Ep54 “The Rise And Fall of Great Societies: Lessons from History” with Victor Davis Hanson

Introduction and Historical Context

• The topic of discussion is the history of progress, with the goal of placing current anxieties about the future into historical context and gaining perspective from past civilizations (30s).
• Many people believe that current problems are unique and that history offers no lessons, but human beings and their problems have remained relatively constant over time, with only the forms of those problems changing (1m17s).
• Examining past civilizations that reached pinnacles of progress, such as ancient Greece and Rome, can provide insight into the current state of affairs and whether progress is always a guaranteed outcome (1m33s).
• Despite long-term progress, human history has experienced centuries of setbacks, including declining standards of living, and the current era of progress may be an anomaly (2m6s).

The Industrial Revolution and Progress

• The Industrial Revolution has dominated economic thinking over the past 200 years, during which time there has been significant progress, including a decline in extreme poverty from 90% to less than 10% globally (2m22s).
• However, looking at a broader historical context, such as the past 2,000 to 3,000 years, reveals that civilizations can decline and even collapse, suggesting that progress is not always a guaranteed outcome (3m14s).
• In recent times, there has been significant progress in reducing poverty, with the percentage of the global population living in poverty decreasing from 50% to less than 10% over the past 60 years (3m38s).
• This reduction in poverty is a remarkable achievement that has never been seen before on a global scale, and it is worth examining the historical context of this progress (3m53s).

Progress and Well-being

• The world has experienced unprecedented growth, lifting people out of poverty, but many affluent individuals still believe times are bad due to environmental and social issues, focusing on the negative aspects rather than the progress made (4m26s).
• The sense of well-being people experience may not be determined by their current level of wealth, but rather by the changes and improvements they experience, with progress itself being a key factor in reducing anxiety and angst (5m12s).
• In a stagnating world where growth has stopped or is shrinking, even at high levels, it can lead to psychological angst, particularly among the young generation, despite people living better than their parents (5m52s).

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

• The last 200 years have been an exception in human history, with most of the time experiencing no economic growth, and it's only in exceptional times that growth occurs, such as in ancient civilizations like Egypt, Rome, and Mesopotamia (6m24s).
• Wealthy civilizations can collapse, and it's often forgotten what conditions made them successful and what is required to maintain that success, as seen in the example of Nokia's collapse (7m17s).
• Keeping sophisticated societies functioning at high levels requires significant investment and effort, and the question arises whether the decadence that comes with high levels of welfare is contrary to achieving these goals (7m54s).
• Societies that succeed often take their success for granted and forget what it took to achieve it, which may lead to a decline in the conditions necessary for success (8m18s).
• This phenomenon can be observed across generations and may induce cycles of success and failure (8m35s).

Factors Contributing to Societal Decline

• Historically, many great societies have come to an end, and understanding the reasons behind their decline can provide valuable insights (10m8s).
• A German scholar in the 19th century identified 245 reasons for the fall of Rome, but a more common factor is the increasing complexity of societies, leading to centralized knowledge and a loss of autonomy (10m17s).
• The Minoans, for example, were a highly capable and advanced civilization that vanished around 1200 BC, possibly due to a centralized system that led to a loss of individual autonomy (10m45s).
• The Linear B tablets suggest that the Minoans had a system where everything was controlled by the palace, leading to a loss of self-sufficiency among the population (11m12s).
• The disappearance of writing in Greece for about 500 years after the decline of the Minoans and the subsequent reemergence of writing with the Phoenician alphabet mark a significant shift in societal paradigms (11m28s).
• The city-states of ancient Greece, with their decentralized systems and strong middle class, provide a contrasting example of a society that valued individual knowledge and autonomy (11m42s).
• The same pattern can be observed in the decline of Rome and the Byzantines, where a dependence on a particular hierarchy led to a loss of individual autonomy and ultimately contributed to their downfall (11m57s).

Specialization and Vulnerability

• Victor Davis Hanson, a renowned expert in the field, has studied the rise and fall of various civilizations and can provide valuable insights into the factors that contribute to their success and decline (9m38s).
• Societies with highly specialized hierarchies are vulnerable due to their reliance on a small number of people with specific knowledge, as seen in the Aztecs and other historical civilizations (12m5s).
• Specialization can lead to an increase in the standard of living, but also results in greater vulnerability, creating a delicate balance between these two factors (12m30s).
• The concentration of power in a small number of people can be problematic, as seen in the administrative state, where some individuals may not have the necessary skills or morality to wield such power (13m2s).
• The current society is highly specialized, with complex technologies like computer chips requiring a large number of people with specific skills to maintain, making it vulnerable to disruptions (13m40s).
• The question arises as to when a society becomes too specialized and sensitive, and whether people would be able to handle basic needs like sewage, water, and food if the system were to fail (14m24s).
• The COVID-19 lockdowns and panic demonstrated the fragility of modern society, with people unable to access basic necessities like toilet paper and medical care (14m41s).
• The ability of individuals to survive without the system, such as those living on farms with their own gardens and water sources, highlights the importance of self-sufficiency (15m4s).
• The trade-off between standard of living and fragility is a crucial consideration, as pushing specialization too far can lead to the downfall of a society (15m58s).

Affluence and Defense

• In today's multi-polar world, affluent and specialized societies tend to be reluctant to spend on their defense, feeling they have transcended the need for it, as seen in historical examples such as Athens, Rome, and Byzantium (16m20s).
• This reluctance is often accompanied by a lack of awareness of potential threats, as people in affluent societies tend to believe that human nature has changed and that evil no longer exists in the world (17m9s).
• The idea that Europe is vulnerable to external threats was not fully realized until Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and the same concern applies to the United States, which is building the wrong and too few defense platforms at too high a cost (17m33s).
• Historically, when a society's interest on its debt exceeds its capital for defense, it is a sign that something is not sustainable, and the current situation in the United States, where the annual debt service exceeds the defense budget, is a cause for concern (18m1s).

Prosperity and Moral Decline

• Affluence and leisure seem to be antithetical to military preparedness and deterrence, and there are historical examples of societies that have achieved great prosperity but felt they were at the worst of times (18m17s).
• One such example is the period of the five good emperors in ancient Rome, which was considered the greatest period of material prosperity before the industrial revolution, but was also marked by a sense of moral decline and pessimism in the literature of the time (19m13s).
• This phenomenon is not unique to modern times, as it is also described in ancient Greek literature, such as Hesiod's Works and Days, which suggests that material progress is often accompanied by moral regress (19m58s).
• As societies become more affluent and conquer elemental challenges such as disease and food, people tend to become more self-centered and less focused on morality and spirituality, with a decrease in religiosity and a sense of transcendence (20m7s).
• Historically, affluent societies have exhibited certain characteristics, such as an obsession with exotic food, deprecation of soldiers and military people, transvestism or sexual ambiguity, and a lack of fertility, which can be seen as signs of decadence and luxury (21m10s).
• Despite material prosperity, people may feel that they have lost something from their ancestors or parents, leading to a sense of introspection and questioning of their values (21m40s).
• The human experience is marked by a tendency to become ambiguous about morality as societies become richer and more prosperous, leading to more questionable morality (22m20s).

Maintaining Moral Values in Affluent Societies

• After the fall of the Roman Empire, humanity spent a thousand years looking back at that time as a golden age of knowledge, wealth, and everything, and a similar phenomenon may be happening again today (22m32s).
• It is more difficult for an affluent and leisured society to instill a moral code or humility than it is for a less wealthy society to become wealthy, and the challenge is to maintain a moral code and values in the face of wealth and prosperity (22m54s).
• The pathway to wealth is known to be free market capitalism, but the challenge is to balance wealth with a moral code and values, such as maintaining a high fertility rate, limiting divorce, and having a moral code that goes beyond what is legal (23m11s).
• Societies today are grappling with the challenge of enjoying affluence and leisure without losing their souls, with various movements questioning how to balance material prosperity with moral values (23m51s).

Existential Threats and Paranoia

• The existential worry about the end of the world, such as concerns about global warming, is a phenomenon that has been observed throughout history, with societies often exhibiting a sense of anxiety and fear about their own demise (24m6s).
• Many people perceive non-existent existential threats, such as global warming, as world-ending events, largely due to secularism and the fear of death in affluent societies where basic needs are met and life expectancy is high (24m21s).
• Societies with low birth rates, such as those with one-child policies, tend to be more hesitant to go to war, but they also exhibit increased paranoia about extending lifespan and avoiding death (25m11s).
• Material progress has led to the control and mastery of many aspects of life, but the ultimate challenge of death remains, leading some to feel God-like and attempt to conquer it through means such as Silicon Valley's Mega supplements and infusions (25m31s).
• The more successful a society is at mastering age-old challenges, the more arrogant its members become, leading to a sense of invincibility and a desire to extend lifespan at all costs (26m17s).
• This paranoia about extending lifespan leads to a focus on slaying dragons that aren't there, such as the constant stream of studies claiming that certain behaviors will increase or decrease lifespan by small amounts (27m18s).
• The optimal response to the lack of existential threats in modern society may be to invent new ones, as people need meaning and purpose, which can be provided by perceived threats (27m51s).

Utopianism vs. Realism

• The idea that human nature can be altered and that people can be made less prejudiced is a symptom of the paranoia about extending lifespan and avoiding death, but it is also a very dangerous concept (26m57s).
• The notion that we have progressed to the point where certain events, such as war, cannot happen is a misconception, as evidenced by events such as Putin's invasion of Ukraine (28m11s).
• There's a utopian and humanitarian approach that doesn't allow for the use of force, but this approach may not be effective in dealing with certain situations or individuals, such as Putin (28m18s).
• A more realistic approach might involve using force or taking a stronger stance, rather than simply giving a lecture or trying to shame the other party into compliance (28m26s).
• In order to deal with situations that require a stronger response, it may be necessary to have individuals who are capable of taking action, such as those from a Special Forces background (28m43s).

Conclusion and Credits

• The conversation has been enlightening and has covered a range of topics, with the guest, Victor, sharing his insights and expertise (28m50s).
• The podcast is a joint production of the LA Institute at the University of Pennsylvania and The Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, and is produced by University FM (29m45s).
• The podcast is available on various platforms, and listeners can subscribe or follow the show to catch future episodes (29m20s).
• Listeners can also visit the podcast's website or follow the show on LinkedIn for more information (29m28s).
• The podcast's hosts, Jonathan and Jules, are widely admired at the Hoover institution (29m6s).