Our 1939 moment: Will we fight for the free world again? | Jim Sciutto | TEDxMidAtlantic

A 1939 Moment

• The world is facing a choice between freedom and tyranny, similar to the choice faced 80 years ago during World War II, and it's up to individuals to decide what kind of world they want to live in and what rules they want that world to follow (33s).
• The D-Day Landings, where soldiers fought against Nazi Germany, is an example of a choice between freedom and tyranny, and the world still celebrates and is grateful for the choice made by those soldiers (51s).
• The current choice became clear in February 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, and the world witnessed the devastating effects of war, including the loss of many lives (1m36s).
• Before the invasion, the author received a call from a member of Congress, warning him about the impending attack and asking if he was ready, and the author had to check with his boss to ensure that CNN's security was in place (2m19s).
• The author also received a call from a military source, who reminded him that the Russians may not have good aim and that the hotel where the author was staying, the Intercontinental Hotel, was located between the Ukrainian foreign Ministry and the headquarters of the National Police (3m9s).
• Despite the risks, the author and his colleagues stayed in Ukraine to cover the important story, and the author took a video from the roof of the hotel, capturing the air raid sirens during one of the first strikes at the start of the invasion (4m2s).
• A news video in black and white resembled a news reel from 1939, evoking a sense of living through a moment thought to be left behind, with a leader in Europe attempting to redraw the maps of Europe by force (4m19s).
• This moment is referred to as a "1939 moment" and also a "1939 Choice," where the decision must be made whether to stand up for what is believed in or let the aggression happen due to the high costs of standing up to it (4m33s).
• The situation was not entirely a surprise, as there had been a deterioration in the relationship between Russia and the West, with Russia's increasing aggression in Europe, which had been referred to as the "shadow War" (5m11s).
• The "shadow War" involved actions such as "Little Green Men" popping up in Ukraine, cyber attacks, and other tactics below the threshold of open conflict (5m19s).
• The war became more overt with the start of bombings, marking a clean break with the period of relative peace enjoyed since the end of the last Cold War (5m36s).

The Shadow War

• The situation in Ukraine had been escalating since 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, slicing off a piece of eastern Ukraine and Crimea (5m56s).
• In 2014, Russia also sent "Storm Troopers" to eastern Ukraine, burning ballots that had already been filled out in an election where pro-western candidates had been chosen (6m16s).
• Russia's response to peaceful demonstrations in the Maidan in 2014 was to put snipers on rooftops and pick off demonstrators one by one (6m38s).
• The situation can be traced back even further to 2006, when Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian national, was poisoned with polonium by Putin for standing up to him and writing about the tyranny of Putin (6m55s).
• The poisoning of Litvinenko was a warning sign of the lengths to which Russia was willing to go to impose its will, and it was not an isolated incident, as there were other warning signs even earlier, such as in 2004 when Victor Yushchenko challenged Russia (8m6s).
• Russia's response to a pro-Russian candidate in Ukraine was to poison him with dioxin, but he survived, and this incident is an example of a leader willing to redraw the maps of Europe by force and poison, kill, or imprison anyone who stood in his way, similar to the case of Alex Nali (8m15s).

A New Cold War

• The current cold war is different from the last one, as it involves not only one superpower rival, Russia, but also another, China, and their "No Limits" partnership has been demonstrated through China's support for Russia in Ukraine (8m44s).
• The next target and test of this choice is in Taiwan, which is preparing for a potential Chinese invasion, taking the threat very seriously, with the Navy and Air Force on high alert (9m19s).
• China is watching Russia's experience in Ukraine to see what it could get away with in Asia, and the tests are all around, with warning signs such as China's transformation of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea into "unsinkable aircraft carriers" (10m27s).
• The US and its rivals are facing new fronts in this confrontation, including the introduction of Russia's new, quieter, and more threatening submarines, which are harder to track (11m3s).
• The number of cyber attacks handled by the NSA operations center from Russia and China is in the thousands per day, indicating a hot cyber front in this war (11m53s).
• Space is also a front in this war, with China and Russia testing weapons that can ram into US satellites and lasers that can blind them, which not only affects the military but also civilians who depend on satellites for various purposes (12m8s).
• The US Space Force has a unit called the Masters of Space, which used to be called Masters of the Air and provided air cover for the D-Day Landings, and now they have a new mission of flying air cover for US interests in space, including the space station, and monitoring Chinese and Russian satellites (12m25s).
• The Masters of Space have an operation center where they watch Chinese and Russian satellites, and China has a "kidnapper satellite" with a grappling arm that can pluck critical satellites out of orbit in the event of conflict (12m46s).
• The movie Moonraker predicted a scenario where satellites are stolen from space, and China's kidnapper satellite has the capability to do so (13m4s).
• Ukraine has shown that the world is already in the age of drone warfare, with Ukrainian drones taking out Russian drones on the battlefield (13m23s).
• There is a growing nuclear front, with China building new silos in Shin Jang and rapidly increasing its nuclear warheads, while Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world, and North Korea and Iran are also nuclear threats (13m43s).
• The number of treaties governing nuclear threats is decreasing, with fewer treaties with Russia, no nuclear treaties with China, North Korea, or Iran, making the situation more perilous (14m10s).
• CIA Director Bill Burns described the situation as "playing without a net," with no safety mechanism to prevent conflicts from escalating into something more dangerous (14m25s).

Lessons from History

• History can provide guidance on how to navigate this uncharted territory, and Winston Churchill's quote about appeasers feeding a crocodile hoping it will eat them last is still relevant today (15m2s).
• The leader of Estonia, a NATO ally on Russia's border, often quotes Churchill to emphasize that appeasement will not work and that giving in to aggressive powers will only embolden them (15m18s).
• The first lesson from history is to reject the rules of appeasement that did not work in 1939 and will not work today, and to stand up for democracy, freedom, and allies (15m49s).
• The Taiwanese want to remain independent from China under the CCP, which is both a values argument and an interest argument, as any conflict would affect the US at home due to the nature of cyber and space weapons (16m14s).
• A potential conflict would also take away benefits the US has grown accustomed to, such as free trade, free travel, and the rule of law, making it a values argument and a self-interested one (16m20s).
• The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, where Russia put nuclear missiles in Cuba, brought the US and Russia close to nuclear conflict, and John F. Kennedy made sure his cabinet read "The Guns of August" to understand the descent into World War I (16m45s).
• Kennedy wanted to stand up but avoid leading the nation into war, which is why today there is a need to reset the net through negotiations, treaties, clear communication, and standing up for what one believes in (17m21s).

Preparing for Conflict

• Many treaties relied on after the Cuban Missile Crisis are no longer in place, and those closest to the battle believe the situation is existential, not an intellectual exercise (17m50s).
• NATO forces in the Baltic Sea are preparing for a potential Russian attack, and during a drill, Russian jets came close to the convoy, turning the drill into an actual preparation alert (18m6s).
• Inspiring moments include people in Ukraine volunteering to defend their country, and Americans who have gone to fight, showing that people are willing to stand up for what they believe in (18m47s).
• A flag from Ukrainian commanders on the front lines, signed and thanking the US for its support, symbolizes the fight for freedom and the defense of one's country (19m11s).
• Flags can be divisive, but they can also show what one stands for and what they are willing to fight for, and it is essential to remember that adversaries have weaknesses and that the cause of freedom is stronger by nature (19m41s).
• The question of what kind of world one wants to live in is posed, specifically in relation to the future of one's children and grandchildren (20m2s).
• The desire for a free world is expressed as the preferred choice for future generations (20m10s).