Tesla’s bot non-disclosure and why humanoid robots are taking off | Equity Podcast

Introduction

• The podcast episode focuses on the trend of humanoid robots, highlighting that Tesla's Optimus bot is not the only player in the field, as other companies are also developing humanoid robots but may not be as vocal about it. (26s)
• During a recent Tesla event titled "We Robot," there was an expectation of updates on the Optimus robot and the robotaxi, but the event mainly featured robots dancing and interacting with guests, with no significant new information disclosed. (1m0s)
• It was later revealed that the humanoid robots at the event were being remotely controlled, at least in terms of speech, although some movement might have been AI-driven. This lack of disclosure led to some surprise, although similar situations have occurred before. (1m44s)
• Tesla has been showcasing progress videos of the Optimus robot for about three years, starting from a person in a suit, and has hired experts from companies like Boston Dynamics. However, some demonstrations, such as a video of the robot folding a shirt, were later found to involve human assistance, which was not initially disclosed. (2m46s)
• The lack of transparency in presenting these robots as cutting-edge technology without disclosing remote operation can mislead the public into believing more progress has been made than is actually the case, which could be seen as a disservice to the industry. (3m22s)

Tesla's Self-Driving and Robot Demonstrations

• Tesla has faced criticism for not meeting expectations with its full self-driving technology, which has been in development for years but often fails to deliver on its promises when released to the market. (3m54s)
• At a recent event, a video of Tesla's Optimus bot was shown, where the bot appeared to speak with human-like voices and gestures, raising questions about whether it was remotely controlled or using advanced AI like xAI's chatbot. (4m17s)
• The event aimed to boost investor confidence and promote Tesla's vision of the future, but there were concerns about the lack of transparency in demonstrating the technology. (4m48s)
• Tesla has previously been criticized for misleading demonstrations, such as an autopilot video that did not disclose the number of failed attempts, leading to accusations of "lies by omission." (5m42s)
• In contrast, companies like Boston Dynamics have started showing outtakes in their videos to provide a more transparent view of their technology, highlighting the importance of understanding the potential for creative editing in tech demos. (6m17s)
• Elon Musk is recognized for his self-promotion skills, and while Tesla's presentations are effective in generating excitement, there is skepticism about the timelines and feasibility of the technology, especially among those with emotional and financial investments in the company. (6m35s)
• Tesla has been criticized for repeatedly making ambitious promises about its technology, such as Full Self-Driving (FSD), without delivering on them, leading to skepticism and debate. (7m12s)

Transparency and Misleading Demonstrations

• Tesla has previously been criticized for misleading demonstrations, such as an autopilot video that did not disclose the number of failed attempts, leading to accusations of "lies by omission." (5m42s)
• In contrast, companies like Boston Dynamics have started showing outtakes in their videos to provide a more transparent view of their technology, highlighting the importance of understanding the potential for creative editing in tech demos. (6m17s)

The Rise of Humanoid Robots and Industry Players

• Companies like Boston Dynamics and Agility Robotics are highlighted as key players in the humanoid robotics space, with Agility being noted for moving beyond pilot projects and conducting in-person demonstrations. (8m7s)
• There is a significant increase in investment in the humanoid robotics industry, with nearly $1 billion in venture capital funding reported for the year, despite fewer deals compared to the previous year. (9m12s)

Motivations and Factors Driving Humanoid Robot Development

• The push for humanoid robots is driven by several factors, including advancements in technology, the impact of the pandemic on automation needs, and the potential for humanoid robots to integrate into existing human-centric environments, such as factories. (9m35s)
• There is general excitement around the warehouse side of things, with the notion that humanoid robots can walk over certain terrains that people can't, and that they can potentially bring the price down and bring them into the home once they get to scale (10m52s).
• Analysts and investors think that it might be cheaper to build humanoid robots and plug them into existing factories, rather than retooling for a different type of automation, citing Amazon as an example of a company that is about 10 years ahead of everyone else in automating their fulfillment centers (11m12s).
• Amazon's head of Robotics, Ty Brady, mentioned that their new high-tech fulfillment center in Louisiana will be built into an existing fulfillment center, as even a company with Amazon's resources can't just stop everything and rebuild from scratch (11m46s).

Labor Shortage, Automation, and Job Displacement

• The labor shortage in the US might be partly due to companies like Amazon not wanting to pay workers a higher wage, rather than an actual shortage of workers, and the introduction of robots could either displace workers or make their jobs easier and improve the quality of life (12m20s).
• The shift in expectations with e-commerce has led to a need for more workers, and the salary on the Amazon factory floor has gone up, but there is a risk that automation could displace workers and widen the income gap (13m0s).
• The concept of upskilling, or training workers to work with robots, might be difficult to implement, especially for older workers who have been doing the same job their entire life, but it could also lead to a future where robots assist workers and improve the quality of life (13m32s).
• The introduction of robots in the workforce could have both good and bad outcomes, and it's uncertain which one will prevail (13m10s).

Challenges and Applications of Humanoid Robots

• Humanoid robots, like those envisioned by Elon Musk, are being considered for various household tasks, such as shopping and pouring drinks, but their widespread home use is uncertain due to high costs and complexity. (14m30s)
• Currently, single-purpose robots are more practical and cost-effective, especially in factory settings, where environments are more controlled compared to the dynamic nature of homes. (14m53s)
• The development of humanoid robots for home use involves challenges related to generalized intelligence, which requires robots to learn and adapt to new situations, a task more complex in homes than in factories. (15m13s)
• The potential use of robots to assist older adults in living independently is a promising application, but it necessitates ensuring the robots are extremely safe. (16m0s)

Safety Concerns and Standards

• Safety is a major concern when integrating robots into environments with humans, and discussions about safety standards are crucial before deploying robots in homes or factories. (16m18s)
• Elon Musk has mentioned that the robots would be lightweight and could be overpowered if necessary, but safety standards still need to be defined to prevent potential harm. (16m31s)
• Conversations about safety standards for humanoid robots are ongoing, with some industry leaders like Melanie Wise advocating for these discussions, although some companies focused on robot safety no longer exist. (16m58s)
• Historically, industrial robots have been kept in cages on factory floors to protect human workers, highlighting the importance of safety in robot-human interactions. (17m37s)
• The use of robotic arms in industrial settings is becoming more common, with safety measures such as fenced areas to prevent human interaction with the machines. Workers wear vests with technology to stop robots from causing harm if they enter these areas. (17m50s)
• Autonomous robots, like inventory robots in supermarkets, are being developed to operate safely around humans, including children, highlighting the importance of regulatory oversight in automation. (18m35s)

Global Robotics Landscape and Investments

• Japan is leading in robotics, particularly humanoid robots, due to its aging population and shrinking workforce, using robots as a supplement due to limited immigration. (19m10s)
• The development and commercialization of robotics, especially for assisting older people, depend heavily on funding and potential profitability, as seen with the Roomba, which remains one of the few successful robotic home devices. (19m51s)
• There is a prediction of an initial surge in investment in humanoid robots, similar to the early hype around autonomous vehicles, but funding may decrease as the high capital expenditure becomes apparent. However, new AI advancements are sparking renewed interest and investment. (20m26s)
• The development of humanoid robots is considered risky due to high capital expenditure and long timelines before profitability, which could hinder growth. However, there has been some investment in this area recently. (21m3s)
• The interest in humanoid robots is partly driven by Elon Musk's discussions on the topic, making it a trendy area. (21m29s)
• While some areas of robotics, like manufacturing, may have seen a decline, there is still significant investment in sectors like food preparation, indicating ongoing excitement and potential for automation. (21m48s)
• Boston Dynamics has transitioned from a research institute to commercializing products like the Spot robot and the Stretch robot for warehouses. They have also demonstrated their electric Atlas system. (22m6s)
• Companies like Optronic are entering the automotive sector, with deals involving BMW and Mercedes, leveraging the long history of robotics in automotive manufacturing. (22m30s)
• Optronic's team includes members from NASA's Valkyrie humanoid robot project, highlighting their expertise in the field. (22m54s)
• Agility Robotics is noted for being ahead in the development of humanoid robots, while Figure has received significant investment, including $675 million this year. (23m3s)

Challenges and Future of Humanoid Robots

• Nvidia plays a crucial role in the robotics and AI sectors, contributing to programming and development advancements. (23m24s)
• X has explored home robots, although their demo was not particularly impressive. They have early investment from OpenAI and are exploring the integration of generative AI with physical robots. (23m34s)
• There is a cautionary note about humanoid robots with human-like faces, as they can be perceived as creepy and potentially a red flag. (23m58s)
• The hospitality industry is being explored as a potential market for humanoid robots, but it is not considered a large market, as robots in hotels are often seen as gimmicks rather than necessities. (24m20s)
• Electronics manufacturers like Samsung and Xiaomi have demonstrated home robots, but these have not progressed beyond demos, indicating a lack of substantial development in the consumer robot market. (24m45s)
• Robots are often used as a way to signal innovation to investors, but until they are seen performing actual tasks, skepticism remains about their practical implementation. (25m10s)
• Elon Musk has projected that Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will be available for sale by 2026, though such timelines should be approached with caution. (25m29s)
• Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, there could be 63 million humanoid robots in the U.S., with a significant impact on wages, and by 2040, there might be 8 million working humanoid robots. However, these projections are seen as overly optimistic. (25m37s)
• While humanoid robots are expected to become more common in industrial settings in the coming years, achieving generalized intelligence and widespread use outside factories is anticipated to take decades. (26m23s)

Podcast Credits and Social Media Information

• Rebecca Bon can be found on social media platforms X and Threads under the handles Rebecca Bon and Rebecca Bonor WRS, respectively. (27m26s)
• The Equity podcast can also be found on X and Threads under the handle Equity Pod. (27m31s)
• The podcast is produced by Teresa Lo, with editing by Kell Bryce. (27m35s)
• Durban is the illustrator for the podcast, and the audience development team, along with Henry Pit, who manages TechCrunch audio products, are acknowledged for their contributions. (27m43s)