Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Jayter's Ball, VC giveback, TikTok survey

Bestie intros! (0s)

• The podcast is the number one science, politics, technology, and business podcast in the world for five years running and is approaching its fourth anniversary and episode 200. (5s)
• A meetup for fans is being organized, and people can join by visiting allin.com/meetups, and the domain name "Allin" was negotiated at a good deal. (14s)
• The podcast's YouTube channel is close to reaching 1 million subscribers, and a celebration event is being planned. (25s)
• The podcast's website, allin.com, has been launched, and it was built by Podcast AI, a startup that was inspired by fake episodes of the podcast. (1m38s)
• The executive producer is promoting Founder University, a 12-week course on starting companies, which is now in its ninth cohort. (1m56s)
• Super Gut bars are being promoted, and the company's team has created an advertisement featuring the executive producer without their knowledge. (2m8s)
• Glue AI is hiring engineers, and the podcast's promotion of the job opening resulted in over 100 applications. (2m39s)
• A GoFundMe page has been set up for the executive producer to raise money for Xanax to deal with panic attacks. (3m8s)

The science behind Hurricanes Helene and Milton (3m18s)

• Hurricane Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida as a category 1 storm, after initially being predicted as a category 5 and then downgraded to a category 3, resulting in 6 million Floridians being ordered to evacuate across 15 counties (3m24s).
• The death toll from Hurricane Milton is currently at 4, but is expected to rise, and the storm ripped off the roof of the Tropic Canfield in Tampa (3m55s).
• Two weeks prior, Hurricane Helain swept through six Southern States, killing over 220 people and devastating Western North Carolina, with entire towns being wiped out (4m1s).
• The economic losses from these hurricanes are estimated to be staggering, with ACU weather estimating the total economic damage from Helain to be between $145 and $160 billion, and Moody's estimating the property damage alone to be as high as $26 billion (4m22s).
• The science behind these hurricanes is attributed to record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which drive moist air up, evaporate, and create a feedback loop that accelerates wind forces in storms (4m52s).
• 90% of the energy from the Sun is absorbed and stored in the oceans, contributing to the energy that fuels these massive hurricanes (5m41s).
• A recent science paper identified that removing sulfur dioxide from cargo ships is causing accelerated warming in the oceans, as the sulfur dioxide forms cloud formations that reflect sunlight, and its removal allows more sunlight to enter the ocean (5m58s).
• The removal of sulfur dioxide from cargo ships, which started in 2020-2021, is estimated to double the rate of warming of the oceans in the 2020s and beyond (6m42s).
• This creates a trade-off between reducing air pollution from sulfur dioxide emissions and increasing ocean warming (7m5s).
• Sulfur dioxide is a pollutant that is emitted by cargo ships and was previously used in their fuel, but has been phased out in recent years due to its contribution to acid rain (7m15s).
• Cargo vessels moving across the ocean create cloud cover by emitting sulfur dioxide, which triggers cloud formation and reduces warming in the ocean by reflecting sunlight, but this cloud cover may be accelerating the warming of the oceans, driving extreme storm and hurricane events (7m27s).
• Improving the quality of fuel sources used in shipping may not necessarily mean a return to normal, as the artificial cooling effect caused by bad fuel sources has been dampening the warming effect, and removing this effect could accelerate heat energy in the oceans (8m9s).
• The pollution from bad fuel sources was creating a blocker for sunlight, reducing the amount of heat energy that was getting into the oceans, but now that this effect is being removed, the oceans are getting much warmer (9m21s).
• The takeaway from this is that the environment is a multifaceted system, and changes can have unintended consequences, so it's essential to be careful with environmental actions (9m45s).
• A category 5 hurricane that hit land may have been downgraded to a category 3 due to the natural process of the storm cycle breaking down when it hits land, as it no longer has the hot ocean pumping energy back into the storm (10m1s).
• The real estate value on the Florida coastline is significant, and the impact of hurricanes on this area can be substantial (9m51s).
• Hurricane Helen was initially a category 4 hurricane but was downgraded to a category 3 when it hit Tampa, and its impact was affected by the mountains in Western North Carolina (10m41s).
• A hurricane's intense rainfall can be caused by the storm running into a cold region, resulting in the sudden precipitation of warm moisture, as seen in Western North Carolina where some areas received up to 30 inches of rainfall in a couple of hours (11m5s).
• Geoengineering conspiracy theories, including the idea that Democrats were behind the storm, are unfounded and disinformation should be stopped (11m51s).
• Experiments have been conducted to control or alter the weather, such as seeding clouds to create more rain, which has been done in the Middle East and may have contributed to the Dubai floods (12m12s).
• Lasers have also been used in experiments to manipulate hurricanes and storms, but these experiments are not evidence of a conspiracy to control the weather (12m35s).
• Putting particulates in clouds to accelerate precipitation is a real technique that has been used for over a hundred years, but it cannot create a hurricane or control its wind speed (13m0s).
• Hurricanes are powerful natural phenomena that arise from the energy of hot oceans, and no human-created energy system can form a hurricane (13m30s).
• The frequency of hurricanes may increase if ocean temperatures remain elevated, which can be caused by various factors including global warming and the removal of sulfur dioxide (13m47s).
• Warmer oceans can lead to more frequent and intense storm events, such as one in 500-year storms happening every couple of years, and one in 100-year events happening every 2 to 3 years in the United States (14m12s).
• Experiments have been conducted to modify hurricanes by introducing chemicals that would freeze and dull them, effectively breaking them apart (14m43s).
• The goal of these experiments is to alter the weather and mitigate the impact of hurricanes (14m48s).
• The concept of altering hurricanes has been explored, but it is not attributed to specific individuals such as Putin or Pelosi (14m51s).

The economics of intensifying natural disasters (14m59s)

• The Florida coastline has approximately $500 billion to $1 trillion in real estate value, and due to the increasing frequency of hurricanes, the average homeowner's insurance costs are becoming unsustainable, with what used to be a one in 100-year event now potentially occurring every 20 years (14m59s).
• The state of Florida has a reinsurance provider, the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which issues debt to meet its coverage demands and incentivizes insurance companies to underwrite homeowners in the state (15m24s).
• The cycle of insurance involves homeowners getting a mortgage, being required to get insurance, and then insurance companies reinsuring the risk, but due to the increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes, the models are showing that the risk is much higher than previously thought (15m41s).
• As a result, the state has had to step in and effectively subsidize the insurance, but the state reinsurance vehicle only has a statutory liability maximum of $7 billion in a single hurricane season, which is likely to be exceeded by the losses from Hurricane Milton (16m38s).
• The losses from Hurricane Milton are estimated to be around $40-50 billion, which exceeds the state's reinsurance capacity, effectively making the state's reinsurance fund bankrupt (16m55s).
• The question now is whether the federal government will have to step in and support the price of homes, as setting a precedent for bailing out Florida could lead to demands for bailouts in other states affected by natural disasters (17m9s).
• If the federal government does not step in, it could lead to a significant decline in home values, with the total value of all mortgages in homeowner mortgages in Florida being $454 billion, and most homeowners having a significant portion of their net worth tied up in their homes (17m47s).
• A decline in home values could lead to a significant social problem, with many people seeing their personal net worth wiped out or cut in half, as they have put their entire net worth into their homes (18m11s).
• The increasing frequency of hurricanes is making it challenging for homeowners to afford insurance, with some areas potentially becoming economically unviable due to the high cost of insurance premiums, which could reach 5% of the home's value annually (18m22s).
• The entire Florida coastline may not be economically viable due to the rising costs of insurance, but it's still possible to build resilient homes using new technologies and materials, such as building on stilts with concrete and saltwater-resistant materials (18m40s).
• The challenge of hurricane damage is not limited to a specific area, as the range of events is widespread, and the events are becoming more significant due to warm ocean temperatures (19m1s).
• Some homeowners in Miami are building high-rises with the first couple of floors resistant to flooding, and homes on stilts with resistant materials, which could be a counter to the increasing damage from hurricanes (19m23s).
• The need for climate resilience investment may create opportunities to upgrade homes to resistant ones using new technologies (19m34s).
• The potential for a federal bailout in Florida is being discussed, as the state has a significant number of Electoral College votes, and politicians may use bailouts as a way to gain votes (19m46s).
• A federal bailout may be necessary to cover the gap between the $17 billion reinsurance fund and the estimated $50 billion in damage, as insurance companies may not be able to cover the costs, leading to increased premiums (20m14s).
• Some big insurance companies have already left California due to the high risk of damage, and the remaining companies may price gouge or become insolvent reinsurers (20m30s).
• Homeowners in low-risk areas are still being affected by the increasing cost of insurance, with some being required to undergo risk assessments and make changes to their homes, such as replacing wood shake roofs with more fire-resistant materials (20m54s).
• The insurance industry is facing challenges due to increased climate risks, with insurers leaving the market or increasing premiums, making it unaffordable for many consumers (21m45s).
• Cities like Phoenix, Arizona, are experiencing more frequent extreme temperatures, with the average number of days above 110°F increasing from 5 in the early 1900s to 70 so far in 2024 (21m55s).
• This trend is affecting not only Phoenix but also other areas, such as California, which is experiencing increased wildfire risks (22m23s).
• The cost of electricity is also rising, with some households paying thousands of dollars a year, even with solar panels and storage, due to the grid charging exorbitant amounts (22m53s).
• FEMA's National Flood Insurance Plan (NFIP) has historically been 50% cheaper than private flood insurance, but a new risk assessment system has caused rates to increase, leading to a decrease in policies (23m29s).
• The decrease in flood insurance policies is concerning, given the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters (23m54s).
• There may be opportunities for new business models, such as self-insurance platforms or mutuals, where members share the risk and ownership, but these models require broad geographic coverage to be effective (24m41s).
• Traditional insurance companies have had to re-write their rates due to the increasing frequency of disasters, leading to higher premiums (25m15s).
• The real estate markets in certain areas, such as West Palm Beach and Malibu, are considered to be massively overpriced due to climate damage and long-term financial instability of insurers and reinsurers (25m59s).
• The high prices in these areas are viewed as a calamity waiting to happen, with extreme weather conditions and soil erosion being major concerns (26m16s).
• Rebuilding homes in these areas in a more foolproof way may not be possible due to the high cost and the fact that many people cannot afford it, and some may not have adequate coverage (26m28s).
• There is a trend of people, even those with means, choosing to rent their homes instead of buying, which is becoming more common among the top half of homeowners or potential homeowners (26m51s).
• This trend is driven by the fact that the prices of high-end homes are making it more sense to keep money in the market or other places and rent instead of buying (27m38s).
• The real estate market in Florida, particularly in coastal areas, is considered to be challenging due to the high exposure to loss and the need for repricing without causing massive economic and social consequences (28m9s).
• The math on a trillion dollars of real estate value with half a trillion of mortgages in Florida is difficult to do, especially with the increasing frequency of natural disasters (27m59s).
• Selling a property in Miami is considered a good move due to the potential risks and challenges associated with the real estate market in the area (28m27s).

AlphaFold creators win Nobel Prize in Chemistry (29m3s)

• Demis Hassabis and John Jumper, two members of Google's DeepMind AI research team, have won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, an achievement that was considered likely after they won the Breakthrough Prize (29m3s).
• The Breakthrough Prize is seen as a more relevant and positive directional indicator to breakthrough science, similar to how winning Sundance can lead to winning an Oscar (30m11s).
• AlphaFold, a project by DeepMind, has solved the long-standing challenge in biochemistry of understanding or predicting the three-dimensional structure of proteins (30m45s).
• Proteins are produced by long chains of amino acids that collapse into a specific three-dimensional structure, which is crucial for understanding their function (30m57s).
• The ability to predict the 3D structure of proteins from their amino acid sequence can unlock the creation of biomolecules that can bind cancer, break apart pollutants, and create new molecules (32m3s).
• The Stanford Folding@home distributed computing project in the early 2000s used people's computers to model protein folding, demonstrating the long-standing interest in solving this problem (31m36s).
• The solution to protein folding can lead to breakthroughs in biochemistry, such as creating micro motors from proteins, as demonstrated by David Baker at the University of Washington (32m31s).
• A project at DeepMind inside Google solved the protein folding problem, leading to the development of AlphaFold 3, a tool used to predict molecules that can perform specific functions for a target indication, and the launch of a drug discovery company called Isomorphic Labs (32m46s).
• Dozens of companies have been started since DeepMind's publication, with several billion dollars of capital invested in companies creating new drugs and industrial biotech applications using protein modeling capabilities (33m10s).
• The breakthrough has transformed the industry, and it is expected to have a significant impact on the world in a few years (33m24s).
• The use of plus-size proteins, also referred to as "chunky" proteins, is an important aspect of this technology (33m34s).
• The convergence of hard sciences and computer science is a significant trend, with researchers like David Baker and Jeffrey Hinton making important contributions to the field (34m18s).
• The use of computers to improve our understanding of the natural sciences is a promising area of research, and the work of Demis, John, and David in the life sciences is particularly notable (35m1s).
• Jeffrey Hinton's work on training deep neural networks 20-40 years ago is also recognized as a significant achievement (35m8s).

The Jayter's Ball (35m17s)

• Benny Off has nominated himself for excellence in CRM management, prompting jokes and teasing about his philanthropic efforts and sense of humor (35m17s).
• Benny Off is the CEO of a $300 billion market cap company and has expressed interest in returning to the podcast to discuss why AI will not disrupt SAS, but his previous chance to do so has passed (36m4s).
• The idea of a "Jayter's Ball" or "Jers" convention, a conference for people who dislike Jason Calacanis, is discussed, with suggestions that it could be a successful event with a passionate audience (37m9s).
• The potential lineup for the convention could include keynote speakers such as Palmer Luckey and David Sachs, and could rival the All In Summit in terms of fan passion (37m43s).
• Jason Calacanis claims to be joking and not trying to make enemies, but rather to entertain and educate, and expresses his affection for Benny Off despite their jokes at each other's expense (37m27s).
• The idea of a convention for Jason Calacanis's haters is seen as a potential business opportunity, with a ready-made and passionate demographic (38m30s).
• Jason Calacanis mentions that he was previously critical of Mark Zuckerberg, but does not elaborate on the details (38m22s).

Google antitrust update: DOJ is going for a breakup (38m53s)

• The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is considering a breakup of Google due to antitrust concerns, as the company has been found liable for maintaining a monopoly in search and digital ads (38m54s).
• The DOJ is working on a remedy and is considering asking a federal judge to force Google to sell off parts of its business, specifically to prevent the company from using products like Chrome, Google Play, and Android to advantage Google search (39m16s).
• Options being considered by the DOJ include terminating Google's exclusive agreements with hardware companies, separating Chrome and Android, prohibiting certain kinds of data tracking, and other behavioral and structural changes for the company (39m43s).
• The discussion highlights the potential benefits of large companies investing in research and development (R&D), citing examples such as Bell Labs and Google's investments in DeepMind and self-driving technology (40m27s).
• It is argued that penalizing big companies for their size may not be the best approach, and instead, antitrust actions and behaviors should be identified and remedied (42m23s).
• The importance of R&D investments by large companies is emphasized, as they can drive innovation and investment in areas like cloud technology, electric vehicles, and more (42m36s).
• The tech industry's future depends on leadership, and startups may not be able to build significant companies like Amazon or DeepMind without substantial funding, which may not be available from venture capitalists (42m42s).
• In five years, there may be a forced remedy to address the issues with large tech companies, rather than the industry self-regulating, and this could involve breaking up companies like Google (43m7s).
• The Technology Innovation cycle has become too elongated, allowing companies to become too profitable and making them a target for politicians, which could lead to forced remedies (43m35s).
• The government's actions on monopolies often coincide with the emergence of viable competitors, as seen with Microsoft and now Google, which is facing a threat from Open AI (44m50s).
• Breaking up Google into separate companies, such as for search, cloud, and DeepMind, might be beneficial for the company and its shareholders (45m10s).
• Google needs to improve its app development skills, particularly for its AI-powered chatbot Gemini, to compete with Open AI's chat GPT, and should consider creating a dedicated app for Gemini (45m34s).
• The Department of Justice's potential actions against Google, including a possible breakup, may also target other companies like Meta, as hinted at in a Wall Street Journal article (46m15s).
• Google and Meta may face disassembly due to antitrust concerns, with Google being the first target, and it is advised that they should aggressively build up their assets and user base in preparation for potential breakup, including developing a chat GPT alternative and acquiring YouTube shares, which could bring in $500 billion in cash (46m33s).
• The Department of Justice (DOJ) may try to break up Google due to its dominance in the advertising market, making it difficult for smaller companies to compete, and a more fragmented market could make it easier for these companies to have a business (49m9s).
• Smaller companies have struggled to build their own advertising tools due to the high quality of tools offered by larger companies, leading to a recursive negative loop where they are unable to compete, which may lead the DOJ to take action (49m51s).
• The current situation is a great setup for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPOs), and the antitrust case against Google is a multi-administration case that has been ongoing since the Trump administration (50m2s).
• The political environment for M&A next year will depend on which administration is in power, with the outcome uncertain (50m22s).
• Prominent Democrats in tech, such as Mark Hubin and Reed Hoffman, believe that if Kamala Harris were President, she would be more hospitable and friendly towards mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and they have explicitly stated that they want Lina Khan fired (50m29s).
• In response, AOC has stated that there will be a "throwdown" if that happens, suggesting that there may not be a substantial difference in regulatory permissiveness towards M&A under a Democratic administration (50m43s).
• It is believed that if Trump were in office next year, there would be an opening up of M&A, as Republicans have their own issues with big tech, but these issues tend to revolve around censorship and bias rather than bigness per se (51m1s).
• There is a huge backlog of M&A deals and IPOs, and it is expected that there will be a significant increase in these deals if Trump were in office (51m30s).
• Reed Hoffman and Peter Thiel were mentioned as being part of an "Illuminati meeting" where they voted to replace Lina Khan, but this was likely a joke (51m41s).
• The "Jadter's Ball" is a real event, and it appears to be a parody of the "Haters Ball" from the Chappelle Show, with attendees including Zuck, Palmer Luckey, and others (52m37s).
• The event is being hosted and headlined by prominent figures in the tech industry, with the host being referred to as the "MC" (52m47s).
• CRV is giving back, but the details of this are not specified (53m31s).

VC giveback: CRV will return ~$275M of a $500M fund to LPs (53m32s)

• CRV is giving back about half of its $275 million fund to investors due to worsened market conditions for late-stage investments, high valuations, and a lack of exit options, as reported by the New York Times, with the information coming from an exclusive given by the four partners at CRV (53m56s).
• This decision is not unprecedented, as Founders Fund previously cut the size of its eighth fund in half from $1.8 billion to $900 million, although they did not give the capital back to investors, instead putting the extra $900 million into its ninth fund (54m38s).
• Thomas Lefort at Kotu stated that the NASDAQ creates about $800 billion of Enterprise Value a year, and for private markets to be a viable alternative, they need to exceed this amount, which seems challenging (55m19s).
• Venture capital needs to go through a phase of rationalization, with limited partners (LPs) having made mistakes by spreading too much money across too many general partners, and it would be better to concentrate capital into fewer, more promising investments (55m54s).
• LPs would be better off giving more money to a smaller number of high-quality general partners, rather than spreading it too thin, as this can lead to overpaying, mispricing, and lower returns (56m25s).
• The current state of the venture capital market is challenging, with a tough game getting even harder, and it's better to have a smaller pool of capital, smaller teams, and stronger LP relationships (56m55s).
• Venture firms are not doing 50 fund investments as it makes the entire industry lag public liquid alternatives, and it's not good to spread capital too thin, with the trend possibly being a reaction to changing market conditions and valuations becoming more reasonable (57m13s).
• For a venture firm to return capital, they need at least one or two big winners, requiring a 10x or 20x return, and they need to enter at a reasonable price with enough opportunity relative to the capital trying to invest (57m45s).
• In a market with excess venture capital, premium valuations, and no clear exit path, it makes sense to take less capital and make fewer investments, which is what some firms have realized, avoiding highly valued and inflated opportunities (58m12s).
• This is an interesting moment to see who are the right folks in terms of thinking long-term in Silicon Valley, with Founders Fund being a notable example of a firm with an exceptional track record and being smart about market conditions (59m3s).
• Limited partners (LPs) are also trying to find more concentrated capital, putting more capital to work in fewer managers, leading to a "wheat from the chaff" moment in Silicon Valley venture (59m15s).
• The current situation is a correction from the previous trend of everyone starting a venture fund, with the froth being cleared out, and the math behind venture funds requires a 30x return to justify the investment (59m39s).
• The difference between a growth fund and an opportunities fund is significant, with an opportunities fund existing to back up winners and deploy more capital into those companies, whereas a growth fund underwrites brand new companies from scratch (1h0m35s).
• Typically, an opportunities fund is limited to companies that an investor is already involved with through their Venture fund, which makes a big difference in the amount of capital needed to back up winners (1h0m59s).
• A growth fund can be beneficial in the current ecosystem, as crossover capital has left and large investors like hedge funds are no longer investing billions of dollars, making it a good time to have a growth fund (1h1m26s).
• Large investors like Tiger and SoftBank are still present, but their funds have been "right-sized" from $10 billion to $2 billion, and they are no longer making violent deals (1h1m50s).
• The size of a Venture fund determines the size of the winner needed to make a payoff, and because of the power law, a fund's performance is often determined by its best outcome (1h2m10s).
• To deliver a 3X return on a $1 billion Venture fund, a $30 billion winner is needed, which is a rare outcome, and there are only a few companies that have achieved this, such as Uber, Robinhood, and Coinbase (1h2m41s).
• Smaller Venture funds tend to perform better, as they don't need to rely on massive companies to make a payoff, and data from limited partners (LPS) supports this (1h3m15s).
• A billion-dollar Venture fund requires a decacorn outcome to be successful, and a $30 billion plus outcome is even more difficult to achieve, making it challenging to manage a large Venture fund (1h3m40s).

New TikTok survey shows increased usage as a news source (1h3m44s)

• A recent Pew study found that 4 in 10 US adults aged 18-29 regularly get their news from TikTok, with 52% of users saying they get their news from the platform, a significant increase from 22% in the past (1h3m45s).
• The study also found that TikTok is now a major news platform, with 52% of users getting their news from the platform, surpassing other social media platforms such as Facebook (48%), Reddit (33%), YouTube (37%), and Instagram (40%) (1h4m24s).
• The study's findings have raised concerns about national security, as the algorithm is a "black box" and could be tweaked to change sentiment, particularly among young users who are impressionable and big users of the platform (1h5m17s).
• However, the study also found that 95% of adults who use TikTok say they use it because it's entertaining, and only 10% of accounts followed by US adults post content related to political or social issues (1h5m40s).
• The majority of accounts followed by US adults on TikTok (90%) do not post content related to political or social issues, but rather focus on entertainment, such as dance videos or wrestling highlights (1h5m59s).
• The discussion also touched on the topic of wrestling, with the participants sharing their favorite wrestlers, including Hulk Hogan, the Undertaker, Stone Cold Steve Austin, and the Ultimate Warrior (1h6m33s).
• Andy Kaufman was a fan of professional wrestling and had a notable appearance in the 1970s or late 1980s, where he trolled the audience in Memphis by introducing them to soap and a washcloth, and was later smacked by Jerry Lawler on the David Letterman show (1h7m40s).
• In Memphis, there were no professional sports teams, and wrestling was a major form of entertainment, with Jerry Lawler being extremely popular and potentially electable as mayor (1h8m35s).
• The Mouth of the South, Jimmy Hart, was a notable heel manager in the WWF (now WWE) before it took over the wrestling scene (1h9m3s).
• A TikTok survey gathered data showing that the app is mostly used for entertainment, with users watching dance videos, wrestling clips, and style influencers, contradicting the idea that it's a propaganda tool (1h9m37s).
• The likelihood of TikTok being hacked to allow passive listening even when the app is not in use is considered very low, around 5%, due to Apple's audit system and the lack of evidence (1h10m10s).
• WhatsApp has been known to passively listen, and it's possible that the CCP is using it to track journalists, but there's no evidence of TikTok being used for manipulation (1h10m38s).
• Over 50% of young people are getting their news from TikTok, although there's no evidence that it's being used to manipulate people, and it's likely that more young people get their news from podcasts that are clipped and shared on the platform (1h11m1s).
• There is a growing concern about the spread of misinformation and chaos through social media platforms, with some individuals and groups sponsoring long-tail content to promote specific perspectives (1h11m13s).
• An article in the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia and Iran were paying low-level street criminals to create chaos, which could be extrapolated to mean that sponsoring influencers to create content is a more effective way to sew chaos (1h11m26s).
• This strategy could involve algorithmically amplifying certain content over others to create issues, although it may not be the biggest issue in the world and may not swing an election (1h12m27s).
• The Southern District of New York targeted Russia Today for giving $10 million to four podcasters to promote pro-Russian positions, with each podcaster receiving $100,000 per episode (1h12m41s).
• However, some argue that this strategy may not be effective due to the vast amount of content already available, making it difficult to engineer a disinformation campaign that would have a significant impact (1h13m9s).
• The goal of such a strategy may not be to win a specific argument, but to create mistrust in the entire news ecosystem and information system, leading people to give up trying to figure out what the truth is (1h13m50s).
• The Russians' strategy of paying off podcasters may be seen as a smart move, as it allows them to support existing influencers and amplify their content, rather than trying to create new content from scratch (1h14m31s).
• However, others argue that this strategy is not effective, as it involves paying successful podcasters to release content through a less watched channel, which may not have a significant impact (1h14m42s).
• Freeberg is live streaming 24/7, attempting to win people over with his puppy, and is considered ridiculous by some (1h14m56s).
• A reference is made to Saak, who has been given information about Russia Today and BGE, and is now being offered information about a Tomahawk (1h15m18s).
• An update on the 2024 election is provided, focusing on the betting markets (1h15m25s).

Election update: Are polling problems causing a strategy shift for Kamala Harris? (1h15m26s)

• Polling and betting markets indicate a tight presidential race, with some sources favoring Trump and others favoring Kamala Harris, with Trump leading in betting markets such as Poly Market and 5248, while polls like New York Times Siena and Reuters Ipsos show Harris with a slight lead (1h15m28s).
• Nate Silver's algorithm has Harris with a two-point lead, while Real Clear Politics has Trump with a slight lead in the Electoral College (1h15m51s).
• Pollsters like Tony Fabrizio and Real Clear Politics show Trump winning the Electoral College, with Trump leading in almost every swing state, including Michigan (1h16m42s).
• Mark Halperin, a pundit, has been accurate in his predictions and is now saying that both Republican and Democrat insiders are showing Trump ahead in every swing state (1h17m19s).
• Harris's internals are showing her in trouble, prompting her to do more interviews, but her performance in interviews may be causing her to lose votes (1h17m59s).
• The dynamic between Harris's performance in interviews and her polling numbers may be creating a "Doom Loop" where she falls further behind in the polls the more she does interviews (1h18m21s).
• Trump's strategy as a "generational retail politician" is seen as being stuck, with his approach galvanizing his base but turning off undecided voters (1h18m43s).
• Harris's talking points are also seen as being ineffective in swaying undecided voters, with her losing support in the middle (1h19m15s).
• The upcoming US presidential election is discussed, with a focus on the current polls and the Electoral College, which is seen as the key factor in determining the outcome (1h19m20s).
• The Trump case in the Supreme Court is mentioned, and it's noted that if the case is overturned before the election, it could provide significant momentum for Trump (1h19m43s).
• The possibility of unexpected events, referred to as "spanners in the works," is raised, citing the previous two elections as examples of surprise twists (1h20m0s).
• The disparity between the betting markets and the polls is mentioned as a topic for discussion, with the option to explore the overall state of the election (1h20m36s).
• The performance of a presidential candidate in recent interviews is criticized, with the candidate's answers being described as "the opposite of crisp" and "long-winded" (1h21m3s).
• The candidate's decision to only appear on friendly shows is questioned, with suggestions that they should participate in more challenging interviews, such as the Joe Rogan podcast (1h21m31s).
• The idea of the candidate appearing on the Allin podcast is proposed, with the assurance that the conversation would be respectful (1h21m45s).
• The host's past interviews with presidential candidates are referenced, with the claim that they have always been respectful and conversational (1h22m10s).
• David Sachs is mentioned, and engineers are encouraged to visit supergut.glue.ai, while those who like potatoes are invited to visit aal.com to pre-order a subscription (1h22m53s).
• The hosts express their appreciation for their fans and mention that they have open-sourced something, which has been well-received (1h23m22s).
• The conversation shifts to a lighthearted and humorous tone, with a mention of a dog and a joke about the hosts getting a room together to release built-up tension (1h23m39s).
• The hosts discuss the idea of creating merchandise, or "merch," but do not elaborate on the details (1h24m3s).