Drones, Deepfakes, and Disruptors with Lon Harris, Remento and Cuby | E2058
Jason and Lon Harris kick off the show (0s)
- A company called Remento is turning memories into a Keepsake book with no writing required, preserving a loved one's story the easy way by using language models to create a personalized book of their stories (8s).
- The process involves selecting prompts for a parent or grandparent to answer, recording their responses in an app, and then creating a book based on those responses, which can be scanned to listen to the recorded stories via a QR code (25s).
- This concept is considered somewhat creepy, but less so than using AI to recreate deceased loved ones, which is seen as troublesome and ghoulish (42s).
- The idea of using AI to hold on to deceased loved ones forever is seen as unnatural, as people are supposed to die and be remembered, and grief should be felt without augmentation (1m2s).
- The discussion is part of "This Week in Startups," which is sponsored by Squarespace, Lemon.io, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (1m16s).
Welcome back to Lon Harris and discussion on current events (2m6s)
- Lon Harris is back to discuss current events after a 14-year run with over 2,000 episodes of "This Week in Startups", which he considers a way to connect with people, stay updated on news, and build a community around startups and tech (2m8s).
- Harris mentions that the community also discusses other topics, including international relations, and that he's proud of his friend David Sachs, who was named as an AI advisor, despite not agreeing with him on everything (2m58s).
- Harris believes that having friends like Sachs around President Trump can help steer the country towards smaller government, less regulation, and more efficiency (3m33s).
- He notes that it's possible to trust and think highly of someone, even if you don't agree with them on everything, and that this is an important aspect of politics (3m55s).
- Harris thinks that 2024 and 2025 will be frenetic years, similar to the first Trump presidency, with a lot of news and a divisive environment created by Trump's presence (4m27s).
- He mentions that Trump's recent Meet the Press interview showed some positive signs, such as prioritizing the deportation of criminals and not seeking retribution, but notes that Trump's words can't always be trusted (5m10s).
- Harris believes that Trump's ability to say things without necessarily meaning them gives him a lot of power, as people can pick and choose what they want to believe (5m51s).
Drones in New Jersey: Security issues and speculations on their origin (6m4s)
- In mid-November, residents in Central and Northern New Jersey, specifically Morris County, reported seeing a large number of drones flying at night, which are larger than typical commercial drones and have raised concerns (7m20s).
- These drones seem to be flying around sensitive areas, including military installations and President Trump's Bedminster Golf Course, sparking speculation about their origin and purpose (7m49s).
- The mayors of 21 towns across New Jersey sent a letter to Governor Phil Murphy, calling for an investigation into the drones, their origin, purpose, and compliance with local regulations (8m4s).
- Governor Murphy stated that the drones appear to be sophisticated and can turn off their safety lights when detected, making it harder to track them, but assured that Homeland Security, the FBI, the Secret Service, and the New Jersey State Police are investigating (8m53s).
- Despite the investigation, there is no immediate reason for public concern, and the FAA has imposed flight restrictions on the area pending further investigation (9m19s).
- Some witnesses reported seeing a fixed-wing aircraft flying near the drones, but this has not been confirmed (9m43s).
- The drones are believed to be large, expensive, and possibly customizable or self-built, leading to speculation that they may be operated by a military group or commercial venture (9m57s).
- The ability of the drones to turn their lights on and off suggests that they may be more advanced than typical commercial drones, possibly indicating a military or handmade origin (10m52s).
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- Commercial drones, as opposed to retail or consumer drones, have different uses and regulations, such as restricted flying areas (12m42s).
- Certain areas, like protected federal land, may have restrictions on flying drones (12m57s).
Privacy concerns surrounding drone technology (13m4s)
- Some parks and areas, such as military zones, have restrictions on flying drones, and some drone software includes GPS maps that prevent users from flying over these restricted areas (13m5s).
- However, some drones, such as those used in Ukraine, can be assembled and flown without these restrictions, raising concerns about potential misuse by terrorists (13m21s).
- The use of drones for malicious purposes is a concern, and it is possible for a dedicated person with the right technology to fly a drone over an American city with a payload (14m14s).
- The Chinese weather balloon incident, where a mysterious balloon was spotted over the US, highlights the illusion of safety and the potential for unknown objects to enter US airspace (13m42s).
- The US eventually shot down some of the Chinese balloons, but only after they had passed over land and were over water, to avoid potential risks (14m25s).
- The incident highlights the need for better insights into what is happening in the sky, and local police departments are starting to use drones to gain an overhead view of situations before squad cars arrive (14m47s).
- Startups are developing drones for police use, which can provide an overhead view of situations such as burglaries, allowing police to respond more effectively (14m57s).
- The use of drones by local police is similar to military tactics, providing a bird's-eye view of a situation before responding (15m16s).
The future of drone delivery services (15m27s)
- Drone delivery services may raise privacy concerns, as they could potentially be used to spy on people without their knowledge or consent, similar to how kids have used drones to be "peeping Toms" in cities (15m49s).
- Companies like DoorDash are testing drone delivery services in various locations, including Ireland, which could lead to a "race" for who can deliver food and other items the fastest (16m0s).
- The use of drones for delivery could be particularly useful in areas with high traffic congestion, such as Silver Lake, where the streets are often crowded with delivery drivers (16m41s).
- However, the increased use of drones could also lead to a constant buzzing noise in the skies, which could be a nuisance for people living in densely populated areas (17m18s).
- Drones are generally quieter than cars, so they might be a more desirable option for delivery in residential areas, especially if they can deliver to backyards rather than front doors (17m2s).
- The practicality of drone delivery services depends on the density of the area, with more spread-out areas like the suburbs or countryside being more suitable for this type of delivery (17m33s).
- Companies like Zip Line are developing drone delivery systems that can work well in areas with houses that are a mile or more apart, such as in rural or suburban areas (17m50s).
- The use of drones for delivery could save time and money, especially in areas with limited access to fast delivery services, and could potentially be used in areas like Lake Tahoe or Sacramento (18m15s).
- Amazon already offers same-day delivery in some areas, and the use of drones could make this service even faster and more efficient (18m45s).
- The success of drone delivery services will depend on various factors, including the density of the area, the availability of willing drivers, and the development of efficient delivery systems (19m21s).
OpenAI's launch of the video generation tool, Sora (19m32s)
- OpenAI has formally launched its video generation tool, Sora, which was initially announced in February and made available to beta testers and select users for sampling. (19m32s)
- Sora is currently available in the US and across Asia, with details about its launch in Europe and the UK pending. (19m45s)
- The tool is included in the subscription for current ChatGPT Plus and Pro users, who do not need to pay any additional fees to access Sora. (19m54s)
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The emergence of new mediums from AI tools (21m34s)
- Open AI has introduced a new generative AI app called Sora, which can generate high-definition video clips based on user input, such as prompts, existing videos, or images, and is considered the next logical step after their image generation tool, Dolly (21m36s).
- Sora is not a complete product but an experiment, and Open AI wants to give society time to explore its possibilities and co-develop norms and safeguards for AI-generated video (22m0s).
- Several other AI companies, including Google, Amazon, and Stability, have their own text-to-video generation tools, but Open AI's Sora is unique in its multimodality, allowing it to combine text, image, and video generation (22m40s).
- Sora's videos are watermarked to identify them as AI-generated, which is seen as a smart idea to prevent misuse (23m2s).
- Reviewers have noted that Sora's videos, while interesting, do not look realistic enough to be mistaken for real life, and instead have a quality that is halfway between animation and reality (23m37s).
- The limitations of Sora's realism are attributed to the Uncanny Valley, a phenomenon where human brains are highly attuned to recognizing human faces and expressions, making it more difficult to create realistic AI-generated human faces (24m15s).
- The goal of AI-generated video technology is to eventually overcome these limitations and create more realistic videos, which will require further development and refinement (24m46s).
- Deepfakes have become increasingly realistic, making it difficult to distinguish between real and fake content, with some examples looking real enough to be believable, but still having limitations (25m7s).
- The "uncanny valley" phenomenon, where the brain is good at existing in 3D space, makes it challenging for virtual reality and deepfakes to convincingly replicate real-life experiences (25m55s).
- The human brain is highly skilled at detecting discrepancies in 3D space, making it essential for deepfakes and virtual reality to downgrade video quality to create a more convincing experience (26m16s).
- A deepfake of Luigi Manion, the CEO of a company, was created, and the video was put through a VHS filter to make it look older, successfully tricking some people into believing it was real (26m21s).
- The limitations of deepfakes, including problems with physics and object motion, have been noted by reviewers, such as Marquez Brownlee, who pointed out that Sora has issues with 3D objects and their movement (27m9s).
- Open AI has acknowledged these limitations, stating that their goal is not to create perfect, movie-quality images, but rather to provide a co-creative dynamic for users to brainstorm and explore ideas (27m26s).
- Deepfakes may eventually become their own genre, similar to how computer animation and traditional animation are distinct genres, with their own unique characteristics and appreciation (28m11s).
- The progression of animation and special effects in film history, from Disney to Pixar to Industrial Light Magic, has shown that new technologies can eventually become their own genre and be appreciated for their unique qualities (27m50s).
- The idea of AI-generated CGI, such as Pixar-style animation, raises questions about whether it can replicate the creative expression and emotional depth of human-made animation (28m37s).
- A key aspect of animation is the sensory experience and conscious thought that goes into creating it, which is difficult to replicate with a computer program that relies on calculations and algorithms (29m14s).
- While a computer can process and generate images based on specifications, it lacks the emotions, experiences, and personal perspective that a human artist brings to a creative work (30m8s).
- Despite these reservations, it's difficult to say with certainty that a computer will never be able to create animation that looks cool or enjoyable, given the rapid progress of technology (30m28s).
- Past experiences with new technologies, such as Uber and Airbnb, have taught the importance of humility and not dismissing ideas that may seem ridiculous at first (30m42s).
- The rapid advancement of technology can lead to unexpected outcomes, and it's possible that AI-generated animation could surprise and impress audiences in the future (31m2s).
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- AI is becoming increasingly prevalent across various industries, including self-driving cars, medical research, and business tools, and is expected to continue growing rapidly (31m5s).
- The use of AI requires significant computing power, resulting in potentially skyrocketing costs if not managed properly (31m20s).
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- Companies can check if they qualify for this special offer at oracle.com (32m25s).
Startup of the Day: Remento (32m28s)
- A new medium may emerge from the tools of drones, deepfakes, and disruptors, allowing artists to create and share short animations and vignettes on social media platforms like Twitter and Instagram, with the possibility of integrating these tools into the creative process (32m28s).
- This integration could enable artists to make interesting conceptually and storyboard-like content, with the human element still being essential in the creative process (33m17s).
- The use of these tools may allow more people to get creative and make content, but only a small percentage of the audience will likely figure out how to effectively utilize them (34m3s).
- The example of Shawn Baker, who made a movie on an iPhone, demonstrates how some individuals can successfully use new technology to create respected works (34m21s).
- The use of iPhones and other smartphones to create films has become more prevalent, with some movies like "Tangerine" and "Florida Project" being shot mostly on phones (34m34s).
- The quality of footage from iPhones has improved to the point where it may be comparable to footage from professional cameras like the Red camera, especially when considering the audience's perception (35m30s).
- The availability of professional-grade lenses and add-ons for iPhones has further blurred the line between smartphone and professional camera footage (35m40s).
- The quality of camera lenses is no longer a significant differentiator due to advancements in technology and the availability of add-ons and accessories, making it possible for high-quality images to be captured even with an iPhone, especially when combined with good lighting and other top-grade camera equipment (35m50s).
- A startup called Vero.co offers a service that turns memories into a keepsake book without requiring writing, using spoken words to create a personalized book of stories (36m22s).
- The service uses language models to select prompts for family members to answer, records their responses, and creates a book based on the recordings, which can be scanned to listen to the original audio (37m14s).
- The technology used by Vero.co can turn voice into narrative, allowing users to choose the writing style and customize the final result, and can even convert first-person speech into third-person narrative (37m30s).
- The service is seen as a more accessible alternative to bespoke services that charge $2,000 to $110,000 to create a similar book, and is considered a good option for those who cannot afford the more expensive services (37m55s).
- Some people may find the idea of using AI to recreate the voice or stories of deceased loved ones to be creepy or ghoulish, and may be concerned about the potential for AI to be used to deceive or manipulate people (38m14s).
- The use of AI to recreate the voice or stories of deceased loved ones is seen as an impersonation trick, rather than a genuine recreation of the person's mind or consciousness (39m3s).
- An interactive digital archive allows users to record and store stories from their loved ones, which can be revisited at any time, using prompts similar to those used by documentarians (39m15s).
- This concept raises questions about the need for such an archive, as people are supposed to die and be remembered, and whether it's necessary to augment grief (40m34s).
- The idea of "raw dogging" flights, where one doesn't watch videos or entertainment during a flight, is mentioned as a mental exercise that can be challenging in today's dopamine-driven media landscape (40m55s).
- The concept of the "Ludo treatment" from the movie A Clockwork Orange is referenced, where the main character is forced to watch violent clips while listening to his favorite music, associating the two and ruining his life (41m52s).
- This idea is compared to the current state of social media, where users are optimized to scroll through vertical videos and receive dopamine hits, similar to the Ludo treatment (41m41s).
- The device of overwhelming someone with information, as seen in The Fifth Element, is also mentioned, where the main character downloads all the knowledge of the world at once and is overwhelmed by the atrocities she learns about (42m30s).
- The classic sci-fi trope of the outsider who instantly catches up on the world through the TV or internet is a well-liked and relatable concept. (42m52s)
Uber's milestone and the future of ride-sharing (43m6s)
- Uber achieved a new milestone of 1 million concurrent trips, which is more than the entire population of San Francisco, with the help of AI in ensuring matching, routing, safety, and payments at scale (43m6s).
- The term "trips" likely includes both people riding in Ubers and food delivery, as the routing infrastructure is the same for both services (43m53s).
- This achievement showcases Uber's massive scale and ability to handle a tremendous amount of rides every minute (44m11s).
- Uber's CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, is proud of the company's Tech Team for translating digital complexity into real-world convenience for hundreds of millions of people around the world (43m41s).
- The company's success is reflected in its profitability, with plans to buy back stock, and its expansion into self-driving technology and other services (44m25s).
- Uber's size and scale are significant, with hundreds of millions of customers and a million concurrent trips at the same time, which is equivalent to almost 1% of its customers using the service simultaneously (45m18s).
- The need for a million cars on the road at any given point in time to facilitate these concurrent rides is a notable aspect of Uber's operations (45m34s).
- Uber's popularity varies by location, with Los Angeles seeing a decline in Uber usage as a transportation option, but a rise in Uber Eats usage (45m55s).
- Uber Eats has become a popular service in cities with a wide range of food options, such as Los Angeles, where users can order from various restaurants and have food delivered (46m10s).
- The future of transportation is expected to shift towards ride-sharing, with a predicted 10-20% of rides in the United States being shared in the next decade, up from the current 1-2% (47m0s).
- Car ownership is seen as a major issue, with the need to reduce the number of cars on the road, and ride-sharing is viewed as a viable option to achieve this (47m14s).
- The benefits of ride-sharing include recapturing time spent driving, reducing parking and storage costs, and improving city infrastructure (47m24s).
- Cities like Manhattan are already experimenting with car-free zones, such as the closure of roads in Times Square and Herald Square, to create public spaces and promote walkability (47m45s).
- The transformation of cities into more pedestrian-friendly areas is expected to be fantastic, with the potential to create vibrant public squares and plazas (48m31s).
- However, there are concerns about the impact of automation on gig jobs, with millions of people potentially losing their jobs as companies like Uber, DoorDash, and Amazon adopt autonomous delivery systems (48m33s).
- The loss of these jobs could have significant consequences, as many people rely on them for extra income or part-time employment to pay their bills and support their families (49m23s).
- The solution to this issue may involve implementing a universal basic income, although this idea is often met with resistance in the United States due to concerns about socialism and welfare (50m5s).
- The rate at which jobs are being eliminated due to technological advancements, such as AI, robots, and self-driving cars, is far beyond the rate at which people can be trained for new jobs or even needed in new jobs (50m16s).
- Combining AI, robots, and self-driving cars is resulting in the elimination of millions of jobs at a rapid pace (50m23s).
- It is not feasible to retrain all displaced workers to code, as there are not enough available jobs, and many sectors, such as retail, have already been significantly reduced (50m36s).
- The retail sector, which used to be a common place for people to find temporary work, has been largely eliminated, with companies like Amazon taking over (50m40s).
- Innovations such as DoorDash and Uber Eats are transforming the restaurant industry into "ghost kitchens," reducing the need for delivery drivers and potentially other workers (51m0s).
- The increasing automation of warehouses and factories may also lead to a significant reduction in the need for human workers in these sectors (51m10s).
Alex Gumbel from Quby Technologies joins the TWIST500 (51m14s)
- QB Technologies builds homes using mobile microfactories, which are factories that can be deployed on-site to build homes within a 100-150 mile radius, allowing for faster, quieter, and cheaper construction with higher precision (51m21s).
- The company was founded in 2021, is based in New York City, and has manufacturing operations in Eastern Europe, specifically in Minsk, and has raised $6.4 million in known capital (52m10s).
- QB Technologies' co-founder and COO, Alex Gumble, explains that their approach is different from others in the space, such as Blockable, which tried to industrialize construction but didn't succeed (52m35s).
- The key difference in QB Technologies' approach is that they bring the factory to the work site, rather than delivering homes built in a factory 500 miles away (53m11s).
- QB Technologies' approach is based on three core pillars: bringing the factory to the site, building homes traditionally on-site, and doing so in a cost-effective way that combats existing costs (53m34s).
- The company's mobile microfactory produces a kit of parts that is then assembled into homes using their own labor, and they focus on building homes in a traditional way, without deviating from what a traditional home is, to avoid regulation risk and incumbent adoption risk (53m41s).
- QB Technologies aims to provide better process information, a better supply chain, and procurement management system, while also being cost-effective and providing better quality assurance (54m15s).
- The analogy of Tesla's Roadster to Model 3 is not applicable in the construction space, as it is a highly conservative industry where being cheaper than existing home builders is crucial for relevance, and the goal is to consistently build homes at around $100 a foot, significantly lower than the national average of $152. (54m39s)
- The company is a full-stack technology company that builds both hardware and software, with the primary purpose of improving building processes in new home construction. (55m4s)
- The company designs, develops, and deploys mobile microfactories, which are containerized solutions to a factory, allowing for a popup building that can be easily set up and taken down. (55m15s)
- The mobile microfactory features an inflatable roof, utilizing repurposed air hanger technology, which allows the doors to be kept wide open while maintaining pressure. (55m36s)
- The company builds about 50% of the hardware in-house and deploys it into containers, enabling the setup of a factory that can be erected in eight weeks, using around 60 containers. (55m52s)
Economics of mobile micro factories and deskilling labor in home construction (56m0s)
- A mobile microfactory (MMF) can be set up and start constructing houses after unloading shipping containers at a site, with the process being economically viable after constructing around 200 homes per year, covering an output of approximately 430,000 square feet, and serving a 50-mile radius (56m1s).
- Each MMF costs around $10 million and can be commercialized, allowing for the production of homes at a lower cost basis, with the goal of making the output profitable (56m32s).
- An MMF replaces the need for a general contractor and 22 different subcontractors, instead employing around 260 people, including 35 factory floor workers in two shifts, a dozen GNA workers, and four unskilled workers per construction site in two shifts (57m9s).
- The construction process involves panelization of products, taking out factory work to make it easier to assemble on-site, with the factory consuming around 600 different bill of materials, producing some items from scratch, prepping finished goods, and using off-the-shelf products (58m14s).
- The business model involves breaking down a home into 35 stages, sending just-in-time stages to be assembled by unskilled workers, with the goal of deskilling the labor required to build homes and addressing the housing crisis caused by a retiring workforce and lack of young people entering the construction industry (58m43s).
- Micro mobile microfactories (MMFs) are being used to revolutionize the construction industry by allowing workers to build homes in a factory setting, eliminating the need for skilled labor to work on-site in various weather conditions and reducing the need for workers to travel and stay in motels (59m24s).
- In a factory setting, workers can use high-precision equipment and work regular shifts, reducing noise and disruptions to neighbors, and increasing efficiency by eliminating the need for manual measurements and document checks (1h0m8s).
- The goal is not to immediately roboticize the construction process, but rather to first make skilled labor more efficient, and then automate in a cost-effective way, building on the principles of lean manufacturing (1h0m45s).
- The construction industry has not yet adopted lean manufacturing processes, and by doing so, it can increase efficiency and reduce waste (1h0m53s).
- The process is being extended beyond the factory setting to on-site construction, where workers are provided with a container of tools and equipment, and follow process instructions and augmented reality guides to assemble homes (1h1m27s).
- This approach is similar to building IKEA furniture, and requires clear instructions and consistency in tools and processes to simplify the construction process (1h2m0s).
- The use of 3D models, videos, and numbered tools helps to improve the construction process and make it more efficient (1h2m12s).
- The approach is a hardware and software-enabled process improvement, rather than a complete reinvention of materials or the concept of a home (1h2m24s).
- The more the construction process deviates from traditional methods, the harder it is to sell into the system, making it important to balance innovation with practicality (1h2m31s).
- The discussion revolves around customizability in home design, specifically in relation to a house that matches a personal aesthetic, with a focus on wood and right angles (1h2m48s).
- The ability to customize homes is possible within a certain radius, but it's not volumetric modular, and instead uses standardized inputs with a non-proprietary supply chain (1h2m59s).
- This approach allows for different iterations of inputs, resulting in hundreds of permutations of what can be built on site, similar to using Lego blocks (1h3m29s).
- The homes use very standard inputs, which can be sourced from places like Home Depot, with only two main differences in the homes by definition (1h3m38s).
- Standardizing inputs limits the ability to hire a home builder to create a completely custom home, but this is seen as a necessary trade-off for the benefits of standardization and lean manufacturing (1h3m45s).
- While there are hundreds of permutations possible, the customization options are still more limited than traditional construction, but can still accommodate most designs that production home builders can create (1h4m0s).
- The goal is to move away from the current state of construction, where every project is a one-off, and towards a more standardized and efficient process (1h3m51s).
Market demand and strategic focus in construction innovation (1h4m9s)
- The construction industry faces significant challenges, with 3.8 million homes missing in the US alone, resulting in a $2 trillion market demand that cannot be met due to physical limitations, making it an attractive space for innovation (1h4m23s).
- To address this issue, a company can have a massive outcome by finding a solution, but it requires significant investment, with an estimated 400,000 engineering hours needed, which would have required a $50 million seed raise (1h4m42s).
- To mitigate this risk, the company set up an engineering R&D hub in Eastern Europe, where costs are 7-10 times lower, allowing them to develop their technology without excessive funding (1h4m55s).
- The company's target markets are first-world countries, including the US, Europe, Australia, and Canada, where the cost of skilled labor is high, making their solution more viable (1h5m23s).
- The company aims to build single-family standalone homes, not multifamily units, and hopes to bring back master plan developments, which are needed for the aging Millennial demographic (1h5m28s).
- At their cost basis, the company hopes to incentivize the construction of more single-family homes for rent or sale, addressing the current shortage (1h5m55s).
- The company's technology, KB technology, is expected to be used to construct hundreds of thousands of homes in the next decade, with the first commercial deployment in Nevada producing 200 single-family homes per year (1h6m49s).
- The company plans to scale up to 275 mobile microfactories, each producing 200 homes per year, resulting in hundreds of thousands of homes built in the United States (1h6m54s).
Business model, customer base, and production goals for Qubii Technologies (1h7m10s)
- Qubii Technologies aims to build 275 mobile microfactories, which would produce around 55,000 homes per year, a small fraction of the US market's annual demand of about 1 million homes, highlighting the potential for growth in the undersupplied market (1h7m14s).
- The company's customers could be home builders, land owners, or a combination of both, with Qubii Technologies potentially selling direct to consumers or providing the lowest per square foot price to construction companies (1h8m2s).
- The business model is expected to evolve, with a focus on project finance and debt, allowing for cost-effective growth without relying on venture capital, and potentially launching its own factories and partnering with local home builders (1h8m22s).
- Qubii Technologies plans to unlock cost competitiveness for small to medium-sized home builders, who currently build 50% of the US market, by providing them with a cost basis similar to that of large builders like Lennar (1h9m8s).
- The company's master plan includes the possibility of launching its own home builder in the future, potentially 5-10 years from now (1h9m15s).
- One challenge in the business is the need to balance providing the lowest cost per square foot with the desire to offer customization and innovation, which could be achieved through partnerships or joint ventures with land owners and other investors (1h9m36s).
- Qubii Technologies' technology allows for customization and innovation in home building, including the use of standardized panels, magnets, and lug nuts, which can be aesthetically pleasing and easy to hide (1h10m35s).
- The company's product has the potential to disrupt the traditional home building industry, offering a more efficient and cost-effective way to build homes, with opportunities for growth and expansion in the future (1h11m10s).
Challenges and future prospects in the construction industry (1h11m11s)
- The goal is to be like the AWS of home building, aiming to create a $50 billion business by building 275 million modular factories (mmfs) over time, which is considered a conservative estimate (1h11m13s).
- The number 75 mmfs is not random, but rather it started as a joke due to space limitations in the corporate financial model, and it aligns with the company's near-term goals and production constraints (1h11m52s).
- To achieve this goal, the company plans to build a factory that can produce 20 factories per year, which will be used to manufacture homes using innovative materials and technologies (1h12m17s).
- The company is standing on the shoulders of giants, leveraging advancements in fabrication, water cutting, material science, and AI to drive innovation and reduce costs (1h12m30s).
- The use of new materials and technologies can help reduce maintenance costs and increase the lifespan of homes, but it also creates economic supply issues due to the labor force's familiarity with traditional materials and methods (1h13m0s).
- The company is focusing on creating affordable and sustainable homes, with innovations such as more affordable blocks, improved HVAC systems, and flood-resistant materials (1h13m31s).
- The two biggest problems in apartments are fires and floods, which can cause massive damage, and the company is working to eliminate these issues through the use of innovative materials and technologies (1h14m16s).
- By addressing these issues, the company aims to reduce the damage cost of homes and make them more sustainable and affordable (1h14m28s).
- Developers are constrained by their lenders and limited partners, which affects their decision-making and prioritization of cost over long-term efficiency and innovation (1h14m39s).
- The current system is a multivariate equation with many layers, and the way developers think is influenced by their focus on yield on cost and hard costs, rather than future efficiency (1h15m1s).
- Some investors are focused on climate and deep tech, and they see the potential for alternative materials to be used in construction, but it's hard for them to sell directly, so they need a conduit like the company being discussed (1h15m15s).
- The incentives in the construction industry are misaligned, with nobody thinking about the long-term consequences of their decisions, such as the third owner of a home experiencing problems with the building materials (1h15m41s).
- Logically, spending 10% more money to get an extra 10 years of life out of building materials would be well worth it, but the opposite is often true, with developers trying to save money by using cheaper materials (1h15m59s).
- The construction industry is unique in that buying a new product can result in a worse quality than buying an older one, with homes in the US being one of the only products where this is true (1h16m30s).
- An example of this is that older homes may be built with higher-quality materials that last longer, whereas newer homes may use cheaper materials that disintegrate quickly (1h16m50s).
- The cost of home building will continue to rise, leading to home builders cutting corners and using cheaper materials, which is a disaster and a tragedy of the commons (1h17m18s).
- Despite the challenges, the company being discussed is enthusiastic about the potential for innovation and disruption in the construction industry, and is looking to make a positive impact (1h17m48s).
- Alex Wilhelm is a capital allocator who has to deal with traumatic experiences, such as losing millions of dollars, but still maintain resiliency and enthusiasm for big markets and solving big problems (1h17m58s).
- Alex Wilhelm has created the Twist 500, a list of companies, and has a secret plan to invite all the founders of these companies to an event where they can hang out for a weekend (1h18m35s).
- The idea behind the Twist 500 is to raise $100 million and buy $500,000 worth of secondary shares in 200 of these companies, eventually all 500, to create a proper index of all the companies (1h18m53s).
- The goal is to have a private market index where one can own a little bit of each of the Twist 500 companies, which would be a fun and unique concept (1h19m5s).
- Alex Wilhelm plans to have an event where all the Twist 500 founders can come together, hang out, and have a good time (1h18m45s).