How Far Away Is a Ceasefire? An Update on the Rafah Invasion | TED Explains the World w/ Ian Bremmer

09 May 2024 (7 months ago)

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israel aims to destroy Hamas' leadership, military capabilities, and fighters, while Hamas seeks to continue fighting and representing their ideology.
Despite international pressure and isolation, Israel feels no need to change its approach and has entered Rafa, though not yet fully invaded.
Hamas' leaders have suffered personal losses, but their ideology and well-being of their families influence their decisions.
The hostages held by Hamas complicate negotiations, as Israel will not accept a bait and switch, and Hamas' leaders rely on tunnels for protection.
A full-scale invasion of Rafa is still possible, as Israel considers it unfinished military business, despite American concerns for civilian safety and humanitarian aid.
The US is attempting to negotiate a ceasefire and prevent a full-scale invasion by providing guarantees for Palestinian civilians and humanitarian aid, but the conditions have not yet been met.
Israel is likely to evacuate more non-military men from Gaza and allow more humanitarian aid if a ceasefire is not reached.
The US is pressuring Israel to accept a temporary ceasefire, but the Israeli government is hesitant due to domestic political considerations.
Hamas is also reluctant to agree to a ceasefire as it would mean releasing some of the Israeli hostages they are holding.
The chances of a successful ceasefire are low, as negotiations are difficult and time-consuming, and the Israeli government is under pressure from right-wing elements.

Iran is unlikely to respond directly to the Israeli attack on Rafa, but may retaliate indirectly through its proxies in the region.
The recent escalation between Israel and Iran has raised the stakes for future Israeli actions against Iran's nuclear program, increasing the risk of a wider conflict.
The Biden administration, the Pentagon, and the White House did not anticipate the scale of Iran's response to Israel's actions.
Iran's intention was to breach Israeli defenses and cause significant damage, potentially leading to an escalation and a wider conflict involving the United States.
Iran's actions, including sending over 300 drones and targeting Israeli military bases, demonstrated their willingness to risk a limited confrontation with Israel.
The potential consequences of a full-scale conflict include disruption in the Straits of Hormuz, a spike in oil prices, and the involvement of the United States in a regional war.
Ongoing support from Iran to various militant groups, including Hezbollah, could lead to further strikes against Israel, the US, and the UK.
The situation is complicated by the need to evacuate over 100,000 Israelis from the north due to safety concerns, creating pressure for action against Hezbollah.

The global response to the conflict has been divided, with criticism of Israel's actions and a rise in anti-Semitism, which has been exacerbated by polarization, misinformation, and social media algorithms.
Hamas accepted the peace plan proposed by Egypt and Qatar, but Israel rejected it, leading to almost the entire world supporting Hamas's position.
Despite the lack of major terrorist attacks since the conflict, the speaker believes a generational change in support for anti-Israel and anti-US Islamist extremist terror is likely due to the events in Gaza.
Key indicators to watch for include the outcome of Bill Burns's trip to Israel, the extent of the Israeli offensive in Rafah, and any significant attacks by the Houthis.
The ongoing conflict is damaging President Biden politically, as he appears weak in his support for Israel and has failed to effectively address the issue.
Biden should have taken a stronger stance against Netanyahu and in support of Israeli democracy, while also providing military support to Israel and addressing the American hostages.
Biden's cautious and indecisive approach has contributed to the current situation, and the ongoing conflict could pose serious challenges for him in the upcoming US election.