US space innovation, defense tech challenges, and more with True Anomaly’s Even Rogers | E1982
21 Jul 2024 (2 months ago)
True Anomaly’s Even Rogers joins Jason
- The relationship between private capital and government buyers is a key driver of US competitiveness, particularly in the defense and space sectors. This dynamic, fueled by companies like Palantir and Anduril, has attracted significant venture capital investment.
- Evan Rogers, CEO and co-founder of True Anomaly, a defense tech company, discusses the growing importance of space domain awareness. He highlights the increasing number of assets in orbit and the aggressive actions of Russia and China in weaponizing space.
- True Anomaly focuses on closing the knowledge gap in space domain awareness, understanding the capabilities and intentions of adversaries like Russia and China. This is a crucial first step before developing active defense systems. Rogers emphasizes the need for training operators to understand the complexities of space conflict and defense, and to develop effective countermeasures.
Space innovations and True Anomaly's tech
- True Anomaly is a startup company focused on developing space technology for defense purposes. They have raised over $150 million in funding and have a team of over 120 people. The company is only two years old and is rapidly growing.
- True Anomaly has launched its first two "Jackal" spacecraft in March. These spacecraft are part of an iterative flight test campaign, where the company is constantly learning and improving the design based on the data collected. The Jackal spacecraft are designed to monitor and understand what is happening in space.
- The US Space Force is a critical component of the defense strategy for space. It was initiated during the Obama Administration and was officially established under the Trump Administration. The Space Force is responsible for training and equipping military personnel to protect the space domain and defend against threats from other countries. The Space Force is essential for ensuring that the US military can operate effectively in space and protect its assets from attack.
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Space defense, treaties, and infrastructure resilience
- Space Weaponization: China and Russia have been actively weaponizing space, developing capabilities to target terrestrial forces with missiles and electronic warfare systems. This includes the development of ASAT (Anti-Satellite) weapons, both kinetic and electronic warfare systems. Russia has also reportedly developed a nuclear anti-satellite weapon that could detonate in orbit and disrupt low Earth orbit satellites.
- Space Weapon Classifications: Space weapons can be categorized as space-to-ground, ground-to-space, and space-to-space, similar to air-to-ground, air-to-air, and surface-to-air weapons. They can also be classified as destructive or non-destructive, with examples including missiles launched from Earth, ground-based jammers, and directed energy systems.
- Outer Space Treaty and its Limitations: The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons in space, but it does not prevent the deployment of conventional weapons, missiles, electronic warfare systems, and directed energy systems. This means that the deployment of such weapons in space is likely already occurring by various countries, including the US, Russia, and China.
Space warfare challenges and scenarios
- Space warfare is a relatively new concept, with the US only recently designating space as a war-fighting domain. Prior to this, the infrastructure in space was designed without considering potential threats, leaving it vulnerable.
- The most common method of attacking satellites is a "hit-to-kill" approach, where a projectile is launched to collide with the target. This method is technically feasible, but it requires a significant number of projectiles and a large amount of energy to reach the target.
- Electronic warfare is considered a more likely initial threat than kinetic attacks. This is because it can be used to disrupt communications and navigation systems without causing physical damage. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict demonstrated the potential for widespread disruption through cyberattacks, highlighting the difficulty of localizing effects in space warfare.
- A worst-case scenario involves a large-scale attack on space infrastructure using kinetic weapons or nuclear weapons. This could result in the loss of GPS and communication systems, leading to widespread disruption of navigation, banking, internet traffic, and other critical services.
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Securing government contracts for space and defense startups
- The United States has a unique advantage in space innovation due to its infrastructure and capitalistic system. This has led to a surge in space startups, particularly in the defense sector, despite some reluctance from Silicon Valley investors.
- The relationship between private capital and government contracts is crucial for the success of space startups. Companies like Palantir and Anduril have demonstrated the viability of this model, attracting venture capital and crossover investors.
- The recent influx of capital from growth stage and crossover investors has significantly boosted the defense space sector. This has created a competitive landscape where only a few venture teams have a strong understanding of the market, while others are trying to catch up.
True Anomaly’s Jackal deployment
- True Anomaly's Jackal is a low-cost, highly maneuverable spacecraft designed for rendezvous and proximity operations, particularly against agile targets. It is not intended for offensive or defensive purposes, but rather for reconnaissance and gathering information in space.
- The Jackal is designed to be expendable, with a cost of less than $5 million per unit. This allows for the deployment of large numbers of Jackals, making it difficult for adversaries to neutralize them all. The company aims to reduce the cost further to between $1 and $2 million per unit.
- The Jackal's primary function is to gather intelligence in space, acting as "eyes in the sky" for military operations. It can quickly reach a location, take pictures, and provide valuable information to ground forces. The low cost allows for the deployment of numerous Jackals, providing a significant advantage in terms of situational awareness.
Defense contracting: cost-plus vs. fixed price models
- Cost-plus contracts, where the government pays for all expenses plus a percentage markup, are common in defense contracting but are seen as inefficient by many in the private sector. This is because cost-plus contracts incentivize companies to increase costs rather than drive them down, which is the norm in a capitalist market.
- The use of cost-plus contracts is particularly problematic when developing new technologies or systems with high uncertainty. In these cases, a cost-plus contract can be useful to mitigate risk for the contractor. However, for more mature technologies and systems, fixed-price contracts are more efficient.
- The Department of Defense (DoD) is increasingly recognizing the importance of fixed-price contracts in driving innovation and efficiency. By using fixed-price contracts, the DoD can encourage competition among companies and ultimately get more value for its money. This allows the DoD to purchase more systems and technologies, ultimately leading to greater capability.
International sales of defense technology and regulations on defense tech exports
- True Anomaly, the company discussed, designs and builds space technology, including the Jackal platform and Mosaic operating system, with a focus on addressing the needs of the US Space Force and intelligence community for space superiority and domain awareness.
- The company takes a proactive approach by engaging with program offices and the operational community early in the design process, gathering feedback and prioritizing features to ensure their products are well-suited for future government requests for proposals (RFPs).
- While True Anomaly strives to anticipate government needs, they also adapt their existing designs to meet emerging requirements that may not have been known to the industry until an RFP is released.
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Defense industry's role in capitalism and global politics
- The defense industry plays a crucial role in global politics and power projection. The US, through its allies, sells advanced weapons systems internationally to ensure interoperability and efficient power projection. This is evident in NATO, where standardized equipment allows for seamless collaboration between member nations.
- The military-industrial complex is a complex issue with valid concerns. While some argue that the US might be driven by profit to engage in conflict, the speaker emphasizes the importance of a robust defense industry for national security. He argues that the US must maintain a strong military capability to deter adversaries and protect its interests on the global stage.
- The speaker's experience in the Air Force and his current role in the defense industry highlight the need for innovation and competitiveness. He believes that the US must invest in developing advanced technologies to counter the growing military capabilities of adversaries like Russia and China. He emphasizes that the US must be prepared to defend its interests in space, a domain that is becoming increasingly contested.
Taiwan-China conflict and its global impact
- The Taiwan-China conflict is a major concern for the global defense industry, with many companies focusing on developing technologies to deter or respond to a potential invasion. The conflict is seen as a potential "generation-defining" event, and the buildup of Chinese military capabilities, including small ships, drones, and hypersonic weapons, is a cause for concern.
- While the goal is to avoid conflict, the United States and its allies are actively demonstrating their military strength through freedom of navigation operations and other exercises in the region. This is seen as a necessary deterrent to prevent China from taking aggressive action.
- China's development of advanced conventional weapons, including long-range missiles, poses a significant threat to US and allied capabilities. This has been exacerbated by a shift in focus towards counter-insurgency operations in recent years, which has led to a decline in investment in traditional defense technologies. The text emphasizes that China is not a benign actor and possesses a vast array of resources and active research and development programs that are producing dangerous weapons.
The major concern with new weapons technology
- Hypersonic weapons are a major concern due to their speed and maneuverability. They travel at speeds exceeding Mach 6, making them difficult to track and intercept. Their high kinetic energy means they can inflict significant damage even without a warhead.
- China's development of hypersonic weapons, including a fractional orbital bombardment system, is a cause for concern. This system involves launching a vehicle into space, orbiting the Earth, and then striking targets on the ground. This technology raises concerns about the potential for space-based weapons and the need for space control capabilities.
- The potential for hypersonic weapons to be used against critical infrastructure, such as aircraft carriers, is a significant threat. Their speed and maneuverability make them difficult to defend against, and their impact could be devastating.
Jam With JCal contest winner Ana Malhotra from Rome joins Jason
- Anna Malhotra, the founder and CEO of Rome, a dog yard-sharing platform, presented her startup to JCal, an investor in Silicon Valley. She explained that Rome was inspired by her own husky, who couldn't go to public dog parks due to his aggression towards other dogs. Rome aims to connect dog owners with nearby yards for their pets to play safely.
- The main challenge for Rome is acquiring enough supply (yards) to meet the growing demand from dog owners. Anna highlighted that the platform needs to offer a variety of yards that are safe, close by, and spacious enough for dogs to run around.
- Rome has been focusing on building supply through various strategies, including reaching out to personal networks, posting on Craigslist and Nextdoor, and even direct mail. While some strategies have been successful, others, like reaching out to Rover sitters, have not yielded significant results. Anna believes that to achieve true liquidity and meet the increasing demand, Rome needs to scale its supply by onboarding more individual homeowners, not just businesses.
Jason’s feedback for Rome
- Jason provides feedback on Rome's dog run business idea. He suggests leveraging existing marketplaces like Airbnb and Rover to reach potential customers. He also recommends cold-calling dog walkers and Airbnb hosts, as well as utilizing online forums like Reddit and Nextdoor to generate interest.
- Jason emphasizes the importance of finding a central location for the dog run. He suggests renting a property in a desirable neighborhood, even if it's in need of repair, and setting up multiple dog pens in the backyard. He also encourages Rome to consider offering additional services like grooming and dog training to increase revenue.
- Jason highlights the concept of a "third space" and how Rome's dog run could fill that need. He explains that people often seek out spaces outside of their homes and workplaces for relaxation and social interaction. He believes that Rome's dog run could become a popular destination for dog owners and their pets, offering a unique combination of dog park, coffee shop, and social gathering space.