TWiST News: Bitcoin’s Future, Reddit Answers, SEC Shifts, and more! | E2057

Jason and Alex kick off the show (0s)

• Reddit, Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash are speculated to be acquired or part of a larger conglomerate in the next four years, with possibilities including Amazon acquiring Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash. (8s)
• Startups should avoid trying to raise money between Thanksgiving and January 15th, as this is considered a "dead zone" for founders, with VCs taking breaks and having unlimited time off. (1m49s)
• Founders of companies that are not world-class or competitive may struggle to raise funds during this time, unless they have tons of inbound interest and their company is similar to Open AI. (2m26s)
• Starting a company is considered the greatest thing one can do professionally, followed by joining a startup, investing in a startup, and trying a startup's product and giving feedback to the founder. (2m55s)
• The host is looking forward to trying out Sora from Open AI, but was unable to log in before recording the show, and is hoping to have access to it by Wednesday to show off some cool clips. (3m29s)
• The host and Jason both pay for ChatGPT and are excited to explore its capabilities. (3m41s)
• Sora, a video creation tool from Open AI, is expected to be a significant product release between now and 2025, potentially becoming part of a suite of tools like Microsoft Office. (3m47s)
• The tool may require a more comprehensive interface, as other AI-powered tools like Dolly and Chat GPT have been integrated or removed from their respective interfaces. (4m37s)
• A recent event, the all-in holiday spectacular, was held on Saturday, featuring a chaotic and fun celebration. (4m40s)
• Google's Gemini, a dedicated app, has been praised for its quality, rivaling that of Chat GPT, and is available for download as a dedicated iOS app. (4m59s)
• The voice interface of Gemini has been commended, and it has been recognized as one of the best technologies of the year, alongside self-driving cars. (5m23s)
• Self-driving cars, such as WhMo, have been tested and found to take longer routes, adding around 10 minutes to a 20-minute journey, due to their cautious driving style. (5m49s)
• WhMo's driving style is more rule-abiding, coming to a full stop at intersections, unlike human drivers who may roll through stops or take shortcuts. (6m34s)
• The development of self-driving cars raises interesting issues, including accountability and the potential for tickets, as the AI system can be held responsible for any infractions. (6m48s)
• Despite the challenges, self-driving cars offer benefits, such as the ability to make private phone calls during transit, and are expected to play a significant role in the future of transportation. (7m20s)
• The topic of Bitcoin's future is discussed, with an expression of excitement about it (7m25s).

Anthony Pompliano joins the show (7m36s)

• Anthony Pompliano is a guest on the show, known for his Twitter account and as an investor at Pomp Capital, a single-family office, and founder and CEO of Pomp Capital Management, an investment company that does incubation and invests in private and public equities using cash flows from privately founded businesses (7m57s).
• Pompliano has been in crypto for years and is considered one of the OGs, making him a great guest to have on the program to discuss crypto news (8m37s).
• The host mentions that Bitcoin has come back, and with Trump in office, people are feeling bullish, especially with Gensler out, and asks Pompliano about the vibes in the crypto space after what he calls a "nuclear winter" for the last four years (9m6s).
• Pompliano believes that regulation didn't really stop anything in the crypto space, citing examples of progress such as Coinbase going public and the Bitcoin ETF getting approved, and wonders how much more progress could be made without the "abrasiveness" from regulators (9m19s).
• He uses the analogy of holding a beach ball underwater in a pool to describe the potential for growth in the crypto space if the regulatory friction is removed (9m42s).

Ramp. Get $250 when you join Ramp today (9m55s)

• Ramp is a corporate card and spend management software designed to help users save time and money, with the average customer achieving 5% savings in their first year (9m57s).
• Ramp automatically captures receipts from emails, learns spending patterns, and identifies areas for cost savings, with game-changing reporting features for managing subscriptions (10m19s).
• The software allows users to issue cards to employees with built-in limits and restrictions, and also helps with tasks such as chasing down missing documentation and requesting payments (10m37s).
• Ramp is easy to use, with users able to start making payments in under 15 minutes, and new users can receive a $250 bonus for joining through a specific link (10m54s).
• Cards issued by Ramp are provided by Sutton Bank, a member of the FDIC, and are subject to terms and conditions (11m10s).
• The mention of Ramp is followed by a brief discussion of the potential impact of new SEC nominees, including Paul Atkins and Scott Bent, who are seen as being pro-Bitcoin and crypto (11m13s).

Impact of new administration on Bitcoin and crypto markets (11m48s)

• The current market sentiment is optimistic, with Bitcoin's price increasing by 50% since Trump's election, and people are buying assets due to the perceived positive impact of the new administration on the market (12m17s).
• The "vibe shift" is considered a significant signal for market impact, and the price increase is attributed to various factors, including Trump being the first pro-Bitcoin president, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and regulatory changes (12m23s).
• Companies like MicroStrategy buying billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin and rumors of Sovereign wealth funds starting to buy Bitcoin are also contributing to the positive sentiment (12m47s).
• It is challenging to make a bearish argument for Bitcoin over the next five to 10 years, and the best counterargument is difficult to identify (13m9s).
• Crypto startups benefit from the same tailwinds as Bitcoin, but the benefits may not be one-to-one, as some companies hold a portion of their balance sheet in Bitcoin or other assets, which have increased in value (13m45s).
• The increase in Bitcoin's price has positively impacted private companies invested in the crypto world, as they hold a portion of their balance sheet in assets like Bitcoin, which have increased in value (13m56s).
• Companies like Coinbase also benefit from the price increase, as more people come into the assets seeking to get rich (14m27s).
• People who initially invest in Bitcoin for speculative purposes may eventually become hardcore Bitcoiners who hold onto the asset for its bigger story and potential, rather than just speculation (14m50s).
• New investors often come from a capitalistic, self-interest standpoint, which is beneficial for businesses like Coinbase that rely on trading volume and market turnover (15m1s).
• As Bitcoin's price increases, it becomes less risky, making it more attractive to large pools of capital, such as pension funds, which can drive the price higher (15m19s).
• The current state of Bitcoin is considered the "golden years," with attractive returns compared to stocks, but this may change in the future, potentially leading to more modest growth rates (15m59s).
• There are two distinct markets: Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin being a unique asset that is separate from other cryptocurrencies (16m23s).
• Some original Bitcoin investors (OGs) have expressed concerns about the aggressive promotion of Bitcoin by individuals like Michael Saylor, which may be perceived as pumping or a Ponzi scheme (16m53s).
• The use of leverage by some investors, including Michael Saylor, is also a concern, as it can lead to significant losses if not managed properly (17m18s).
• The Bitcoin community is known for constant critique and debate among its members, with no single individual or group speaking for the entire community (17m56s).
• Bitcoin is a meritocratic free market of ideas where people can contribute and share their unique perspectives and experiences, which helps grow the body of understanding around it (18m4s).
• The open-source nature of Bitcoin allows anyone to join and contribute, bringing fresh perspectives and ideas that may not have been thought of before, and this is a permissionless process (18m47s).
• The Bitcoin community is a battlefield of ideas where people can debate and test their ideas, and also place bets on their beliefs by owning or not owning Bitcoin (19m7s).
• Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin is currently paying off, and he is often referred to as "Bitcoin Jesus" (19m25s).
• There was a moment in time when the value of MicroStrategy, a company founded by Michael Saylor, was less than the value of the Bitcoins it owned, but the market cap later recovered (19m32s).
• To understand Michael Saylor's strategy, it's essential to understand the person behind it, and getting to know him can provide insight into his approach (19m54s).

Concerns from OG Bitcoiners and Bitcoin as a marketing tool (19m58s)

• Some OG bitcoiners have concerns that mainstream adoption of Bitcoin may require elements that contradict the Bitcoin ethos, such as Wall Street involvement in financial products (20m13s).
• The inclusion of Wall Street in Bitcoin financial products seems to go against the idea of peer-to-peer electronic cash (20m21s).
• The success of Bitcoin may depend on its availability to anyone, including countries and the system, which could lead to a paradox in its adoption and ethos (20m32s).
• Startups and businesses may also play a role in the mainstream adoption and availability of Bitcoin (20m37s).

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• To deliver exceptional customer experiences, businesses need to treat their customers right with "unreasonable hospitality" as the standard, and utilize a platform like the Zendesk suite to help achieve this goal (20m40s).
• The Zendesk suite provides startups with the necessary tools to build stronger relationships with customers without increasing headcount, which is crucial for controlling costs (20m52s).
• Well-known companies such as Shopify, Squarespace, Uber, and Instacart rely on Zendesk for their customer support needs (21m7s).
• Unity, a famous company, saved $1.3 million with Zendesk's automations and self-service, and saw an 83% increase in their first response time (21m14s).
• Zendesk is easy to set up, scales with business growth, and provides metrics for easy reporting, keeping businesses agile and investor-ready (21m26s).
• The "Zendesk for Startups" program offers unlimited access to all Zendesk products, expert insights, best practices, and entry into a community of founders at no cost for the first six months (21m42s).
• Startups can sign up for the "Zendesk for Startups" program and get six months free by visiting zen.com/twist (21m57s).

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy and historical trade comparisons (22m7s)

• Bitcoin's price is considered a marketing campaign, as when the price goes up, people talk about it and speculate, leading to more people learning about and buying it, creating a reflexive cycle (22m15s).
• The price going up is important because it attracts new people, and even if some leave when the price crashes, a portion of them stick around, building a foundation of people who will never sell (22m35s).
• As the price goes up, the distance between the entry price and the current price increases, making concerns about a drawdown less significant, as people become more confident in their investment (23m4s).
• Having a percentage of one's net worth in Bitcoin is recommended, as it is expected to go up and down by 80%, but the overall trend is considered positive (23m27s).
• Critics of MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor argue that if the United States buys a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply, it could control the network, but this is not necessarily true, as owning a lot of coins does not mean controlling the network (24m6s).
• MicroStrategy's investment in Bitcoin is seen as a bold move, and Michael Saylor is credited with having the courage to execute on it, as anyone could have done it, but he was the one who figured it out and took the risk (24m34s).
• The key to success is not being right often, but making a significant amount of money when you are right, as the big wins will define one's success, not the small victories (24m55s).
• The greatest trades in history are being discussed, including George Soros and Dr. breaking the pound, and the individuals who shorted the housing market, such as John Paulson, who made around $10 billion for his investors. (25m20s)
• If Michael Saylor is correct about his investment in Bitcoin, he could make hundreds of billions, which would be the single greatest trade in corporate history, but this is based on the assumption that he is right. (25m45s)
• Saylor is fully convicted in his investment and is going "all in," which is rare for investors to do, as it's hard to say you have an idea and are going to go big on it. (26m10s)
• The criticism of Saylor's investment strategy is that he is using other people's money, having raised $3-4 billion, and if he loses, he still wins, but as the largest individual shareholder of MicroStrategy, he has control and a big percentage of the company. (26m20s)
• Saylor has also personally invested in Bitcoin, buying $250 million worth, which shows that he is putting his own cash into the same asset as the company. (26m45s)
• The concern is what could blow up, as some people think they have figured out a way to make money with no risk, and Saylor's investment strategy is being seen as a "no-lose" situation. (27m0s)

Risks of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings and price volatility (27m17s)

• There is a risk associated with MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, despite some people claiming there is no risk, and this risk should be acknowledged (27m17s).
• One extreme example of risk is if Bitcoin gets hacked and becomes worthless, which would obviously affect MicroStrategy (27m52s).
• A more realistic risk is keyman risk, where something happens to Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, which could introduce risk to the company, similar to what happened with companies that had well-known founders like Steve Jobs (28m12s).
• There are two ways to look at the premium of MicroStrategy's market cap: one is that the market cap is trading at a premium to the value of the Bitcoin held, and the other is that the company is creating value by buying Bitcoin with convertible debt, which is not counted as revenue but gives the company a multiple (28m34s).
• The risks associated with MicroStrategy's premium market cap include the premium closing and the multiple collapsing if the company is unable to buy more Bitcoin or if the stock price crashes (29m24s).
• The most important risk is that the price of Bitcoin declines sharply, which could trigger the lenders of convertible notes to request their money back, potentially leaving MicroStrategy short on cash and forcing them to sell a large amount of Bitcoin (29m54s).

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• DigitalOcean's platform enables users to scale compute power based on their precise needs without requiring a massive hardware investment, offering single GPU configurations to setups with eight GPUs (30m55s).
• The platform keeps infrastructure simple with an intuitive UI, robust documentation, and on-demand support, allowing users to focus on building their projects rather than managing infrastructure (31m6s).
• DigitalOcean is a simple, scalable, and cost-effective choice for AI startups, and approved listeners can get up to $100,000 in free credits and GPUs at special discounted rates of $1.90 per hour, a 20% discount (31m21s).
• To get started with DigitalOcean and view terms and conditions, users can visit the website at do.twist (31m36s).

Bitcoin yield, new metrics, and investment advice (31m47s)

• A scenario is discussed where Bitcoin's price would have to crash by more than 80% for it to be at a level equivalent to the debt that needs to be paid back, which is $7 billion, and Bitcoin has experienced four major drawdowns of 75% or more in the past (32m1s).
• The company in question has 400,000 Bitcoins, worth around $4 billion at $100,000 per Bitcoin, and the company's worth is around $90 billion with a debt load of $7 billion (32m20s).
• Even if Bitcoin's price were to draw down by 75%, the company would still have enough cash to pay back the debt, but it would have no other assets left (32m45s).
• There is a gap between the money owed and the value of the Bitcoins, which would allow the company to weather a 50% drawdown and still pay back the debt (32m57s).
• If the company's stock price were to decline to $20 billion due to a 50% drawdown in Bitcoin's price, the company would have to start selling some of its Bitcoins to pay off the debt, which would require selling around 35% of its Bitcoins (33m33s).
• If the company's stock price were to decline further to $25 billion, it would have to sell even more Bitcoins, potentially leading to a spiraling confidence crisis (33m47s).
• The risk of ruin is not zero, and a crash in Bitcoin's price that has not been seen in 10 plus years would be required for the company to be at risk of not being able to pay back its debt (34m20s).
• The company's current situation is compared to refinancing a home that has lost 30% of its value, where the lender would not be willing to lend at the original price (34m6s).
• The company's debt is $7 billion, and it has around $40-45 billion worth of Bitcoins, which would leave it with $33 billion worth of Bitcoins if it were to pay off the debt immediately (34m47s).
• The price of Bitcoin may draw down significantly, but this is not the biggest risk, as the owner can still pay back debt and end up with no Bitcoin but no worse off than before (35m3s).
• The risk for public companies, including Micro Strategies, lies in the fact that shareholders may lose in the midterm to short-term due to people realizing they can buy more Bitcoin for every share of Micro Strategies with no risk (35m56s).
• It is suggested that most people should buy Bitcoin directly instead of investing in Micro Strategies, as it eliminates the need to worry about high finance and multiples (36m17s).
• The concept of Bitcoin yield, which allows generating more Bitcoin per share, is new and may attract people to tap into it, but it relies on the ability to raise more capital in the future to buy Bitcoin (36m26s).
• The introduction of new metrics, such as Bitcoin yield, can be indicative of fraud or Ponzi schemes, and it may be used to manipulate people into thinking that owning shares of Micro Strategies is better than owning Bitcoin directly (36m56s).
• When allocating a million dollars, it is recommended to buy Bitcoin directly instead of investing in Micro Strategies, as it allows for owning the keys and having more control over the investment (37m37s).
• Bitcoin is considered a fascinating asset, with people on Wall Street viewing it as the riskiest asset they own, while others believe in its potential (38m6s).
• Many people in the crypto world view Bitcoin as a low-risk asset, often referring to it as "Boomer coin" due to its relatively lower risk compared to other cryptocurrencies (38m13s).
• Bitcoin's risk-reward profile makes it an attractive option for investment, especially when considering the potential for high percentage gains in other cryptocurrencies (38m24s).
• The confidence level and potential size of investment in Bitcoin are also factors that contribute to its appeal (38m36s).
• It is recommended that individuals who do not own Bitcoin should consider investing in it, as it is a relatively stable option in the crypto market (38m45s).
• A common strategy is to allocate a small percentage of one's portfolio to speculative investments, such as other cryptocurrencies or stocks, while maintaining a larger allocation to Bitcoin (38m52s).
• Some experts advise against investing in Micro Strategies and instead recommend investing in Bitcoin, citing the importance of owning one's keys and coins (39m25s).
• In fact, it is suggested that individuals who own Micro Strategies should consider selling their shares and buying Bitcoin instead, with a recommended ratio of 2:1 (39m34s).

Rationality and risk in Bitcoin investment and audience engagement (39m48s)

• There is an 80-90% chance that MicroStrategy will outperform Bitcoin, and if you put $1 million into MicroStrategy and $1 million into Bitcoin, you would get two times the value of Bitcoin in MicroStrategy's net asset value (NAV) minus debt, which is considered reasonable (39m48s).
• A money manager or capital allocator should get 10-30% of the gain, not 2x, which is considered crazy (40m35s).
• Pomp's podcast is recommended for its honesty and candidness, and he can be followed on Twitter at @APompliano (40m45s).
• Bitcoin yield is considered a red flag when people invent a metric, and instead, tracking the Bitcoin to float ratio could be a more intellectually honest approach (41m9s).
• Michael Saylor is not being intellectually honest with his relentless promotion of Bitcoin yield, which could be a recipe for disaster, but it doesn't mean he's running a Ponzi scheme or a fraud (41m41s).
• Saylor's manic enthusiasm and creation of his own metrics may indicate that he's living in his own world, and his long experience in the business may have led him to think he can see clearly into the future (42m29s).
• Saylor believes Bitcoin will go up to $100 million each, and if he were sent back in time and told that Bitcoin would trade at $10 million each, he would likely sell everything to invest in Bitcoin (42m56s).
• There is a viral video of Saylor saying he would sell his house, cars, and everything to invest in Bitcoin if he knew it would go up to $100 million each (43m9s).
• The discussion revolves around Bitcoin and the idea of investing in it, with the notion that if one believes in Bitcoin, they should own it directly rather than investing in a company like MicroStrategy, which is led by Michael Saylor, at a 2-3x premium (43m17s).
• The argument is that buying MicroStrategy shares at a 2-3x premium over the net asset value (NAV) would be unwise, as the investor would be essentially paying a premium for Saylor's management and leverage, which may not provide sufficient returns (43m49s).
• The idea of shorting MicroStrategy is dismissed, as betting against people being irrational can be risky and may result in significant losses (44m14s).
• The discussion invites the audience to provide feedback and point out any flaws in the argument, with the goal of having an open and honest discussion about the topic (44m31s).
• The conversation also touches on the idea of being open to the possibility that there may be something missing in the argument, and that it's essential to consider different perspectives and opinions (45m16s).
• The discussion is part of a regular show that airs every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and the audience is encouraged to participate and engage with the content on various platforms (45m53s).
• There is a discussion about taking a risk and having good vibes, with a mention of jcal being back and the need to be less pessimistic (46m34s).
• The idea is presented that if a capital pool does not have access to bitcoin through one of the many available methods, a micro strategy may deserve a premium, possibly around 10% to net asset value (NAV) (46m54s).
• Jason is quoted as saying that some people in the crypto space are annoyed that Bitcoin is becoming more institutionalized and integrated into Wall Street (47m1s).
• The irony is noted that Bitcoin, once seen as a revolutionary force against the system, can now be bought through traditional financial institutions like Fidelity accounts (47m12s).

SEC accreditation, private investment funds, and the Brian Thompson case (47m23s)

• Commissioner Paul Atkins from the SEC gave a speech at a conference co-sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institute on April 20th, 2007, where he discussed accreditation and a proposal to add an additional requirement for natural accredited persons to have at least $2.5 million in investments before investing in private investment funds, excluding venture capital funds (47m37s).
• The underlying premise for the commission's proposal was that these types of investments are too risky for individuals other than the very rich, and it was presumed that non-rich individuals are either unsophisticated or lack access to sophistication (49m0s).
• The commission's proposal was met with criticism, with some commenters expressing that the SEC should not presume to know more than individuals about their own life, risk tolerance, and financial sophistication, and that the proposal would prevent non-rich individuals from participating in any upside profits and gains of these funds (50m27s).
• The proposal raised concerns that it would exacerbate economic inequality, with the rich getting richer while the non-rich are left behind, and that this is not a mere rhetorical question (51m4s).
• Investors are increasingly allocating their portfolios to private investment funds as alternative investments, although this still represents a minor part of their overall allocation (51m8s).
• The SEC has been slow to implement accreditation laws, but a new individual, possibly Gary Gendler, may be able to make the process more fair and accessible to more people (51m25s).
• The concept of "sophistication" is being used instead of accreditation, which could provide a path for individuals to move from one investment bracket to another (51m37s).
• It is suggested that allocating a small portion of one's net worth to private equity funds or hedge funds can be a great way to learn and gain experience, especially compared to other common uses of money (52m16s).
• There are risks associated with investing in private investment pools, but these risks can be mitigated with proper education and caution (52m29s).
• The recent case of a celebrity promoting a cryptocurrency and facing consequences is cited as an example of the importance of being cautious when investing in alternative assets (52m42s).
• There is an update on the Brian Thompson murder case, with a 26-year-old suspect being picked up at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania with fake IDs and a gun (53m15s).
• The case is still developing, and it is unclear whether the suspect was hired by a state-sponsored actor or acted alone, with various possibilities being considered (53m41s).
• The issue of healthcare is discussed, with the perspective on it changing over time as one gets older and gains more resources (54m6s).
• The fear of not being able to afford healthcare is a pervasive anxiety for many Americans, but this fear can decrease as one becomes more affluent (54m27s).
• The experience of dealing with healthcare can be frustrating, especially for employers who have to spend a significant amount on it, with costs increasing by 10% every year (54m47s).
• As an entrepreneur, Jason did not have healthcare for 10 years, which was a challenging experience, and he had to rely on COBRA payments for a year or two (55m28s).
• The lack of agency among consumers in the healthcare system is a major problem, as they are not directly involved in the decision-making process and have no control over the costs (56m28s).
• The employer-based healthcare system is flawed, and it's essential to acknowledge the frustration and hopelessness that people feel when dealing with the system (57m2s).
• Having privilege and being aware of one's position in the system can make a difference, but it's essential to be self-aware and not take things for granted (57m11s).
• Dark memes and jokes about serious issues like murder can be disturbing and should be avoided (57m26s).
• Having good health coverage can remove a significant layer of stress, but it's essential to acknowledge the struggles that others face in the healthcare system (57m47s).
• Growing up without vision and dental insurance can be challenging, and it's essential to acknowledge the emotional toll it can take on families (58m2s).
• The American healthcare system is not working for many people, despite the country spending the most on healthcare, and there is a need for a floor of basic healthcare that everyone can access (58m53s).
• Capitalism has driven innovation in healthcare, with companies like Novo developing cancer blood tests, but it also means that people often have to "pay to play" to access these advancements (59m19s).
• There is a need for great leadership and competition to create a more efficient and effective healthcare system, and possibly having states create their own versions of universal healthcare could be a solution (59m59s).
• However, having states opt out of a national healthcare strategy could lead to an uneven market, with corporations moving to states with lower taxes and no healthcare, and people moving to states with better healthcare (1h0m51s).
• A federal solution may be necessary to create a more even market, despite the inefficiencies of the federal government, as it allows for a full collection of action and is the only way to create a national solution (1h1m10s).
• The idea of states competing with each other to create the best healthcare system could be beneficial, with people moving to states that offer the best healthcare, similar to how they might move for better education or safety (1h0m35s).
• The struggle is to balance the need for a national solution with the potential for uneven markets and the inefficiencies of the federal government (1h1m4s).
• A potential compromise for the future of Bitcoin could involve the federal government setting a floor, with each state allowed to fulfill it in their own way, creating a sense of competition among states (1h1m43s).

Reddit's new Q&A feature, “Reddit Answers” (1h1m56s)

• Reddit has introduced a new Q&A service that curates summaries of relevant conversations and details across the platform, essentially creating a search engine that keeps users on the site and leverages its own brand, which could potentially make a lot of money (1h2m7s).
• This move is seen as a contra-Google strategy, as Reddit currently has a deal with Google to allow them to ingest Reddit's materials, but by building its own service, Reddit can keep its unique content and user base within its own platform (1h2m35s).
• However, Reddit needs to be careful not to be perceived as a direct competitor by Google, as this could lead to Google downgrading Reddit's search results and reducing traffic to the site (1h3m8s).
• Despite this challenge, it is believed that Reddit would make a great search engine, as many people already use the site to search for information, and Reddit has one of the best data sets in the world for information, along with X (1h3m42s).
• In fact, Reddit was reportedly a top five search query on Google in recent years, with many people appending "Reddit" to their search queries, indicating a shift in the center of gravity for finding information online (1h4m3s).
• If Google were to try to downrank Reddit, it could potentially harm Google's search quality and ultimately benefit Reddit in the long run, as the site is too addictive and popular to be slowed down by Google alone (1h4m28s).
• Reddit's market cap is currently at $29 billion, which is seen as undervalued, and the introduction of this new Q&A service could potentially increase its value (1h4m52s).
• Reddit's data licensing business is expected to be a significant revenue stream, but the company's CFO, Jennifer Wong, and CEO, Steve Huffman, seemed relaxed about data deals during an earnings call, suggesting they might be working on something else, with the company focusing on its ads business, search, and on-platform initiatives (1h5m40s).
• Reddit's approach to its business is seen as a lesson for founders, as the company has stuck to its core identity as a community discussion platform, unlike Digg, which tried to compete with Facebook and changed its interface too much (1h6m41s).
• Reddit's use of pseudonyms allows users to maintain their reputation over time, and the company's revenue has reached $1.4 billion, with its valuation potentially reaching $100 billion, making it an attractive takeover target (1h7m34s).
• Potential acquirers of Reddit include Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with Microsoft being seen as a strong candidate due to its history of acquiring communities like GitHub, and Satya Nadella's vision for acquisitions (1h8m13s).
• Reddit is likely to be acquired in the next four years, along with other companies like Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash, with the possibility of mergers or conglomerates forming, such as Amazon plus Uber, or a combination of these companies (1h8m34s).
• Some assets, like Lift, may not have the scale to compete with giants in their industry, which could be a reason why they weren't acquired during a period of consolidation, and it might be more cost-effective for another company to recreate the asset rather than buying it (1h9m17s).
• Companies with scale, network effects, and a large customer base, such as Uber, DoorDash, and Airbnb, are more valuable in a competitive market and may be acquired in the next four years by larger companies like Amazon or Google (1h9m49s).
• A potential acquisition of Uber and DoorDash by Amazon could create a strong competitor to Weo, while Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber would make it a massive competitor to Weo due to Amazon's investments in self-driving technology (1h10m8s).
• Shopify could potentially acquire or partner with companies like Uber or DoorDash to build out its last-mile delivery business, but it might be more cost-effective to build it from scratch (1h10m36s).
• Combining Shopify, Uber, and DoorDash could create a strong competitor to Amazon, with a potential combined market capitalization of around $400 billion, which could eventually become a trillion-dollar company (1h11m0s).
• Consolidation in the industry could lead to stronger and better competitors to trillion-dollar companies like Amazon, and it might be beneficial to allow companies under $500 billion to acquire and consolidate while putting larger companies under more scrutiny (1h11m25s).

Kids Online Safety Act and social media regulation (1h12m5s)

• A bill called the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) is making its way through Congress, with the goal of protecting children's online safety, and has gained support from social media companies, including X, whose CEO Linda Yaccarino recently expressed her support for the bill (1h12m5s).
• The bill aims to increase algorithmic transparency, allow users to opt out of algorithms, and implement age verification, with a focus on protecting children under the age of 13 (1h13m5s).
• The support from X and its CEO may indicate a shift in the social media industry towards accepting regulation, particularly when it comes to protecting children online (1h13m21s).
• X is in a unique position as a social media platform, being more geared towards adults and world leaders, whereas platforms like Instagram and TikTok are more popular among younger users (1h13m56s).
• There are concerns about the impact of social media on children, with some arguing that it can be damaging to their development and that children should not be allowed on social media until they are 16 years old (1h14m49s).
• The idea of implementing age restrictions on social media is not new, with Australia having already taken steps in this direction, and some arguing that collective action is needed to protect children from the potential harms of social media (1h14m45s).
• The addictive nature of social media is also a concern, with some arguing that it is designed to be addictive and that this can have negative effects on children's social dynamics and development (1h15m22s).
• Jonathan Haidt's book discusses the negative impact of phones and devices on children, taking away time from friends, nature, sports, reading, and creativity, and suggests implementing phone lockers at schools to limit device use (1h15m49s).
• Phone lockers at schools can help kids become free from their devices, interact with each other, and blossom, as seen in schools that have implemented this system (1h16m19s).
• A fun way to reduce phone use at dinner parties is to stack phones and have the first person to touch their phone pay for dinner, known as the "JCal test" (1h16m50s).
• Another option is to have a two-minute phone break between appetizers and dinner to check for important messages (1h17m12s).
• The importance of protecting children from making irreversible decisions, such as getting tattoos or taking on student loans, before their brains are fully developed is emphasized (1h18m43s).
• The idea of treating kids differently due to their developing minds and the need for protection is discussed, drawing parallels with restrictions on experimenting with cigarettes, vapes, and cannabis (1h18m25s).
• The concept of a "duty of care" roster and algorithmic transparency is mentioned as a potential regulatory bill, but the focus shifts to the importance of protecting children (1h18m10s).
• A discussion is held about a bill that requires modifications to social media platforms with more than 10 million monthly active users, with concerns raised about the "duty of care" standard and potential aggressive content moderation (1h19m49s).
• The bill does not ban social media but rather aims to protect children from its potential harm, with some arguing that it is the responsibility of parents to make decisions about their children's social media use, rather than the federal government (1h19m47s).
• The Australian approach to social media regulation is mentioned as a possible solution, which would simplify the issue and avoid potential complications (1h20m34s).
• The topic of pornography on the internet is also discussed, with concerns raised about its availability to children and the potential impact on their brains and understanding of sexuality (1h20m44s).
• A bill in Texas is mentioned, which would require users to verify their age before accessing pornography sites, with the option to use a VPN as an alternative (1h21m51s).
• The discussion touches on the balance between freedom of speech and protecting children from harmful content, with some arguing that unlimited access to pornography for kids is not acceptable (1h22m11s).
• The discussion touches on the topic of age verification and how it can be maintained across devices, with the acknowledgment that it's a non-trivial point and there isn't a good answer yet (1h22m41s).
• Progress is being made with robots, such as Tesla's Optimus, which is now able to walk up and down hills, demonstrating exponential technological advancements (1h22m55s).
• The development of these robots is expected to accelerate with AI, allowing them to learn faster, and companies like Twist are already planning to produce millions of these devices (1h23m47s).
• Elon Musk's tweets about Optimus may indicate that the project is doing well, as he often shares updates on his most impactful business ventures (1h24m0s).
• The show will return on Wednesday with live news, and a special AI episode with Sundeep is scheduled for the next day (1h24m27s).
• The host, Jason Calacanis, thanks his producers and researcher, and invites feedback on how to improve the show, while also mentioning his presence on various social media platforms (1h24m36s).
• Jason Calacanis is also on the Blue Sky platform, although he notes that it's a bit clunky and has a small user base, but he's willing to follow people who are on the platform (1h24m53s).
• The host compares Blue Sky to a vote against X and Twitter, but notes that it has some useful features, such as better blocking functionality (1h25m7s).
• The new block system on X allows for more control over online interactions, enabling users to block others who are obnoxious and insulting but still see each other's content, while preventing participation in discussions (1h25m39s).
• The goal is to have intelligent, funny, and clever online discussions, avoiding stupid drive-by tweets, and insightful compliments are appreciated, especially when given in a "sandwich" format with constructive feedback in the middle (1h26m24s).
• The "sandwich" method of giving feedback is also useful for managers dealing with employees, as it provides a constructive way to address issues while still offering positive reinforcement (1h26m56s).
• TWiST 500 is being improved, with new changes coming on Wednesday, and the goal is to provide a list of carefully selected companies that have been thoroughly researched and understood (1h27m11s).
• The selection process for TWiST 500 involves suffering over every selection and truly understanding the businesses, which may require acts of journalism, such as contacting founders or venture capitalists for insights (1h27m24s).
• The team has resources to conduct thorough research and would love to perform random acts of journalism to provide more in-depth information (1h27m46s).