TWiST News: The Startup Redefining Sonos, Influencers, Elections and Google's next AI push | E2034

Jason and Alex kick off the show (0s)

• A strategy to create buzz for a book titled "Cautious Optimism" involved calling bookstores to request copies, leading them to order more, which is against FTC rules requiring disclosure of paid partnerships. (0s)
• Digital Ocean offers up to $100,000 in free credits for AI projects, and Cloud Devs provides an offer for hiring elite Latin American talent. (1m1s)
• Keli, a regulated predictions market, allows trading on U.S. elections with a promotional offer for new users. (1m37s)
• Jason Calacanis, a co-host, invests in English-speaking startups primarily in Silicon Valley, Austin, and New York, and discusses the importance of local investors for non-English speaking markets. (1m49s)
• Alex Wilhelm, the co-host, expresses a desire to learn another language and discusses the challenges of investing in startups from non-English speaking countries. (2m9s)

Earnings week predictions & discussion on national debt (3m18s)

• The discussion highlights the upcoming earnings week, mentioning companies like Alphabet, Snapchat, Reddit, AMD, Meta, Microsoft, DoorDash, Robinhood, Coinbase, Uber, Apple, Amazon, and Intel, with a focus on the speaker's investments in several of these companies. (3m19s)
• A thesis is presented regarding the continuation of significant government spending, regardless of the administration in power, predicting an addition of $10 trillion to the national debt over four years. (4m5s)
• It is suggested that this government spending will ultimately benefit equity holders, as money from government contracts and consumer spending will flow into equities, benefiting the top 60% of the U.S. population who own equities. (5m3s)
• The potential impact of a recession is discussed, with the belief that corporations can maintain or increase earnings by adjusting team sizes, even if consumer spending contracts. (6m29s)
• The conversation touches on the implications of adding $10 trillion to the national debt, questioning the broader economic and national impact of such an increase. (7m13s)
• There is a growing concern about the global GDP and government spending, with discussions indicating that it is becoming an acute issue. (7m27s)
• The budget was balanced under Clinton, but now the percentage of debt is at an all-time high, with interest payments becoming significantly large. (8m7s)
• Current interest payments are estimated to be $3,500 per person per year, which translates to $14,000 for a family of four. If the debt doubles over the next three administrations, this could increase to $28,000 per year for a family of four. (8m24s)
• Interest payments have increased due to rising rates, but this may change if rates come down. (8m56s)
• The federal surplus and deficit have fluctuated, with a significant collapse around 2008, a slight recovery during the later Obama years, and more recent administrations being more liberal with spending. (9m0s)

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• DigitalOcean is a cloud platform that helps startups scale their AI projects faster without the associated headaches, allowing them to accomplish tasks such as training models, building AI agents, and processing large data sets quickly (9m17s).
• DigitalOcean's GPU-powered virtual machines can be scaled up or down as needed, with options ranging from single GPU configurations to setups with eight GPUs, eliminating the need for upfront hardware investments (9m27s).
• The platform offers a simple infrastructure with an intuitive UI, robust product documentation, and on-demand support, allowing users to focus on building their projects rather than managing infrastructure (9m51s).
• DigitalOcean is a cost-effective and scalable solution, making it the best choice for startups looking to turn their AI projects into successful ventures (10m3s).
• Approved listeners can get up to $100,000 in free credits to try DigitalOcean, by visiting the website and viewing the terms and conditions (10m9s).

Mattias Scheek from Sonos joins the show (10m24s)

• Matias Scheek, associated with Sonos, is featured in a discussion about his experience in building a speaker company and successfully raising venture capital for it. (10m26s)
• The conversation highlights the challenges of raising venture capital, particularly in the hardware sector, and Matias's achievement in having his company acquired by Sonos. (10m52s)
• Matias is recognized for identifying an opportunity to improve speaker technology, which led to the creation of his startup. (11m14s)

Mattias Scheek's journey in audio technology and Sonos acquisition (11m23s)

• Matias and Timothy, passionate about audio from a young age, founded a high-end speaker company in 2013, but found the technology in speakers had not significantly evolved over the years. (11m23s)
• In 2016, they started a new company focused on innovating in the hardware space, specifically in speaker transducers, aiming to create something revolutionary. (12m58s)
• They developed a patented technology called distributed transducer suspension cones, which was granted in October 2020. This technology allows a smaller speaker to perform like a much larger one by optimizing air displacement. (13m18s)
• The innovation involves moving the magnets and coils from behind the membrane to the sides, allowing the membrane more space to move and thus displace more air, enhancing performance. (14m50s)
• The new Sonos product, the Arc Ultra Soundbar, offers a fuller sound in a compact space by utilizing large air displacement rather than a large enclosure. (15m4s)
• The Arc Ultra Soundbar, priced at $1,000, is a thin soundbar designed to fit under a TV and significantly enhances the audio experience compared to standard TV speakers. (15m45s)
• A key improvement with the soundbar is vocal and dialog clarity, which is often lacking in built-in TV speakers. (16m12s)
• The Sonos Arc Ultra includes spatial audio technology, providing a 9.1.4 surround sound experience from a single device, which is unique in the market. (16m19s)
• The 9.1.4 configuration includes nine speakers around the listener, one subwoofer, and four height-level speakers, creating an immersive audio environment. (16m50s)
• The soundbar's technology allows for a surround sound bubble effect, which was previously only achievable with much more expensive systems. (17m21s)

Challenges for hardware startups in venture capital (17m49s)

• Securing venture capital for hardware startups, particularly in the Netherlands, is challenging due to the country's limited focus on hardware compared to software and innovation. (17m55s)
• Consumer tech hardware faces additional difficulties because of the risk of knockoffs from factories, especially in regions like Shenzhen, which can produce similar products at lower costs. (18m15s)
• The financial multiples for consumer tech hardware are generally lower than those for software, making it less attractive to investors. (18m41s)
• Successful venture capital backing can occur when there is a strong "product VC fit," where the product aligns well with the interests and experiences of the venture capitalists, such as those who are audiophiles or have a personal interest in the industry. (18m56s)
• The startup in question was able to attract venture capital by presenting a disruptive innovation in the audio space, offering something significantly different from the past century's developments. (19m35s)
• At the time of fundraising, major tech companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple were focused on developing smart speakers that could integrate into living rooms, offering both functionality and high-quality sound, which aligned with the startup's goals and appealed to investors. (20m0s)

Getting acquired: The process, strategy, and life after (20m25s)

• In 2016, a company was founded by two brothers, including Matias, who began developing technology with minimal funding, using money from their previous company. (20m50s)
• Initially, they sought a small amount of capital, securing tens of thousands from the university where one of the founders studied, which helped them create a proof of concept that impressed the investors. (21m7s)
• The company continued to take small financial steps, raising amounts like 20k, 50k, and eventually 300k through convertible debt, which ultimately did not convert, allowing them to avoid giving up equity. (21m32s)
• The convertible debt arrangement allowed the founders to pay back the investment without losing equity, which can be beneficial depending on the deal, although it may not always be favorable for investors. (21m48s)

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• Cloud Devs is highlighted as the best platform for hiring top Latin American talent, offering a large pool of over 10,000 senior engineers who are rigorously vetted for communication and problem-solving skills. (22m9s)
• The platform not only provides technical talent but also fills non-technical roles such as accounting and graphic design with elite Latin American professionals. (22m28s)
• Companies like Coinbase choose Cloud Devs because the talent is matched with their time zone and is up to 80% cheaper than hiring locally while maintaining Silicon Valley standards. (22m38s)
• Cloud Devs offers an exclusive "pay what's fair" deal for a limited time, allowing users to pay what they feel the talent is worth, available through a specific link for listeners of the show. (22m53s)

Sonos' hi-fi strategy and industry issues in audio clarity (23m11s)

• The audio industry initially reacted with disbelief and skepticism to the new company's claims of producing a superior product at a lower price. This skepticism was partly due to the company's inability to demonstrate their product effectively over video conferencing. However, once in-person demonstrations were conducted, the reactions changed significantly, with industry experts expressing surprise at the quality of sound from the small speakers. (23m13s)
• The company maintained a strategy of staying in the background while keeping industry players informed of their progress. This approach involved engaging with the audio and tech industry from as early as 2019, culminating in significant attention at CES 2022, where they won the "Best of CES" award. (25m21s)
• The company's acquisition process was initiated by interest from other companies rather than actively seeking a buyer. This interest was a result of maintaining relationships and keeping potential partners and competitors informed about their developments. The acquisition process often starts with partnership discussions, which can lead to acquisition offers, as was the case with this company. (25m15s)
• The integration of unique technology, such as hard motion or sound motion technology, provides a significant competitive advantage in the audio and tech industry. This was a key factor in the acquisition by Sonos, alongside a strong cultural and product technology fit. (26m42s)
• After the acquisition by Sonos, the transition was seamless, with no break between the announcement and the integration into Sonos. The process of incorporating technology into Sonos' roadmap was different from a startup environment, but Sonos was flexible, especially with the ongoing Arc Ultra project. (27m21s)
• The decision to sell the company to Sonos was considered the right choice, particularly due to the favorable market conditions and the demand for the technology at the time. The combination of the startup's disruptive innovation and Sonos' expertise in building reliable sound experiences was seen as a successful partnership. (28m10s)
• The Sonos Arc is available for pre-order, and there is excitement about its release. (28m49s)
• Sonos supports high-resolution audio, including FLAC files, and services like Tidal are compatible with Sonos speakers. The quality of the audio source is important, and Sonos is working on its Hi-Fi strategy, although there are limitations with Bluetooth for Hi-Fi audio. (29m11s)
• There is a discussion about the challenges of audio mixing in modern media, particularly with dialogue clarity in TV shows and movies. It is suggested that the mixing might be optimized for movie theaters rather than home viewing, leading to difficulties in hearing dialogue over background noise. (30m9s)
• The use of spatial audio and dialogue enhancement technologies, such as those in the Arc Ultra, is recommended to improve dialogue clarity by providing a dedicated center channel for dialogue. (31m11s)
• The prevalence of subtitles among Gen Z and Millennials is hypothesized to be due to poor audio mixing, making it difficult to understand dialogue without them. (31m43s)
• There is a mention of a startup that has formed a partnership with Sonos, highlighting the challenges and successes in the hardware industry. The speaker expresses admiration for Sonos products, noting their elegance and functionality. (32m31s)

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• Kalshi, the world's largest prediction market, has made it legal for US citizens to trade on the outcomes of the upcoming US elections for the first time in 100 years. (33m22s)
• Prediction markets allow individuals to buy or sell contracts on future events, such as the 2024 presidential election, providing a way to hedge investments based on expected election outcomes. (33m10s)
• These markets can offer more accurate predictions than political polls, as they reflect where informed individuals are placing their money. (33m45s)
• Kalshi provides real-time election odds that fluctuate based on daily news events, such as rallies, interviews, and debates, offering a dynamic view of the election landscape. (34m22s)
• Users can receive an additional $20 with their first deposit of $100 on Kalshi's platform. (34m46s)

Voting irregularities, election security, and influencer marketing (34m57s)

• The discussion highlights the value of having live guests on the show, which adds a level of raw honesty and allows for hard questions to be asked, contributing to a more engaging and informative segment. (34m59s)
• There is a conversation about the nature of fan culture and how it can lead to tribalism, where sharp or challenging questions are often perceived as biased or hateful. This is contrasted with the belief that hard questions are essential for a meaningful discussion. (35m50s)
• The topic of voting irregularities and election fraud is addressed, with an emphasis on the complexity of the U.S. electoral system, which is decentralized across 50 states. This decentralization is seen as a strength because it makes it more difficult to hack a national election. (37m41s)
• The discussion includes insights from the Heritage database, which shows that many voting issues arise from individuals who are unaware of legal restrictions, such as felons who are not allowed to vote in certain states. (37m11s)
• The conclusion is that while there is some level of fraud in every system, the penalties and the decentralized nature of the U.S. electoral system help to minimize its impact. (37m6s)
• There is a discussion about the challenges of partisanship in national elections, particularly regarding the reluctance of some individuals to acknowledge election outcomes, such as whether Trump won or lost. This reluctance is compared to sports fans who feel their team was unfairly treated. (38m49s)
• The conversation highlights the issue of voter fraud, suggesting that even if the number of fraudulent votes were significantly higher than reported, the overall integrity of the voting system is strong, similar to the low fraud rates in credit card transactions. (39m41s)
• Concerns are raised about foreign influence in elections, with specific mentions of Russia, China, and Iran attempting to impact or influence outcomes. Despite these concerns, there is a sense of optimism about the current state of election security. (40m31s)
• The discussion touches on the partisan nature of voting rights and the role of organizations like the Heritage Foundation in creating confusion. An example is given of a misleading video that misrepresented non-citizens' intentions to vote, which was later debunked. (40m47s)
• There is a call for a national ID plan to ensure everyone has identification for voting, comparing it to the requirement of an ID for air travel. The insincerity of both political sides in addressing voting issues is criticized. (41m48s)
• The topic of influencers being paid under the table to affect elections is introduced, noting that this issue has not been addressed at the federal level, leading states to take action. This information is based on a report by journalist Cat Zakrzewski from The Washington Post. (42m10s)
• A Washington Post story highlights that influencers on platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram may be paid by political action committees (PACs) or super PACs to discuss specific issues without disclosing these payments, as there is minimal regulation at the federal level requiring such disclosures. (42m31s)
• The lack of disclosure for paid promotions by influencers contrasts with typical advertising practices, where transparency about financial interests is expected, such as when a podcast host discloses their investment in a company they promote. (43m1s)
• Historical examples of undisclosed influencer marketing include companies like Paper Post and Buzz Agents, which engaged influencers to promote products like Sony cameras and other items without revealing their commercial intent, using tactics that were considered clever yet ethically questionable. (44m1s)

Trump Rogan YouTube search issues and search engine comparison (45m14s)

• The text discusses a marketing tactic where individuals are used as props to promote products, such as taking pictures at a party with Jimmy Dean sausage and sharing them on social media. This tactic involves friends being in on the promotion without clear disclosure. (45m14s)
• Another example of a marketing strategy involves creating artificial demand for a book by calling bookstores to request copies, leading them to order more stock. This tactic is considered creative but is against FTC rules, which require disclosure of paid partnerships. (45m28s)
• The text highlights the importance of distinguishing between political and commercial speech, emphasizing the need for clear disclosures in political advertising. It mentions that political ads should have a name attached to them, similar to how major campaigns disclose their sponsorship. (46m32s)
• Texas is noted as an example of a state requiring disclosures for paid political posts, with a focus on how these disclosures should be made, whether upfront, at the end, or in audio. The importance of clear and visible disclosures is emphasized to prevent misleading practices. (47m15s)
• The text discusses the significance of transparency in affiliate marketing, using the example of the New York Times' Wirecutter, which discloses affiliate links. It contrasts this with less reputable websites that do not disclose affiliations, leading to potentially biased recommendations. (47m47s)
• The overall message is that super disclosure, or very clear and upfront disclosure, is crucial across all platforms to ensure consumers are aware of potential biases and affiliations in the content they consume. (48m31s)
• The discussion highlights the evolution of political campaigning, emphasizing the shift from email-focused strategies in 2008 to the current reliance on social media and influencers to reach voters, particularly younger and middle-aged demographics. This shift underscores the need for updated disclosure rules, which both political parties at the federal level have been reluctant to implement. (48m50s)
• Concerns are raised about the lack of transparency in influencer marketing, illustrated by an example where a third-party podcasting company, backed by RT, paid podcasters significantly more than their usual rates without questioning the source of the funds. This raises ethical questions about the influence of money on content. (49m49s)
• The text also discusses the practice of providing influencers and journalists with perks, such as paid trips and equipment, without direct payment for endorsements. This practice, known as junkets, is prevalent in industries like automotive journalism, where journalists may receive cars or luxury trips, potentially biasing their reviews. (50m21s)
• The potential for bias is further explored through the example of automotive journalists who receive extensive perks from car manufacturers, such as first-class travel and luxury accommodations, which could influence their reviews. The ethical dilemma is whether these perks compromise the independence of the journalists. (51m51s)
• Influencers are encouraged to disclose any potential biases to maintain trust with their audience, as trust is a crucial aspect of their relationship with followers. (52m31s)
• Transparency about commissions or affiliations, similar to practices by Wirecutter, is seen as an ethical approach that enhances credibility. (52m55s)

Monetization experiments on YouTube and Launch Cloud Kitchens Incubator (53m6s)

• A controversy arose when David Heinemeier Hansson from 37signals tweeted about difficulties finding the Joe Rogan interview with Donald Trump on YouTube, despite its popularity with over 30 million views in a few days. (53m6s)
• The issue highlighted concerns about YouTube's search functionality, which seems to prioritize short clips over full-length videos, potentially leading to conspiracy theories about suppression. (54m31s)
• Criticism was directed at YouTube's search algorithm, which is perceived as more focused on engagement rather than accurately finding specific videos, a problem that has persisted for years. (55m21s)
• A comparison with Google search showed that while organic web search results were accurate, YouTube's video search results were not, suggesting a flaw in YouTube's search system. (56m46s)
• There was a discussion about how certain topics, such as election interference and COVID-19, can lead to content being labeled on platforms like YouTube, but a specific video discussing these topics did not receive such labels. This raised questions about potential censorship and bias, particularly in relation to content featuring Joe Rogan. (57m36s)
• The video in question was not trending on YouTube, which led to speculation about whether this was due to a deliberate attempt to avoid controversy, especially concerning statements made by Donald Trump. There was a concern that platforms might avoid actions that could provoke political figures like Trump. (58m16s)
• A comparison was made between search results on different platforms, including Bing and DuckDuckGo, to assess if there was any bias or issue specific to YouTube or Google. Bing's search results prioritized news articles and videos from sources like the New York Times and BBC, but did not prominently feature the actual interview video. (58m47s)
• The search results on Bing and DuckDuckGo showed that the BBC was performing well in search engine optimization, appearing frequently in the top results for news related to the Trump and Rogan interview. This indicated that BBC is considered a trusted news source by these search engines. (1h0m41s)
• A test was conducted on five search platforms, including Google Video search, to find a specific clip, and four out of five searches yielded incorrect results, with only Google search providing the correct result in its organic listings (1h1m5s).
• The primary goal of these search products is not to help users find what they're looking for but to keep them engaged and watching, which can lead to increased session time and more ad clicks (1h1m27s).
• Algorithms may be designed to extend session time by making users search through multiple clips to find the original content, which can be a scary thought as it implies that algorithms are not working in the users' best interests (1h1m52s).
• The primary objectives of algorithms may be to increase revenue and session length, with providing users with what they want being a secondary or tertiary goal (1h2m18s).
• The power of subscriptions on YouTube was highlighted by the example of Joe Rogan's clip with Trump, which received 34 million views in a couple of days, largely due to shares on social media and subscribers finding it on their "For You" page (1h2m50s).
• The upcoming election has led to increased scrutiny of social media platforms and their potential role in election interference, but it's possible that algorithmic issues rather than intentional bias are the root cause of many problems (1h3m57s).
• The idea that multiple teams across different organizations, such as Microsoft, Google, and YouTube, are working together to suppress certain information or candidates is unlikely, and algorithmic issues are a more plausible explanation (1h4m34s).
• The discussion highlights the challenges with search algorithms, particularly how they prioritize trending clips and recaps over full-length content, which can frustrate users. This is evident in the way different search engines, including Brave and DuckDuckGo, handle search results. (1h4m46s)
• There is a critique of YouTube's search functionality, which is described as ineffective and frustrating, as it often provides irrelevant links and changes the search subject unexpectedly. (1h6m32s)
• It is suggested that algorithms are designed to increase user session length and maximize revenue by encouraging users to click on multiple shorter clips rather than a single long video. This is believed to be more profitable due to a higher ad load on shorter content. (1h7m6s)
• The monetization strategy on YouTube is discussed, noting that clips of Joe Rogan's content are monetized while full episodes are not, leading to more revenue from the clips. This pattern is observed in other podcasts as well, suggesting a potential link between monetization and search result prominence. (1h7m41s)
• A test is proposed to turn on monetization for a week's episodes of "This Week in Startups" on YouTube to see if it improves search results, indicating a possible correlation between monetization and search visibility. (1h8m11s)
• Travis, the creator of Uber, has a company called Cloud Kitchens, which is collaborating on a new initiative called the Launch Cloud Kitchens Incubator. This program is designed to support food entrepreneurs by providing them with investment and resources to develop and scale their cloud kitchen concepts. (1h8m32s)
• The incubator is a 14-week program that offers participants an initial investment of $50,000 and an additional $50,000 upon graduation. This financial support is intended to help entrepreneurs build and refine their food business ideas without the high costs associated with opening a traditional restaurant. (1h8m55s)
• The concept of a cloud kitchen allows entrepreneurs to test and iterate on their food offerings, such as a variety of dumplings, in a cost-effective manner. Instead of investing a million dollars in a physical restaurant, they can operate from a cloud kitchen for a fraction of the cost, enabling them to gather feedback and improve their recipes. (1h10m19s)

Google's upcoming AI model for PC browsers and cybersecurity risks (1h10m42s)

• Google is planning to release an AI model later this year that can operate a web browser, following a similar move by Anthropic. This development is reported by The Information and Bloomberg. (1h14m23s)
• The AI model aims to automate tasks within a browser, such as shopping by comparing prices across different websites or sending emails to a list of contacts. (1h15m2s)
• There are potential cybersecurity risks associated with this technology. If a hacker gains control of the AI, they could potentially execute harmful actions, such as accessing bank accounts or transferring funds. (1h15m28s)

Apple's app permissions approach and AI (1h15m52s)

• Within the next six months, there is a prediction of a major hack involving the theft of private emails, bank accounts, and cryptocurrency, raising concerns about the security implications of giving AI access to web browsers. (1h15m52s)
• There is a discussion on the importance of focusing on cybersecurity measures as AI technology advances, with hopes that companies like Anthropic and the Gemini group are considering these risks. (1h16m23s)
• Claude AI's computer interface has a list of capabilities and restrictions, such as not allowing email sending or using password managers, to mitigate risks. (1h16m52s)
• Users are advised to take precautions when using AI interfaces, such as employing a dedicated virtual machine and avoiding internet access, while also implementing best practices for security. (1h17m33s)
• There is a suggestion for a system where each website URL must be whitelisted and approved, similar to how Apple manages app permissions, to enhance security in web browsers. (1h18m30s)
• It is proposed that browsers like Chrome should have settings to allow or restrict AI actions, such as reading and sending emails, with options for user confirmations to ensure security. (1h19m24s)
• There is a discussion about whether major social platforms have the appropriate norms and trust levels in place to handle data tracking responsibly, especially considering Google's position as an advertising company. Concerns are raised about the potential risks and legal challenges faced by large companies compared to smaller ones. (1h19m53s)
• Tesla's recent earnings report highlights that while car sales are flat, the energy business is performing well. Elon Musk made a significant statement regarding the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature, indicating that if the current hardware (Hardware 3) is insufficient, Tesla will upgrade customers to Hardware 4 for free, which could potentially be a $2 billion recall. This decision reflects Tesla's strong financial position and ability to build customer goodwill. (1h20m48s)
• There are varying experiences with Tesla's FSD, with some users reporting frequent interventions and potential safety issues. The newer Hardware 4 is reportedly more powerful and capable, leading to better performance compared to Hardware 3. This difference is attributed to the improved processing power and possibly better cameras in the newer hardware. (1h21m57s)
• Tesla's Q3 earnings report also reveals significant profits from their energy storage and collection business, which is becoming an increasingly important part of the company's financial success. (1h23m12s)
• A suggestion is made to explore the topic of "crazy cars from China" in an upcoming show, highlighting innovative and unconventional car designs being developed in China. (1h23m31s)
• Some of these Chinese cars feature unique designs, such as a minivan with doors that open like subway doors and a vehicle that combines a car and a veto, which can separate from each other. (1h24m3s)
• The Zer mix, a car model expected to cost around $40,000, is mentioned as having particularly wild features. (1h24m20s)
• Several companies, including Xang GAC, SAIC, and Aero Fugia, are working on advanced electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (EVTOLs) that integrate with cars, showcasing the innovative automotive technology being developed in China. (1h24m29s)
• Viewers are encouraged to share their ideas or suggestions for the show via Twitter, with the next live show planned for Friday, although there is a possibility of an earlier show on Wednesday. (1h24m43s)