Mediterraneo: crocevia di popoli, culture e commerci | Giulio Albano | TEDxBisceglie

The Mediterranean as a Trade Hub

• The Mediterranean Sea is a crucial hub for trade and commerce, with 15% of global maritime traffic and 20% of the economic value of global maritime trade, totaling $800 billion in commercial exchanges in 2022 (1m4s).
• The Mediterranean Sea covers only 1% of the world's water surface but plays a significant role in global trade, with some areas being more intense than others in terms of maritime traffic (58s).
• Marseille, the oldest city in France, founded by the Greeks in 600 BC, is a prime example of a Mediterranean city, with a high percentage of immigrant residents and a strong cultural connection to the Mediterranean (1m29s).
• The story of international trade begins with the Phoenicians, who initiated the diffusion of Mediterranean culture, which can be seen in the spread of olive trees along the Mediterranean coast (2m34s).

Historical Influence of the Roman Empire

• The Roman Empire's complex and well-structured trade network, which spanned the entire Mediterranean coast, was made possible by a single system of laws, an official language for bureaucracy, and the establishment of maritime law (3m34s).
• The concept of a united Mediterranean is not a reality, as it has not existed for over 1,500 years, despite the presence of people from diverse backgrounds coming together to trade and exchange ideas (2m18s).
• The diffusion of Mediterranean culture can be seen in the exchange of goods, ideas, and people, which began with the Phoenicians and continued through the Roman Empire, with the Mediterranean Sea playing a crucial role in shaping the region's history and culture (3m18s).
• The book "Memoria del Mediterraneo" by Fernand Braudel is a recommended read for understanding the history and culture of the Mediterranean region (3m0s).
• The Roman Empire was divided into two parts, with the Western part eventually collapsing, while the Eastern part continued to exist (4m11s).

The Rise of Islam and its Impact

• During this time, the Mediterranean Sea was home to various polytheistic religions, but the rise of monotheistic religions such as Islam led to significant changes (4m22s).
• Islam not only became a major religion but also a political entity, leading to conflicts with other powers, including the Battle of Poitiers and the expansion of the Islamic Empire (4m38s).
• In response to these changes, the Holy Roman Empire was formed, and the Western world was eventually divided into two main Christian denominations: the Catholic Church and the Orthodox Church (4m51s).

The Gravity Model of Trade

• An economist who only considers commerce when discussing trade is making a mistake, as commerce is influenced by various factors, including the size of a nation's economy, distance between nations, and cultural connections (5m12s).
• The gravity equation, also known as the gravity model of trade, is a formula used to calculate the expected trade between two nations, taking into account the GDP of each nation, the distance between them, and a gravity factor (G) that represents the intrinsic value of connections between the two nations (5m23s).
• The gravity factor (G) is influenced by various elements, including commercial agreements, language, cultural similarities, common borders, access to the sea, colonial history, shared history, commercial barriers, political stability, population demographics, and infrastructure costs (6m8s).
• To understand changes in trade between Mediterranean countries, it is essential to consider all these factors (6m51s).

The Divided Mediterranean

• The Mediterranean region has undergone significant changes throughout history, and to imagine what it was like 200 years ago, one can read "The Count of Monte Cristo," a novel set in the Mediterranean (7m9s).
• Today, the Mediterranean is a divided region, with three main religious blocks: Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and Muslims, as well as smaller populations of Jews and Anglicans (7m21s).
• The Mediterranean region has three critical points: the Suez Canal in Egypt, the Bosphorus Strait, and the Strait of Gibraltar, which is a British protectorate (7m44s).
• The Mediterranean region is often divided by a clear religious distinction, with religion having been a crucial point of identification for people throughout history, as seen in the example of Ukraine where people would identify as Orthodox rather than by nationality (8m13s).

Economic Disparities and Trade Patterns

• The Mediterranean region's wealthiest nations are primarily located in the northwestern part, including Spain, France, Italy, and Israel, which are considered outliers (8m56s).
• Economic exchanges between nations are more likely to occur when the nations have similar economic levels, as explained by Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, which is why Italy's industrial production can satisfy French demand more effectively than Turkey's (9m20s).
• Prior to Krugman's theory, it was believed that economic exchanges were more closely tied to the cost matrix, which suggests that nations would trade with countries where production costs are lower; however, this is not always the case, as seen in the example of Tunisia's production not meeting the expectations of Italian, French, and Spanish consumers (9m50s).

Istanbul's Importance and Political Landscapes

• Istanbul is considered the largest and most important city in the Mediterranean, with a population of 13 million, and could be considered the capital of the region if one were to be designated (10m20s).
• The Economist's 2022 Democracy Index shows that European nations tend to be more democratic, while many nations in the surrounding region are not democratic, instead being hybrid or authoritarian regimes (10m38s).
• The lack of democracy in these nations is unfortunate, as it would be beneficial for them to be more democratic, especially considering the Arab Spring in North Africa, which had the potential to reverse this trend (10m59s).
• Similarity in political systems, as well as economic levels, can facilitate dialogue and trade between nations, as seen in the example of European nations, and it is hoped that this will be the case in the future for North Africa as well (11m28s).
• The need to trade with authoritarian regimes due to their possession of natural resources is a challenge, as noted by Mario Draghi, who stated that European nations are forced to deal with dictators and autocrats because they have resources that are essential to Europe (11m32s).
• Many economists study the high correlation between levels of democracy and levels of natural resources, but this topic is not the focus of the current discussion (11m46s).

Demographic Trends and Future Projections

• The future of the Mediterranean is mainly in the southeast, as shown in a graph illustrating the population pyramid, with a high number of children and a low number of elderly people, indicating a healthy demographic structure (12m5s).
• In contrast, Northern Europe has a nearly inverted population pyramid, with a low number of children and a high number of elderly people, indicating an unhealthy demographic structure (12m17s).
• The Mediterranean region is expected to become less European and more South-oriented in the future (12m35s).

Shifting Cultural and Economic Integrations

• The Roman Empire, with its unified bureaucratic system, official language, and Mediterranean culture, played a significant role in shaping the region's history, but this Mediterranean culture no longer exists as it once did (12m59s).
• Today, European countries are more integrated into a European culture than a Mediterranean one (13m7s).
• The total value of exports between European countries is around 5 trillion, while the total value of exports between Mediterranean countries is around 800 billion (13m26s).
• Although European countries are richer than Mediterranean countries, the percentage of exports within the same geographic area is higher for European countries, with a minimum of 50% in 2013, and a peak of 56% (14m24s).
• In contrast, the percentage of exports within the Mediterranean region is lower, with a peak of 34% and a current value of 29% (14m39s).

The Mediterranean as a Suboptimal Economic Area

• The Mediterranean region is considered an economically suboptimal area because it could achieve more through increased trade and economic cooperation (14m51s).
• The facilitation of trade between countries is often achieved through commercial agreements, which are simpler to establish when political and demographic factors are similar (15m5s).
• The Schengen Agreement, signed in 1985, is an example of a commercial agreement that has facilitated the free movement of goods, people, and capital within the European Union, contributing to the region's economic stability and social stability (15m27s).
• The Arab Free Trade Area was established in 2004, followed by the Agadir Agreement in 2008 and the Union for the Mediterranean in 2008, but these commercial agreements did not find fertile ground (15m49s).

Economic Growth, Crises, and Conflicts

• The Mediterranean region experienced growth from 2005 to 2008, driven by globalization and the removal of commercial barriers, including the Barcelona Treaty (16m9s).
• However, the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, which particularly affected Greece, had a significant impact on the region (16m45s).
• The Arab Spring in 2010 and the subsequent crises led to a sharp decline in trade between Mediterranean countries, with a partial recovery in recent years (17m15s).
• The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine further affected the region, with the latest available data showing a decline in trade up to 2020 (17m35s).

Impact of the War in Ukraine

• The countries most interested in the Mediterranean region are those in North Africa, with the exception of Albania, which has 65% of its exports going to other Mediterranean countries (18m12s).
• Ukraine is also considered a Mediterranean country, as it borders the Black Sea, and its economy is closely tied to the region (18m22s).
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significant consequences for the Mediterranean economy, particularly in terms of trade in grain, chemicals, palladium, nickel, and fertilizers (19m5s).
• Ukraine's main export markets were countries in North Africa, while Russia's exports went to various countries in the region (19m25s).
• Italy has never had a significant dependence on Ukrainian wheat, with only about 7% of its wheat coming from Ukraine, and instead relies on internal production and imports from countries such as Canada, Australia, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt (19m34s).
• The war in Ukraine has led to a surge in prices, resulting in inflation in Italy, but for North Africa, it has meant scarcity and difficulty in obtaining products (19m50s).
• One of the main points of the war in Ukraine is the Crimea, located in front of the port of Odessa, and the cost of transportation by ship has increased significantly due to the war (20m12s).
• The Mediterranean is currently experiencing a new recession due to these reasons, and the situation is further exacerbated by the war in the Middle East and the genocide of the Palestinian population (20m37s).

Conclusion: The Dream of a United Mediterranean

• The idea of a united Mediterranean, as it was during the Roman Empire, is not a reality today, and it can only be dreamed of, with the hope that it may become a reality someday (20m55s).