The Secrets Behind A Crumbling British Government - Dominic Cummings
01 Aug 2024 (2 months ago)
Is Multiculturalism Working?
- Dominic Cummings discusses a poll showing that 95% of Britons believe multiculturalism is not working. He attributes this to factors like terrorism, harassment of MPs, and violence in certain areas that are not widely reported by the mainstream media.
- Cummings connects the public's concerns about immigration to the Brexit campaign. He argues that the Leave campaign's focus on regaining control over immigration was a key factor in their victory. He claims that the Leave campaign predicted that Brexit would lead to a decrease in immigration, a decline in support for far-right parties, and a shift in public opinion towards a more positive view of immigrants.
- Cummings asserts that the Leave campaign's predictions have largely come true. He points to the decline of UKIP, the reduced influence of far-right parties in the UK, and the more positive attitudes towards immigrants. He contrasts this with the situation in Europe, where he argues that the problem of immigration has worsened, leading to the rise of far-right parties. However, he criticizes the Conservative government for undermining their own control over immigration after Brexit, leading to a surge in illegal immigration and a resurgence of far-right sentiment. He concludes that the government's actions have made it clear that the blame for the current immigration situation lies solely with them.
How the Tories Broke Immigration
- The Tories' immigration policy shifted dramatically after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Initially, the Vote Leave team, including Dominic Cummings, advocated for a policy that favored high-skilled immigration while significantly reducing unskilled immigration. This policy aimed to address the perceived issues of unskilled labor influx and to create time for infrastructure development. However, the Conservative government (Tories) ultimately abandoned this approach and implemented a policy that led to a massive surge in legal immigration, reaching unprecedented levels.
- Simultaneously, the government failed to effectively address illegal immigration. The rise in asylum seekers arriving by boat across the English Channel was largely attributed to the perception that the British legal system was unable to effectively process and deport asylum seekers. This created an opportunity for organized crime gangs to exploit the situation, leading to a significant increase in illegal crossings.
- The government's response to the illegal immigration crisis was ineffective and ultimately counterproductive. Instead of addressing the root causes of the problem, such as amending the Human Rights Act and deploying the Navy to stop boats from arriving, the government focused on a "fake" solution: the Rwanda plan. This plan, which involved sending asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing, was widely criticized as being impractical and inhumane. The courts ultimately ruled that the plan was a breach of human rights, further highlighting its ineffectiveness. The government's failure to address the issue effectively has led to a perception of chaos and incompetence, further damaging the Tories' reputation.
Dissecting the General Election
- The Conservative Party's downfall was a result of their focus on short-term political gain over long-term governance. They prioritized the 24/7 news cycle and their own careers within Westminster, neglecting the actual needs of the country. This led to a decline in public services, a rise in national debt, and a general sense of dissatisfaction among voters.
- The Labour Party's victory was a result of their cautious and defensive campaign strategy. They recognized that their leader, Keir Starmer, was not a charismatic figure like Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, and they avoided making unrealistic promises or trying to portray him as something he wasn't. This allowed them to capitalize on the Conservative Party's self-inflicted downfall.
- The Conservative Party's loss was a result of their own incompetence and the public's desire for change. While the Labour Party's victory was significant, it was largely driven by the public's dissatisfaction with the Conservatives. This was evident in the high levels of tactical voting, where people voted for any party that could defeat the Conservatives.
Building a Strong Opposition to Labour
- The Conservative Party is in a state of decline and is struggling to attract talent. The text argues that the party is suffering from a "one-way process of talent collapse and rot" and that it is difficult to see how it can be rejuvenated. This is due in part to the fact that the party is resistant to change and continues to rely on outdated institutions and methods.
- The decline of the Conservative Party is part of a broader trend in Western politics. The text suggests that elite talent is increasingly moving away from politics and public service and towards fields like finance, technology, and scientific research. This is because these fields offer more opportunities for innovation and success. As a result, political parties are becoming increasingly stagnant and out of touch with the needs of the electorate.
- The rise of populism is a direct consequence of the decline of traditional political parties. The text argues that voters are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the old system and are looking for alternatives. This has created an opening for populist leaders like Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, who are able to tap into this dissatisfaction and offer a fresh perspective. The text suggests that the more traditional parties continue to resist change, the more likely it is that populism will continue to grow.
Predicting the Next Few Years
- Dominic Cummings predicts a bleak future for the UK, with both the Conservative and Labour parties failing to address the country's deep-rooted problems. He believes the Tories will remain in power, but their quality has deteriorated since their last victory in 1997. He expects some improvements under Labour, but overall, the situation will remain grim.
- Cummings criticizes the UK's institutions, particularly Whitehall, for being "pathological" and destroying good initiatives. He cites examples like the closure of the successful vaccine task force and sewage monitoring program, which he believes were shut down because they were embarrassing to the established system.
- Cummings believes the UK's future hinges on whether a "subset of elite talent" will step in and challenge the current political system. He draws a parallel to the recent political changes in the US, where individuals like Elon Musk have become involved in politics to address dysfunction in Washington. He suggests that a similar movement is needed in the UK to force change and prevent the country from becoming "downstream" of American trends.
How to Attract Young Talent to Politics
- The British Civil Service suffers from a "talent ratchet" effect. Highly capable young people enter the service, but many leave between the ages of 35 and 45 due to a lack of opportunities for advancement and a perceived lack of meritocracy in the promotion system. This leads to a concentration of less capable individuals in senior positions.
- The problem is not unique to the public sector. Large organizations, including private companies like Google, can become ossified and bureaucratic over time, hindering innovation and progress. However, the private sector has a more dynamic startup ecosystem that allows for the emergence of new, more efficient organizations.
- The British government has become a "pkin" system. This means that the outward appearance of power and decision-making is largely a facade. While the Cabinet is nominally the center of power, real decisions are often made by unelected officials in the Cabinet Office, particularly the Cabinet Secretary. This shift in power has occurred because Prime Ministers have largely abdicated their authority and allowed officials to control the flow of information and decision-making.
What Was Being in Government Like?
- Dominic Cummings describes his experience working in the British government as "fundamentally depressing." He found that the system was incredibly centralized, with too much power concentrated in the hands of a few, yet it was also difficult to get things done due to a lack of executive authority for special advisors.
- Cummings criticizes the lack of interest in important issues among ministers, who were more focused on media attention. He also highlights the inefficiency of the bureaucracy, which he describes as "broken" and focused on self-preservation rather than serving the public.
- Cummings compares the government's internal workings to the TV show "Yes Minister," highlighting the disconnect between the public perception of competence and the reality of inefficiency. He acknowledges that there are pockets of excellence within the system, particularly in the armed forces, but argues that these individuals are often hampered by the bureaucracy.
- Cummings reveals that the British government relies heavily on WhatsApp for communication, even for critical decisions like announcing lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. He points out the irony of the Prime Minister's office lacking basic technology infrastructure, highlighting the disconnect between the government's spending and its technological capabilities.
- Cummings describes the government's information systems as outdated and inefficient, using the example of the NHS relying on faxes and scraps of paper during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. He highlights the urgency of modernizing these systems, as the consequences of inefficiency can be dire, as seen during the pandemic.
- Cummings concludes by noting that the COVID-19 pandemic forced the government to confront the consequences of its technological shortcomings, leading to some improvements in information systems. He argues that this experience highlighted the importance of modern tools and efficient management for effective decision-making.
The Covid Inquiry Report
- Dominic Cummings expresses his disappointment with the UK Covid-19 inquiry, stating that it has been incredibly depressing and feels like it's adding misinformation to the situation. He criticizes the inquiry for accepting contradictory statements from scientists without further investigation, and for attempting to place all blame on Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock.
- Cummings believes the inquiry is failing to address the systemic issues within the government that contributed to the pandemic response, instead focusing on individual blame and creating a narrative that is convenient for their desired outcome. He points out that the inquiry has not thoroughly questioned key officials, including the head of the Civil Contingencies Unit, and has not called on a significant number of individuals who were in critical roles during the pandemic.
- Cummings discusses his own interactions with the inquiry, highlighting the media's focus on his use of strong language in text messages, which he argues was a reflection of the urgency and pressure of the situation. He emphasizes that the actual content of his messages, which often involved criticizing the government's response to the pandemic, was largely ignored. He believes the inquiry and media are deliberately focusing on his language to distract from the systemic failures that were exposed in his messages.
Why the News is Faker Than WWE
- The news is often presented in a way that resembles a scripted performance, similar to professional wrestling (WWE). This is illustrated by the analogy of Rick Rubin, a music producer, who believes that political news should be viewed as a WWE script to understand the underlying narratives and manipulations.
- The example of President Biden's mental health demonstrates this "fake news" phenomenon. While many uninformed individuals perceived Biden as mentally unfit based on his public appearances, those in the inner circles of power, including the media, were aware of his true capabilities and downplayed his struggles. This highlights a disconnect between the public perception and the reality known by those in power.
- This disconnect creates a situation where those in power can control the narrative and manipulate public opinion. The media, which is supposed to be a watchdog, often acts as a mouthpiece for the powerful, shielding them from scrutiny and perpetuating a false reality. This is further exemplified by the delayed public acknowledgment of Biden's mental health issues, which only became apparent after a public debate with Trump.
The Current State of America
- America is in a state of political turmoil, with extreme contrasts between its technological advancements and its political landscape. The speaker believes that the involvement of Silicon Valley figures in politics is a positive sign, as it could potentially reverse the trend of talented individuals leaving politics for more stable fields.
- The speaker discusses the appointment of JD Vance as Vice President, noting that it signals a potential shift in Trump's approach to governing. He believes that Vance's connections to entrepreneurs and his belief in economic populism could lead to a more focused approach on issues important to working-class voters.
- The speaker criticizes the media's tendency towards "narrative whiplash," where narratives are abruptly reversed without accountability. He uses Kamala Harris as an example, highlighting the media's shifting opinions on her candidacy and the potential for her to be portrayed as a weak candidate despite initial positive coverage. He also points out the inconsistency in how public figures are held accountable for past statements, with some being scrutinized more harshly than others.
What if Trump Had Been Killed?
- The speaker speculates on the potential consequences if Trump had been killed during the incident. He argues that a significant portion of the population, particularly Republicans, would have viewed the event as a conspiracy rather than an act of incompetence. This would have likely led to widespread unrest and violence, similar to the reactions to the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy.
- The speaker highlights the irony of how the outcome of the event influences people's perception of its cause. He notes that the fact Trump was only grazed by the bullet makes it easier for people to accept the official narrative of incompetence, whereas a fatal outcome would have likely fueled conspiracy theories.
- The speaker expresses concern about the increasing accessibility and sophistication of drone technology. He believes that this technology will inevitably be used for domestic terrorism, making current security measures inadequate. He cites the example of the US government's ban on domestic drone production, which inadvertently opened the market for Chinese companies like DJI, now dominating the personal drone market. He fears that the government's inaction on drone security will lead to a catastrophic event.
5 Rules of How Government Really Workd
- Nuclear Weapons are Not Taken Seriously: The government prioritizes short-term, media-driven issues over long-term, critical infrastructure like nuclear weapons. This leads to a cycle of neglect, cover-ups, and escalating budgets.
- Talented People are Excluded: The civil service system prevents talented individuals from being hired, fired, or incentivized, hindering effective problem-solving and progress. Ministers have no real power over the civil service, creating a disconnect between responsibility and authority.
- Government Works Against Success Principles: The government operates on principles that are the opposite of successful organizations. It prioritizes slow, bureaucratic processes over speed and clear responsibility, hindering innovation and progress.
- MPs Focus on Media, Not Voters: MPs prioritize their media image and short-term political gains over long-term solutions and the needs of their constituents. This leads to a focus on daily news cycles and a neglect of good governance.
- Preserving Power and Budgets is the Priority: The civil service and politicians prioritize maintaining their power and budgets over serving the public. This leads to rewarding incompetence and punishing those who try to improve the system.
Being Portrayed as the Bad Guy
- Dominic Cummings acknowledges that he has been portrayed as a "nefarious" figure behind the scenes of various events, including Brexit, digital advertising, and the COVID-19 pandemic. He explains that he has always been focused on achieving his goals and has never been concerned with media attention or public perception.
- Cummings believes that focusing on media attention hinders the ability to accomplish meaningful work. He argues that while being a public figure can lead to negative consequences, such as death threats, the majority of the criticism is simply "people writing nasty things" and does not have real-world impact.
- Cummings accepts that his actions, particularly those related to Brexit, have angered many people. He believes that it is inevitable to face criticism when attempting to achieve significant change and that it is pointless to be upset about it. He encourages others in public life to adopt a similar approach and not let negativity affect them.
Benedict Cumberbatch Playing Dominic
- Dominic Cummings, a key figure in the Brexit campaign, discusses his experience with the film "Brexit: The Uncivil War," which features Benedict Cumberbatch playing him. He reveals that he hasn't watched the entire film, only a few clips, and that he initially avoided it due to the stressful nature of the Brexit campaign.
- Cummings describes the film's initial premise, which was based on the "Russia gate" conspiracy theory, but acknowledges that the screenwriter, James Graham, later changed the narrative after spending time with him and realizing the media's portrayal was inaccurate.
- Cummings recounts a memorable encounter with Cumberbatch, who visited his home to prepare for the role. He describes how Cumberbatch began to mimic his mannerisms and speech patterns, creating a surreal experience.
- Cummings reflects on the intense period leading up to the Brexit referendum, highlighting the political turmoil and the toll it took on his health. He attributes his sleep deprivation and exhaustion to the stress of the campaign, particularly during a time when his newborn child was hospitalized.
- He concludes by expressing his reluctance to revisit the events of that time, comparing it to experiencing PTSD, and explaining why he has avoided watching the film in its entirety.
Lack of Patriotism in the UK
- The speaker, who has recently moved to the US, observes a stark difference in patriotism between the UK and the US. He notes that Americans are generally more proud of their country and its values, while Brits seem to lack a similar sense of national pride. He attributes this to a shift in British intellectual culture, where being anti-British became fashionable among the elite.
- The speaker further argues that the UK's economic and cultural focus on London has led to a neglect of other regions, resulting in a decline in their vitality and a sense of disconnect from the national narrative. He points to the lack of investment in infrastructure and the concentration of power in London as contributing factors to this disparity.
- The speaker advocates for a more decentralized system of governance, potentially through federalism, to empower local communities and address the imbalance in power and resources. He believes that this shift would not only revitalize the UK's regions but also foster a more engaged and representative political system.
What Dominic Does Now
- Current Activities: Cummings spends his time reading history, writing on his Substack blog, and consulting on projects that interest him. He emphasizes that he is not driven by money and only takes on projects he believes in.
- Future Plans: Cummings is considering creating a new political organization to challenge the current system. He believes the current political landscape is "depressing" and that the existing parties are failing to represent the needs of the voters.
- Goals: The new organization would aim to attract support from voters who are dissatisfied with the current political system and bring in talented individuals from outside of politics. Cummings hopes to build a force that can push for significant change and potentially even lead to a new political party in the future. He acknowledges the difficulty of such an endeavor but draws inspiration from the success of Brexit, which was initially seen as improbable.
How Much of a Failure Was Boris?
- Dominic Cummings argues that Boris Johnson missed a historic opportunity to enact significant change during his time as Prime Minister.
- Cummings claims that after the Conservative Party's landslide victory in 2019, Johnson initially embraced the idea of reforming the government, economy, and healthcare system. However, he ultimately abandoned this plan.
- Cummings attributes this change of heart to two factors: Johnson's belief that he could easily defeat Labour leader Keir Starmer in the next election without major reforms, and his girlfriend's desire to have her own allies in positions of power.
Where to Find Dominic
- The speaker expresses appreciation for the insights provided by Dominic Cummings, acknowledging the rarity of such candid explanations of government workings.
- The speaker directs viewers to Dominic Cummings' Substack for further information, providing the website address: dominiccummings.substack.com.
- The speaker expresses enthusiasm for future collaborations with Dominic Cummings, potentially discussing the US election in a future episode.