).
• Taiwan's significance to China is rooted in history, dating back to the time of Chiang Kai-shek and the separatist movement that led to Taiwan being established as a separate nation, making it an emotive subject for China (1h0m29s).
• Despite Taiwan's small size compared to China, its absorption is a priority for Xi Jinping, and the international community should pay close attention to his words and actions regarding this goal (1h0m15s).

Why Does The US Care About Taiwan? (1h0m50s)

• The US cares about Taiwan due to a combination of emotional and practical reasons, including its democratic institutions and importance as a chip manufacturing center (1h0m50s).
• The US values Taiwan as an ally and would not want to see a communist regime, such as China, destroy it, but it's unclear if the US would send boots on the ground to defend Taiwan in the event of a military action (1h1m9s).
• US presidents have consistently stated that they would defend Taiwan, but it's uncertain if they would follow through on this promise, with the situation being very different from the US's current involvement in Ukraine (1h2m3s).
• China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has been engaging in disinformation campaigns and other efforts to undermine Taiwanese leadership, making the situation a looming crisis (1h3m15s).
• The South China Sea, located below Taiwan, is another potential flashpoint for conflict, with China viewing it as its territory and the US having patrolled and maintained security in the area since World War II (1h3m55s).
• There have been increasing encounters between the Chinese Navy and the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, with China building artificial islands and pushing its claims to the area (1h4m26s).
• Some experts believe that China is already on a war footing with the West, although this is not necessarily in the classical sense of launching missiles, but rather in terms of its mindset and actions (1h5m3s).

Who Is The Real Enemy Of The West? (1h5m31s)

• The top concern for the West is China, due to its abilities, resources, and increasing aggressiveness in the region, as well as its desire to reshape the global structure and realign the world order with the US and its allies not at the top of the food chain (1h5m43s).
• The focus is not on an imminent shooting match with China, but rather on addressing the concerns and threats posed by the country (1h6m21s).
• In the short term, Iran is a significant concern, with the Iranian regime having been engaged in assassination plots to kill US officials, including the president-elect, Mike Pompeo, Mark Milley, Mark Esper, and Brian Hook (1h6m42s).
• Iran has a hit list of US officials and has been trying to get plots underway to target them (1h7m17s).
• The Iranian regime's objective is to wipe Israel from the face of the Earth, and they have set up proxies, such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas, to achieve this goal (1h8m6s).
• The proxies allow Iran to avoid direct accountability and being in the direct line of fire, but the problem will not be resolved as long as the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain their belief system (1h8m33s).
• The instability in the Middle East will continue as long as the Iranian regime believes that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the Earth (1h8m42s).
• Ceasefires in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon are not a solution to the problem, as they do not address the underlying belief structure of the Iranian regime and the IRGC (1h9m1s).
• The hope is that internally, the population will eventually say they have had enough and bring about change, as seen in protests against the new morality laws (1h9m18s).
• The treatment of women in Iran is not widely protested in the United States, with activists instead focusing on issues related to Israel (1h9m38s).
• The US has historically fueled protests and spread disinformation in countries like Iran to try and destabilize the government and facilitate a coup (1h9m48s).
• However, this approach has not been effective in recent years, with the US now focusing on getting information to the people and supporting protests if they develop (1h10m26s).
• The US and UN have been criticized for their ineffective responses to protests in Iran, with brutal crackdowns on dissent and little meaningful action taken by the international community (1h10m48s).
• One way the US has tried to get information to people in countries like Iran is through services like Voice of America, which aims to provide information about global events to people in countries with restricted access to information (1h11m11s).
• The use of technology has increased the possibilities for getting information to people in restricted countries, although the specifics of how this is done are outside the scope of the discussion (1h11m28s).
• In some cases, old-fashioned methods like dropping leaflets are still used, such as in South Korea's efforts to convince North Koreans that life could be better under a different government (1h11m35s).
• The Iranian government is seen as brutal and repressive, with the IRGC and mullahs exerting significant control over the population (1h11m57s).
• The international community's response to human rights abuses in countries like Iran is often inconsistent, with protests and criticism often focused on countries like Israel rather than the actual perpetrators of human rights abuses (1h12m13s).
• Israel is surrounded by a ring of proxies built by Iran that seek to destroy it, which affects how Israel views the situation and responds to it (1h12m25s).

What Happened At The Start Of The Israel Conflict? (1h12m34s)

• A significant event occurred in Israel where thousands of people rushed into the country, resulting in an estimated 12,200 deaths, and 250 people were dragged off into Gaza, which is surprising given Israel's paranoia about invasions and attacks, as well as its possession of the Iron Dome defense system (1h12m34s).
• The event was a long-term, well-orchestrated project by Hamas, with the involvement of Iran and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (RGC), which provided training to some Hamas fighters (1h13m1s).
• The RGC was fully aware of the project, and Hamas lulled the Israeli government and military into a false sense of security by pretending to be interested in building up their economy and improving their lives, rather than seeking violence (1h13m24s).
• This deception allowed Hamas to catch the Israeli government off guard, as they had become more focused on internal political battles and no longer viewed Hamas as an existential threat (1h13m58s).
• The Israeli government's failure to anticipate the attack was partly due to an intelligence failure, as Hamas deliberately stopped using compromised communication channels and instead used more secure methods, such as handwritten notes (1h14m22s).
• This change in communication tactics made it harder for Israel to intercept Hamas' plans, allowing the group to carry out their operation successfully (1h14m54s).

Is US Support Waning For Israel? (1h15m8s)

• The United States' perception of the situation in Israel and Palestine is changing, with support for Israel appearing to wane, similar to the perceived decline in support for Ukraine (1h15m9s).
• However, it's believed that support for Israel is less likely to decline significantly due to the country's unique place in the US psyche and the large Jewish American community (1h15m48s).
• The US has been a close ally of Israel for generations, which is not the case with Ukraine, providing a level of support that Ukraine does not have (1h16m2s).
• The decline in support for Ukraine is a greater concern, as it may embolden Russian President Putin to continue his aggressive actions, rather than negotiating a peaceful resolution (1h16m11s).
• To achieve peace, it's argued that sufficient support must be maintained to bring parties to the negotiating table, as Putin is unlikely to negotiate if he feels he's winning (1h16m26s).
• Despite Russia's current gains, it's believed that Putin will be unable to sustain his efforts over the long term, potentially within two to three years, due to the impact on the Russian population (1h17m0s).

How Does The Israel War End? (1h17m7s)

• The Israel war is likely to end with a ceasefire, but this will only be a temporary solution, similar to putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound, as it does not address the underlying issues (1h17m9s).
• A potential ceasefire could involve bringing in the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza, which would make it easier for other parties, such as Hezbollah, to back off and reduce tensions (1h17m25s).
• The Lebanese government may be able to deal with Hezbollah if there is an official ceasefire, as there is more of a structure in Lebanon to handle the problem (1h18m10s).
• Iran is unlikely to engage in a larger conflict with Israel, as they understand that this would likely involve the US, and they do not want to risk a war with the US (1h18m32s).
• The US has already shown a significant military presence in the region, including deploying carriers and B-52 bombers, which serves as a deterrent to Iran (1h18m43s).
• The Iranian regime's primary goal is to retain control, and they are unlikely to risk a war with the US and Israel that they cannot win (1h19m17s).
• If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would significantly change the dynamics of the situation, allowing them to hold their own weight and potentially leading to further instability (1h19m33s).
• Israel's recent retaliatory strike against Iran, targeting missile production facilities and air defense systems, was a strategic move that could impact Iran's ability to attack Israel and its proxies (1h19m50s).
• The destruction of Iran's air defense systems could set the stage for a potential future strike against their nuclear capabilities, if necessary (1h20m14s).
• It is unlikely that Iran currently has a nuclear weapon, as they would likely have announced it, and intelligence from various countries, including Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, suggests that they do not yet have this capability (1h20m40s).
• The Saudi and Jordanian governments would likely be opposed to an Iranian nuclear weapon, as they prioritize stability and economic prosperity in the region (1h21m6s).
• The problem with ceasefires is that they do not address the underlying issues, such as the Iranian regime's goal of destroying Israel, and therefore do not provide long-term stability (1h21m28s).

Why Is The US Concerned About Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons? (1h21m56s)

• The US is focused on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, partly because Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism and has shown a willingness to target US officials and interests (1h21m56s).
• Iran's regime has been responsible for the deaths of thousands of US soldiers, particularly through the development and deployment of IEDs and the training of Iraqi militias, led in part by the late General Qasem Soleimani (1h22m31s).
• The Iranian regime's hatred for the US is a significant concern, and their potential acquisition of a nuclear weapon would pose a substantial threat to US national security (1h22m48s).
• The current global situation is particularly sensitive due to the increasing normalization of the limited use of nuclear weapons, which is worrisome (1h23m16s).
• Russia's recent tactical nuclear drills on the border with Ukraine have contributed to the heightened concern about the potential use of nuclear weapons (1h23m23s).

Should We Be Concerned About Nuclear Weapons? (1h23m31s)

• The President of the United States has the sole responsibility and power to launch a nuclear weapon, without needing to consult or speak to anyone, including the House or the Senate (1h23m38s).
• The Russians created the "Dead Hand" system, an automated decision-making process that would assess damage from a first strike and respond without human intervention, although it is supposedly disarmed (1h24m4s).
• The "Dead Hand" system was designed to remove humans from the decision-making process of launching nuclear weapons in the event of a first strike that takes out the Kremlin leadership (1h24m27s).
• The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in weapon systems, such as drones, raises concerns about the potential for AI to supplant humans in decision-making processes (1h25m17s).
• Russia has been known to rattle the nuclear saber, with officials like Medvedev and Dimitri Peskov making statements and conducting tactical drills, while North Korea also possesses nuclear weapons (1h25m40s).

Who Has Nuclear Weapons? (1h25m52s)

• The countries that possess nuclear weapons include the United States, Russia, France, China, the UK, Pakistan, India, and Israel, although Israel's possession is assumed but not confirmed (1h25m54s).
• North Korea is also believed to have nuclear weapons, but the country lacks a delivery system, such as a missile capable of firing (1h26m12s).
• The Iranian nuclear program is difficult to understand due to limited specific intelligence, and the breakout window is estimated to be anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months (1h26m28s).

The Power Of A Nuclear Warhead (1h26m47s)

• A US nuclear-armed submarine has seven times the destructive power of all the bombs dropped during World War II, including two atomic bombs combined, and the US has 10 of those submarines (1h26m53s).
• The world is not closer to nuclear war now than it was during the height of the Cold War, when people literally thought a shooting match with the Soviet Union was imminent (1h27m14s).
• Although there are more nuclear-armed countries now, the level of communication and understanding between nations has increased, reducing the likelihood of nuclear war (1h27m52s).
• Threatening nuclear war and talking about it excessively can normalize the idea and lead to a very bad path (1h28m15s).
• If the Iranian regime were to obtain nuclear weapons, it would be an unknown player in the realm, causing concern and potentially leading to other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, seeking nuclear arms (1h28m27s).
• The acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran could lead to a tipping point, where other countries in the region and around the world feel the need to obtain nuclear arms, potentially including Israel confirming its nuclear status (1h29m6s).
• The proliferation of nuclear arms is a significant problem, and dealing with the reality of the situation is crucial, rather than hoping for a peaceful world (1h29m26s).

Will There Be A Nuclear Incident In The Next 100 Years? (1h29m32s)

• The world faces numerous risks, including solar flares, meteors, global warming, and nuclear incidents, with the latter being a significant concern due to the increasing number of nuclear weapons and unpredictable leaders (1h29m32s).
• The combination of many nuclear weapons, unpredictable leaders, and the disruption caused by AI technology increases the likelihood of a nuclear incident in the next 100 years (1h30m10s).
• A single mistake, such as a missile launch or a false alarm, could have devastating consequences, as seen in the example of Hawaii's missile detection system going off and causing widespread panic (1h30m35s).
• The risk of a nuclear incident is further increased by the possibility of a non-state actor or a hostile government obtaining a nuclear weapon, as in the case of a potential fallout in the Pakistan government (1h31m36s).
• The movement of nuclear arsenals, such as Russia's relocation of some of its arsenal to Belarus, also raises concerns about the potential for a nuclear incident (1h31m23s).
• The threat of a nuclear incident is exacerbated by the fact that it only takes one missile to fly or one person to think that a missile is flying to cause a disaster (1h30m22s).
• The example of a "Broken Arrow" incident, where a nuclear weapon goes missing, highlights the risks associated with the possession of nuclear weapons (1h30m27s).

What Are Mike's Biggest Concerns? (1h31m52s)

• The biggest concern is the next global conflict, which will be fought in a way that is difficult to understand, and will involve bringing pain to the Homeland immediately, with the goal of shutting down critical infrastructure and systems in the US (1h32m8s).
• China is a major concern, as they are motivated to get to the top and are developing a playbook to shut down everything they can in the US in the event of a global conflict, including power, water treatment facilities, fuel, pharmaceuticals, and food delivery (1h32m56s).
• The next global conflict will be fought in a way that involves critical infrastructure and will be brought to the Homeland, creating a level of pain that most people will not be willing to put up with for long (1h34m46s).
• China and Russia are mapping out US infrastructure, which could be used to shut down critical systems in the event of a conflict (1h35m15s).
• The conflict will also involve space, with the Chinese having developed directed energy weapons to knock out satellite systems, which would shut down GPS, the internet, and other critical systems (1h34m4s).
• The idea of bringing pain to the Homeland is to create a level of disruption that would make it difficult for the US to function, and would likely involve a combination of cyber attacks, physical attacks, and other forms of disruption (1h33m44s).
• The conflict will be fought in a way that is similar to World War I, with a focus on disrupting critical infrastructure and creating chaos, rather than traditional military battles (1h35m36s).
• History has a way of repeating itself, and humans have not changed, which is why the same mistakes are being made over again (1h36m11s).

How Is Mike Prepping For The Future? (1h36m27s)

• Preparing for the future involves being informed by reading as much as possible and paying attention to different sources of information, rather than just relying on one outlet that aligns with one's views (1h36m52s).
• It's essential to be aware of global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and understand how they can impact the world; for instance, the initial quarantine in China in October 2019 was a sign of the impending crisis (1h37m31s).
• Being prepared for natural crises, such as power outages or blackouts, is also crucial, and having a plan in place can help in case of emergencies (1h38m12s).
• Having a plan for emergency situations, such as knowing how to reach family members, especially children, in case of a natural disaster or other crises, is vital (1h38m25s).
• The current generation has become complacent due to the lack of wars in their lifetime, leading to a lack of preparedness for potential conflicts (1h38m34s).
• Every generation wants to make life easier for their children, but this can lead to diminishing returns, and it's essential to find a balance between comfort and preparedness (1h39m38s).
• The current focus on comfort and convenience, such as having a strong Wi-Fi signal, has led to a lack of concern for basic needs like food and clean water, making people unprepared for potential crises (1h40m1s).

Is This Misinformation Meant To Control Us? (1h40m7s)

• The current state of infighting in the United States and Europe, particularly over identity politics and woke issues, is reminiscent of Israel's situation where comfort led to internal conflicts, and this infighting is being fueled by disinformation campaigns (1h40m14s).
• Countries like China, Russia, and Iran have proven to be adept at running disinformation campaigns that prey on vulnerabilities in the US, EU, and elsewhere, often targeting issues like racism and woke issues to create division (1h40m37s).
• These disinformation campaigns can have a significant impact on the West, as people often don't take the time to verify the credibility of information before sharing it, allowing misinformation to spread quickly (1h41m24s).
• Those who think it's impossible for China and Russia to be involved in misinformation campaigns are encouraged to conduct fact-based research and look at a variety of think tanks and research institutes that focus on this issue (1h41m49s).
• There is a concerted effort by these countries to influence elections and undermine democracy, not necessarily to get a specific candidate to win, but to create chaos and erode trust in the democratic system (1h42m8s).

Did Russia Want Trump To Win? (1h42m22s)

• The question of whether Russia wanted Trump to win is complex, and it's possible that Russia made a mistake or miscalculated in their assessment of Trump's presidency (1h42m23s).
• The narrative that Putin wanted Trump to win because Trump would get out of Ukraine is not entirely accurate, as Trump has already shown willingness to engage with Ukraine and has authorized lethal aid to the country (1h42m55s).
• Putin's goals are more focused on ending the war in Ukraine and getting his economy back on track, rather than specifically wanting Trump to win (1h43m36s).
• If Trump ends the war in Ukraine, Democrats may criticize him for giving away Ukrainian territory, but the reality is that Putin annexed Crimea during Obama's administration and invaded Ukraine during Biden's administration (1h43m56s).
• Biden has taken a hardline stance against Russia and has withheld authorization to use long-range munitions to target Russian military sites, which could be seen as a positive development in the conflict (1h44m41s).
• The narrative that Putin wanted Trump to win is also influenced by the fact that Trump's campaign promised to end the war in Ukraine, which could be seen as a way for Putin to achieve his goals without having to throw more men at the front line (1h43m34s).
• If the war in Ukraine continues, Democrats may use it as a campaign issue against Trump, but if the war is ended, they may criticize Trump for giving away Ukrainian territory (1h45m26s).
• Ultimately, the most compelling narrative for Americans may be that Trump stopped the war and saved billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, rather than focusing on giving away territory (1h45m39s).
• Putin is likely aware that Trump is incentivized to stop the war in Ukraine, and may use this to his advantage in negotiations (1h46m14s).
• The Trump administration was the first to authorize lethal aid to Ukraine, which could be seen as a positive development in the conflict, and Putin is likely aware of this (1h46m32s).

Ad break (1h46m49s)

• A break-in occurred at the studio a couple of years ago, resulting in the loss of audio files for an episode featuring Mel, a former Spice Girl, due to the theft of cameras and key hard drives (1h46m54s).
• The studio had security at the time, but it only triggered an alarm once intruders were already inside the building (1h47m27s).
• Simply Safe is a security provider that offers active guard outdoor protection, notifying users and live monitoring agents of suspicious activity detected outside a building, especially unfamiliar faces (1h47m33s).
• Simply Safe's AI technology allows guards to trigger alarm systems or turn on spotlights to deter intruders from entering a property (1h47m45s).
• If Simply Safe had been installed at the time of the break-in, it's likely that the studio would have known about the intruders earlier and could have taken action to secure the building (1h47m53s).
• Simply Safe is offering an exclusive discount of 60% off new security systems for listeners in the United States, along with a free first month, when signing up for a select professional monitoring plan (1h48m8s).
• To customize a plan and take advantage of the offer, listeners can visit simply.com/diary (1h48m18s).

Is TikTok Being Used To Divide Us? (1h48m27s)

• TikTok has ties to China and its algorithm is highly addictive, making it a powerful platform for influencing users, with the ability to show content to a wide range of people or limit its visibility greatly, depending on the algorithm's assessment of the content's interest value (1h48m31s).
• The algorithm's power and the platform's addictive nature make it an ideal tool for foreign adversaries to divide people and spread disinformation, as it can create an echo chamber of interesting and emotionally charged content (1h49m39s).
• In the past, influencing hearts and minds required more traditional methods, such as recruiting local journalists or using radio stations, but technology has given covert action campaigns and propaganda a significant boost (1h50m29s).
• The concept of influencing opinion and changing hearts and minds remains the same, but technology allows for faster and more widespread dissemination of information, making social media platforms like TikTok potential tools for foreign adversaries (1h50m51s).
• The US has used similar tactics in the past, such as sending undercover entrepreneurs to start legitimate businesses in other countries, which could potentially be used to fund and promote social media apps or other influential platforms (1h50m59s).
• TikTok's ties to China and its inaccessibility to Chinese citizens within China raise questions about its potential use as a tool for foreign influence and its impact on users, particularly children (1h51m47s).
• China may be using social media apps like TikTok to harvest data and sow division in the United States, with the goal of creating conflict and undermining the country's stability (1h52m32s).
• The algorithm used by TikTok is powerful and can be used to manipulate users' feeds and create a sense of division, even if China is not directly collecting data from the app (1h52m40s).
• China has a history of economic espionage and loves to collect as much information as possible, which is why they may be targeting companies and individuals in the US (1h53m39s).
• The biggest concern with social media is the tendency for people not to question the information they see, and to share it without verifying its credibility, which can lead to the spread of disinformation (1h54m4s).
• Individuals have a responsibility to be curious and skeptical when consuming information on social media, and to take the time to verify the credibility of the information before sharing it (1h54m25s).
• Confirmation bias is a major problem on social media, where people tend to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs and share it without critically evaluating its credibility (1h54m46s).
• Disinformation is a problem on both sides of the political spectrum, and it's essential to be aware of it and to critically evaluate the information being shared (1h55m6s).
• The current problem is that people are no longer willing to listen to both sides and find common ground, with the concept of compromise becoming a negative term (1h55m23s).
• The situation is compared to the conflict in Ukraine, where people are entrenched in their positions and unable to find a middle ground, making it difficult to achieve meaningful progress (1h55m24s).
• The lack of willingness to compromise and listen to opposing views has resulted in a polarized environment where those in the center are either absent or silent (1h55m53s).

What Happens If Trump Dies In Office? (1h55m58s)

• There is a 33% chance that President Trump dies in office based on his age and BMI, which could lead to destabilization and people not believing it was an innocent event (1h55m58s).
• The size of the result in the election was important, regardless of who won, as it provided a convincing outcome to avoid struggles over the next four years (1h56m29s).
• The Democratic party's ability to introspect will play a role in how the next four years unfold, but the US government's resilience will likely prevail (1h57m2s).
• Historically, having control of both houses of Congress does not necessarily mean significant changes will occur, as the government is a large machine (1h57m30s).
• The narrative surrounding the election has become hyperbolic, making it difficult for people to absorb the reality of the situation (1h58m5s).
• Despite concerns, the nation is resilient, and drastic changes, such as mass deportations, are unlikely to occur (1h58m27s).
• A tougher border policy and deportations of individuals who have committed crimes and are in the country illegally may happen, but this is not a significant problem (1h58m44s).
• The reality of the situation is often not as extreme as anticipated, and a settlement in Ukraine and Russia may be possible if the next administration holds the line (1h59m28s).
• However, the conflict in Ukraine and Russia may persist, and dealing with the Iranian regime is a significant challenge (1h59m43s).

What Advice Would Mike Give To His Kids? (2h0m6s)

• Advice to children on how to be successful is to work a little bit harder than everyone else, as this can lead to exceptional results, and to have a strong work ethic, aside from being honest, loyal, and kind (2h0m21s).
• The importance of effort and hard work is emphasized, as it can help individuals achieve their goals, although it's acknowledged that not everyone can do everything, such as having the genetic build of LeBron James (2h1m24s).
• When it comes to people and business, the power of listening and letting someone else talk to understand them is highlighted as a remarkable and unappreciated skill (2h2m14s).
• To create a good salesperson, it's essential to have genuine empathy, real interest, and enjoyment of people, as these traits cannot be faked, and people are generally good at spotting disingenuous behavior (2h2m35s).
• Individuals are made up differently, and it's essential to recognize that not everyone will enjoy the same tasks or aspects of work, such as sales or business development, and it's crucial to play to people's strengths (2h3m28s).
• The only things that can be controlled are one's own actions and reactions, and it's essential to focus on these aspects, rather than trying to change others or circumstances (2h3m36s).
• The conversation shifts to a discussion on the importance of hard work, using the example of a sports academy where athletes can control how hard they work, but not their physical attributes like height (2h3m51s).
• The idea is that people often underestimate their capabilities and can accomplish more if they push themselves, as they may not be challenged or pushed to their limits (2h4m20s).
• The advice given is to be honest, work hard, and keep clients happy, with the phrase "Bob's your uncle" used to convey that success can be achieved through simple yet effective means (2h4m40s).
• Hard work is highlighted as a controllable factor that can create a disproportionate winning advantage, making it a key aspect of achieving success (2h4m59s).
• The importance of hard work is emphasized, despite it not being a popular or "sexy" topic, as people often seek shortcuts or tricks rather than putting in effort (2h5m12s).

The Guest's Last Question (2h5m31s)

• The guest attributes their success to having the best parents possible, specifically mentioning their dad as an amazing individual and role model who laid a foundation for their life (2h6m18s).
• The guest's dad was a hard worker who never complained and was fiercely loyal to their mother, teaching the importance of loyalty and work ethic (2h7m10s).
• The guest's parents were married for 50 years, providing a stable and loving environment that was never in question, and this loyalty played an important role in their success (2h7m22s).
• Meeting their wife, Emily, was also a significant factor in their success, as she is the smartest and funniest person they know, and they have been together for almost 20 years (2h6m32s).
• The guest's dad knew how much they appreciated the model of what it is to be a man that he provided, as they had a good dialogue and expressed their feelings to each other before he passed away (2h8m21s).
• The guest believes that the emotion of appreciation and love comes from humanity and is a natural feeling that arises from positive experiences and relationships (2h9m17s).
• The conversation begins with a discussion about family values and the importance of relationships, with the speaker expressing their appreciation for their brothers and the significance of family in their life (2h9m54s).
• The speaker shares a personal anecdote about writing a note and placing it in their brother's uniform pocket when he passed away, highlighting the emotional significance of family bonds (2h10m47s).
• The conversation shifts to the role of fathers as role models and the importance of passing on values such as loyalty, appreciation, duty, hard work, and honesty to their children (2h12m56s).
• The speaker reflects on their own father's behavior during conflicts with their mother, noting that he prioritized the family's well-being and took care of his responsibilities, even in difficult situations (2h12m16s).
• The speaker emphasizes the importance of teaching children about character and how to deal with the world, rather than solely focusing on material success (2h13m17s).
• The conversation concludes with an expression of gratitude for the speaker's work and a recognition of the importance of staying informed about global issues, despite being busy with personal pursuits (2h13m23s).
• The conversation is appreciated for its accessibility in delivering information, allowing people to gain a better understanding of the world and make informed decisions about their lives, including voting choices (2h13m36s).
• A secret about the team's attention to detail is shared, where a team member, Jima, changed the scent in the studio, and the entire office acknowledged it on their Slack channel, exemplifying the 1% improvements made on the show (2h14m13s).
• The concept of 1% improvement is discussed, highlighting its potential to change outcomes in life through small, consistent actions rather than drastic transformations or quick wins (2h14m34s).
• A diary is introduced, created over a 2-year process, which aims to help users identify, stay focused, and develop consistency with the 1% improvements that can change their lives (2h14m50s).
• The diary is described as beautiful, with pictures, inspiration, motivation, and interactive developments, and a limited run is announced, with a link to "thedairy.com" provided for those interested in purchasing one (2h15m0s).