Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY

Bestie intros (0s)

• Freeberg is promoting his product, Super Gut, which is launching nationwide in Target stores across the United States, allowing customers to purchase the GLP1 booster and Prebiotic Shake in any Target store (16s).
• Freeberg mentions that he was planning to do a Super Gut background, but Jcal decided to turn it into a commercial, and he appreciates the support (10s).
• Freeberg expresses his gratitude for the support and mentions that he will be hosting an Election Night Live stream on November 5th, which can be watched live, and Saaks will be hosting it (1m2s).
• There is a possibility that Freeberg might attend an event at Mar-a-Lago on election night, depending on how the election looks for Trump, and he has already spoken to Jared about it (1m37s).
• Freeberg thinks that if the election outcome looks favorable for Trump, it would be a unique experience to be at Mar-a-Lago, but only if the outcome is not rigged (1m49s).

Polls vs Prediction markets, dueling interviews, election update (2m1s)

• Poly Market, a betting market, shows a 60-40 or 65-35 split in favor of Trump, while polls show a different outcome, as Poly Market measures people betting on the outcome, whereas polls measure the percentage of how each person plans to vote (2m6s).
• Nate Silver's model, which takes polls from each state and builds a Monte Carlo model, estimates a 50-50 split, differing from Poly Market's 60-40 split, possibly due to laggy estimates or the betting market's focus on momentum (2m41s).
• Recent presidential interviews, including Trump on Bloomberg and Kamala on Fox, are unlikely to change the outcome, as opinions seem to be already "baked in" (3m12s).
• Kamala's interviews generally don't go well, and her recent Fox interview may not have helped her, despite some on the left praising her performance (3m25s).
• Observations suggest that people on both sides of the political spectrum tend to self-assert their existing beliefs when judging these interviews, making it unlikely for anyone to change their view based on these interviews (4m8s).
• The question remains whether these interviews will appeal to the small sliver of independent voters (4m14s).
• Kamala's staff allegedly tried to end her Fox interview early, waving to cut it off, which may indicate that the interview did not go as well as some claimed (4m32s).
• Despite this, Kamala is given credit for going into the "lion's den" and doing an adversarial interview, which was likely done to address the talking point that she doesn't do such interviews (5m8s).
• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump recently participated in separate presidential interviews, with Harris' interview lasting 26 minutes and Trump's lasting 64 minutes, during which he received a standing ovation from the audience (6m12s).
• Harris was composed and maintained her cool during the interview, but her answers lacked substance and failed to address basic questions, such as whether she had any regrets about her actions in the past three and a half years (6m54s).
• Trump, on the other hand, is known to relish adversarial interviews and is skilled at responding to tough questions, often turning them back on the interviewer (6m1s).
• The mainstream media's characterization of the interviews has been criticized, with some accusing them of being biased and untrustworthy (8m8s).
• Harris has struggled to explain how she differs from Joe Biden on a policy level, beyond superficial differences, and has failed to provide clear answers to this question in multiple interviews (8m44s).
• JD Vance has been questioned repeatedly about his statement that he would not have certified the 2020 presidential election, with many outlets pursuing him for further comment (9m3s).
• JD Vance's interview with Martha Raditz is going viral, where he responded to her statement about foreign gangs taking over apartment buildings, pointing out that even a handful of buildings being taken over is a problem (9m46s).
• Vance's response was seen as compelling and destroyed the narrative that the issue was being overexaggerated (10m0s).
• Neither presidential candidate seems to be introducing new messages or content, but rather repeating previous statements and handling combative reporting tactics (10m38s).
• The election appears to be "baked," with many people having made up their minds and being biased in their views (11m9s).
• JD Vance stated that he doesn't think Trump lost the 2020 election, which may be concerning to some, but it's also seen as a message about the biases and control systems affecting the election process (11m35s).
• Vance's message is not just about Trump, but about the broader issue of biases in the election process, which has been highlighted by Democrats in prior elections as well (12m27s).
• There is a concern about the spread of misinformation on social media platforms and the need for transparency in their censorship and moderation mechanisms, as well as the importance of verifying voter identity in elections (12m50s).
• The structure of how people consume media through social media platforms and the mechanisms for censorship, filtering, and moderation should be made public (13m22s).
• The mechanisms for determining who gets to vote and how they get to vote should also be transparent and publicly known (13m32s).
• It is suggested that the rules of elections should be tightened, starting next year, by making Election Day a federal holiday and requiring people to have ID (14m4s).
• The Biden DOJ is suing the state of Virginia for cleaning the voter rolls of illegal immigrants, and a new law in California makes it illegal to ask for voter ID, which some see as undermining the integrity of elections (14m17s).
• Democrats are accused of undermining the integrity of elections, which may contribute to Republicans' distrust of the electoral process (14m42s).
• Cleaning up voter rolls and having a minimum standard for voter verification is seen as essential for ensuring the honesty of federal elections (14m50s).
• The federal government has a compelling interest in ensuring a minimum standard of honesty in federal elections, and setting a federal standard for elections could help to make them above reproach (15m21s).
• The Heritage Foundation has documented election fraud cases, but has not found evidence that changes election results, highlighting the need to make elections more transparent and trustworthy (15m49s).

Tesla's Robotaxi event and SpaceX's Starship catch (16m6s)

• Elon Musk had a significant week with Tesla unveiling two new concepts at its robot event, including a robo taxi and a robo bus, both of which look impressive (16m6s).
• Elon Musk successfully caught a 23-story rocket, the Starship, using a "Chopstick" catching device, demonstrating an incredible feat of human ingenuity (16m10s).
• The achievement is crucial as it allows for the reuse of rockets, significantly reducing the cost of launching material into space, with the goal of having them take off again after being refueled within an hour (17m17s).
• The cost of launching material into space has dramatically decreased over time, from $10,000 per kilogram in the 2010s to close to $1,000 per kilogram currently, thanks to SpaceX's efforts (18m42s).
• Elon Musk's objective is to further reduce the cost to $10 per kilogram, making it feasible to launch the estimated half a million tons of material needed to set up a colony on Mars (18m59s).
• The new Starship and Starship heavy booster have a payload capacity of 150-200 tons and hold 3,400 tons of propellant, with the cost of the propellant being relatively low at around $1 million (19m23s).
• By reusing the booster and Starship, amortizing the cost over their lifetime, and reducing the cost of the device, the cost per launch can be decreased, ultimately bringing down the cost per kilogram (19m50s).
• SpaceX's Starship and booster are estimated to cost around $90 million, but the company has a path to reducing the cost to $35 million, making it possible to launch 200 tons into space for $10 per kilogram, with the potential to get fuel into space and set up a base on Mars to make more fuel, as all the necessary materials are available on the planet (19m55s).
• The ability to reuse the heavy booster is critical to achieving this cost reduction, and Elon Musk has demonstrated the capability to catch, refuel, and relaunch the booster within an hour (20m28s).
• Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, is currently running at 4 million subscribers and has the potential to become a 100 million subscriber business, making it one of the largest subscription businesses in history, with the possibility of reaching 500 million subscribers (21m18s).
• The development of new, lower Earth orbit satellites that go even faster and have less latency is expected to be exciting, and the potential for satellite-to-phone connectivity could make Starlink even more widely available (21m8s).
• The Cyber cab, a robotaxi designed by Tesla, has been unveiled, featuring a hybrid design of the Model Y and Cybertruck, with some people expressing enthusiasm for the aesthetics, although it lacks a steering wheel and pedals (22m36s).
• Elon Musk and his team are incredibly talented and fearless, and their recent achievements are a testament to their capabilities, with the team being able to figure things out and attract top technical and operational talent (23m17s).
• Many people were trying to criticize Musk over the weekend, personalizing their anxiety through his company's successes, which doesn't make sense given the positive impact his companies are having, such as potentially saving 30,000 lives a year in the United States with autonomous driving (23m56s).
• The Tesla Optimus and bus are exciting products, with the bus having the potential to become like mobile homes or ADUs, and could be used in various scenarios such as providing temporary housing for people displaced by natural disasters (24m41s).
• The Tesla bus could also be used as a platform, similar to the Mercedes Sprinter vans, where people could buy an empty one and customize it, and even rent it out on platforms like Airbnb or Tesla BNB (25m10s).
• Amid Abar, who was recently promoted, is now in charge of all AI, manufacturing, and sales in North America at Tesla (26m15s).
• A person recently bought their first Tesla, a Model S Plaid, after test driving it for two weeks, and is impressed with the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature, using it every day (26m27s).
• The owner of a Tesla previously owned an Audi, specifically an RS7, but found the Tesla's speed, particularly in Plaid mode, to be insane and better than the RS7's speed (26m54s).
• The owner puts their Tesla in "chill mode" when driving with passengers, especially children, as the Plaid mode can cause nausea due to its extreme speed (27m10s).
• The discussion shifts to the topic of "Robo taxi star," which was not covered in the previous week's show, and was considered to be delayed by a day or two to accommodate it (27m30s).

Uber reportedly looking into acquiring Expedia (27m36s)

• Uber is reportedly exploring a bid to purchase Expedia, with Expedia having a $20 billion market cap and Uber having a $170 billion market cap, although the talks are said to be very preliminary and not serious (27m37s).
• Dara Khosrowshahi, the CEO of Uber, previously served as the CEO of Expedia from 2005 to 2017 and is still on the board, and the potential acquisition is seen as a trial balloon for creating a super app (28m7s).
• Expedia's products include Hotels.com, Orbitz, Trivago, and VRBO (Vacation Rental by Owner), which was like Airbnb before Airbnb existed (28m30s).
• Since Dara Khosrowshahi left Expedia, the company's revenue has grown modestly, but the stock has gone sideways (28m49s).
• The potential acquisition is seen as a bad capital allocation decision, with Expedia's business model being fragile due to its reliance on licensed data from third parties and its vulnerability to AI disruption (29m7s).
• The acquisition would likely require a control premium of 50%, making the total cost around $30 billion, which is seen as too high a price to pay for the risks involved (29m15s).
• Alternative acquisition targets could include companies like WeRide or Pony.ai, which are working on self-driving technology (31m25s).
• The rise of AI-powered checkout concepts, such as Perplexity, could disrupt the travel booking industry and make companies like Expedia obsolete (30m20s).
• Uber may consider buying Expedia, a travel company, as its stock price has been flat since Dara Khosrowshahi left in 2017, and the underlying financial performance could justify the acquisition, despite strategic risks on the horizon (31m33s).
• Dara Khosrowshahi, who ran Expedia for about a decade, knows the business well and could make changes to improve its performance, including cutting costs and cross-selling Expedia services to Uber's 150 million monthly active users (31m56s).
• Expedia has about 45-50 million customers a year, spends about $8 billion annually on sales and marketing, and has $720 million in G&A costs, with a run rate of about $3 billion in EBIT (32m35s).
• If Uber were to acquire Expedia, it could cut about half of the G&A costs and 30% of the sales and marketing dollars, potentially increasing Expedia's EBIT by 75-100% to $6 billion (33m6s).
• The acquisition could be valued at around $26 billion, with a 40-50% price premium to the last 90-day average of the stock price, and Uber would pay about $22 billion in enterprise value, which could be justified by the potential increase in EBIT (33m47s).
• Expedia has underutilized assets, such as VRBO, which could be improved with Dara Khosrowshahi's influence, and the company also offers high-margin products like vacation packages that could be optimized (34m23s).
• The acquisition could also enable Uber to cross-sell Expedia services to its users and create a more comprehensive travel platform (32m52s).
• Uber is considering buying Expedia, with a potential rationale being that Uber could cross-sell Expedia services to its 150 million active users, reducing Expedia's marketing costs and increasing revenue (35m29s).
• However, it is argued that Uber customers may not want to be cross-sold on booking hotels when using the app, as they primarily want to efficiently complete their transactions (36m10s).
• An MBA might view the potential acquisition as a way to cut Expedia's marketing budget by cross-selling through Uber, but a product manager would focus on what the user wants to do and avoid cluttering the app (36m33s).
• A past product initiative at Uber to capture users' attention during rides by adding ads was ultimately dialed back due to clutter and user dissatisfaction (36m52s).
• The potential acquisition is likened to a private equity play, where Dar would come in as a buyer, reduce costs, and potentially boost revenue, but the justification based on cross-selling is questionable (37m28s).
• The idea that Uber owns a user's attention during a ride is seen as flawed, as users are primarily focused on their destination and not interested in being shown entertainment products or other services (38m12s).
• Uber is considering expanding its services to include travel booking, potentially through a partnership or acquisition, such as buying Expedia, to increase revenue and provide a more comprehensive experience for users (38m24s).
• The idea is to offer a "super app" that allows users to book travel, hotels, and other services in addition to hailing a ride, but this may lead to clutter in the app and distract from its core function (38m44s).
• Uber already has a partnership with Hotels.com and a growing membership program, Uber One, which could be leveraged to offer more services (39m5s).
• The company's advertising business is also generating significant revenue, with over $1 billion in annual sales, and could be used to promote additional services (39m10s).
• The success of Uber Eats, which allows users to order food delivery through the app, suggests that related services can be effectively integrated (39m33s).
• The trend in the app ecosystem is shifting towards more specialized, narrow-feature apps, but there is a possibility that the pendulum could swing back towards "super apps" that offer a wide range of services (39m52s).
• Alternatively, a new substrate could emerge that puts itself between users and services, making them data-oriented and potentially rendering traditional UI real estate less valuable (40m17s).
• In this scenario, the value of a company would lie in its data assets and services, rather than its user interface or brand recognition (40m59s).
• Uber's business model is successful due to its ability to expand into adjacent markets, such as food delivery and package delivery, which increases engagement and attracts new customers with its membership program, having around 150 customers with their credit cards on file (41m58s).
• Booking a vacation or hotel could be a potential adjacency to Uber's existing services, but flights might not be a good fit due to existing apps and low commissions (42m9s).
• Hotels and vacation rentals, like VRBO, could be a good fit for Uber, with commissions ranging from 20-30%, similar to Uber's existing commissions (42m20s).
• Uber Eats is a separate app from Uber, as both services focus on immediate gratification, with wait time being a crucial factor, which is why Uber is beating Lyft (42m59s).
• The idea of cross-selling vacation or hotel bookings through Uber might not be effective, as it requires planning ahead, which is a different state of mind from the immediate gratification offered by Uber's existing services (43m32s).
• Rebranding Expedia or VRBO as "Uber Travel" or "Uber Hotel" could potentially add value to the brand and encourage users to download the app (43m57s).
• The value of acquiring Expedia could be quantified by the number of installs and the potential to offer hotel bookings and travel services within the Uber app (44m17s).
• Adding a "travel" or "hotels" tab to the Uber app could work well, allowing users to book hotels and rides in advance, and order food to their rooms, creating a seamless experience (44m56s).

Nuclear Vibe Shift? Big tech is looking toward nuclear solutions to power AI, Nuclear vs NIMBY debate (45m19s)

• Amazon has announced a $1 million investment in three nuclear power projects focused on small modular reactors (SMRs), working with Dominion Energy to develop a small modular nuclear reactor near an existing nuclear power plant in Virginia, with plans to invest $35 billion in Virginia-based data centers by 2040 and power them with SMRs (45m20s).
• Google is purchasing energy directly from Chyos Power, another company building SMRs, and Microsoft is reviving one of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plants, indicating a trend of big tech investing in nuclear power (45m53s).
• The trend is a shift from previous opposition to nuclear power, with big tech companies now investing in SMRs to power their data centers and AI operations (46m17s).
• However, the deals announced by these companies are conditional obligations that depend on various factors, including regulatory approvals and technical feasibility, and do not necessarily involve immediate financial transactions (46m45s).
• The deals are seen as important for signaling potential demand for SMRs, but do not address the need for risk capital to complete the projects or regulatory approvals (47m32s).
• The investment in SMRs is driven by the growing energy consumption per capita as GDP per capita increases, making nuclear power a potentially important source of energy (49m10s).
• In industrialized nations, there is no way to meet the energy demand without nuclear power, as there is not enough solar, geothermal, or wind buildout potential to cover the gap, and nuclear is likely the right long-term solution to provide a significant amount of base load energy (49m21s).
• China is building 300 GW of nuclear power with 300 facilities, while in the US, the fastest path to solving the energy gap problem might be Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) due to the regulatory structure and environmental laws (49m58s).
• SMRs produce tens of megawatts, and the US needs to grow its energy production by several terawatts over the next decade or two, making SMRs a potential solution (50m27s).
• The use of uranium to make electricity is necessary to meet the growing energy demand, and it's great to see SMRs getting attention, but it's uncertain if they will actually get turned on and how long it will take (50m56s).
• Building SMRs in the US and potentially in Europe could have geopolitical implications for the relationship with the Middle East, energy independence, and the AI race (51m26s).
• However, the deployment of SMRs might be blocked by local communities due to concerns about having a nuclear power plant in their backyard, regardless of the benefits for AI or global competitiveness (51m50s).
• The construction of SMRs will likely be met with resistance from communities, and it's probable that they will be built in poor or working-class communities, raising concerns about safety and potential accidents (52m33s).
• A discussion is held about the potential placement of a small nuclear reactor 200 miles outside of Austin, Texas, with some arguing that it's not a good idea due to safety concerns and others believing there's plenty of space in the United States for such reactors (53m31s).
• The safety of nuclear reactors is debated, with one person comparing the concerns to the initial fears about airplanes, suggesting that the benefits outweigh the risks (54m30s).
• The argument is made that increasing electricity production capacity is an economic necessity, especially with the growing demands of AI and industry, and that nuclear reactors may be the fastest way to achieve this (54m50s).
• The idea is proposed that the United States may end up being left behind in adopting new technologies, including nuclear reactors, gene editing, and cell therapies, due to concerns and regulations (55m31s).
• An alternative solution is suggested, focusing on improving material science and specialty chemicals capabilities, which could potentially provide a safer and more efficient way to increase electricity production (55m56s).
• The development of nuclear energy may not be the only solution to increasing energy density, as there may be intermediate steps that can achieve this goal without going nuclear, and these alternatives may be safer, easier to regulate, test, and underwrite, with government support (56m13s).
• Countries and businesses with lower costs of electricity and more abundant sources of electricity will have an economic advantage as the economy progresses towards a more digital and automated state, and those that are slower to adapt may suffer the consequences (56m31s).
• Providing economic incentives to people living in surrounding areas of nuclear power plants, such as tax breaks or subsidies, may be a possible solution to overcome the "not in my backyard" (NIMBY) phenomenon, but the effectiveness of such incentives is uncertain (56m55s).
• The fear of nuclear technology is deeply rooted in the evolution of the atomic age and the association with nuclear warheads, and this fear can be difficult to overcome with technical explanations or data (57m45s).
• The safety record of nuclear technology is a topic of debate, with some arguing that it has been discredited due to incidents like Three Mile Island and Fukushima, while others claim that these incidents are not representative of the technology as a whole (59m7s).
• The comparison between nuclear technology and commercial airlines is not entirely accurate, as commercial airlines have been refined over many decades and have a longer history of use, whereas nuclear technology is still a relatively new field (58m49s).
• There have been three major incidents involving nuclear power reactors: Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island, resulting in a total of 46 deaths at Chernobyl, one death at Fukushima, and zero deaths at Three Mile Island (1h0m15s).
• The fear of nuclear power has led to the shutdown of energy production and the fear-mongering of nuclear reactor technology, despite it being a potentially abundant source of energy (1h0m30s).
• The deaths from the incidents do not include second and third-order effects, such as radiation sickness and thyroid cancer, but these numbers are not as significant as they may seem (1h0m36s).
• The region around Fukushima is still uninhabited due to radioactive material that will remain radioactive for a long period, but new nuclear reactor technologies, such as Gen 3 and Gen 4 systems, are designed to prevent such incidents (1h0m56s).
• Gen 4 nuclear reactors, which are being rolled out now, do not have a meltdown possibility, and Gen 3 systems are abundantly safe, with China building hundreds of them (1h1m15s).
• The biggest stumbling block to the adoption of nuclear power is fear-mongering and the public's perception of it as too scary, rather than a lack of scientific understanding or engineering capability (1h1m53s).
• New nuclear reactor systems, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), are still in the theoretical stage and have not been tested or proven to work, making it difficult to determine their safety record (1h2m18s).

Lawfare from the California Coastal Commission (1h11m10s)

• If Trump loses the election, the next four years may see increased lawfare against Elon Musk, who is considered to be at the top of the list, and he may have no choice but to go all in to defend himself, with the current lawfare against him being ridiculous (1h11m10s).
• The California Coastal Commission has authority over Vandenberg and its operations, which seems wrong, as the commission was originally set up to regulate building along the beaches and give them back to the people and the public (1h11m59s).
• The commission's authority has grown since its establishment in 1976, and it may get peeled back after the Chevron ruling in the Supreme Court, but as of now, it has the ability to block launches out of Vandenberg, which it did, citing Elon Musk's political tweets as the reason (1h12m33s).
• The decision to block launches due to Elon Musk's tweets is considered abhorrent and ridiculous, and it's an example of what's wrong with the bureaucratic morass that institutions have grown into (1h13m0s).
• The Coastal Commission blocks everything, including structures on beachfront properties, and it's a values decision made by the state of California in 1976 to preserve the coastline, but its authority over Vandenberg and launches is part of administrative growth (1h13m40s).
• A single person at the Coastal Commission referenced Elon Musk's tweets in the decision to block launches, and the vote was 6-4, with the person taking credit for it and acknowledging the lawfare against SpaceX (1h14m20s).
• Elon Musk's lawsuit against the government is a 64 decision, and the Biden-Harris Administration could stop lawfare but chooses not to, as the tone was set from the top (1h15m8s).
• The upcoming presidential election is in two weeks and three days, on November 5th, and some people hope for a landslide victory to avoid a Supreme Court decision (1h16m29s).
• The only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump, and some people are rooting for him to achieve this (1h16m50s).
• The host has already received their ballot and is ready to vote, and they will reveal their vote on the election special (1h17m12s).
• There are 200 episode meetups happening, where fans get together to discuss their favorite topics, and the host thanks the fans for organizing these meetups (1h17m20s).
• The host is grateful for the work done on the events and is excited for the upcoming event, Saaks Live from Mar-a-Lago, and jokingly suggests getting a booth there for election night (1h15m51s).
• The text contains a few sentences that seem to be expressing a sense of tension or urgency, with the need to "release" or take action in some way (1h18m21s).
• The text also mentions going "all in" on something, but the context is unclear (1h18m37s).