Saagar Enjeti: Trump, MAGA, DOGE, Obama, FDR, JFK, History & Politics | Lex Fridman Podcast

Introduction (0s)

• Franklin D. Roosevelt's first 100 days in office saw a significant amount of legislation passed, and he was able to bring Congress and the Senate together to achieve this, despite the fact that legislation takes a long time to put into place (1s).
• FDR's approach was different from that of his predecessor, Herbert Hoover, who was seen as a "do nothing" president, and FDR's daily fireside chats and willingness to try different programs helped to inspire America and ultimately led to the country's recovery from the Great Depression (17s).
• FDR's character, developed after he contracted polio, gave him the strength to persevere through personal challenges and transfer his calm demeanor and fighting spirit to America (43s).
• Other presidents, such as Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Theodore Roosevelt, also had personal problems, but they had good judgment, which is not necessarily intrinsic to their personal character (1m7s).
• John F. Kennedy is an example of a president with good judgment, as seen in his handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, where he avoided nuclear war and deserves eternal credit (1m24s).
• The book "The Essence of Decision" by Graham Allison lays out theories of how government works and explains that Washington is a creature with traditions and institutions that don't care about individuals, including the president (1m43s).
• The book presents three schools of thought on how Kennedy arrived at his decision during the Cuban Missile Crisis: organizational theory, bureaucratic politics theory, and the great man theory (2m25s).
• Kennedy's experiences, such as his time in World War II and his heroism in saving a wounded man, contributed to his development as a smart and capable leader (2m43s).
• Kennedy's book "Why England Slept," written in 1939, is still considered a significant text that describes why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement (3m1s).
• A notable historical event is the Potsdam Conference, where Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and a 26-year-old John F. Kennedy were all in the same room with Joseph Stalin, showcasing the story of America's complex history (3m29s).
• The Potsdam Conference attendees included three U.S. presidents: Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and John F. Kennedy, who was a journalist at the time (3m34s).
• A quote from Roger Ailes highlights the idea that people often prefer to feel informed rather than being genuinely informed, which is a concept explored in the book "The Loudest Voice in the Room" by Gabriel Sherman (3m52s).
• Saagar Enjeti is a political commentator, journalist, and co-host of the podcasts "Breaking Points with Krystal Ball" and "The Realignment" with Marshall Kosloff (4m16s).
• Saagar Enjeti is known for being well-read, having read thousands of history books, which influences his analysis of the world (4m25s).
• The conversation with Saagar Enjeti explores the history of various ideological movements that have led to the current political moment, referencing numerous books that will be linked in the description for those interested (4m37s).

Why Trump won (5m6s)

• The reasons behind Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election are multifaceted, with some less obvious factors contributing to his win (5m7s).
• One of the easiest explanations is the wave of anti-incumbent energy around the world, as seen in a Financial Times chart showing that all anti-incumbent parties suffered major defeats for the first time since World War II (5m34s).
• At an individual level in the United States, a simple explanation is that Joe Biden was old, unpopular, and faced high inflation, which is one of the highest determiners of people switching their votes (5m59s).
• However, the reasons for Trump's victory go deeper, involving the evolution of the modern left and its collapse, as well as the unique individual that is Donald Trump (6m13s).
• Trump's victory makes him the most important and transformative figure in American politics since FDR, with a lasting impact on the country's politics (6m50s).
• In 2028, there will be 18-year-olds eligible to vote who cannot remember a time when Donald Trump was not a central figure in American politics (6m57s).
• Trump's ability to realign American politics is attributed to his uniqueness as a political figure, who was able to activate a multi-racial working-class coalition and split American lines along the question of whether one attended a four-year college degree institution or not (7m49s).
• Trump is considered one of the most racially depolarizing electoral figures in American history, having won a significant portion of the Latino vote and running up the table for young men (8m18s).
• The modern left faces a fundamental problem due to the full realignment in American politics, which has erased conversations around gerrymandering, the Electoral College, and the electoral bias towards Republicans (9m2s).
• Trump's achievement of winning the popular vote for the first time since 2004 is a shocking and landmark achievement for a Republican (9m18s).
• The country's dynamic nature is evident in the changing minds of people, with red states going blue, blue states going red, and swing states changing, making it an inspiring and interesting place to cover and think about (9m43s).

Book recommendations (10m7s)

• The evolution of movements throughout American history is fascinating, with some taking off and holding power for a long time, while others are started by a small number of people and controlled by a small number of people, and some are mass movements that fit into the constraints of a two-party system (10m9s).
• The 2020 US presidential election can be viewed as a class struggle, with Kamala Harris increasing her vote share and winning households over $100,000 or more, and Donald Trump winning households under $100,000, but this perspective is not entirely accurate as it is more of a proxy for four-year college degree and education (11m6s).
• The book "Coming Apart" by Charles Murray highlights how the cultural milieu people swim in when they attend a four-year college degree affects their life trajectory, including where they move to, who they marry, and what type of grocery store they go to (11m23s).
• Charles Murray's "bubble quiz" is a useful tool to determine how in or out of touch someone is with mainstream culture, with questions such as what the word "Branson" means to you, and answers ranging from Richard Branson to Branson, Missouri, to it meaning nothing (11m48s).
• The cultural divide in America is not just about rural vs. urban, but also about the type of media people consume, the books they read, and the things they value in life, with the internet playing a significant role in shaping these cultural differences (13m4s).
• The 2016 US presidential election was, in part, a reaction to elitism and a cultural feeling that the Democratic party did not understand the struggles of working-class voters, with Donald Trump's campaign activating and bringing these voters to the polls (13m22s).

History of wokeism (13m44s)

• The concept of wokeism and anti-wokeism is complex and multifaceted, and it's difficult to pinpoint its exact impact on electoral outcomes (13m44s).
• Wokeism can be encountered in various forms, such as in cultural media, where it is often presented as a social agenda, particularly in the representation of marginalized groups (14m20s).
• This cultural representation is often seen as a way to showcase progress and promote acceptance, but it can also be perceived as an attempt to impose a particular ideology (14m53s).
• Affirmative action, which has its roots in the 1960s, has played a significant role in shaping the economy and understanding of discrimination in the US (15m12s).
• The passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 marked a significant turning point in the US, creating a new legal regime and understanding of race, and its impact is still felt today (15m36s).
• The concept of affirmative action has been explored in various books, including "The Origins of Woke" by Richard Hanania and "The Age of Entitlement" by Christopher Caldwell (15m23s).
• Another book, "Born Fighting" by Senator Jim Webb, provides insight into the history of the Scots-Irish people and how affirmative action and racial preferences affected the white working class (16m17s).
• The managerial revolution, as described by James Burnham, also played a role in shaping the current state of affairs, particularly in the context of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and affirmative action in the business world (16m46s).
• The idea that representation itself is the only thing that matters gained significant traction around 2014, leading to a surge in the promotion of DEI and affirmative action in the highest echelons of business (17m8s).
• The 2016 election of Donald J. Trump is not necessarily a statement that the "wokeism" movement is dead, as wokeism is an amorphous belief that has worked its way through institutions for almost 40 or 50 years and is difficult to define. (17m12s)
• Wokeism is effectively a religion and means different things to different people, making it challenging to pinpoint its exact definition. (17m33s)
• The next Democratic nominee may not speak in "academic language," but Kamala Harris did move away from being "woke" during her campaign, although she was punished for past actions and a general cultural feeling that she and her team did not understand certain groups. (17m51s)
• The concept of "woke" is tied to an "Equity mindset," which prioritizes equal outcomes for everybody, as opposed to equality of opportunity, a more colorblind philosophy. (18m15s)
• The term "woke" does not mean a whole lot, and it's essential to get specific about what it looks like in operation, which includes affirmative action and racial preferences. (18m47s)
• Affirmative action and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives are examples of a "woke mindset" that may not work well in practice due to being anti-meritocracy and anti-American. (19m15s)
• DEI and woke ideologies make sense in some multiethnic countries with heterogeneous populations, but they do not mesh well with the American dream, which emphasizes equality of opportunity and leaving racial preferences behind. (20m4s)
• Meritocracy can have a preference for people with privileged backgrounds, which is a point that left-wingers often make, and it is acknowledged that this is true (20m35s).
• Increasing equality of opportunity for everyone is seen as a way to make sure that they all have a chance at achieving the American dream, without erasing meritocracy, hard work, and other values associated with the American character (20m46s).
• The ideologies of meritocracy and equality of opportunity are at odds with ideologies like wokeism and racialism, which are prevalent in Europe and Asia but do not mix well in America (21m2s).

History of Scots-Irish (21m13s)

• The Scots-Irish played a significant role in shaping America, with many of the things that identify the American Spirit being defined by this relatively small group of people, as described in Jim Webb's book, with their model summarized as "fight, sing, drink, and pray" (21m13s).
• The Scots-Irish are characterized by fierce individualism, a deep distrust of government and elites, and a tradition of bottom-up governance, with a 2,000-year military tradition that made up 40% of the Revolutionary War army (21m52s).
• They produced numerous military leaders, including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, George S. Patton, and several presidents, such as Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton (22m1s).
• The Scots-Irish also contributed to the cultural legacy of country music, but they don't often receive the recognition they deserve due to the blanket application of the term "white" to various European immigrant groups (22m16s).
• The Scots-Irish were among the original settlers in America, particularly in Appalachia, and their contribution to the fighting spirit and individualism is significant, with a Frontier mindset that comes from them (22m45s).
• Reading Jim Webb's book can help understand how white working-class voters went from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump, as it combines with issues like affirmative action, distrust of elites, and feeling undervalued (23m2s).
• The Scots-Irish played a significant role in the Revolutionary War and the Civil War, and their cultural contribution is substantial, with many Americans adopting their ideas and culture as their own (23m35s).
• The fierce individualism and populism that represent American democracy can be traced back to the Scots-Irish, with their "screw you" attitude and strong sense of individualism (24m6s).
• JD Vance's book "Hillbilly Elegy" helped American elites understand the support for Trump among certain groups, highlighting the importance of the Scots-Irish culture and history (24m28s).
• The 2016 US presidential election was shocking to the elite, as Donald Trump won despite being considered an unlikely candidate, and JD Vance's book "Hillbilly Elegy" helped people understand the culture and experiences of those who voted for Trump (24m41s).
• JD Vance's book explores the Scots-Irish heritage and the legacy of the Appalachian culture, which played a significant role in Trump's election, and credits Jim Webb for writing about the history of these people and their original fight against oppressors in Scotland and Ireland (24m55s).
• The Scots-Irish heritage and militant spirit were brought to America and influenced populist presidents like Andrew Jackson, ultimately contributing to the rise of Donald Trump (25m17s).
• JD Vance's book "Hillbilly Elegy" was exciting to read, and it's surprising that the same author became a prominent figure in American politics (25m27s).
• JD Vance's evolution from a traditional conservative to a champion of Donald Trump is a fascinating story, as he initially wrote about the benefits of payday loans but likely changed his position over time (26m47s).
• Vance's ideological evolution reflects the rise of the modern left and the Republican party's coalescence around Donald Trump as a legitimate figure against cultural leftism and elitism (27m27s).
• Vance's transformation from a traditional conservative to a Trump supporter is also a story of the normalization of Trump's ideology, which eventually led to his election in 2024 (27m45s).
• Vance's personal story, from writing "Hillbilly Elegy" to becoming the Vice Presidential nominee, is surreal and marks a significant moment in American history (26m1s).
• The 2024 election was influenced by various factors, including the failures of the Biden Administration, the "great awokening," and the evolution of JD Vance's ideology (26m32s).

Biden (27m51s)

• Joe Biden is considered one of the worst Presidents in modern history, and this assessment is based on his own goals and aspirations rather than an objective evaluation of his accomplishments (27m57s).
• Biden has been the same person throughout his entire political career, characterized as a "C student who thinks he's an A student" with a chip on his shoulder against the elites, which has played to his benefit in his original election to the United States Senate and throughout his career (28m21s).
• A book recommendation, "What It Takes," written in 1988, features a chapter on Joe Biden and his plagiarism scandal, showcasing his arrogance and belief in himself as the center of attention (28m48s).
• Biden's presidency failed due to his individual character and arrogance, as he was elected in 2020 as a "transitional president" but lost his faculties and surrounded himself with sycophants who failed to provide him with honest input (29m10s).
• Despite some accomplishments, Biden's presidency will be remembered for high inflation, and the perception that he was never up to the job, lacking the vigor and bias to action that is essential for a modern president (30m6s).
• In contrast to Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was perceived as a vigorous commander-in-chief during the Great Depression, Biden's lack of action and energy has contributed to his downfall (30m32s).
• Biden's own narcissism and misplaced belief in himself, as well as his accidental rise to the presidency, ultimately led to his failure, including his inability to achieve his primary goal of defeating Donald Trump and preventing his return to the White House (31m24s).
• Biden's original campaign speech in 2019 highlighted his desire to defeat Donald Trump, but he ultimately failed to achieve this goal, which was his primary motivation for running for president (31m41s).

FDR (31m54s)

• FDR's charisma and ability to unite the entire country, fighting for the people, are key aspects of his legacy, rather than specific policies (31m56s).
• FDR's authenticity and willingness to fight for the people resonated with many Americans, who saw him as a leader who genuinely cared about their well-being (32m15s).
• FDR's first 100 days in office were marked by a significant amount of legislation, demonstrating his ability to bring Congress and the Senate together to pass laws (32m31s).
• In contrast to his predecessor, Herbert Hoover, who was seen as out of touch with the struggles of the common people, FDR was able to connect with Americans through his fireside chats and willingness to try new programs (32m55s).
• FDR's perseverance and determination, developed after contracting polio, inspired Americans and helped the country recover from the Great Depression (33m14s).
• FDR's early years in office, from 1933 to 1937, are considered one of the most remarkable periods in American history, during which he implemented significant reforms and was seen as a strong leader (33m40s).
• FDR's leadership style during this period was often described as dictatorial, but he was a "good dictator" who was able to bring about positive change and was widely supported by the American people (33m51s).

George W Bush (33m55s)

• George W. Bush is considered the worst president in modern history due to his horrible wars, particularly the Iraq War, which is seen as one of the worst foreign policy mistakes in American history (34m7s).
• Bush's judgment led to a war of his own choosing, which was a disaster and set the US up for failure (34m30s).
• He is also seen as one of the worst presidents ever, and his actions are considered responsible for the rise of Donald Trump (34m38s).
• Arrogance and narcissism are traits that can be found in many presidents throughout American history, including Joe Biden and Donald Trump (34m52s).
• However, these traits can sometimes be beneficial, as it takes a certain level of confidence and self-belief to want to be president (35m4s).
• To become president, one has to give up everything, including personal time and relationships, and have an insane level of narcissism to believe they are better than everyone else (35m35s).
• The pursuit of the presidency can also be driven by personal characteristics and foibles, leading to the idolatry of the self (36m11s).
• The life of a politician, particularly a president, is extremely demanding, with every night spent at dinners with potential donors, friends, and people who can connect them, and every moment spent on the phone or with staff (35m40s).

LBJ (36m18s)

• Lady Bird Johnson once said that everything in the White House revolved around her husband, President Johnson, and their daughters, with her taking the scraps, illustrating how his political career and family took priority over personal life (36m18s).
• President Johnson's schedule was often filled with meetings and events, leaving little time for his children, and he eventually died from a massive heart attack, likely due to the stress and pressure of his position (36m36s).
• Despite his personal struggles, Johnson is considered one of the greatest politicians in history, and his ability to make good judgments was likely influenced by his experiences and character (36m55s).
• Other notable politicians, such as Nixon, Teddy Roosevelt, and FDR, also had personal problems but demonstrated good judgment in their decision-making, suggesting that judgment is not always directly tied to personal character (37m25s).
• JFK is cited as an example of a president with excellent judgment, particularly during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which he navigated successfully despite his own personal flaws (37m45s).
• JFK's good judgment is attributed to his experiences, including his time in World War II and his relationship with his father, as well as his inquisitive mind (38m6s).
• The importance of studying judgment and decision-making in politics is emphasized, with the book "The Essence of Decision" by Graham Allison recommended as a foundational text in political science (38m52s).
• The conversation also touches on the idea that Washington, D.C. is a city with its own traditions and institutions that can be resistant to change, often requiring significant events or strong leaders like Teddy Roosevelt to drive reform (39m15s).
• The presidency has the potential to transform the country, but it requires an extraordinary individual to achieve significant change (39m39s).
• The Cuban Missile Crisis is an example of a pivotal moment in history where the decision-making process of a leader, in this case John F. Kennedy, was crucial (39m44s).
• There are different schools of thought on how Kennedy arrived at his decision during the Cuban Missile Crisis, including the organizational Theory, the bureaucratic politics Theory, and the great man Theory (39m52s).
• John F. Kennedy's experiences in World War II, including his time as a first lieutenant and his heroic actions in saving a wounded man, contributed to his development as a leader (40m5s).
• Kennedy was a smart and accomplished individual who wrote a book in 1939 called "Why England Slept," which analyzed the British policy of appeasement (40m26s).
• At the age of 23, Kennedy wrote "Why England Slept," demonstrating his intelligence and insight, and the book is still considered a significant text today (40m46s).
• Kennedy was present at the Potsdam Conference as a journalist, where he was in the same room as Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Joseph Stalin, and other notable figures (40m55s).
• The story of Kennedy's rise to power is an example of how unexpected individuals can emerge as leaders (41m15s).
• Humility may be a necessary quality for greatness, as demonstrated by Kennedy's self-awareness and recognition of his own limitations (41m30s).

Cuban Missile Crisis (41m35s)

• The book "Essence of Decision" by Graham Allison presents three models of how government works: the rational actor model, the organizational process model, and the government politics model, which are all true to some degree in explaining how decisions are made within the government machinery (41m35s).
• Donald Trump's approach to decision-making involves surrounding himself with people who have differing views, such as John Bolton, to make himself appear as the most rational individual in the room (42m35s).
• Trump's theory is that having "psychopaths" like John Bolton in the room can be beneficial in negotiations, such as with Kim Jong-un, as it can instill fear and make him appear more rational (43m15s).
• However, Trump may not fully understand that most decisions made in government never reach the president's desk, and that the National Security Adviser plays a crucial role in coordinating the inter-agency process (43m39s).
• The National Security Adviser's job is not to provide personal opinions, but to convene meetings and provide options for the president to consider, which can be influenced by various groups and agencies (44m21s).
• A notable quote from Obama highlights the challenges of decision-making in government, stating that by the time a problem reaches his desk, it is because nobody else can solve it, and that all the problems that reach him are hard and have no easy answers (43m47s).
• Trump's approach to decision-making may not be effective in reigning in the influence of advisors who have differing views, particularly in situations where the president is not directly involved in the decision-making process (44m8s).
• When a president like Trump enters office, they are presented with options by their advisors, but the real power lies with the person who decides what those options are, as seen in the case of Trump's decision to escalate troop presence in Afghanistan despite his initial desire to withdraw (44m50s).
• Trump's National Security Adviser, Mike Flynn, was ousted after 33 days, and his replacement, H.R. McMaster, did not agree with Trump's foreign policy views, leading to a situation where Trump was presented with options that did not align with his goals (45m13s).
• McMaster was able to guide the inter-agency process and bring recommendations from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Trump, limiting his options and leading to an escalation of troops in Afghanistan (46m8s).
• A similar situation occurred with Obama, who wanted to withdraw from Iraq and focus on Afghanistan, but was presented with options by his advisors that limited his ability to do so, as described in the book "Obama's War" by Bob Woodward (46m24s).
• The book shows how the National Security apparatus was able to narrow Obama's options and present him with a situation where increasing troops in Afghanistan was the most politically feasible choice (46m47s).
• The Deep State can limit a president's options by presenting them with choices that are not in line with their goals, making it politically infeasible to pursue alternative courses of action (47m15s).
• This phenomenon is also seen in Trump's desire to withdraw from Syria, where the Pentagon presents him with options that do not align with his goals, and the actual number of troops in Syria is not publicly disclosed (47m31s).
• The way the military counts troops, excluding those who are present for less than 179 days, can also lead to a misleading picture of the actual number of troops in a given region (47m43s).
• The importance of a president's mission and the impact of their picks for various positions cannot be overstated, as these individuals will be making crucial decisions that may not reach the president's desk but can still shape significant policy (48m1s).
• The voices and judgment of those in the Situation Room and throughout the National Security chain are vital, as they will be making decisions that can have extraordinary blowback, such as the oil embargo on Japan during FDR's presidency, which ultimately led to the attack on Pearl Harbor (48m23s).
• The organizational and bureaucratic model of the White House can provide insight into the potential consequences of such decisions, highlighting the need for individuals with great judgment throughout the National Security chain (48m52s).
• The topic of immigration is also significant, with the current state of affairs being described as "insane," and Donald Trump's approach to the issue being a point of contention (49m5s).

Immigration (49m7s)

• The reason for Trump's win in the presidency was due to the massive change in the immigration status quo, which was second only to inflation as a reason for his victory, as Joe Biden fundamentally changed the immigration status quo in the country (49m19s).
• The Scots Irish people and others were concerned that the government and elitism appeared more concerned about the rights of people coming to the US in a disorderly and illegal process, rather than the native-born population, leading to a huge reason why people turned against mass immigration (49m29s).
• Historically, mass migration to the US caused problems, such as the transition from Scots Irish America to mass European immigration, which led to mass movements like the Know Nothings in the 1860s, who rose up against mass European migration due to concerns about Catholicism and the changing American character (50m7s).
• The Know Nothings were concerned about the changing American character by people who did not have the same traditions, values, and skills as the native-born population, and their understanding of their role in American society was very different from previous generations (50m31s).
• One of the most tumultuous periods in US politics was during the resolution of the immigration question, with massive waves of foreign-born population coming to the US, which was luckily integrated at the time with the Industrial Revolution, providing jobs for them (50m50s).
• Today, the US has one of the highest levels of foreign-born population since the early 1900s, but with attendant problems, and unlike the past, the economy is predominantly service-based, making it harder to integrate new immigrants (51m10s).
• The problems with extremely high levels of foreign-born population, particularly unskilled, include fraudulent asylum claims by economic migrants, which has its roots in the 1965 Immigration and Naturalization Act, which reversed the status quo of immigration from the 1920s to 1960 (51m54s).
• The 1965 Immigration and Naturalization Act changed the status quo of immigration, leading to an increase in foreign-born population, and in opinion, was one of the most important things that ever happened, as it forced integration and redeveloped an American character and understanding that was more homogenous (52m8s).
• The current trend of high foreign-born unskilled population in the US could create a non-citizen population of illegal immigrants who are not skilled and may not be literate in English or Spanish, posing major problems for integration and straining social services (52m36s).
• The US immigration system is based on family-based migration, also known as chain migration, which allows individuals to sponsor their relatives for green cards regardless of their skills or qualifications (53m36s).
• This system is problematic because it prioritizes family relationships over an individual's skills or contributions to the country, and it can lead to an influx of unskilled workers (53m42s).
• A merit-based immigration system, like those used in Australia and Canada, would prioritize individuals with skills and qualifications that would benefit the country (54m17s).
• The US is one of the only Western countries without a merit-based immigration system, and this is partly due to the fact that many people have historically come to the country for non-merit-based reasons (54m24s).
• The Biden administration's changes to the immigration status quo have allowed tens of millions of new entrants to come to the US, which has broken the understanding of many people and contributed to Trump's victory (54m41s).
• Tom Homan, a former Trump administration official, is a strong advocate for enforcing immigration law and believes in the necessity of mass deportation (55m10s).
• However, it's worth noting that Homan's views on mass deportation are not universally accepted, and his authority is limited to what is granted to him by the President of the United States (55m43s).
• The position of National Security Adviser is considered flawed, as it can be capricious and has the power to strip or give the ability to compel, and it's mainly used as an inter-agency convenor to accomplish certain goals (55m59s).
• Steven Miller, the Deputy White House Chief of Staff, has well-founded beliefs, experience in government, and a solid ideology, which could enable him to work with others to achieve goals (56m21s).
• Kirstjen Nielsen, the former Department of Homeland Security Secretary under Donald Trump, had a difficult time handling criticism, despite being a smart woman with long experience in government (57m26s).
• The Department of Homeland Security is one of the largest law enforcement agencies in the world, with extraordinary statutory power to approve investigations, and its secretary will be the public face of mass deportation (56m51s).
• Kirsti Noem, the current governor of South Dakota and potential future Department of Homeland Security Secretary, lacks law enforcement background and experience, which may make it challenging for her to handle the position (57m40s).
• Noem's ability to defend the department's programs on television and her command of facts are questionable, given her past performances in interviews and handling of situations (58m14s).
• There is a rumor about a possible previous relationship between Cory Lewandowski and Kirsti Noem, which might have influenced her potential appointment as Department of Homeland Security Secretary (58m40s).
• The appointment of Noem as Department of Homeland Security Secretary might be due to Trump's desire for a softer and more emotionally capable face for his immigration program (59m11s).
• A potential candidate needs to be able to articulate and justify their policies, particularly those related to mass deportation, and provide a coherent case for their reasoning (59m21s).
• To implement such policies effectively, extraordinary oversight and a great team are necessary, and the media should be handled by throwing questions back at them and focusing on crime and the enforceability of the law (59m57s).
• The goal of immigration policy should be to benefit the grandchildren of current citizens, rather than the grandparents, as stated by Mark Krikorian from the Center for Immigration Studies (1h0m27s).
• The current immigration system is flawed, and even those who have benefited from it, such as the children of immigrants, can recognize the need for change and prioritize the well-being of all American citizens (1h0m44s).
• Open borders policies often fail to consider the consequences of excluding some people from the US and the fact that even within their own framework, it makes no sense to prioritize certain groups over others (1h1m12s).
• The idea that the US has a responsibility to take in people from countries it has allegedly harmed is flawed, as it ignores the fact that other countries, such as Iraq, may have a stronger claim to asylum (1h1m36s).
• The asylum process is also problematic, as it allows people to claim asylum from domestic violence, which is a local law enforcement issue in their home country (1h2m4s).
• Ultimately, it is impossible to solve all problems for everybody, and policymakers must prioritize the well-being of their own citizens (1h2m32s).
• Immigration is a complex and dynamic problem that cannot be solved by simply being sympathetic to those in need, as it requires considering the fundamentals of immigration and its impact on a sovereign nation (1h2m43s).
• The quote on the Statue of Liberty, "Give me your tired, your poor, your hungry," does not provide a limiting principle for immigration, and it is necessary to determine a reasonable level of immigration that comports with the quote (1h3m21s).
• Immigration should be based on the idea that people coming to America are doing so for the benefit of America, not just because of familial connections (1h4m31s).
• The current chain-based, family-based migration system is not rooted in the idea of benefiting America and would be a colossal mistake even if the number of immigrants is reduced (1h4m28s).
• Immigration should be based on merit, and applicants should be able to apply on their own qualifications, regardless of their familial status (1h4m52s).
• The book "Melting Pot or Civil War" by Reihan Salam argues against open borders and suggests that there is an optimal rate of immigration that allows for assimilation (1h4m57s).
• Historically, high levels of immigration have led to the creation of ethnic enclaves, which can be detrimental to assimilation and the host country (1h5m21s).
• The experience of New York City in the early 1900s, where ethnic enclaves were prevalent, suggests that high levels of immigration can lead to social problems and the need for assimilation (1h5m21s).
• Shutting down immigration for an entire generation was necessary in the past to address the problems caused by high levels of immigration and to promote assimilation (1h5m46s).
• Assimilation is a twofold process that requires considering the impact of immigration on the host country and the need for immigrants to adapt to the host culture (1h5m52s).

DOGE (1h21m6s)

• The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is a non-statutory agency with zero funding, established by Donald Trump to advise the Office of Management and Budget, and is led by VI Ramaswami and Elon Musk, with recommendations to be completed by July 2026 (1h21m34s).
• DOGE will likely require private funding to operate, and its recommendations may not be implemented due to the lack of power to compel or force action, relying on convincing Republican legislators to cut spending (1h23m3s).
• The majority of government spending is on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are considered untouchable, and military spending, leaving a small portion for discretionary non-military spending (1h23m34s).
• Within the discretionary non-military spending, about 90% is bipartisan and supported by most, leaving a small slice for potentially controversial programs like welfare and food stamps (1h23m54s).
• To achieve significant spending cuts, such as the proposed $5 trillion, radical changes would be needed, including a overhaul of the Pentagon's procurement process (1h24m21s).
• Historically, the executive office's budget proposals have become less meaningful, with the House Ways and Means Committee and the House of Representatives holding more power over appropriations and spending (1h22m47s).
• The effectiveness of DOGE's recommendations will depend on the willingness of Republican appropriators in the House of Representatives to consider them, which has been a challenge in the past (1h22m35s).
• The majority of the US budget is spent on military spending and entitlements, with Trump having made it clear that entitlements are off the table for cuts, making military spending the realistic target for reduction over a decade-long period (1h24m45s).
• To achieve this, the US would need to change the way it procures military equipment and hands out government contracts, an area where Elon Musk has experience due to his dealings with SpaceX and Boeing (1h25m2s).
• However, there are significant hurdles to overcome in Washington, and it's uncertain whether Elon Musk and others can accomplish this, despite having a megaphone and influence (1h25m21s).
• The influence of a megaphone, as possessed by Elon Musk, can have real power when backed by a populist movement, but this is not a guarantee of success (1h25m54s).
• An example of the limitations of influence is Elon Musk's endorsement of Rick Scott for Senate Majority Leader, which failed to secure the position despite support from other influential figures (1h26m17s).
• The Senate is designed to be independent and immune to public pressure, with a focus on deliberation and cooling down the "mob" of the House of Representatives (1h26m36s).
• Senators are set up to be marginally popular in their home states, allowing them to win primaries and maintain their six-year terms, making them less susceptible to external influence (1h27m8s).
• The Senate's structure and independence make it uncertain whether Elon Musk's influence can lead to significant changes, even if the House of Representatives agrees (1h27m28s).
• The story of Thomas Jefferson and George Washington illustrates the purpose of the Senate, which is to cool down the passions of the House of Representatives and provide a more deliberative body (1h27m41s).
• The most successful thing that can be achieved is redesigning systems, such as procurement, to effectively dispense taxpayer dollars, as the executive has some discretionary authority in this area (1h28m14s).
• The Pentagon's procurement system needs to be overhauled, as it rewards old weapon systems and programs, and can be easily defeated by those studying its vulnerabilities, such as drone warfare in Ukraine and Russia (1h29m0s).
• Nimble procurement and systemic change in executing the mission given by Congress could save a significant amount of money in the long run (1h29m32s).
• However, implementing such changes is challenging due to the need for swing state politicians to deliver for their districts and get reelected, which often involves bringing money to their state rather than cutting it (1h29m55s).
• The system is designed to work this way, and the Senate has historically stood as a bulwark against popular change, making it difficult to implement reforms (1h30m32s).
• The Senate's role in the system has been consistent for two centuries, and it's designed to make sure that popular changes are only implemented when they become inevitable (1h30m43s).
• Historically, the US system has evolved over time, and many aspects of modern democracy were developed after the Civil War, including the direct election of Senators (1h31m1s).
• Studying periods of American history where significant events did not occur or where bad things happened, such as the Great Depression, is important for understanding the country's development and avoiding similar mistakes in the future (1h31m26s).
• Americans often lack knowledge about important periods in history, such as the Great Depression and the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), and could benefit from learning more about these topics (1h31m37s).
• The Age of Acrimony was a time of significant Progressive reform in the US, marked by tension between civil rights, extraordinary wealth, democracy, and the reigning in of big business, laying the foundation for many modern institutions (1h31m50s).
• Voter participation is highest when people are dissatisfied with the system, not when they are happy, as seen in the high voter turnout in the 2020 and potentially 2024 elections (1h32m27s).
• The direct election of senators was a major reform that came about due to public dissatisfaction with the corrupt system, and it is an example of Americans forcing change upon the elite (1h33m2s).
• The election of candidates for a party was also invented during this time, replacing the old system where party bosses chose the candidates (1h33m57s).
• The modern system of politics, where citizens have more input on candidates, is a relatively new development, and it has been shaped by the reforms of the past (1h34m25s).
• In the past, presidential candidates did not directly campaign, comment on the news, or mention their opponents' names, and it was considered unseemly for them to engage in direct politics (1h34m51s).
• The modern style of presidential campaigning, as seen in candidates like Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama, is a product of the new system that emerged after John F. Kennedy (1h35m10s).
• The primary system in the US had its first true big win under John F. Kennedy, and the lesson from that is that there's a collective wisdom to the people, which can work in the system's favor (1h35m23s).
• Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) was a great president and a master of coalitional politics, able to get the support of many and combine his personal popularity with the power of the elites to enforce his policies (1h35m38s).
• FDR's ability to overthrow the support of corrupt and elite Democrats and take control at the convention, then fuse all systems of power, made him a genius in politics (1h35m46s).
• Even in the party boss era, great presidents like Abraham Lincoln emerged, although Lincoln would not have won a party primary in 1860 due to the insane process at the 1860 Republican convention (1h36m11s).
• The system can still produce good results, as seen in the impacts of presidents like Teddy Roosevelt, who made great impacts on history (1h36m39s).
• A radically successful Doge would likely cut a lot of federal agencies and combine others, increasing the efficiency of government and procurement (1h37m13s).
• Many federal agencies use different payroll systems and internal processes, which is antiquated and makes no sense, but changing it is difficult due to party interests (1h37m26s).
• The real problem with government is that it is often hindered by laws and regulations that prevent efficient action, such as the inability of the military to help with law enforcement due to US code statutes (1h38m15s).
• These statutes can prevent the most efficient solutions, such as using Spanish speakers from southcom to help with a crisis at the border, and require legal workarounds (1h38m33s).

MAGA ideology (1h47m46s)

• Trumpism and MAGA can be seen as a coherent ideology that is centered around the rejection of cultural elitism, which encompasses various categories including immigration, foreign policy, and the worship of the post-Civil Rights era bureaucracy (1h47m55s).
• Cultural elitism and liberalism have a fundamental belief that immigration is a natural good at any and all levels, and that there is no difference between immigrants, which is a view that MAGA rejects (1h48m9s).
• In a foreign policy context, cultural elitism divorces American values from American interests and prioritizes human rights and democracy, which is also rejected by MAGA (1h48m25s).
• MAGA is an umbrella that unites individuals who have rejected the cultural elite in their own way, including neocons, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK, despite their differences (1h49m21s).
• Anti-cultural elitism is synonymous with anti-establishment, as elites are the ones who run institutions, but anti-establishment is not the right word to describe MAGA, as it is distinct from left populism (1h49m46s).
• Left populism agrees with basic conceits like racism being a major problem in America, but differs from MAGA in its approach to addressing these issues, with left populism advocating for class-oriented economic programs and reparations (1h50m15s).
• The real distinction between MAGA and left populism lies in their cultural orientation, particularly on issues like immigration, which is a major point of contention (1h50m52s).
• MAGA is fundamentally an umbrella that rejects the status quo and the established cultural elite, but this does not mean that its adherents are not elite or rich in their own right (1h49m31s).

Bernie Sanders (1h50m58s)

• Bernie Sanders initially opposed open borders and mass migration, as seen in his interviews with Lou Dobbs, but later changed his stance due to the cultural left's changing attitudes on immigration (1h50m59s).
• Sanders comes from a European welfare state tradition, which typically involves high taxes, high services, and low rates of immigration, but he has shifted his views over time (1h51m35s).
• Despite being a courageous politician, Sanders has been subsumed by the cultural left and has not endorsed a pro-life candidate since 2017, when he faced backlash for doing so (1h51m54s).
• The left populist agenda has become intertwined with cultural leftism and wokeism, which has united the two wings of the party and led to opposition from the MAGA movement (1h52m14s).
• The cultural left's influence on the Democratic Party can be seen in its shift towards wokeism, which began with the Great Awokening in 2014, a period of significant change in racial attitudes among college-educated whites (1h53m25s).
• The Great Awokening was influenced by events such as the Trayvon Martin case and Ferguson, as well as articles like Ta-Nehisi Coates's "The Case for Reparations" in The Atlantic, which radicalized a generation of white college-educated women to think differently about race (1h53m56s).
• The cultural left's focus on racial attitudes and wokeism has led to a "race first" construct among college-educated elites, which was rejected by voters in 2016 but gained momentum in 2020 (1h54m23s).
• The possibility of Bernie Sanders winning the 2016 election if he had rejected wokeism at the time is an interesting consideration, given that Hillary Clinton shifted to the left during the campaign (1h52m51s).
• The election of Donald Trump led to a ramping up of the narrative that his supporters voted for him due to racism, rather than other reasons, which may have been a factor in Bernie Sanders' potential chances of winning in 2016 (1h54m33s).
• Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump disagreed on immigration, which could have been a major issue for Sanders in the 2016 election, particularly with regards to his proposed healthcare system that would have covered illegal immigrants (1h55m1s).
• If Bernie Sanders had taken a more anti-establishment and populist approach, rather than trying to court the DNC, he may have had a better chance of winning (1h55m29s).
• Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign had a great ad called "America" that was unapologetically patriotic, which is not often seen in left-wing circles (1h55m51s).
• The Bernie movement was crushed by the elite Democratic party, which hated them and attacked them on various occasions, including for having Bernie Sanders on the Joe Rogan show (1h56m10s).
• Bernie Sanders' biggest problem was that he never went "full Trump" and instead kept apologizing for his supporters' behavior, which may have hurt his chances of winning (1h56m52s).
• In 2020, the Democratic base was very different from 2016, with a strong desire to defeat Trump at all costs, which may have affected Bernie Sanders' chances of winning (1h57m32s).
• The Democratic base's desire to defeat Trump gave them a strategic advantage, as they were willing to support any candidate who could beat him (1h57m59s).
• Democrats focus on winning the current base of the party, while Republicans prioritize expressing their identity and values, which has proven to be a powerful political force (1h58m1s).
• The concept of thermostatic public opinion suggests that the country's political leanings shift in response to the party in power, with the country moving right when a left-wing president is in power and left when a right-wing president is in power (1h58m28s).
• This phenomenon is illustrated by the shift in economic attitudes among Republicans after Joe Biden became president, with their perception of the economy changing from positive to negative within two months (1h58m42s).
• Historical examples, such as George W. Bush's win in 2004 and subsequent decline in popularity by 2006, demonstrate that public opinion and political fortunes can change rapidly (1h59m0s).
• These shifts in public opinion and political power can lead to significant changes in the political landscape, as seen in the 2006 midterm elections and the subsequent shift in the Republican Party's prospects (1h59m8s).

Obama vs Trump (1h59m20s)

• The view of history as being shaped by great individuals is considered deluded, and the idea that a politician's success is based on their skills, charisma, and popularity is discussed (1h59m21s).
• It is suggested that if there were no term limits, Obama would have continued to win elections, but it is also argued that Obama would not have been elected if Bill Clinton had been allowed to run for more terms (1h59m38s).
• The examples of Obama and Clinton are given as extremely skilled politicians who can appear like populists, with Clinton being a force in his time, but his legacy being destroyed by his wife Hillary's loss in 2016 (1h59m56s).
• The idea that a president's legacy can be affected by their age and the fact that they live to see themselves become unpopular is discussed, using Clinton and Obama as examples (2h0m16s).
• The Obama era is considered to have officially ended with Donald Trump's reelection in 2024, marking a 20-year period where Obama was one of the most popular central figures in American politics (2h0m50s).
• The topic of term limits for American presidents is discussed, with the argument that the people should be able to reelect their president if they love them, and that FDR was an amazing president who was limited by the term limit change (2h1m0s).
• The term limit change is attributed to Republicans and elite Democrats who wanted to speak against FDR but couldn't, so they waited until he died and then implemented the change (2h1m22s).
• The consequences of the term limit change are discussed, using Clinton as an example, who would have likely won the election against George W. Bush and prevented the Iraq War (2h1m44s).
• The idea that Clinton's popularity would have prevented the Iraq War and possibly the financial crisis is discussed, but it is also acknowledged that Clinton had poor judgment at times (2h2m11s).
• The counterfactual scenario of Obama running in 2016 is discussed, with the argument that Obama would have likely won, but it is also acknowledged that Obama was never challenged in the same way that MAGA was able to challenge the liberal consensus (2h2m24s).
• The 2012 US presidential election led to a GOP autopsy report that suggested the party should be pro-mass immigration, but this approach ultimately failed and led to the party being punished by its base in the 2014 elections (2h3m36s).
• In 2013, the "Gang of Eight" plan, which included Marco Rubio, proposed amnesty for certain immigrants, but it fell apart, and Republicans were punished by their base for supporting it (2h3m52s).
• The 2014 election saw Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, lose his primary campaign to Dave Brat, who ran on an anti-amnesty platform (2h4m4s).
• In 2015, Donald Trump announced his presidential campaign and focused on immigration, which resonated with the GOP base and ultimately led to his victory in the 2016 primary (2h4m20s).
• Trump's "American Carnage" message, which emphasized the decline of the American dream, was a key factor in his success, and his inaugural speech is considered one of the most important in American history (2h5m1s).
• Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist and Trump supporter, had predicted in 2013 that the next successful presidential candidate would need to run on a pessimistic message, rather than an optimistic one (2h3m10s).
• The contrast between Trump's message and that of Barack Obama, who focused on hope and optimism, is notable, and it's interesting to consider how a hypothetical Obama-Trump matchup in 2008 or 2016 might have played out (2h5m54s).
• Obama's decision to implement DACA in 2012, which allowed certain young undocumented immigrants to remain in the US, may have been a vulnerability for him in a potential matchup against Trump in 2016 (2h6m15s).
• The immigration consensus on the Republican side was fundamentally changed when children were brought to the US, which ignited the base and made them realize that the system could be challenged (2h6m32s).
• In the 2012 debate, moderator Candy Crowley fact-checked Mitt Romney, correcting him on behalf of Obama, which was seen as questionable and sparked outrage among the Republican base (2h6m52s).
• Trump would have handled the situation differently, using it as an opportunity to unleash his anger and go off on Crowley, which is what the Republican base wanted to hear (2h7m14s).
• America had strong feelings about the mainstream media that needed to be unleashed, and Trump was the perfect vector to blow up the system (2h7m30s).
• Obama was a talented politician with incredible rhetorical talent, but all the signs were there for a Trump victory and a backlash against Obama's political project (2h7m47s).
• The signs for Trump's victory existed from 2012 to 2015, and in retrospect, it's clear that his election was predictable, but it was crazy in the moment (2h8m16s).
• Trump let Kamala Harris borrow his reputation, which is unfortunate, especially since he had defeated the Clinton machine in 2008 (2h8m28s).
• The 2024 election was a wakeup call for the DNC, which needs new blood and new candidates, similar to Obama, to revitalize the party (2h8m55s).
• The DNC rigged its primary system under Biden, moving away from the Iowa caucuses and rewarding traditional states that vote in line with the Democratic establishment (2h9m8s).
• Barack Obama's story is one of an underdog who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, shocking the world and shifting the perception of his candidacy overnight (2h9m32s).
• Initially, black Democrats did not believe that white people would vote for a black candidate, but Obama's win in Iowa changed that perception (2h9m39s).
• The Democratic Party made changes to the primary system to prevent another Barack Obama-like candidate from emerging, which was seen as a move to protect the party's establishment and prevent challenges to its elite voters (2h10m13s).
• Joe Biden's decision to change the primary system and his initial refusal to debate were seen as arrogant moves that ultimately benefited the country by exposing the flaws in the system (2h10m30s).
• The changes to the primary system were made to prevent a candidate like Obama from winning, and this move was seen as a crime against the American people (2h11m6s).
• Barack Obama is considered one of the most interesting people to analyze the 2020 election and the changes in the United States over the past 20 years (2h11m16s).
• There are different views of history, including the "great man view" and the "psychopath view," which suggests that all great leaders are psychopaths, but there are exceptions like Harry Truman and John Adams (2h11m41s).
• Harry Truman is considered a great leader who was a good person, and his story is told in David McCullough's book, which highlights his love for his wife and family, as well as his small-town judgment and integrity (2h12m5s).
• John Adams is also considered a great leader who was a good person, and his relationship with his wife Abigail is legendary, showing that some presidents can be both effective leaders and good people with strong personal relationships (2h12m33s).
• While there are some great presidents who are good people, the majority of them, especially in the modern era, are willing to sacrifice everything for the presidency, which can extract a high personal cost (2h13m18s).
• It's possible that some people perceived as sociopaths in politics are actually good people, and vice versa, as seen in historical figures like Truman and Adams (2h13m37s).
• Reading multiple biographies can provide a more nuanced understanding of historical figures, such as LBJ, whose flaws may not be immediately apparent (2h13m54s).
• The current anti-establishment sentiment can lead to a self-reinforcing bubble where every politician is perceived as a sociopath (2h14m29s).
• Dramatic change is needed in the political system, but people tend to vote based on personal interests and scrutinize politicians' personal lives (2h14m39s).
• In the pre-modern era, it was more likely to get "good people" in politics because they were not subject to the same level of scrutiny as today (2h14m53s).
• Running for president today is an extremely demanding process that can last for years, making it difficult for good people to participate (2h15m10s).
• The system in Washington can be draining, extracting everything from individuals, and often leading to burnout (2h15m27s).
• Trump is an exception to the typical aging process of presidents, possibly due to his unique mindset, which is described as "pure ID" (2h15m40s).
• In contrast, thinkers like Obama, who are more introspective, often struggle with the pressures of the presidency, which can be a "nightmare" (2h16m4s).
• Obama's experience, including reportedly sleeping only four hours a night, highlights the toll that the presidency can take on individuals (2h16m12s).

Nancy Pelosi (2h16m19s)

• Nancy Pelosi is considered one of the best at attaining and wielding political power in the modern era, with several people in politics sharing this opinion (2h16m19s).
• Pelosi's longevity in controlling the caucus for a long period of time is impressive, as she has been at the top and center of American politics for almost 25 years (2h16m36s).
• She is one of the greatest fundraisers in Democratic party history, consistently cultivating good relationships with Democratic party elites across the country and using that money to fund her caucus (2h16m58s).
• Pelosi is skilled at making sure legislation that comes to the floor has the votes to pass, running a well-ordered process in the House of Representatives that reconciles problems within her office before they become public (2h17m20s).
• She has maintained a remarkable record compared to the Republican side, with multiple speakers resigning or getting fired in a 16-year period (2h17m50s).
• Pelosi has also demonstrated her ability to rule without a title, as she pulled Joe Biden out of the race despite giving up the leader position to Hakeem Jeffries (2h18m11s).
• She played a significant role in the Democratic party's strategy against Trump, helping to force him to back down during the government shutdown over border wall funding (2h18m51s).
• Pelosi and Schumer showed discipline in not wavering during the shutdown, ultimately winning and embarrassing the Trump administration (2h19m11s).

Kamala Harris (2h19m34s)

• The conclusion drawn from KLA's fundraising efforts is that despite raising $1 billion, the money was spent poorly, and it's believed that money doesn't matter as much in winning a campaign, as proven by Donald Trump's underdog victories through earned media (2h19m35s).
• It's questioned how $100,000 can be spent to build a set for one interview, and the dollar per hour cost is compared to running a jet airplane (2h20m11s).
• Dealing with PR and comms people can be frustrating due to micromanagement, fake politeness, and the need for constant decision-making on minor details (2h20m29s).
• The idea of paying celebrities for endorsements is met with cynicism, and it's mentioned that Oprah Winfrey was paid $1 million to endorse K Harr, which seems unnecessary given her billionaire status (2h21m45s).
• It's also mentioned that Alanis Morissette was cut from an event due to lack of funds to pay her, which further highlights the issue of paying celebrities for endorsements (2h22m16s).
• The question is raised as to why people on the left in the political arena are afraid to do anything longer than an hour, with many high-profile individuals only agreeing to 15-20 minute interviews (2h22m33s).
• Conversations with high-profile individuals like Klaus, Joe Biden, or Barack Obama are often limited to 30 minutes, which can be insufficient to showcase their humanity, genius, and nuanced thoughts (2h23m16s).
• The Democrats' decision not to appear on certain shows, such as this one or the Rogan show, may have negatively impacted their narrative in the election, but this is expected to change dramatically in the future (2h23m52s).
• The current system for press access to the president, managed by the White House Correspondents Association, is fundamentally broken, anti-American, and detrimental to democracy (2h24m29s).
• The White House Correspondents Association assigns seats in the briefing room, and the application process can take years, allowing them to slow down the entrance of new media outlets (2h24m54s).
• Not having a seat in the briefing room means journalists have to arrive early, stand in the wings, and raise their hands to ask questions, which is extremely inconvenient (2h25m18s).
• Donald Trump's election was partly due to his appearances on podcasts and new media, highlighting the importance of access to these platforms (2h25m34s).
• The White House Correspondents Association acts as a guild cartel, controlling access to the White House and creating an opaque mechanism for asking the press secretary questions (2h25m45s).
• The rules governing press access are unofficial and based on traditions, allowing the White House to distance itself from the process (2h26m4s).
• The Associated Press has a traditional role in starting and ending briefings, with their correspondent getting the first question and deciding when the briefing is over (2h26m18s).
• The Trump administration did not significantly change the White House press briefing room, despite owing their victory in part to new media, and the room remains designed for traditional media outlets (2h26m46s).
• The first row of the briefing room is reserved for television networks for logistical reasons, allowing them to conduct stand-up reports, and these networks tend to ask similar questions to obtain clips of their correspondents challenging the White House Press Secretary (2h26m52s).
• The traditional media landscape is changing, with election night coverage on cable news down 25% in four years, and new media outlets, such as YouTube shows, are gaining popularity (2h27m43s).
• The 2020 election night coverage on YouTube, including shows like the one hosted by the speaker, had record ratings, with millions of Americans watching (2h27m54s).
• The median age of CNN viewers is 68, indicating that a significant portion of their audience is older, and many Americans under 55 are consuming new media, such as podcasts, instead of watching cable news (2h28m28s).
• Alex Bruce, also known as Alex CU, was a pioneer in using podcasts as a strategy for the Donald J. Trump campaign and deserves recognition for his efforts (2h28m44s).
• There is a need for change in the White House press briefing room, including reducing the number of credentials issued to mainstream media outlets and implementing a new lottery process to allow people with large audiences to participate (2h29m8s).
• It is essential for individuals with large audiences, but limited traditional media experience, to practice journalism and participate in the White House press briefing room to sharpen their skills and provide diverse perspectives (2h29m22s).
• Participating in the White House press briefing room can help individuals improve their news gathering and interviewing skills, making them better journalists in the long run (2h29m41s).
• The current White House Press briefing room setup does not serve America's interest, with 50 seats allocated to press members, many of whom have small audiences, and it would be more beneficial to give precedence to new media journalists with larger followings (2h30m15s).
• Barack Obama set a precedent in 2009 by taking a question from The Huffington Post, a relatively new blog at the time, as a way to reward their support, and this approach could be implemented again (2h30m49s).
• Breaking apart the traditional press briefing cartel could enable greater journalism, allowing for more in-depth discussions and the ability to defend oneself against criticism (2h31m21s).
• A proposed format for a new type of press briefing, called a "streamer briefing," would involve the press secretary sitting in the Roosevelt room, a traditionally used space for press briefings, and committing to a 2-hour Q&A session with new media journalists, streamed live with an expectation of substantive questions (2h31m43s).
• The proposed format would allow for more in-depth discussions, similar to those found in long-form journalism, and would meet the public where they are, as millions of people are willing to sit and listen to lengthy discussions (2h32m52s).
• The incentives for this type of briefing would be different, as journalists would not have to signal to their peers that they are asking tough questions, allowing for more genuine discussions (2h33m33s).
• The importance of asking relevant questions in journalism is highlighted, as many journalists focus on self-reinforcing guilds to impress each other rather than asking interesting questions (2h33m40s).
• A past experience is recalled where the author was criticized for asking if Kim Jong-un was sincere in his willingness to meet with the US, instead of asking about a current political controversy (2h34m0s).
• The historical significance of Donald Trump meeting with Kim Jong-un in Singapore is emphasized, as it broke 50 years of tradition in America's relationship with North Korea (2h34m22s).
• The author's approach to journalism is to take the long view, considering how questions and events will be perceived by future historians, such as Robert Caro (2h34m38s).
• The goal of journalism is seen as leaving a lasting impact, with the ultimate achievement being a quote in a history book 50 years from now (2h34m58s).
• The author aspires to have a quote from a question they asked be included in a book, which would be a measure of success and a lasting legacy (2h35m5s).

2020 Election (2h35m19s)

• American politics has been marked by corruption, divisiveness, and election stealing throughout history, making the current state of politics seem relatively better by comparison (2h35m19s).
• Robert Caro's book "Means of Ascent" details how Lyndon B. Johnson stole the 1948 Senate election, including instances of bags of cash, stuffed ballot boxes, and preventing people from voting (2h35m57s).
• The 1948 Senate election was rigged, with Johnson's allies in power in certain counties in Texas, such as Zapata and Starr County, stuffing ballot boxes and not allowing people to vote (2h36m50s).
• The 1876 presidential election between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel J. Tilden was one of the closest in modern history and involved a corrupt bargain to end Reconstruction and federal occupation of the South (2h37m32s).
• The 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was also marked by allegations of election rigging, particularly in Illinois, where Nixon claimed that Kennedy's father, Joseph P. Kennedy, had rigged the election (2h38m5s).
• Lyndon B. Johnson lost the 1941 Senate primary to W. Lee "Pappy" O'Daniel, who out-stole Johnson by stuffing the ballot box, and despite this, Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized Johnson's talent and supported him (2h38m46s).
• The concept of stolen elections is not new in American history, with instances of high-level chicanery and manipulation occurring in the past, but it's harder to pull off nowadays due to increased transparency and cameras everywhere (2h39m17s).
• The 2020 US presidential election is discussed, and the idea of it being "rigged" is explored, with a distinction made between "low IQ" and "high IQ" versions of the "stop the steal" theory (2h39m52s).
• The "low IQ" version, advocated by Donald Trump, involves claims of Dominion voting machines, bamboo ballots, and foreign interference, which have been largely discredited (2h40m21s).
• The "high IQ" version, on the other hand, focuses on the legitimacy of changes to mail-in balloting laws in swing states like Pennsylvania, which enabled more people to vote and potentially swung the election (2h40m48s).
• This theory is not necessarily illegitimate, but it raises questions about the fairness of changing voting regulations, even if done in response to extraordinary circumstances like the COVID-19 pandemic (2h40m56s).
• The idea of "rigging" is further complicated by the fact that Republican state legislatures and courts were involved in making these changes, making it harder to argue that Democrats alone were responsible (2h41m16s).
• The "Galaxy brain" version of the "stop the steal" theory, exemplified by JD Vance, takes a more nuanced approach, focusing on issues like censorship and the Hunter Biden laptop story, rather than directly addressing the question of whether the election was rigged (2h42m25s).
• The media's censorship of the Hunter Biden laptop story and Big Tech's influence on the 2020 US presidential election are empirically true, and it can be argued that the situation was unfair to Donald Trump, but not necessarily rigged (2h43m3s).
• A 2020 Time magazine article discussed how various institutions, including billionaires, tech companies, and elite institutions, worked against Trump's re-election, which is a legitimate concern (2h43m24s).
• Trump often implies that the 2020 election was stolen from him, but this claim is different from the legitimate concerns about media censorship and institutional influence (2h44m8s).
• Trump rarely acknowledges losing the 2020 election, but when he does, it's often in a joking manner, making it difficult to discern his true intentions (2h44m44s).
• Interviewing Trump can be challenging due to his unique communication style, which often blends humor, sarcasm, and seriousness, making it hard to have a productive conversation within a limited time frame (2h45m1s).
• A suggested approach to interviewing politicians like Trump is to focus on policy discussions, preparing a list of questions in advance, and prioritizing topics to ensure a productive conversation (2h45m16s).
• Having confidence in one's position and being able to compel an interview can be beneficial in situations where time is limited, allowing for more in-depth and meaningful discussions (2h46m16s).
• The ability to compel others to engage in conversation is a unique position, and those who have it, such as Rogan, should stick to their style and not compromise, as it is essential for journalism, conversation, and guests to express themselves freely (2h46m19s).
• The value of in-depth conversations and detailed explanations of one's thought process and backstory is highlighted, as it provides a unique understanding of the person and can be helpful to others (2h46m55s).
• Books have the power to transport people to different worlds and are essential for personal growth, and it is encouraged to make time for reading or listening to audiobooks, regardless of one's busy schedule (2h47m29s).
• The importance of exploring different topics and interests, such as history, is emphasized, and the show is praised for helping to facilitate this exploration (2h47m49s).
• A historian, Jack Weatherford, is mentioned, and his work on Genghis Khan is praised, with a mention of his upcoming appearance on the show (2h48m3s).
• Dan Carlin, a historian and podcaster, is highly praised for his work, particularly his series on the Eastern Front of World War II, which changed the speaker's view of warfare, and his episodes on slavery and Japan (2h48m8s).
• The speaker expresses their admiration for Dan Carlin's work and its impact on their life, and they mention that they have been influenced to read books on topics such as African slavery and the slave trade due to his episodes (2h49m2s).
• The discussion began with a tangent about the 2020 election and Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud, which were not supported by clear evidence (2h49m42s).
• The ease with which Trump's base accepted the idea of a rigged election, despite the lack of evidence, was troubling, and it was noted that people tend to believe compelling stories, even if they are not true (2h50m22s).
• A quote from Roger Ailes, a media genius, was mentioned, stating that people don't want to be informed, they want to feel informed, which is a fundamental media insight (2h50m59s).
• Ailes was credited with changing the world through his work in media, including advising President Reagan and creating memorable debate lines (2h51m20s).
• The book "The Loudest Voice in the Room" by Gabriel Sherman, which is about Ailes, was recommended as an important read for those interested in media (2h51m53s).
• The idea that people want to feel like they possess the truth, rather than actually possessing it, was discussed, and it was noted that this is a problem that affects both liberals and conservatives (2h52m13s).
• It was argued that liberal misinformation can be just as bad as Republican disinformation, and that it often pervades the elite media, citing examples such as Cambridge Analytica and hoaxes promoted by The New York Times (2h52m41s).
• The importance of recognizing that misinformation is an equal opportunity problem that affects people across the political spectrum was emphasized (2h53m6s).

Sam Harris (2h59m8s)

• The individual has a deep respect for Sam Harris and his podcast, "The Making Sense" podcast, which they find thought-provoking and admire for its ability to make them think, with the podcast being part of their regular rotation (2h59m12s).
• Meeting someone you admire, like Sam Harris or Joe, can be a surreal experience, and the individual believes that people can form real connections with those they listen to or admire, even if it's a one-way relationship at first (2h59m46s).
• Sam Harris has been critical of Trump, viewing him as a danger to democracy and the world, and has been consistent in this stance (3h0m30s).
• The individual disagrees with Sam Harris's position on Trump, believing that Harris focuses too much on Trump's personality and has a fundamental misunderstanding of the American presidency and the reasons behind Trump's success (3h0m51s).
• The individual thinks that Harris has become more aligned with elite liberalism since Trump's election, which has led to a denigrating view of Trump voters and a misunderstanding of the presidency (3h1m18s).
• The individual believes that the American system of institutional checks and balances, as well as democracy, can keep Trump in check, citing the 2022 elections as an example where Republicans who were vocal about "stop the steal" lost at the ballot box (3h2m11s).
• The American system of checks and balances, the legal system, and institutions in Washington prevent the country from descending into a "Hitlerian fantasy," making comparisons between Donald Trump and Hitler insulting and inaccurate (3h2m44s).
• The circumstances that led to Hitler's rise to power in Germany are not comparable to the current situation in the United States, and denigrating America by making such comparisons is unwarranted (3h3m29s).
• The "fascist" and "Hitler" arguments against Trump have been made multiple times, including in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but have been rejected by the American people (3h4m8s).
• Despite the character argument against Trump, he has won the presidency twice, and the argument that he is uniquely bad has been rejected by the American people (3h4m23s).
• There is a small probability that Trump or any other politician, including Kamala Harris, could institute extreme policies, but it is essential to focus on the most likely outcomes rather than getting caught up in low-probability scenarios (3h4m47s).
• Trump, like many politicians, wants to hold on to power, but the system of checks and balances and the Constitution prevent him from unilaterally making drastic changes, such as advocating for a third term without the necessary support from the Senate, House, and states (3h5m30s).
• While Trump can be seen as a "Norms Buster," this duality also brings about positive changes, such as his unconventional approach to foreign policy and the economy (3h6m20s).
• The American political system has been significantly impacted by norms being broken, and this is partly attributed to the actions of Donald Trump, who often says things as they are, but sometimes in a ridiculous manner, such as tweeting about Marco Rubio's facelift (3h6m46s).
• The deification of politicians is considered a problem, as it portrays them as Godlike creatures with extraordinary judgment, when in reality, they are just people with human qualities and flaws (3h7m8s).
• Meeting important people, such as billionaires and politicians, can be a rude awakening, as it reveals that they are not as smart or extraordinary as perceived, and some may even get lucky or behave in ridiculous manners (3h7m34s).
• Having personal interactions with politicians, including the Vice President of the United States, can bring one back down to earth and highlight that even those with power are just people (3h8m3s).
• The idea that politicians are unique and have extraordinary qualities is not entirely accurate, as they have the same human qualities as everyone else, and their success can be attributed to various factors, including luck (3h8m33s).
• Donald Trump is considered an extreme version of a candidate, with a wider range of possible trajectories for his administration, making it challenging to predict the outcomes of his policies (3h8m45s).
• A Bayesian theory framework can be useful in understanding the world, as it acknowledges that people are not binary and that there are various possibilities and probabilities for different outcomes, rather than just two extremes (3h8m58s).
• Politicians often describe themselves in false historical ways, using phrases like "making history," which can be misleading, as most historical events are complex and multifaceted (3h9m35s).
• Many historical events that significantly impacted American politics are often overlooked or considered minor, such as the Panama Canal treaty, which was a major point of contention in its time (3h9m56s).
• Historians tend to gloss over these events, viewing them as insignificant or unimportant, but they had a substantial influence on the country's politics (3h9m50s).
• Understanding the significance of these often-overlooked events can provide valuable context and insight into the complexities of American politics (3h10m11s).
• The Panama Canal treaty is an example of an event that, although it may seem minor today, had a profound impact on American politics at the time (3h10m0s).

UFOs (3h10m15s)

• The UFO community is comprised of some of the best people, and their enthusiasm is exciting, with many traveling from around the world to attend hearings (3h10m19s).
• The process of uncovering the truth about UFOs will be a slow burn, similar to how it took a long time to understand the CIA's actions in the 1950s and 60s, which were eventually exposed through the Church Committee in the 1970s (3h10m58s).
• The Church Committee's findings were made possible by individuals who broke into a warehouse, discovered documents, and obtained the names of programs, which were then used to break open the case through FOIA requests (3h11m23s).
• There is a great debt owed to those who have worked to uncover the truth, and it is acknowledged that the statute of limitations has passed for some of these events (3h11m37s).
• There is confidence that a significant amount of information is being hidden from the American people, and official explanations are not trustworthy (3h11m47s).
• Interface with whistleblowers and activists in the UFO community has provided credible information that there is more going on behind the scenes than is being publicly disclosed (3h11m54s).
• The Deep State has made efforts to cover up the topic, and it is essential to keep the faith and continue seeking the truth, even if it takes a long time, as seen in the case of the JFK files (3h12m12s).
• The JFK files are still not fully disclosed, despite everyone involved being dead, and it is hoped that Trump might be able to push for their release, although there is only moderate confidence in this (3h12m54s).
• The president's power to declassify information is not absolute, and there are inter-agency hurdles that can prevent the release of sensitive information (3h13m20s).
• The presidency and government are often at odds with the deep state, which has immense power and has been in place for a long time, with presidents coming and going but the deep state remaining in power (3h14m37s).
• The deep state is not just a group of individuals, but rather an ideology that is self-reinforcing and pernicious, making it difficult to change (3h15m5s).
• This ideology is what drives decision-making in Washington, rather than just money or personal interests, and it is what prevents good journalists and individuals from being elevated to positions of power (3h15m49s).
• The deep state has been able to stonewall even powerful individuals, such as John Podesta, who tried to get information about UFOs while serving as White House Chief of Staff (3h13m58s).
• The power of the deep state is such that even presidents are afraid to confront it, as seen in the examples of LBJ, the Kennedies, Eisenhower, and others who were terrified of J. Edgar Hoover and the Dulles brothers (3h14m21s).
• The deep state is a complex system that is difficult to understand and navigate, and it is what makes it so hard for presidents to effect real change (3h14m42s).
• The idea that taking money out of politics would solve all problems is overly simplistic, as the deep state's ideology is a more fundamental issue (3h15m9s).
• The deep state's power is so great that it can prevent good ideas, such as universal healthcare, from being implemented, even if there is public support for them (3h15m18s).
• The system is designed to prevent good individuals from rising to power, and instead elevates those who share the deep state's ideology (3h15m42s).

Future of the Republican Party (3h16m6s)

• Predicting the future of the Republican party after Trump is challenging, as it is difficult to confidently say what will happen to Trumpism after Trump, similar to how it was hard to predict the rise of Barack Obama after George W. Bush's presidency in 2004 (3h16m6s).
• In 2004, it seemed like the Republican party would continue down the path of Bush and Cheney, but Obama's rise to power changed that, and it is possible that a similar shift could happen again (3h16m15s).
• If Trump's presidency is seen as a net positive, it is possible that JD Vance could be the future of the Republican party, as he shares some of Trump's views on foreign policy and the economy (3h17m32s).
• However, if Trump's presidency is seen as a failure, it could lead to a shift in the Republican party, potentially towards someone like Glenn Youngkin, who is diametrically opposed to Trump's views (3h18m47s).
• The future of the Republican party also depends on the participation of new voters, such as Latinos who voted for Trump for the first time, and whether they will continue to participate in party primaries (3h19m13s).
• The traditional party primary voter is typically a white Boomer, but the rise of Trump has brought in new voters, and it is unclear whether they will continue to participate in the party (3h19m17s).
• The Republican party's future could go in different directions, depending on various factors, including the success or failure of Trump's presidency and the participation of new voters (3h19m7s).
• The type of candidate that could emerge in the Republican party may change, and it's too early to say what will happen, with many possible paths to consider (3h19m30s).
• Donald Trump is a singular figure with a unique vibe, and even if JD Vance runs and wins, it would be on principles and not based on the same vibe as Trump (3h19m42s).
• JD Vance is a very different human being from Trump, showing empathy and being well-spoken, as seen in the VP debate when he responded to Tim Wallace talking about his son (3h20m13s).
• There is a bias towards preferring a president who is well-spoken, empathetic, well-read, and thoughtful, but this is not how many people vote (3h20m39s).
• People are allowed to vote for whoever they want, and it's not up to others to tell them how to vote, but rather to respect their decision (3h21m35s).
• A candidate who combines Trump's popularity with occasional references to history books and a well-read, high-IQ, and thoughtful approach, like JD Vance, would be a better candidate (3h21m40s).
• JD Vance is a well-read, high-IQ individual who has given his life to the political process and is able to articulate his worldview, making him a desirable candidate for some (3h22m14s).
• Being biased towards preferring a president who is well-read and thoughtful is not necessarily a bad thing, as it's a legitimate preference, and many people share this bias (3h22m36s).

Future of the Democratic Party (3h22m43s)

• The future of the Democratic party may involve a new figure emerging, similar to how Barack Obama or Bill Clinton rose to power after a long period of the party being out of power, as someone brand new and untainted by past issues is often needed to convince the base and the country of a new direction (3h22m43s).
• This new figure is unlikely to be an establishment politician of today, but rather someone who can reform themselves or is post-the "great awokening" and the Trump era (3h23m29s).
• A potential dark horse candidate is Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota who showed courage and good judgment by speaking out early on important issues, and may be rewarded by the Democratic base for his willingness to take risks (3h23m38s).
• The ideal candidate would be someone who is not nationally known, has read the tea leaves correctly, and has taken guesses and done things differently than others, with heterodox attitudes, ideas, and behaviors being rewarded after a blowout (3h24m27s).
• A progressive populist figure could potentially emerge, but it would be difficult due to a large portion of the multi-racial working class shifting to the right, although it's possible for people to change their minds and for a credible case to be made by someone with a track record and authentic speech (3h24m32s).
• The left populace should hope that Trump solves the immigration issue, as this would allow them to focus on more favorable issues like the economy, and would resolve an unpopular issue for them (3h25m17s).
• The question of whether the American Empire will collapse one day is raised, but not answered (3h25m59s).
• The reason for the decline of empires is often due to a series of unpopular wars pursued because of the elite's interests, leading to a miscalculation and a catastrophic defeat, which usually occurs gradually, with most people living through the end of an empire being unaware of it (3h26m32s).
• The decline of the British Empire is cited as an example, with its collapse not being immediately apparent, even after World War I, and taking almost 40 years to complete (3h27m15s).
• The end of America's empire is also inevitable, likely due to rising geopolitical competition, being overstretched, elite capture, and a misreading of what made the original society work (3h28m3s).
• The decline of empires often happens slowly and then all at once, making it difficult to predict, but America's unique and dynamic nature gives it fundamental strengths (3h28m30s).
• The public opinion in the United States can shift quickly, and the country is adaptable, which is part of its political discourse (3h28m53s).
• The radical nature of the political discourse is necessary to drive out votes, and Americans have historically shown resilience in the face of adversity, such as during the Civil War and the assassination of President Lincoln (3h29m11s).
• The country's ability to adapt and its fundamental strengths make it unlikely to decline in the near future, despite the inevitability of its eventual decline (3h28m37s).
• The period following the American Civil War was marked by immense internal crises and the challenge of deciding the new order in the South, as well as how to bring the seceded states back into the Union (3h29m41s).
• The task of rebuilding and readjusting was extremely difficult for those who had to return home to find their cities burned to the ground and their entire economy and way of life overthrown in just five years (3h30m6s).
• Despite the immense challenges, the country was eventually able to heal and move forward, with people from the Union and the South shaking hands by the 1890s (3h30m20s).
• A notable example of this healing process is a video of FDR addressing the last Gettysburg veterans at the 75th Anniversary, where old men from both sides can be seen shaking hands across a stone wall (3h30m27s).
• This display of unity and reconciliation gives hope for the possibility of healing and moving forward from even the most divisive conflicts (3h30m40s).

Hope (3h30m41s)

• The source of optimism for the 21st century and beyond lies in the fundamentals of what makes humanity great, which are best expressed in the American character, despite the country's problems (3h30m42s).
• The American ethos, individualism, frontier mindset, and blessings of geography and economy provide the best opportunity for success and accomplishing great things (3h31m14s).
• The country's ability to incorporate different cultures and put them together to achieve great things is a reason for hope (3h31m32s).
• Historical achievements, such as putting a man on the moon, demonstrate the human spirit and provide hope for future accomplishments (3h31m39s).
• The spirit of exploration, as seen in Antarctic expeditions, is a testament to human determination and the desire to push boundaries (3h31m56s).
• Ernest Shackleton's spirit of exploration and perseverance is an inspiration, and his legacy lives on in the United States (3h32m22s).
• America's unique ability to allow people to reset their lives, reinvent themselves, and pursue new opportunities is a reason for hope (3h32m59s).
• The freedom and opportunity to pursue one's goals in the United States are unmatched, making it a special place (3h33m18s).
• The idea that people do things not because they're easy, but because they're hard, is a driving force behind human achievement and a reason for hope (3h33m22s).
• The conversation concludes with an expression of admiration for the interviewer's work and a hope for a future where they can ask questions in the White House (3h33m58s).