“Democratic Backsliding in the U.S. and Abroad,” Katherine Casey, Anat Admati, and Saumitra Jha

Introduction and Global Perspectives on Democratic Backsliding

• Katherine Casey, along with colleagues Saumitra Jha and Anat Admati, discusses the topic of democratic backsliding, providing both historical and global perspectives. (19s)
• Freedom House, an organization that champions democracy, has been collecting data on the strength of democracy worldwide for about 50 years. Their data includes scores on how free 195 countries and 15 territories are, using a scale where 1 is the most free and 7 is not free. (42s)
• The data shows a trend of increasing freedom and democracy until around 2009-2010, after which there has been a decline, indicating a shift towards more authoritarian regimes. (2m2s)
• The concept of democratic waves is introduced, with the current period being referred to as the "third wave" of democratization, a term coined by Samuel Huntington in his 1991 book "Democracy's Third Wave." This wave saw more than 30 countries transition to democracy, more than doubling the number of democracies worldwide. (2m20s)

Historical Waves of Democratization and Reversals

• Historically, each wave of democratization has been followed by a reversal. The first wave began in the 1820s, extending the franchise to some men in wealthy countries, and ended around 1922 with a reversal. The second wave occurred after World War II, reaching 36 democracies before a smaller reversal in the 1960s. (3m27s)
• The third wave, from 1974 to 1990, added another 30 democracies. The discussion highlights the cyclical nature of democratization and authoritarianism, suggesting that the current trend of democratic backsliding is not unprecedented. (3m57s)

Democracy's Third Wave and Current Backsliding

• The book "Democracy's Third Wave" by Samuel Huntington is not a celebration of global democratization but rather a speculation on future trends in democracy and authoritarianism. (4m23s)
• The discussion addresses factors that influence democracy globally, highlighting a period of democratic backsliding characterized by decreasing freedom and increasing instability. (4m38s)
• Freedom House reports indicate a rise in political instability discussions over the past 20 years, contributing to anxiety and uncertainty about the future of democracy. (5m4s)

Measuring and Analyzing Democracy

• Criticisms of Freedom House and similar organizations suggest that their measures of democracy may be subjective and potentially biased. (5m50s)
• Two political scientists propose focusing on objective measures of democracy, such as whether an incumbent leaves office after losing an election, as opposed to subjective assessments like the fairness of elections. (6m27s)
• An economist's data-driven approach uses factor analysis to reduce 300 indicators to two indices: state capacity and political liberalism. State capacity is linked to GDP per capita, while political liberalism includes subjective indicators like press freedom and civil liberties. (6m52s)
• State capacity has remained stable, but political liberalism has declined, with countries like Norway, New Zealand, Germany, and Costa Rica performing well in terms of liberalism. (7m51s)
• The discussion examines the ability of states to provide basic public goods and manage the economy effectively, highlighting that some wealthy countries like Denmark and Switzerland are democratic, while others like Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are strong states with limited civil liberties. (8m33s)
• An analysis of global trends from 2008 to 2022 shows that a few countries are improving in both state capacity and political liberalism, such as Malaysia, which experienced a political shift in 2018 following a corruption scandal. (9m7s)
• Many countries, including Venezuela and the United States, are experiencing declines in both state capacity and political liberalism, with Venezuela facing severe institutional and economic challenges. (9m42s)
• The most common trend over the past 14 years is countries maintaining or strengthening state capacity while becoming less liberal, which frames the broader discussion on democratic backsliding. (9m59s)

Mechanisms and Reasons Behind Democratic Backsliding

• Anat Admati, a finance and economics professor, discusses the mechanisms and reasons behind democratic backsliding, drawing from her experience and research, including insights from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. (10m47s)
• Admati emphasizes the importance of education for democracy, referencing a quote from Thomas Jefferson, and notes that her work extends beyond academia to broader educational efforts. (12m13s)
• The book "Amusing Ourselves to Death," written in 1985, critiques the impact of media on public discourse, highlighting concerns about the shift towards entertainment and sound bites over serious discussions. The author was worried about voluntary confusion rather than authoritarian control, a concern that remains relevant today. (12m34s)
• The essay written in 2020 discusses how democracy and prosperity require uncorrupted governments, and it argues that the forces of capitalism have weakened democracies due to the significant influence of private power. This has led to governments being overwhelmed by their interactions with the private sector. (14m10s)
• Deception and manipulation of beliefs are identified as tools of power in both markets and politics, with lobbying and marketing playing roles in convincing people to accept certain ideas. (14m45s)
• A recent piece emphasizes that accountability is key to restoring trust in capitalism, especially in a world where facts are often questioned. Educating people may help reduce confusion and anger, which can be exploited through grievance strategies. (15m4s)
• Free speech and democratic institutions do not guarantee good policy if people are confused or blind to the truth. This can lead to a democracy where people are angry and unhappy, and where policies may be poor, justifying discontent. (15m51s)

Discontent and Negative Outcomes in Democracy

• An observation is made that discontent can lead to negative outcomes, based on experiences in banking and other areas. Additionally, there is a mention of a new MBA course and an upcoming event with Bill Browder. (16m19s)
• A program called "Capitalism and Democracy" is a collaboration between the business school and the center across the street of democracy development and the rule of law, focusing on issues related to state capacity and political liberalism in four countries over history (16m52s).
• The four countries studied are Germany, Italy, Hungary, and the United States, which have experienced declines in democracy, with Germany's decline prior to World War II under Hitler, Italy's decline under Mussolini, Hungary's decline after becoming democratic, and the United States' decline (17m13s).

Case Studies in Democratic Decline

• Venezuela is also mentioned as a country with significant ups and downs in its democratic history (17m49s).
• The Carnegie Foundation has defined democratic backsliding as a country going from two good measurements to two significantly worse measurements after 2005, without improvement, and has identified 27 countries that fit this definition, with the United States being the only exception from the third wave of democratization (18m3s).
• The United States is a focus of study, with its democracy measured by institutions, government, and the rule of law, rather than aggregate measures (18m41s).

Defining and Understanding Democracy

• Democracy is defined as a governing system based on the will and consent of the governed, with institutions accountable to all citizens, adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights, and a network of mutually reinforcing structures (19m40s).
• A healthy democracy requires committed citizens who believe in the enterprise of democracy, distributed power, informed debate, and compromise, as well as a set of institutions and rules that include gatekeepers and checks and balances to guard against the accumulation of power (20m13s).
• Democratic backsliding can occur when powerful individuals or groups are not committed to democratic principles, leading to changes in rules and institutions that result in a loss of accountability and an increase in autocracy and corruption. (20m56s)

Theories and Causes of Democratic Backsliding

• The Carnegie Foundation study explores theories on the causes of democratic backsliding, including the influence of autocracies like Russia and China, which may exacerbate polarization and spread misinformation through social media. (21m51s)
• There is mixed evidence regarding the impact of social media and populism on democratic backsliding, with some countries experiencing declines or increases in democracy regardless of social media presence or populist movements. (23m1s)
• Economic inequality and the failure of democracy to address grievances can contribute to democratic backsliding, as seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which created grievances that fueled further backsliding. (23m38s)
• The primary drivers of democratic backsliding are domestic political actors who mobilize grievances to justify dismantling democratic institutions, claiming these institutions are responsible for societal problems. (24m10s)
• Corruption, inequality, financial crisis, and government mismanagement can contribute to democratic backsliding, as seen in various cases around the world, including India, the US, and the Philippines, often tapping into underlying forces like anti-immigrant feelings or scapegoating certain groups (25m10s).
• Leaders may seek power through legitimate means but then use corrupt networks to maintain it, exemplifying illiberalism without a cause, which is a naked power grab (25m40s).
• Some countries have experienced military takeovers, marking another path to democratic backsliding (26m21s).

The Breakdown of Democratic Norms

• A 2018 book by two Harvard political scientists highlights the breakdown of informal rules and democratic norms, specifically mutual toleration and forbearance, which are essential for a functioning democracy (26m41s).
• The book identifies four indicators of democratic regression: rejecting election outcomes, denying the legitimacy of the opposing party, tolerating violence, and curtailing media freedom, all of which were observed in the US for the first time in 2016 (27m14s).
• The US has a complex history with democracy, with the Civil War and the subsequent achievement of democratic norms at the cost of putting aside issues of racial equality, and the backsliding of these norms began in the 1980s (28m0s).
• The gradual erosion of democratic norms can be imperceptible, much like the boiling frog metaphor, where small changes add up over time, ultimately leading to significant consequences (29m0s).

Recommended Books and the Rise of Modern Authoritarianism

• Recommended books on the topic include "Spin Dictators," which explores the use of spin and propaganda by authoritarian leaders (29m39s).
• Modern authoritarian regimes, such as those led by Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Viktor Orbán, employ propaganda to convince people that they are democratic and the best leaders, rather than using overt violence. (29m44s)
• Anne Applebaum's recent book discusses the connection between autocracy and capitalism, highlighting issues like money laundering and oligarchs. It suggests that democracies need to change rules regarding anonymous corporations to effectively combat these corrupt networks. (30m14s)
• There is a growing concern about the effectiveness of sanctions and other measures against autocratic regimes, as democracies have allowed certain practices to persist, undermining their efforts. (31m2s)

Key Issues in Democratic Backsliding: Social Media, Apex Corruption, and Polarization

• Three important issues related to democratic backsliding include the role of social media, apex corruption, and their combined effect on undermining democratic values. (31m45s)
• Political polarization is increasing, with surveys showing extreme levels of dislike between Democrats and Republicans. This polarization may lead people to question the effectiveness of democratic systems and checks and balances. (32m0s)
• There is a global decline in liberal democracy, not limited to the United States or India, with both right-wing and left-wing populists gaining ground. This trend raises concerns about the peaceful transfer of power during elections. (32m47s)
• There is a growing concern about the role of corruption globally, with increased media exposure and frequent scandals involving top government officials. Mentions of corruption in media have significantly increased, with four times as many mentions in Spanish and twice as many in English in recent years. (33m49s)
• Satisfaction with democracy has declined in various regions, including the United States, where less than 60% of people are satisfied with democracy. At the same time, perceptions of widespread government corruption have increased, with over 70% of Americans believing there is significant government corruption, similar to levels in Latin America and Mexico. (34m30s)

The Impact of Technology and Media on Democracy

• The discussion highlights the role of media, mobile internet, and social media, particularly in contributing to polarization through echo chambers. The impact of technology, such as smartphones and 3G, is linked to declining faith in government and the rise of populism. (35m32s)
• Research on "Apex corruption," or corruption at the highest levels, is discussed, emphasizing its detrimental effects on democracy. The concept of "strategic complementarities" is introduced, where individuals are more likely to act corruptly if they believe others are doing the same, creating a coordination game. (36m0s)
• Despite the negative impact of corruption at the top, there is hope that new, honest leaders could change perceptions and reduce corruption. The presence of honest leaders could alter people's beliefs about corruption and influence how corruption is coordinated. (36m45s)

The Role of Honest Leaders and the Dangers of Centralized Power

• There are two dark sides to the idea of honest leaders: one is that people perceived as honest might not be, which can crush perceptions, and the other is that honest leaders might centralize power to combat corruption, which can be detrimental to democratic institutions (37m15s).
• Honest leaders can ironically be very delirious for democratic institutions, as they might centralize power to rescue the country from corruption (37m58s).
• Research has used methods such as randomized control trials and event study evidence to show that the relationships between apex corruption and the undermining of democratic values are causally related (38m15s).

Media Bias and the Amplification of Extreme Views

• A study by Bageri and co-authors analyzed the universe of top 100 US media outlets and found that while they have a political slant, hard news articles tend to be centrist with little slant (38m48s).
• The study found that most of the variance in slant occurs within outlets, with different authors having different perspectives, and that 65% of the variation in slant is not between outlets but within them (39m49s).
• The study also found that extreme articles are more likely to be propagated on social media, and that it's not the centrist news that gets shared, but rather the more extreme stuff (40m32s).
• The researchers used Facebook data to analyze what was being shared on the platform and found that it's not the centrist news that gets shared, but rather the more extreme articles (40m46s).
• The study's findings suggest that social media platforms tend to amplify extreme views, rather than centrist ones (40m54s).
• Social media is contributing to the formation of media echo chambers, where liberals are exposed to more extreme liberal news and conservatives are exposed to more conservative news, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom in the profession that had previously stated this wasn't the case when looking at the outlet level, but a different picture emerges when looking at the article level (41m3s).

The Impact of Technology on Government Satisfaction and Populism

• Research by Serge GV and Nikita K found that as technology expands and access to mobile internet increases, people become more dissatisfied with their governments, leading to a decline in the incumbent vote share, and benefiting right-wing and left-wing populists, while non-populist parties do not benefit from this trend (41m40s).
• The expansion of 3G coverage, which allowed for mobile internet, led to an increase in dissatisfaction with governments, but this effect is mitigated in countries that censor the internet, and in countries with very clean governments, such as Switzerland and Denmark, the expansion of 3G coverage actually led to increased support for the government (42m3s).
• The propagation of information about corruption through technology can have negative effects on democracy, as it can undermine support for traditional governments, even in countries with relatively clean governments, such as the US (43m6s).

The Influence of Top Leaders on Perceptions of Corruption

• Leaders at the top of the pyramid are more focal and their actions have a greater impact on the perception of corruption in society, as they are more visible and their actions send a signal to others, which can increase the level of corruption in society due to strategic complementarities (44m9s).
• The visibility of corruption at the top level can lead to a greater perception of corruption in society, as people are more likely to believe that others are also corrupt, which can increase the level of corruption in society (44m33s).
• The example of Lula, the president of Brazil, being implicated in corruption, is used to illustrate how the actions of top leaders can have a greater impact on the perception of corruption in society (44m22s).
• The presence of respected leaders who engage in corrupt activities can alter public perceptions of acceptable behavior and undermine trust in governmental institutions. This can lead to a belief that corruption at the top levels of government is pervasive and unavoidable. (44m54s)

The Impact of Honest Leadership and Anti-Corruption Platforms

• Honest leadership at the highest levels can potentially lead to societal change by signaling integrity in costly ways. A randomized control trial and cross-country evidence demonstrate that apex corruption impacts liberal democracy by affecting beliefs, norms, and pro-democratic behaviors, such as volunteering and voting. (45m46s)
• In environments where corruption is perceived as widespread, platforms promising to "drain the swamp" become attractive. This phenomenon is not limited to the U.S. but is also seen in other countries, such as Mexico, where former President Enrique Peña Nieto was viewed as complicit in corruption, leading his successor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to campaign as an anti-corruption crusader. (46m11s)
• Leaders perceived as personally honest, like Narendra Modi of India, can be more effective due to their perceived integrity. However, this perception can also undermine democracy if people see a trade-off between strong leadership and democratic values, potentially reducing support for democratic systems. (47m2s)
• Empirical evidence shows a causal relationship between major corruption scandals and decreased support for democracy. Surveys conducted before and after such scandals in Latin America reveal increased perceptions of corruption, decreased trust in institutions, and a rise in support for authoritarianism, along with a reduced likelihood of voting. A randomized control trial in Oaxaca, Mexico, supports these findings. (47m50s)

A Study on Corruption and Trust in Democracy in Mexico

• A study was conducted in Mexico where people were shown footage of various types of corrupt activity, including some involving the brother of the incumbent president, to see how it would affect their trust in democracy and willingness to vote (48m40s).
• The study found that reminding people of the sacrifices Mexicans have made and the ways they have built democracy did not have a significant impact on rebuilding trust in democracy (49m5s).
• However, giving people common financial exposures and the ability to invest together in the national economy had somewhat promising results in increasing support for trust and willingness to turn out to vote (49m28s).
• The study also found that when a second brother of the president was implicated in a corruption scandal, it had a cumulative impact on people's trust in democracy (49m50s).

The Role of Technology, Apex Corruption, and Leadership in Democracy

• The expansion of technology and social media has reinforced echo chamber effects, leading to polarization and undermining support for democratic institutions, not just in the US but around the world (50m16s).
• Apex corruption at the very top is particularly important and has not been studied as much as it should be, but it also creates room for apex honesty and leadership (50m42s).
• The speaker emphasizes the importance of leadership and people who can coordinate the equilibrium to create positive change (50m56s).
• The speaker is looking forward to the next generation of leaders to create the fourth wave of democracy (51m8s).

Questions and Discussion on Democratic Backsliding

• Questions were raised about the evidence of objective backsliding of democracy in the US, and how to code for language to measure subjective backsliding (51m25s).
• Another question was asked about countries like Singapore and Wanda, which are not quite democratic but well-functioning, and whether it is due to competent and benevolent leaders or democratic structures with checks and balances (51m54s).
• A question was also asked about the future of democracy and how to learn from the past to create positive change (52m12s).

The Cyclical Nature of Democracy and the Challenge of Incentivizing Honesty

• The discussion explores the cyclical nature of democracy, comparing it to economic cycles, and questions whether democratic backsliding follows a predictable pattern. (52m22s)
• There is an inquiry into the relationship between anonymous leadership and trust in government, with a reference to Switzerland where many citizens are unaware of their president, yet the system functions effectively. (52m41s)
• The challenge of incentivizing honesty among top leaders is highlighted, noting that leaders who apologize for wrongdoing are often perceived more negatively than those who do not. (53m5s)
• Evidence of democratic backsliding is discussed, with a focus on the breakdown of norms and tactics used by leaders in declining democracies, which can predict serious declines in democratic systems. (53m34s)

Benevolent Dictatorships and the Effectiveness of Non-Democracies

• The concept of benevolent dictatorships is examined, noting that while democracies like the U.S. can appear dysfunctional, non-democracies like China and Singapore can efficiently implement decisions due to factors like civil service quality and respect for government work. (54m32s)
• The U.S. is criticized for its negative perception of government work and inadequate compensation, contrasting with places like Singapore where government work is respected and salaries are competitive with top CEOs. (55m2s)
• The complexity of democracy is acknowledged, with the observation that non-democracies can deliver effective governance if they are not overly corrupt. (55m56s)

The Invisibility of Corruption and the Importance of Creating Conditions for Honesty

• Corruption is noted as often being invisible, with references to secretive jurisdictions and financial scandals like the Panama Papers and Pandora Papers. (56m5s)
• There is a discussion on the importance of creating conditions that make honesty easier among leaders, rather than relying solely on incentives. The selection of committed individuals who are willing to step up is crucial, as the belief that corruption is necessary for political success can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. (56m21s)
• The concept of power is explored, with a reference to a popular business school course on paths to power. It is noted that the path to power is often not straightforward or ethical, and society should be more discerning about equating power with money and admiring those who exploit the system. (57m21s)

The Path to Power and Societal Values

• The situation in Rwanda is discussed as an example of a country prioritizing order, security, and stability over freedom and public debate, especially in the aftermath of genocide. The leadership has maintained peace and growth, but there are concerns about human rights, free press, and succession planning. (58m41s)
• It is noted that one-party states can sometimes have effective governance due to internal competition within the party or movement, rather than external electoral competition. This internal competition can influence who rises to power within the party. (59m47s)
• Effective leaders can emerge from grassroots movements, but this is not always the case, and sometimes one-party states can dominate, leading to autocratic leadership (1h0m13s).

The Role of People's Acceptance and Culture in Democracy

• The willingness of the people to accept democracy as a process is crucial for a country's democratic development, and in countries like Russia, there is debate about whether the people's acceptance of autocracy is a factor (1h0m32s).
• The culture of democracy and people's expectations play a significant role in shaping their willingness to accept democracy, and certain habits and narratives can become self-reinforcing (1h0m59s).
• In Russia, the experience of democratization after the Soviet Union broke up was rushed and lacked institutions, leading to a bad experience and eventual backsliding (1h1m50s).

The Case of Russia: Democratic Values and Autocratic Suppression

• Despite this, there is evidence that democratic values exist in Russia, particularly in urban areas, but the strong and effective state has suppressed these values since Putin's election (1h2m31s).
• The speaker is long-term optimistic about Russia's democratic future but short-term pessimistic, and notes that Bill Browder will be speaking on Thursday (1h2m53s).