Housing is for Babies | Mike Moffatt | TEDxStratford

The Changing Landscape of Southern Ontario Living

• In Southern Ontario, significant changes have occurred over the last decade, including high home prices, higher rents, and migration from one community to another, with the underlying reasons for these changes being somewhat mysterious (42s).
• Children born in Southern Ontario in the 1960s followed a typical life trajectory, growing up, graduating from high school, attending college or university, getting their first job in Toronto, and eventually moving to a larger home in areas like North York or Scarborough in the early 1990s when they started families (51s).
• Those born in the 1970s, including the speaker, followed a similar path, moving to Toronto after graduation, living in high-rises, and later seeking more space when starting families, but found areas like North York and Scarborough had become expensive (2m32s).
• As a result, families from the 1970s cohort moved to areas like Mississauga, Brampton, or Pickering, which were more affordable, using the "drive until you qualify" approach, where they would drive as far away from the city as needed to qualify for a home (3m39s).
• This pattern of migration has continued, with families seeking more affordable housing options while remaining relatively close to Toronto, contributing to changes in demographics and the economy (4m8s).

Generational Shifts and Housing Affordability

• The babies born in the 1980s are now starting to enter the housing market, following a similar trajectory as previous cohorts (4m15s).
• Home prices in Toronto have become increasingly expensive since around 2010-2012, affecting the life trajectory of individuals who graduate from high school, attend college or university, and get a job in Toronto, but now struggle to afford housing in the city (4m22s).
• As a result, many are moving to surrounding areas like Hamilton, Ashawa, and further out, leading to longer commutes, often 45-50 minutes, and sometimes driving to the city (4m50s).
• For individuals born in the early 1990s, the traditional model of moving to Toronto for work and housing has broken down due to the city's high expense, with some opting to stay in smaller communities or commute from farther away (5m11s).
• By 2016, the city of Toronto and the GTA had become very expensive due to population growth and difficulties in creating housing, leading fewer people to move to Toronto, with some still doing so with help from parents (5m21s).
• This cohort faces challenges, including trouble saving for a down payment, and many forgo having kids or drive further to afford housing, with some migrating to smaller communities like Brantford, Stratford, and Tilsonburg (6m3s).

Pandemic-Induced Migration and its Impact

• The pandemic has brought about changes, including the advent of work-from-home, making it more attractive for people to move to smaller communities farther away from downtown Toronto (7m12s).
• Data shows a pattern of migration out of downtown Toronto, particularly among people in their late 20s and early 30s, with children under the age of five, to areas much farther away, not typically considered commuting distance (8m0s).
• The most common age to move out of the city of Toronto is zero, with kids under 12 months, and recent years have seen a net migration of 100,000 people per year (8m36s).
• People are moving out of cities like Toronto and the Peel region, and New York region, to other parts of the province, dramatically changing the face of smaller communities across Ontario (8m52s).

Growth in Smaller Communities: A Double-Edged Sword

• Smaller communities like Lucan, just outside of London, are experiencing rapid growth, with Lucan being one of the fastest-growing communities in Canada (9m11s).
• This growth has brought both positive and negative changes, including the revitalization of main streets and the reopening of rural schools that were previously at risk of closure (9m33s).
• The influx of young, educated, and motivated families has also brought economic benefits, as these individuals often prefer to work locally, even for lower wages, to avoid long commutes (10m51s).
• However, this growth also brings challenges, including displacement and gentrification, as people earning Toronto wages can bid up the price of real estate, leading to the displacement of existing, lower-income residents (11m52s).
• Investors are buying up homes, renovating them, and selling them to middle-class families from the GTA, further exacerbating the displacement issue (12m18s).
• As a result, tent communities are starting to appear in smaller communities, highlighting the issue of homelessness, which, although not new, is becoming more visible (12m41s).
• The issue of homelessness is becoming more visible, and it affects infrastructure, such as roads, sewers, and water treatment plants, requiring communities to make decisions about investing hundreds of millions of dollars in these areas (13m5s).

Navigating Growth and Preserving Community Character

• The biggest challenge and opportunity in addressing this issue is understanding its cultural implications for a city and its impact on the quality of life, as people in smaller communities fear change (13m28s).
• Some communities in Southern Ontario are grappling with how to deal with population growth and out-migration while maintaining their community's character and vibe (13m59s).
• Mississippi Mills, Ontario, is an example of a community facing these pressures, with young middle-class families moving there due to being priced out of Ottawa (14m29s).
• The mayor and community groups in Mississippi Mills held a meeting to discuss how to balance growth with preserving the community's character, and this type of discussion can help ease community buy-in and create conditions for co-creating the future (14m48s).
• One approach to addressing this issue is to recognize that growth is inevitable and then focus on managing it in a way that preserves the community's character and creates the desired conditions (16m7s).
• A key step in this process is to identify what makes a community unique and valuable to its residents, which can be done through a visioning exercise where people share their thoughts and ideas (16m45s).
• Communities often have a list of things they care about, such as nature, Main Street, and community events, and growth can be used to preserve and enhance these things (17m11s).
• By identifying what a community likes, growth can be used to build off of that, such as making community events more inclusive and encouraging newcomers to participate (17m36s).
• Trails and nature areas can be maintained and upgraded with the help of volunteers and newcomers, which can be encouraged through community engagement (18m0s).
• Appealing to people's self-interest can be done in a positive way, such as building housing that meets the needs of current community members, like downsizing options (18m45s).
• Current community members may be looking for smaller housing options, such as two-bedroom homes with backyards and no stairs, which can be considered when building new housing (19m24s).
• Growth can be seen as helpful for current community members if it provides them with opportunities to downsize, get more appropriate housing, and ensure their kids are not priced out (19m52s).

Rethinking Planning for Sustainable Growth

• The traditional planning model, where a project is presented to the community and they react to it, is not effective, and a new approach is needed (20m21s).
• A new approach to planning could involve backing up the process and engaging the community earlier, rather than presenting a finished project and asking for feedback (20m46s).
• A visioning exercise can be conducted to determine where new homes should be built in a community, considering the expected growth of 2,000 to 3,000 families over the next 10 years (21m5s).
• This exercise presents a set of trade-offs, such as building more housing in existing neighborhoods, which could have benefits but also drawbacks like increased traffic (21m25s).
• Another option is building on the edge of town, which would result in the loss of green space and require more infrastructure, potentially leading to higher property taxes (21m38s).
• The goal is to facilitate growth in a way that creates climate-friendly, family-friendly, and middle-class communities (22m36s).
• Growth in many Southern Ontario communities is largely driven by younger families seeking a place to raise their children (22m16s).
• Instead of framing the discussion as "growth or no growth," it should be about the type of growth and how to achieve it in a way that benefits the community (21m57s).