Election Subversion 2024: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Introduction

• The topic of voting is discussed, with a mention of the "I Voted" stickers given to voters, and a specific example of a sticker designed by 12-year-old Jane Heus for Michigan voters (29s).
• The upcoming election is described as inexplicably close, with polls in seven key battleground states showing candidates within one or two points of each other (1m4s).
• Predictions are made for Election night, including the possibility of depraved tweets, Nate Silver tweeting about the results, and Donald Trump not conceding graciously if he loses (1m22s).
• Trump is quoted as saying he will only accept the election results if it's a "fair and legal and good election," and has been laying the groundwork to cry foul if he loses (1m44s).
• Trump also claims that his opponents "cheat like nobody can cheat" and that he will win easily if cheating is kept to a minimum (1m54s).
• The phrase "election interference" has been co-opted by Trump and his campaign to refer to various issues, including his own indictments and the fed's decision to cut interest rates (2m36s).
• Trump has posted a message with his mug shot, saying "Election Interference Never Surrender," which is described as a terrible mug shot (2m45s).
• The possibility of a repeat of the mess that happened in the last election is discussed, especially since Trump has not faced any real consequences for his actions (3m5s).
• Trump has even bragged that his poll numbers have gone up since his indictment, which is described as a crazy situation (3m18s).

The 2020 Election and its Aftermath

• The 2024 US election is just over three weeks away, and there have been attempts to subvert it, including lies to undermine confidence in the process, steps to sow chaos in voter rolls, and groundwork laid to turn the post-election period into a nightmare (3m58s).
• The 2020 US election saw numerous attempts to undermine its legitimacy, including Trump refusing to concede, Rudy Giuliani's claims of voter fraud, and conspiracy theories about Italian defense contractors and Cyber Ninjas auditing ballots in Arizona (4m13s).
• One conspiracy theory claimed that 40,000 ballots were flown into Arizona from Asia and stuffed into ballot boxes, with Cyber Ninjas attempting to prove foreign interference by looking for bamboo in ballot paper (4m34s).
• Despite these attempts, federal election infrastructure officials called the 2020 election the most secure in American history (5m23s).
• Since then, there have been some positive developments, including Congress passing an act that prevents a vice president from throwing out votes they don't like, and Trump not being an incumbent this time (5m33s).
• However, the false claims of election fraud have stuck, with a January poll finding that more than a third of Americans still do not accept Biden's victory as legitimate (6m4s).

Lies and Misinformation about Non-Citizen Voting

• Trump and his allies have been ramping up their lies as election day approaches, including the claim that many non-citizens will be voting, which is nothing new for Trump or Republicans but is being pushed like never before (6m13s).
• This claim is based on the idea that many illegal immigrants are being encouraged to vote, despite not being able to speak English or knowing what country they're in, and is caked in racism (6m37s).
• Conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation are supporting this claim, including the Oversight Project, which started this summer (7m18s).
• A video was released claiming that 14% of respondents at the Elliot Norcross apartment complex in Norcross, Georgia, admitted to being non-citizens registered to vote, which was later boosted by Elon Musk and went viral (7m26s).
• The video's claims were disputed, as the Overset Project admitted it was unable to find the people they talked to on the state voter rolls, and state investigators found no evidence that any of the seven people on the tape had ever registered to vote (8m15s).
• One of the women featured in the video confirmed she wasn't registered to vote and only said she was because she wanted the interviewers to leave her alone (8m28s).
• Despite the lack of evidence, the video's creators claimed that if the 14% rate held true statewide, it would equate to over 47,000 non-citizens registered to vote in Georgia (8m51s).
• However, an analysis of 25 years of Georgia's elections found that none of the 1,600 people who tried to register to vote but couldn't verify their citizenship had cast ballots (9m3s).
• A nationwide database of 1,500 proven instances of voter fraud found just 68 documented cases of non-citizens voting, with only 10 involving people living in the country illegally, over the past four decades (9m17s).
• Maria Bozo also spread a claim that DMV offices in Texas were jam-packed with "illegals" getting licensed and registered to vote, but this claim was based on a friend of a friend's wife and lacked any evidence (9m53s).
• Claims of voter registration tents being set up outside a Texas DMV office were debunked, as Texas does not have a DMV and the Department of Public Safety, where driver's licenses are issued, had no such setup (11m16s).
• The local GOP chair explained that all voter registrations are uploaded to the Texas Secretary of State's database to verify applicants' eligibility to vote, including citizenship, and there had been no recent instances of ineligible individuals attempting to register in that county (11m33s).

Voter Fraud Investigations and Their Impact

• Texas AG Ken Paxton announced an investigation into reports of organizations illegally registering non-citizens to vote, despite the lack of evidence, creating a pattern of loudly starting voter fraud investigations that often amount to nothing (11m57s).
• Paxton's office also announced a separate investigation into allegations of election fraud and vote harvesting targeting members of LULAC, the nation's oldest and largest Latino civil rights organization (12m19s).
• An 87-year-old LULAC volunteer, Lydia Martinez, had her home raided as part of a voter fraud investigation, with up to eight officers showing up at her home, taking her phone and laptop, and questioning her for hours (12m40s).
• A federal judge recently shut down the investigation, saying it was unconstitutional, but the fact remains that lies and investigations have real consequences, with 51% of adults concerned about non-citizen voting in the upcoming election (13m36s).

Challenges to Voter Eligibility

• Well-funded groups, such as the Election Integrity Network, are actively trying to "clean up" voter rolls, with their head explaining that they need to focus on the threat of illegals voting in November to prevent the election from being stolen (14m2s).
• The group's plan involves having citizen action, looking at DMVs and voter rolls, and creating a national neighborhood watch to find pockets of non-citizens added to the rolls (14m26s).
• The group's approach has been criticized, with concerns that it may lead to racial profiling, as they scrutinize voter rolls looking for anyone they deem suspicious (15m1s).
• Activists are using tactics to challenge voter eligibility, including searching for specific surnames, which can be considered racist, and using computer programs to automate the process of finding voters to challenge (15m5s).
• These programs can troll through various public databases, including voter registration data, business records, change of address databases, and obituaries, to find people to challenge (15m33s).
• Users can make thousands of challenges to voter eligibility with just a few clicks and send them to local election officials, who often claim they're helping election boards do their jobs (15m51s).
• However, officials on the receiving end of these challenges say it's exhausting, as they're usually just replicating work that's already happening, and most of the challenges are redundant or flawed (16m2s).
• One election official reported receiving a couple of thousand names to look up, with roughly 75-80% of the names already dealt with, and the rest being caught by safeguards built into the system (16m12s).
• These challenges can create busy work for election officials, who don't need the extra workload, and can also generate false positives, such as flagging voters who share the same name and birthdate but are actually different people (17m9s).
• Getting flagged can be intensely frustrating for voters, as seen in the case of Daniel Moss, who was challenged by someone he doesn't know and had to defend his existence (17m22s).
• A single person, such as Nancy, can cause a huge amount of problems by sending in thousands of challenges, as seen in the case of an exhausted election official who receives something from her every day (18m3s).
• Challenges have been particularly intense in swing states, and in one case, a county clerk improperly cut over a thousand voters from their roles in response to challenges from a single 79-year-old resident (18m36s).
• In Georgia, a new state law allows anyone to file an unlimited number of challenges against voters in their county, which must be addressed within 10 business days. Since the law's enactment, over 180,000 challenges have been filed, mostly by just six individuals. These challenges often involve minor discrepancies, such as small mismatches in mailing addresses. (18m50s)
• Many of these challenges are seen as frivolous and time-consuming for voters, with examples including a man challenged for a minor address error and a woman challenged due to a street name change. Although most challenges fail, they can intimidate or confuse voters, potentially leading to disenfranchisement. (19m20s)

Changes to Election Boards and Certification Processes

• Changes have been made to boards that certify elections, particularly in Georgia, where Republicans control the governorship and legislature. They have reshaped the state elections board, installing three members who have questioned the 2020 election results. These members have been publicly praised by Donald Trump. (20m43s)
• One of the new board members, Rick Jeff, expressed interest in joining a future Trump administration, indicating potential political bias. All three members have denied working for Trump, with one member claiming to have faced significant personal attacks. (22m2s)
• In August and September, the election board passed new rules that make it easier to sow doubt in the certification process, including a full hand count of ballots in each precinct, which must be done by three individuals per precinct within a short timeframe (22m35s).
• Experts have explained that this rule has the potential to cause chaos, as hand-counting large numbers of ballots is a tedious process prone to human error, which can be exploited to spread lies and further distrust in elections (22m47s).
• Dozens of election officials have stated that a hand count of all ballots will be physically impossible in all but the smallest counties, but this rule might trigger another new rule that bars counties from certifying the election until officials can review an investigation of every precinct with inconsistent totals (23m58s).
• The new rule gives county boards the power to exclude entire precincts from the vote totals if they think they're fraudulent, which is a concern given some local election officials have shown a propensity for conspiracy theories, such as the election chair in Spalding County, Georgia (24m15s).
• Another new rule empowers county election board members to conduct "reasonable inquiry" into allegations of voting irregularities without setting deadlines or defining what a "reasonable inquiry" means, which could allow rogue election officials to drag inquiries past certification deadlines (24m46s).
• Experts say that this "reasonable inquiry" rule could have severe consequences, including allowing local officials in a handful of rural counties to exclude enough votes in Georgia to affect the outcome of the presidential race (25m51s).
• Early in-person voting in Georgia starts soon, but the definition of "reasonable inquiry" has still not been defined, despite the potential for this rule to be exploited (25m29s).

The Potential for Chaos and Legal Battles in 2024

• It is likely that the 2024 election will see a repeat of the issues experienced in the previous election, including lies about immigrants voting, mass voter challenges, and new processes to slow down and question vote counts (26m10s).
• Unless there is a landslide victory, the outcome of the election may not be known on November 5th, and in the case of a narrow win for Harris in Georgia, legal battles may stretch into December or beyond (26m29s).
• Trump will likely try to exploit any delay or uncertainty in the election outcome, unless he wins outright, in which case he will claim to have triumphed over a rigged system (26m45s).

Preparing for the Election and Dealing with Misinformation

• To prepare for the election, it is recommended to make a plan to vote and help others do the same, as a close race will make it easier for Trump to sow discord (26m58s).
• Voters should check to ensure their voter registration is current, using their state's voter registration verification tools, and vote early if possible to resolve any registration issues before election day (27m12s).
• Voting by mail requires using a tracking tool to monitor the ballot, which can be found on a specific website (27m25s).
• It is essential to be resilient against the misinformation and toxic nonsense that Trump and his allies may spread, which could continue for months (27m32s).
• Despite the chaos, the US electoral system's guardrails held up in the last election, and it is crucial to ensure they hold up again in the 2024 election (27m55s).