Our hottest and coldest 2025 takes | The Vergecast

Introduction and 2025 Predictions

• The challenge of finding a suitable $20 gift for people you don't know well, such as those in secret Santa parties or colleagues at work, is discussed, with the difficulty lying in finding something personal yet not too expensive (22s).
• The idea of giving and receiving Starbucks gift cards as a universally useful and liked gift is mentioned, but the desire to find alternative gift options is expressed (47s).
• The current episode is the first in a two-part series about 2025, with the hosts looking forward to the upcoming year in tech, including a new Administration, the AI hype cycle, and questions about antitrust and big Tech (1m22s).
• The hosts, David Pierce, Nei Patel, and Joanna Stern, will be discussing their predictions for 2025, with each person bringing three predictions ranked in order of "spiciness" (2m20s).
• The episode is sponsored by postar, an electric performance car brand focused on innovation and design, with their luxury electric SUV, the pstar 3, being highlighted (2m48s).
• The hosts welcome Nei Patel and Joanna Stern to the studio, expressing excitement about spending time together and discussing their predictions for 2025 (3m25s).
• The goal is to make predictions for 2025, with each person's predictions increasing in level of "spiciness" or confidence, and the person with the most correct predictions at the end of the year wins a prize (3m47s).
• The rules of the game are that after each person gives a prediction, the other two can decide to "co-sign" that prediction, and at the end of the year, a person gets a point if their prediction comes true and loses a point if it doesn't (4m11s).
• The prize for the person with the most points at the end of the year is the "most cool gadget of 2025," with the winner getting to choose the gadget and the other participants buying it for them (4m52s).

Joanna's Predictions: Social Media and AI

• Joanna is the guest and gets to go first, starting with her mildest prediction for 2025, which is that she will still be posting to 500 different social media accounts at the end of the year because social media is still fractured (5m25s).
• Joanna's prediction includes posting to various social media platforms, including Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, and others, and she believes that the number of platforms will not decrease but may increase (5m49s).
• Joanna also mentions that she will have an AI agent that will help her post to these social media accounts, and she believes that this AI agent will be able to keep posting to the same or even more accounts (7m4s).
• A prediction is made that the ability to post to multiple social media platforms with one button will become a reality, and users will experience this as a simplification of their online presence, despite the actual number of platforms remaining the same (7m32s).
• This is possible due to the interoperability of open-source projects, which will be used to build new social media platforms, allowing them to work seamlessly with each other (9m14s).
• The fediverse, a decentralized network of social media platforms, is seen as a key player in this development, as it allows users to post to multiple platforms at once (8m10s).
• Truth Social, a social media platform, is mentioned as an example of a platform that has copied the open-source code base of Mastodon, another social media platform (8m43s).
• The proliferation of video platforms, such as TikTok, is also discussed, with some predicting that they will continue to thrive and become even more popular (10m0s).

Predictions about Amazon, Apple, and Alexa

• Amazon's stakes for its upcoming product are low, as it doesn't have to be perfect and the company has time to solve any problems, unlike Google and Apple which face higher pressure to deliver successful products (10m38s).
• The prediction is that Amazon will wait to launch its product, and it will be "okay" when it does, not necessarily launching in 2025, but possibly in the next year (11m22s).
• A counterpoint is made that Apple's intelligence will get worse, not better, as the company tries to make it do more things that it's not capable of, feeling pressure from other products (11m44s).
• Amazon, on the other hand, doesn't have a business based on the pressure to deliver a perfect product, and users are lazy and only use it for simple tasks like playing music and setting timers (12m22s).
• The pressure on Amazon to deliver a new Alexa is increasing, but the company still has the ability to wait and get it right, with the new Alexa having the best shot at being "okay" (13m5s).
• A prediction is made that the new Alexa will get a lot of people fired, and it would be funny if it's not okay, especially given the large install base of regular users (13m18s).
• The desire for the new Alexa to not be okay is driven by the potential for humorous headlines and content, rather than a genuine desire for the product to fail (13m52s).
• A movie has a scene with a robot that says "processing" and beeps, which inspired Amazon to add a similar feature to Alexa, but it was not well-received by the author's mom, who found it confusing and thought Alexa had become "stupider" (14m4s).
• The author notes that this is an example of how ambient computing can be difficult to implement, as it needs to make sense to everyone in the room, which can be challenging (14m30s).

David's Cable TV Prediction

• David predicts that cable TV will "pretty much totally die" in 2025, with the traditional model of linear channels and cable boxes becoming outdated (15m40s).
• However, David notes that there will still be some people who continue to use cable TV, just like there are still people who use AOL and pay for email addresses (16m10s).
• The author asks follow-up questions about whether YouTube TV and other over-the-top cable bundles are included in David's prediction, and David clarifies that he is referring to traditional cable TV offerings from companies like Comcast (16m54s).
• David notes that companies like Comcast are spinning off their cable channels and moving away from traditional cable TV, which will no longer be an interesting business for them (16m47s).
• Spectrum has an app on Apple TVs that offers a grid of channels, but it's not great, and users are still paying for those channels, which is similar to traditional cable, but with the added benefit of being able to watch on an iPad or other devices (17m32s).
• Eli is "killing" all traditional cable services except for YouTube TV and Hulu with Live TV, citing inertia and a lack of interest from both consumers and the companies themselves (18m9s).
• Eli's parents have an Indian IP TV box that provides every channel, including locals in 4K, for free, and they pay for it through Venmo, highlighting an entire economy of such services (18m27s).
• The discussion implies that traditional cable is going away, except for YouTube TV, and Joanna is still unsure if she agrees with this assessment (19m9s).
• Joanna claims she doesn't have cable boxes and neither do her parents, and she's "in" on the idea that traditional cable is becoming irrelevant (19m17s).
• The group agrees that every cable company, except for YouTube TV, is going out of business or becoming irrelevant, with the speed of this decline expected to increase rapidly (19m48s).
• The cable industry has been investing in streaming while relying on traditional cable revenue, but this model is expected to collapse soon, with the "death of cable money" happening faster than anticipated (20m0s).

Walmart and TikTok

• Walmart buying TikTok is considered a medium-level prediction for 2025, as Donald Trump, a major benefactor of TikTok, cannot overturn the law passed by Congress that requires TikTok to be sold or removed from US app stores (21m51s).
• The law is designed to force the sale of TikTok, and Trump is known for loving deals, making a sale a likely outcome, with Walmart being a potential buyer due to its interest in e-commerce and lack of antitrust concerns (22m52s).
• The algorithm of TikTok is a major sticking point, but it's believed that the quality of the algorithm is not as important as it once was, and that users are already invested in the platform, making it easier for a new owner to take over (23m21s).
• The perceived quality gap between TikTok and other platforms like Reels and Shorts has decreased, with creators finding ways to post content across multiple platforms without issues, making the algorithm less of a concern (24m4s).
• The most likely outcome is that TikTok will be sold, as overturning the law passed by Congress seems unlikely, and Walmart is a potential buyer due to its interests and lack of antitrust concerns (24m30s).
• There is speculation about a potential buyer of TikTok, with some considering Walmart as a possible candidate, given its history of making large purchases and its existing e-commerce platform (26m21s).
• Walmart's potential acquisition of TikTok is seen as a way for the company to expand its reach and compete with other tech giants, although some argue that Walmart's business model may not be the best fit for TikTok's user-generated content (24m50s).
• The conversation also touches on the topic of social media companies and their potential for survival, with some predicting that TikTok will continue to thrive despite potential regulatory challenges (26m27s).

AI, Smart Glasses, and Meta vs. Apple

• A prediction is made that someone will create an AI gadget in 2025 that will be a huge hit, potentially revolutionizing the tech industry (26m50s).
• Another prediction is made that AI will be conclusively proven to be a bubble, similar to Bluetooth, with lofty predictions and hype surrounding the technology (27m54s).
• The conversation also mentions Menards, a Midwestern home improvement store, as a comparison to Home Depot, with some arguing that Menards is superior (25m59s).
• Bluetooth was expected to be an enabling technology for an ecosystem of products, but it never panned out as envisioned, with the smart home and other devices not relying on it as much as predicted (28m15s).
• Despite this, Bluetooth is still used in various applications, including retail tracking, where stores use it to track customers' movements and send them targeted advertisements (29m0s).
• Apple had to create its own special Bluetooth protocol to make AirPods work, which is seen as an example of the limitations of the technology (29m25s).
• AI is compared to Bluetooth in terms of its potential to be overhyped and not live up to expectations, with the prediction that there will not be a single AI product that is widely adopted and successful (29m34s).
• A prediction is made that Meta will release another pair of smart glasses, the Ray-Ban smart glasses, with a heads-up display, and that Meta will outpace Apple in the smart glasses market (31m2s).
• There is a disagreement about the potential of AI and smart glasses, with some believing that AI will not lead to a widely adopted product and others thinking that Meta's approach to smart glasses is better than Apple's (31m22s).
• A joke is made about the Ray-Ban smart glasses not fitting well on a person with a big head, and the difficulty of using them (31m50s).
• Apple's iOS does not automatically transfer photos to the phone, but Android does, and the camera on the mentioned device is considered fine, while the AI is extremely medium (32m11s).
• The person discussing the topic is active outdoors, often going running, tubing, and skiing, and they stopped wearing sunglasses indoors and at night after listening to a Cory Hart song as a teenager (32m49s).
• Transition lenses are considered not terrible and were popularized by a story in The Journal about how the transition lens company would take off due to Meta's smart glasses (33m8s).
• The person discussing the topic has clear transition lenses with Ray-Bans, but they still have issues with the lenses not adjusting quickly enough when going inside (33m23s).
• A person from the speaker's high school had transition lenses and was considered cool and handsome, and is now in the NFL (33m47s).
• Meta is predicted to remain ahead in the smart glasses category because Apple will not launch something as good as the Ray-Bans, and Apple will have to make something better (34m3s).
• Apple is likely working on smart glasses, but they have not been announced yet, and the Wall Street Journal has not published a headline about them (34m23s).
• Transition lenses have received positive reviews, with Vogue publishing a story called "Transition Lenses Are Now My Entire Personality" (35m6s).
• Meta is working on a heads-up display in a pair of smart glasses, which will likely be sunglasses, and the company is open to discussing the project with reporters (35m21s).
• Transition lenses for displays will be a significant factor in 2025, and if they don't work well, they could negatively impact the appeal of smart glasses (35m34s).
• The ideal smart glasses should show basic information, such as text messages, in the user's line of sight, and AI potential lies in this functionality (35m56s).
• The Meta glasses are considered the best AI gadget because they offer more than just AI capabilities (36m15s).
• The ranking of important features for smart glasses is: camera, mic/SL speaker, and AI, with audio being the top priority for some users (36m26s).
• The use of smart glasses for playing music and setting timers might become a problem, but it's not a major concern (36m56s).
• Amazon has been trying to integrate Alexa into wearable devices, but hasn't found the right fit yet (37m24s).
• Meta is expected to continue outpacing Apple in the smart glasses market in 2025, mainly because Apple is not likely to launch a new product in this category (37m31s).
• Apple might focus on developing their next "face computer" instead of launching a new product in 2025 (37m50s).
• The price of the Vision Pro might be dropped, but a new face computer is unlikely to be launched by Apple in 2025 (37m59s).

Smart Home and Matter

• A "spicy take" for 2025 is that everyone will give up on Matter and bail on the smart home, instead opting for individual smart gadgets (39m37s).
• Joanna recently fixed her garage door after weeks of effort, which involved using a Miros adapter and troubleshooting issues with her LiftMaster garage door opener (40m23s).
• The LiftMaster garage door opener uses a proprietary protocol to talk to the door opener on the wall, which is labeled as a security feature but is essentially DRM (digital rights management) (42m17s).
• The issue with the LiftMaster was difficult to resolve, with the solution hidden in support forums, and the problem was only solved when Joanna discovered that her garage door opener's "learn button" was yellow, indicating that it was incompatible with the Miros adapter (42m42s).
• The experience has given Joanna a new appreciation for the complexity of smart home technology and the challenges of solving problems in this area (41m21s).
• A company called MOS created a hacked garage door opener adapter that connects to the Miros, allowing for voice control through Siri, and sent it to the user, who set it up and found it to work perfectly (43m0s).
• The adapter uses a regular garage opener that is DRM-compatible and puts a wire in the actual button of the garage door opener, allowing the user to tell Siri to open the garage door (43m42s).
• The user initially experienced a bug where the garage door would open and close randomly due to the adapter picking up a signal from a neighbor's garage door opener, but a garage repair person was able to fix the issue (44m30s).
• The user is proud of their success in getting the smart garage door to work and feels a sense of happiness and pride when using it (45m23s).
• The experience highlights the challenges of smart home technology, including DRM restrictions and compatibility issues, and the need for companies to address these problems (46m2s).
• Despite these challenges, it is predicted that tech companies will continue to invest in smart home technology and promote the idea that AI will improve the smart home experience (46m6s).
• Apple is reportedly working on a new smart home system, which may be announced this year (46m33s).
• There's a prediction that companies will push Matter, a smart home standard, in 2025, despite a lack of enthusiasm from consumers, as they have invested heavily in the technology and have no choice but to promote it (46m36s).
• Many devices do not currently support Matter, and it's unclear if consumers will adopt the standard, with some people already losing interest in smart home technology (46m43s).
• The idea of a mainstream, useful smart home has been a long-held goal for companies, but it's possible that this dream will be abandoned in 2025 as it's not becoming a reality (47m2s).
• Some people are satisfied with their current smart home devices, such as smart light switches, and don't see the need for further innovation in this area (47m10s).
• Lutron Caseta smart home devices are mentioned as a high-end example of smart home technology that works well, partly due to the company owning a custom slice of RF spectrum (47m40s).
• The prediction is made that no one will come up with a smart home idea that will compel David Pierce, the owner of a "garbage TV," to adopt new smart home technology (48m31s).
• David Pierce mentions that he has a smart home, but it's not always working as intended, and he's trying to simplify it, with Nei being his mentor in this process (48m43s).
• The example of a garage door opening and closing by itself is given as an example of a smart home feature that's not always useful or desirable (49m11s).
• The topic of smart homes and Matter is expected to be a big topic in 2025, with differing opinions on whether companies will continue to invest in the technology (49m34s).

Mac Touchscreen and Google Breakup

• A prediction is made that the Mac will get a touchscreen, a recurring idea in past predictions, but it's unclear if it will just be a Mac with a touchscreen or a more meaningful change, possibly running iPad apps natively, with the iPad App Store available (49m49s).
• The idea of adding a touchscreen to the Mac is met with skepticism, as it would add cost and complexity, and it's unclear why Apple would do it unless they have a great reason (50m53s).
• The Mac and iPad were previously thought to be converging, but Apple's development of Apple silicon has changed that, making the Mac lineup the best it's ever been and more compelling to many people (51m31s).
• A hypothetical scenario is presented where you can either turn your Mac into an iPad with touchscreen support or turn your iPad into a Mac and lose touchscreen support, with the preference being to turn the Mac into an iPad (52m12s).
• The idea of a dockable iPad is preferred over a touchscreen Mac, with the ability to run iPad OS with a touchscreen, but also have the option to run Mac OS and disable the touchscreen (52m45s).
• The concept of running two operating systems side by side is mentioned, but it's clarified that the idea is to have a single device that can switch between being an iPad or a Mac, with the touchscreen enabled or disabled accordingly (52m58s).
• A prediction is made that either Mac OS will get a touchscreen or the Mac will get a touchscreen, as the iPad and Mac are becoming increasingly similar, and Apple doesn't have to solve this problem until a Windows or Android tablet provides competition to the iPad (53m23s).
• The lack of competition for the iPad means Apple doesn't feel pressured to make changes, and the current Windows tablets, such as the Surface, are more competition to the MacBook than the iPad (54m5s).
• Another prediction is made that Tim Cook will step down, and then the Mac will get a touchscreen, but this is unlikely as Tim Cook is still needed to handle certain tasks, such as dealing with the president (54m35s).
• A third prediction is made that Google will break itself up due to regulatory pressure, spinning off companies like YouTube, which would then compete with TikTok and become a public company, potentially increasing stock value (55m4s).
• This move would take YouTube away from Google's antitrust problems, but it wouldn't solve the scrutiny of Chrome and the ad business, and would allow Google to say it has made itself smaller and less powerful (56m0s).
• Google may solve the problem of having too many messaging apps by using Aloe for all its secret messaging, as it's unlikely lawyers would think to subpoena Aloe messages (56m40s).
• Google launched Alo, an AI-powered messaging app, 10 years ago, which was a good idea that everyone liked, but none of the predicted plans for Google's messaging strategy have come to pass (57m12s).
• A prediction is made that if Google breaks up in 2025, the person who made the prediction should be made the CEO of YouTube (57m54s).

Recap of Predictions and Discussion

• Joanna's mild prediction is that a year from now, people will still be posting to a million social accounts (58m30s).
• Eli's medium prediction is that Meta will continue to outpace Apple on glasses (58m38s).
• A spicy prediction is that the touchscreen Mac and the iPad with Mac OS will merge into one device (58m46s).
• Nei's mild prediction is that Alexa will be fine, but Joanna and Eli are out on this prediction (59m38s).
• Nei's medium prediction is that Walmart will buy TikTok, which Joanna and Eli are both in on (59m51s).
• Nei's spicy prediction is that Google will break itself up in a meaningful way (59m58s).
• Google is also Alphabet, and any Alphabet company (excluding moonshots that lose billions of dollars) could be considered for a prediction (1h0m21s).
• The prediction that cable TV will "pretty much totally die" is made, with some participants already considering the cable box business dead and boring (1h0m50s).
• A minority investor, Comcast, has a stake in the Xfinity X1 box, which is considered cool, and disclosure is made that Nei produced a Netflix show (1h1m26s).
• A medium take is that someone will make an AI gadget that "actually kicks ass," but the participants are skeptical (1h1m52s).
• A spicy take is that the industry and the world will collectively give up on Matter, a smart home standard (1h1m59s).
• The participants discuss the rules of the game, including how many points are at stake and what constitutes a win (1h2m7s).
• A previous prediction about Google breaking itself up is mentioned, with the winner receiving points if it comes true (1h2m16s).
• A spicy take about AI being a failure is mentioned, but it is not considered a valid prediction (1h2m32s).
• Bluetooth is discussed as an example of a technology that did not live up to its hype, with some people thinking it "happened" but not in the way that was expected (1h2m54s).
• The participants joke about the lack of a "Bluetooth bubble" popping and the absence of a hundred billion dollar Bluetooth startup (1h3m17s).
• Apple created a proprietary extension to Bluetooth for their devices, such as AirPods, which is layered on top of Bluetooth and not accessible to other companies, despite Bluetooth being the underlying technology (1h4m5s).
• The idea that AI is the new Bluetooth is being compared, suggesting that just as Bluetooth was once seen as the future but had limitations, AI might be overhyped and have its own set of limitations (1h4m44s).
• The discussion about Bluetooth and AI is being used to make a point that people often say that a technology will be better next year, but it may not necessarily live up to expectations (1h5m6s).

Conclusion and Sponsors

• The Vergecast will continue with more 2025 prediction discussions next week, including some fun topics (1h5m12s).
• The Verge has a subscription available, and 2025 is expected to be a significant year with many new developments (1h5m42s).
• Listeners can email the Vergecast at vergecast@theverge.com or call the hotline at 866 Verge 011 to share their thoughts, questions, and predictions for 2025 (1h5m58s).
• The show is produced by Liam James, Will Por, and Eric Gomez, and is part of the VOX media podcast Network (1h6m21s).
• The Vergecast will return on Tuesday with a meta episode, followed by regular programming for a couple of weeks before the end of the year (1h6m26s).
• The show is sponsored by P star, whose first all-electric SUV, the Pulstar 3, is now available on the roads across the US (1h6m43s).
• The automotive OS is designed to enhance the driving experience with an intuitive infotainment screen, smart voice controls, and over-the-air updates (1h7m1s).
• The system allows for integration with Google to play favorite podcasts and provides an immersive experience with 3D surround sound by Bowers and Wilkins (1h7m12s).
• The features of the "poar 3" can be explored by test driving at a local "postar space" and booking can be done at pollstar.com (1h7m20s).