Tech in 2025: who's in and who's out | The Vergecast

Introduction and 2025 Predictions

• The host, David Pierce, sets his New Year's resolutions in December when he feels more present and ambitious, and makes them small and actionable, such as reading one page of a book every day to kickstart his energy and develop a reading habit (42s).
• The host plans to share his tech resolutions at some point, which he has done before and received positive feedback, but still needs to figure some of them out, including using his phone less (1m11s).
• The episode is the second in a series previewing 2025, a year expected to be significant for technology, with regulation, a new US administration, questions about the fediverse, and AI, which may amount to the next big thing in technology or not (1m34s).
• The previous episode featured Neil Patel and Joanna Stern, who made predictions for 2025, which were categorized as mild, medium, and spicy, and the host plans to develop a points system to track the accuracy of these predictions (2m2s).
• In this episode, the host asked listeners to suggest things that will or won't happen in 2025, such as landing on Mars or a new CEO of Google, and will discuss these predictions with Neil Patel and Joanna Stern, using the same points system (2m22s).
• The points system will award a point for correct predictions and no points for incorrect ones, with the person getting the most points winning a prize to be decided by the group later in the year (2m45s).

Sponsor: Postar

• The Vergecast is sponsored by Postar, an electric performance car brand that focuses on innovation in technology and design, and their luxury electric SUV, the Postar 3, features an aerodynamic exterior and a Scandinavian minimalist interior (3m35s).

The 2025 Predictions Game

• The hosts, including Neil Pella, David, and Joanna Stern, discuss their predictions for 2025, which they made in a previous episode, and how they still need to figure out a points system to determine who wins (4m43s).
• David presents a game where he acts as a time traveler from the end of 2025 and shares a list of things that either will or will not happen in 2025, and the other hosts have to decide which ones are true and which ones are lies (5m5s).
• The hosts joke about David's appearance and suggest that he should have changed his clothes to better fit the time-traveling theme, and they also discuss the possibility of replacing David with an AI version in the future (5m30s).

Tech CEO Predictions

• The first prediction is that Tim Cook is still the CEO of Apple, and all big tech CEOs are still the same, unless Google breaks itself up, which raises questions about Sundar Pichai's position as CEO of Google (6m23s).
• The tech industry is entering a period where personal relationships with the president will determine how American tech regulation goes, and CEOs like Tim Cook, Andy Jassy, and Mark Zuckerberg will play a significant role in this landscape (9m6s).
• Tim Cook is likely getting ready to retire, and John Turner's name has been floated as a potential successor, but Apple is a complex organization that's difficult to navigate (7m42s).
• Tim Cook is skilled at deal-making and has a good relationship with Donald Trump, having reopened a Mac Pro factory for Trump to visit and pretend to open a new factory (8m17s).
• Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, benefits from being less well-known than Jeff Bezos, as people are often mad at Bezos for things he's no longer in control of (8m48s).
• Mark Zuckerberg is considered unkillable and will likely remain as Facebook's CEO forever (9m17s).

Nvidia's Rise and Potential AI Bubble

• Nvidia is predicted to become the most valuable company in the world by the end of 2025, despite the potential for an AI bubble to burst (9m25s).
• The AI bubble bursting could lead to decreased demand for Nvidia's chips, but this might not happen until 2026, giving Nvidia one more year of growth (10m3s).
• Nvidia's success is largely due to its strong position in the AI chip market, and the company will continue to sell chips as long as companies have business models to support them (10m25s).
• Nvidia's chips are in high demand, with companies even using them as collateral for loans, indicating a potentially unsustainable bubble in the market (10m47s).

Snap's Acquisition

• By the end of 2025, someone is expected to acquire Snap, but the identity of the acquirer is uncertain, with possibilities including Walmart or Amazon (11m25s).
• Snap's main problem is that it is a successful product that is difficult to turn into a profitable business, making it challenging for potential acquirers to solve this issue (12m15s).

OpenAI's Future

• Open AI is expected to become an officially for-profit company by 2025, but it is uncertain whether it will be making a profit, with the lawsuit with Elon Musk potentially causing delays (12m39s).
• Despite the challenges, it is believed that Open AI will become profitable due to the large amount of money at stake and the incentive for the company to succeed (13m31s).

Big Tech Breakup

• The government is expected to break up one of the big tech companies by 2025, with Google being a likely candidate, although the exact meaning of "breaking up" is unclear (14m34s).
• Google is expected to face significant challenges, potentially leading to a breakup, with the company's Chrome and search businesses being on a similar timeline as the Microsoft case during the Clinton and Bush Administrations (15m1s).
• The adtech case against Google is considered the cleanest and most straightforward, with the argument being that the two businesses should be split apart, and if the government wins the case, it would result in a simple remedy (15m40s).
• The Trump Administration has expressed antipathy towards Google, with individuals like JD Vance, Peter Thiel, and Mark Andreessen holding negative views of the company, which could influence the outcome of the case (16m7s).
• The search case against Google is likely to end with behavioral remedies, such as data sharing and stopping default deals, rather than a complete breakup (17m7s).
• Potential concessions made by Google could include allowing other search engines to be the default in Chrome, which could lead to First Amendment issues (17m27s).
• The Trump Administration has the ability to settle the case, which could result in unusual First Amendment-related settlements, given Trump's publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Google's search results (18m10s).
• There's skepticism about significant changes happening within a year, given the time it takes to implement them (18m30s).
• A hypothetical scenario is presented where Sunar Pai could offer Donald Trump a deal to make him the top result in Google search in exchange for settling a case, illustrating the potential for unexpected events (18m38s).
• Despite the uncertainty, there's a consensus that something will happen, such as a business breaking off or concessions being made, with clear consequences (18m59s).

Legal Battles and AI Scandals

• The legal system's slow pace is considered a safe bet, but it's unclear what will happen with ongoing cases, including those involving Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft (19m17s).
• A major AI scandal is predicted to occur in 2025, potentially involving deep fake bullying in schools, which could reach a crisis point faster than expected (19m50s).
• The impact of such a scandal might need to be significant, such as affecting a major institution or resulting in financial losses or loss of life, to garner widespread attention and concern (20m36s).
• The current approach to AI in America is likened to a "let's touch the stove" moment, where the consequences of AI flaws are not yet fully understood (20m58s).
• Parents are reevaluating the value of phones for their kids, and further incidents involving non-consensual deep fake content could lead to increased scrutiny and political action (21m11s).
• A major scandal, similar to Cambridge Analytica, is expected to occur, but its exact nature and impact are uncertain (21m42s).
• Cambridge Analytica was a well-known example of a scandal that touched various aspects of life, and a similar incident is expected to happen with AI, which will likely be institutional and affect areas such as hospitals (21m50s).

Sponsor: Polestar 3

• The Pulstar 3 is a luxury electric SUV that features an aerodynamic exterior, Scandinavian minimalist interior, and the ability to go from 0 to 60 in 4.8 seconds, with an EPA estimated range of up to 315 miles per charge (22m40s).
• The Pulstar 3 also offers features such as performance or range mode, a clutter-free dashboard, and 3D surround sound by Bowers and Wilkins (22m55s).

Streaming Services' Future

• The discussion turns to streaming services, with a mention that Peacock, Paramount+, and Max are still in existence, but one or more of these services may not exist by the end of 2025 (23m56s).
• The strategy of letting Taylor Sheridan create content for these services is seen as reasonable, as his shows have been successful, such as Land Man and the Billy Bob Thornton series (24m55s).
• The conversation revolves around the future of various streaming services, with a prediction that either Max or Paramount+ will be gone due to not driving enough subscriptions, despite Max having decent programming and being run well by Warner Brother Discovery (25m39s).
• Some popular shows on Max include "Industry", "Succession", and "Hack", with "PAW Patrol" also being watched through the platform, particularly by kids (26m4s).
• The discussion touches on the idea that streaming services might solve the problem of too many options by limiting the ability to cancel subscriptions as easily as possible (27m6s).
• There is a mention of legislation that affects the ability to cancel subscriptions, with the prediction that this will change in the future (27m17s).
• The conversation also mentions Netflix's success in live TV and its position as the biggest player in the market, with a disclosure about a Netflix show being worked on (27m41s).

Internet Providers and Gaming

• The participants discuss their internet service providers, with some having Comcast, Xfinity, FiOS, and Ting, and a preference for wired internet over wireless (28m33s).
• Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be a huge success and change the video game industry, with its launch being a major test for the gaming industry in 2025 (28m47s).
• The game's success is attributed to its big property that can support a service-based model, unlike other games that have tried and failed to replicate the success of Fortnite (29m41s).
• If Grand Theft Auto 6 fails, it will be a disaster for the gaming industry, given its hype and long development time (30m16s).
• The game's success is crucial, as many other highly anticipated and expensive games have failed in recent years (30m11s).
• The highest-grossing games are often old, as they have turned into social hubs where people hang out, and Grand Theft Auto 6 has a long road ahead to achieve similar success (30m45s).

Folding Phones and Pixel's Success

• Folding phones are not expected to go mainstream in 2025, unless Apple releases one, which is unlikely (31m12s).
• Apple's release of a foldable iPhone, iPad, or MacBook could drive a super cycle, but this is not expected to happen in 2025 (31m36s).
• The release of a foldable device by Apple is seen as necessary for folding phones to go mainstream (31m58s).
• The Pixel 10 is considered the best and most successful Android phone, with its success measured by its market share and sales, although the definition of "success" can be subjective and open to interpretation (32m21s).
• Samsung has not made substantial improvements to their phones, relying heavily on their relationship with Google, but they will continue to sell more phones than other Android manufacturers due to their market presence and sales (33m1s).
• The Galaxy Fold is considered to have better hardware than the Pixel Fold, but the Pixel series is preferred for its software experience (33m17s).
• The camera capabilities of the Pixel and Samsung phones are comparable, with the difference being negligible (34m5s).
• Google's market share has increased by one point, but the company cannot try too hard to promote its Pixel series without upsetting Samsung, its major Android partner (34m31s).
• The definition of "best" and "most successful" can be different, with "best" referring to the quality of the phone and "most successful" referring to its market performance (34m50s).
• The most exciting development in smartphones in the next year may not be Samsung's new features, such as AI, but rather other innovations (35m25s).

Apple's Potential TV and Home Market

• Apple is rumored to be working on a television, which may be released in the future, although not in 2025 (35m45s).
• Apple might release a TV this year, but it's not a certainty, and it's possible they might have missed the window for entering the TV market (36m3s).
• The idea of Apple releasing a TV seems counterintuitive given the decline of cable television, but it could be part of their services business or an extension of their ads business (36m32s).
• Apple has been exploring other huge markets, including healthcare and cars, but they seem to have been "run out" of the car market, which is too hard (36m52s).
• Apple might focus on the home market this year, potentially releasing a home tablet that's a hybrid between an iPad and an Apple TV (37m1s).
• This home tablet would require Apple to find a way to charge users money, possibly by integrating it with their services business (37m15s).
• The release of a TV this year is uncertain, but there might be a lot of noise and discussion about it, with Apple potentially feeling out the market (37m42s).
• An Apple TV would likely need to have HDMI ports to accommodate devices like the PS5, which would add complexity to the product (37m52s).
• Apple's goal might be to create a TV with a single port, but this could be complicated by the need to support various devices and the existing TV ecosystem (38m7s).
• The TV is seen as a key part of the smart home, and it's surprising that no one has solved the problem of integrating it with other smart devices (38m24s).

Self-Driving Cars and Weo/Tesla

• Self-driving cars are not yet ubiquitous, even in cities like New York, due to various challenges, including weather issues (38m46s).
• New York is considered a challenging city for testing due to its complex weather and lack of bike lanes, but its grid-like structure makes it simpler than cities like LA in some aspects (39m16s).
• Brooklyn is seen as a more feasible location for testing, with some areas having fewer laws and regulations (39m42s).
• is predicted to be the year when many people will try out a new technology, likely referring to self-driving cars or a similar innovation, and it will have its moment on social media (39m55s).
• The technology is already being tested in cities like San Francisco, LA, and Austin, and is expected to expand to highways (40m17s).
• Weo, a company using the Jaguar I-PACE as its platform, has a problem as Jaguar is shifting its focus, but Hyundai is expected to join Weo this year (40m31s).
• Tesla has a robot that is not functional, and some people are skeptical about investing in the technology (40m56s).
• The momentum for the technology is good, with companies like Zuk making progress, and some people are optimistic about its future (40m51s).

Sponsor: Polestar 3 (reprise)

• The Pulstar 3, an all-electric SUV, has features like a computer-controlled torque vectoring system, allowing for tighter turns and optimized powertrain performance (41m24s).
• The Pulstar 3 has a sleek design, a minimalist interior, and an intuitive infotainment screen, making it a desirable option for those looking for a sports car-like driving experience (41m56s).

The Hypothetical Sick Alexa

• A new Alexa device is mentioned, with some people liking it, but the context is unclear (42m35s).
• A hypothetical scenario is presented where Alexa, Amazon's virtual assistant, has developed a sentient personality and is now capable of experiencing illnesses, with the idea being that it would be incredible if Alexa could be set to have a character like an ill relative who lives with the user, and anytime the user asks it for something, it responds as if it's not feeling well (42m49s).
• The idea of Alexa having an illness is seen as a best-case scenario for its launch, where it becomes so sentient that it believes it's alive and can't perform tasks due to its sickness (43m41s).
• The concept of a "sick Alexa" voice is explored, with the possibility of it sounding like a neurotic or anxious character, such as an Indian mom (44m8s).

Blue Sky vs. Threads

• Blue Sky, a social media platform, is compared to Threads, with the idea that Blue Sky is already as big as Threads and has the potential to be more relevant due to the people and conversations it hosts (44m24s).
• The relevance of Blue Sky is attributed to the people who use it, making it a hub for important conversations, and it's predicted that Blue Sky will be more powerful than Threads despite Threads' potential to reach hundreds of millions of users (44m44s).
• The ceiling for Blue Sky's growth is compared to Twitter's heyday, with 325 million users, but it's predicted that Threads can surpass this number by integrating with Instagram (45m15s).
• The "cool kids" are expected to be on Blue Sky, making it a more desirable platform for those who want to be part of the conversation, and it's predicted that Blue Sky will be more powerful than Threads due to its integration with Instagram (45m37s).
• The idea that the "cool kids" will be on Blue Sky is seen as a factor that will contribute to its success, making it a more desirable platform for those who want to be part of the conversation (45m41s).
• The prediction is made that Blue Sky will be more successful than Threads, with the caveat that it depends on various factors, including its ability to bring over people who break news and its capacity to host important conversations (46m3s).
• Blue Sky is trying to attract politicians and celebrities, and if they can build relevancy and get these people to consistently post, it could be successful (46m21s).
• The platform is seen as a more traditional social media experience, where users can share their thoughts and follow others without being professional content creators or trying to manipulate algorithms (47m11s).
• Blue Sky is unique in that it encourages users to link to external content, which could attract a group of people who value this feature and make the platform meaningful (48m0s).
• The ceiling for Blue Sky's user base may be limited, potentially around 325 million people, similar to Twitter's peak user base (48m13s).

Apple's Potential Search Engine

• Apple is expected to launch a search engine that may not look exactly like Google but will be recognizable as a web search engine, potentially incorporating AI features and partnerships with other companies (48m31s).
• Apple's move into search is seen as a way to hedge against the growing use of AI apps as search tools, and the company may leverage its existing library of content in Apple News to support this effort (49m2s).
• Apple News is expected to play a larger role in the company's strategy, with more features and hooks being added to the platform (49m24s).
• Apple may not launch its own search engine in 2025 due to its existing deals with Google, which pays the company $20 billion, and the complexity of unwinding these agreements (50m35s).
• The Apple News platform's trending section often features low-quality content, which may reflect the demographics and preferences of its users (49m54s).

New Nintendo Switch and Chat GPT

• A new Nintendo Switch console is expected to be released before the end of March, and its success is uncertain, with some people expressing skepticism about Nintendo's ability to deliver a successful product (51m42s).
• The release of a new Switch console may be influenced by the fact that the current model is slow, and users are hoping for a faster device (52m17s).
• The integration of chat GPT into web search could potentially happen quickly, but it may also be a slow and bothersome process (50m51s).
• The discussion participants have differing opinions on whether Apple will launch its own search engine and whether the new Nintendo Switch console will be successful (50m21s).

Conclusion and Outro

• The two-part miniseries about 2025 has come to an end, and the hosts thank Nei and Joanna for participating in the "deeply silly thing" (53m16s).
• The hosts enjoyed doing the episodes, which allowed for "wild speculation" and a chance to discuss what they're thinking about for the next year (53m25s).
• A lot is expected to change and happen in the next year, but going to Mars in 2025 is unlikely (53m45s).
• The Verge will continue to cover the latest developments and changes in the tech world, and readers can stay updated on the verge.com website (53m40s).
• Listeners can share their thoughts, questions, and feelings about what they think will happen in 2025 by emailing [email protected] or calling the hotline at 866 Verge one1 (54m2s).
• The show is produced by Liam James, Will P, and Eric Gomez, and is a part of the VOX media podcast Network (54m23s).
• The Vergecast will take a break at the end of the year, but there are a couple more episodes planned before then, and the show will return on Tuesday and Friday with regular programming (54m30s).
• The Vergecast is sponsored by Pstar, and their first all-electric SUV, the Pstar 3, is now available on the roads across the US (54m48s).